Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)

Post Reply 
The 20 with a chance
Author Message
bullet Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 38,384
Joined: Apr 2012
Reputation: 1270
I Root For: Texas, UK, UGA
Location:
Post: #1
The 20 with a chance
Others have said there are only about 20 teams with a realistic chance at a national championship. There are numbers that back that up.

In the 35 years since BYU won an MNC, who would never be voted #1 today, 17 teams have won AP national championships. Doesn't take an intimate knowledge of college football to guess at least 15 of the 17-the 9 bluebloods-USC, Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Michigan, Ohio St., Penn St., Notre Dame and Alabama; the 3 Florida upstarts-Miami, FSU, Florida; 3 SEC powers-LSU, Auburn, Tennessee; Clemson and Colorado. There are 3 other schools-Georgia, Oregon and Washington (who has a coaches' poll MNC in that period) that make up the 20 with a realistic chance.

The 17 schools have all 35 championships, 88 of 105 top 3 finishes and 133 of 175 top 5 finishes. When you throw in the other 3, it is 97 of 105 top 3 finishes and 148 of 175 top 5 finishes.

Each of these 20 schools has at least 4 top 5 finishes. No other school has more than 2. Each has at least 2 top 3 finishes. Only TCU among the remaining schools has 2. And only 6 other schools even have one top 3 in the last 35 years (the others are Oklahoma St., Stanford, Utah (who was overrated because of a typical Alabama fold in a non-title bowl game), Michigan St., Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech--who has a coaches' poll MNC).

So if you start with these 20, you have a pretty good chance of getting, not only the champ, but the entire top 3. It has opened up a little. From 1985-2007, these schools had all but 2 of the top 3 finishes. There have been 6 interlopers in the last 12 years.

The domination goes even further back than 1985, going back to the 60s. 1965 was the last time 2 schools outside this group made the top 3 and there were only 7 from 1966 to 1984. Only BYU in 1984 and Pitt in 1976 have AP titles outside the group going all the way back to 1960.
01-14-2020 10:56 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


SumItUp Offline
Bench Warmer
*

Posts: 154
Joined: Feb 2012
Reputation: 13
I Root For: Liberty
Location:
Post: #2
RE: The 20 with a chance
Georgia Tech and Colorado were both national champions in 1990.
01-14-2020 11:01 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Hokie4Skins Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 2,426
Joined: Nov 2010
Reputation: 103
I Root For: Ed O'Bannon
Location:
Post: #3
RE: The 20 with a chance
In the BCS/CFP era, the only teams that have won national titles had at least two top 10 recruiting classes in the four years prior to that team winning it all. 2000 Oklahoma is the lone exception, but they did have one top 10 class prior to winning. Using that formula, teams with a chance to win it all next season:

Clemson
Alabama
Georgia
Ohio State
LSU
Texas A&M
Florida
Auburn
Oklahoma
Texas
Michigan
USC
Notre Dame
(This post was last modified: 01-14-2020 11:23 AM by Hokie4Skins.)
01-14-2020 11:22 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


quo vadis Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 33,351
Joined: Aug 2008
Reputation: 853
I Root For: USF/Georgetown
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Post: #4
RE: The 20 with a chance
(01-14-2020 10:56 AM)bullet Wrote:  Others have said there are only about 20 teams with a realistic chance at a national championship. There are numbers that back that up.

In the 35 years since BYU won an MNC, who would never be voted #1 today, 17 teams have won AP national championships.

OK, but isn't it that way in hoops too? Duke and UNC and Kentucky and Michigan State and a few others win every year and other schools never sniff a title?

IIRC, in that same time frame, 1985 to present, 19 different teams have won the hoops title.

This suggests that the format for picking a champ doesn't really impact this. The same teams dominate because of brand value, fan interest, money, etc.
(This post was last modified: 01-14-2020 12:18 PM by quo vadis.)
01-14-2020 12:17 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
dbackjon Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 7,078
Joined: May 2010
Reputation: 238
I Root For: NAU/Illini
Location:
Post: #5
RE: The 20 with a chance
(01-14-2020 12:17 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-14-2020 10:56 AM)bullet Wrote:  Others have said there are only about 20 teams with a realistic chance at a national championship. There are numbers that back that up.

In the 35 years since BYU won an MNC, who would never be voted #1 today, 17 teams have won AP national championships.

OK, but isn't it that way in hoops too? Duke and UNC and Kentucky and Michigan State and a few others win every year and other schools never sniff a title?

IIRC, in that same time frame, 1985 to present, 19 different teams have won the hoops title.

This suggests that the format for picking a champ doesn't really impact this. The same teams dominate because of brand value, fan interest, money, etc.

Just going back 5 years, of the 20 total Final Four spots, only Michigan State, Villanova and North Carolina were there more than once, two each

Such Major Conference Power houses like Texas Tech, Virginia, Auburn, South Carolina, Oregon, Wisconsin have all made it.

Plus Gonzaga and Loyola.

So nothing like football.
01-14-2020 12:32 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


quo vadis Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 33,351
Joined: Aug 2008
Reputation: 853
I Root For: USF/Georgetown
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Post: #6
RE: The 20 with a chance
(01-14-2020 12:32 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(01-14-2020 12:17 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-14-2020 10:56 AM)bullet Wrote:  Others have said there are only about 20 teams with a realistic chance at a national championship. There are numbers that back that up.

In the 35 years since BYU won an MNC, who would never be voted #1 today, 17 teams have won AP national championships.

OK, but isn't it that way in hoops too? Duke and UNC and Kentucky and Michigan State and a few others win every year and other schools never sniff a title?

IIRC, in that same time frame, 1985 to present, 19 different teams have won the hoops title.

This suggests that the format for picking a champ doesn't really impact this. The same teams dominate because of brand value, fan interest, money, etc.

Just going back 5 years, of the 20 total Final Four spots, only Michigan State, Villanova and North Carolina were there more than once, two each

Such Major Conference Power houses like Texas Tech, Virginia, Auburn, South Carolina, Oregon, Wisconsin have all made it.

Plus Gonzaga and Loyola.

So nothing like football.

Good point about the Final 4, but the issue here was national titles, and it's 19 vs 17 in that 35 year time frame.
01-14-2020 12:34 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Hokie Mark Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 17,776
Joined: Sep 2011
Reputation: 702
I Root For: VT, ACC teams
Location: Charlotte, NC
Post: #7
RE: The 20 with a chance
If you want to get to 20 teams you can still include every team which has either won or even played for a national championship in the BCS or CFP eras:

[Image: BCSorCFPteams.png]

Championship Game Appearances, BCS or CFP

Alabama
Auburn
Clemson
Florida
Florida State
Georgia
LSU
Miami
Nebraska
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oregon
Tennessee
Texas
USC
Virginia Tech

That's 17 teams - choose 3 more "blue bloods" to get to 20 (e.g. Michigan, Penn State) and call it a day...
(This post was last modified: 01-14-2020 01:04 PM by Hokie Mark.)
01-14-2020 01:03 PM
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


dbackjon Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 7,078
Joined: May 2010
Reputation: 238
I Root For: NAU/Illini
Location:
Post: #8
RE: The 20 with a chance
(01-14-2020 12:34 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-14-2020 12:32 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(01-14-2020 12:17 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-14-2020 10:56 AM)bullet Wrote:  Others have said there are only about 20 teams with a realistic chance at a national championship. There are numbers that back that up.

In the 35 years since BYU won an MNC, who would never be voted #1 today, 17 teams have won AP national championships.

OK, but isn't it that way in hoops too? Duke and UNC and Kentucky and Michigan State and a few others win every year and other schools never sniff a title?

IIRC, in that same time frame, 1985 to present, 19 different teams have won the hoops title.

This suggests that the format for picking a champ doesn't really impact this. The same teams dominate because of brand value, fan interest, money, etc.

Just going back 5 years, of the 20 total Final Four spots, only Michigan State, Villanova and North Carolina were there more than once, two each

Such Major Conference Power houses like Texas Tech, Virginia, Auburn, South Carolina, Oregon, Wisconsin have all made it.

Plus Gonzaga and Loyola.

So nothing like football.

Good point about the Final 4, but the issue here was national titles, and it's 19 vs 17 in that 35 year time frame.


but you can't say the other team don't sniff a title. Butler was close, Texas Tech was, Gonzaga was, etc.
01-14-2020 01:22 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
IWokeUpLikeThis Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 5,126
Joined: Jul 2014
Reputation: 233
I Root For: NIU, Chicago St
Location: South Side
Post: #9
RE: The 20 with a chance
(01-14-2020 01:03 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  If you want to get to 20 teams you can still include every team which has either won or even played for a national championship in the BCS or CFP eras:

[Image: BCSorCFPteams.png]

Championship Game Appearances, BCS or CFP

Alabama
Auburn
Clemson
Florida
Florida State
Georgia
LSU
Miami
Nebraska
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oregon
Tennessee
Texas
USC
Virginia Tech

That's 17 teams - choose 3 more "blue bloods" to get to 20 (e.g. Michigan, Penn State) and call it a day...

This map puts in perspective how impressive Virginia Tech and Michigan State were at their peaks. From a “brand value” perspective they look like Waldos in that list, but still managed to fight for the top as non-bluebloods.
01-14-2020 01:35 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


dbackjon Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 7,078
Joined: May 2010
Reputation: 238
I Root For: NAU/Illini
Location:
Post: #10
RE: The 20 with a chance
(01-14-2020 12:34 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-14-2020 12:32 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(01-14-2020 12:17 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-14-2020 10:56 AM)bullet Wrote:  Others have said there are only about 20 teams with a realistic chance at a national championship. There are numbers that back that up.

In the 35 years since BYU won an MNC, who would never be voted #1 today, 17 teams have won AP national championships.

OK, but isn't it that way in hoops too? Duke and UNC and Kentucky and Michigan State and a few others win every year and other schools never sniff a title?

IIRC, in that same time frame, 1985 to present, 19 different teams have won the hoops title.

This suggests that the format for picking a champ doesn't really impact this. The same teams dominate because of brand value, fan interest, money, etc.

Just going back 5 years, of the 20 total Final Four spots, only Michigan State, Villanova and North Carolina were there more than once, two each

Such Major Conference Power houses like Texas Tech, Virginia, Auburn, South Carolina, Oregon, Wisconsin have all made it.

Plus Gonzaga and Loyola.

So nothing like football.

Good point about the Final 4, but the issue here was national titles, and it's 19 vs 17 in that 35 year time frame.

In a twenty year time frame:

12 different schools won titles
24 different schools played in the NCG
38 schools made at least one Final Four

7 (not counting UConn were not in a power conference at the time
01-14-2020 02:05 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Hokie Mark Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 17,776
Joined: Sep 2011
Reputation: 702
I Root For: VT, ACC teams
Location: Charlotte, NC
Post: #11
RE: The 20 with a chance
(01-14-2020 01:35 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(01-14-2020 01:03 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  If you want to get to 20 teams you can still include every team which has either won or even played for a national championship in the BCS or CFP eras:

[Image: BCSorCFPteams.png]

Championship Game Appearances, BCS or CFP

Alabama
Auburn
Clemson
Florida
Florida State
Georgia
LSU
Miami
Nebraska
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oregon
Tennessee
Texas
USC
Virginia Tech

That's 17 teams - choose 3 more "blue bloods" to get to 20 (e.g. Michigan, Penn State) and call it a day...

This map puts in perspective how impressive Virginia Tech and Michigan State were at their peaks. From a “brand value” perspective they look like Waldos in that list, but still managed to fight for the top as non-bluebloods.

No doubt - VT is nowhere near the "brand" of, say, LSU. That said, it's doggone hard to crack into the playoffs, much less the actual championship game! (I would like to see the Hokies get back at least one more time, though...)
01-14-2020 02:13 PM
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 




User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2020 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
We allow third-party companies to serve ads and/or collect certain anonymous information when you visit our web site. These companies may use non-personally identifiable information (e.g., click stream information, browser type, time and date, subject of advertisements clicked or scrolled over) during your visits to this and other Web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services likely to be of greater interest to you. These companies typically use a cookie or third party web beacon to collect this information. To learn more about this behavioral advertising practice or to opt-out of this type of advertising, you can visit http://www.networkadvertising.org.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2020 MyBB Group.