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The 20 with a chance
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The 20 with a chance
Others have said there are only about 20 teams with a realistic chance at a national championship. There are numbers that back that up.

In the 35 years since BYU won an MNC, who would never be voted #1 today, 17 teams have won AP national championships. Doesn't take an intimate knowledge of college football to guess at least 15 of the 17-the 9 bluebloods-USC, Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Michigan, Ohio St., Penn St., Notre Dame and Alabama; the 3 Florida upstarts-Miami, FSU, Florida; 3 SEC powers-LSU, Auburn, Tennessee; Clemson and Colorado. There are 3 other schools-Georgia, Oregon and Washington (who has a coaches' poll MNC in that period) that make up the 20 with a realistic chance.

The 17 schools have all 35 championships, 88 of 105 top 3 finishes and 133 of 175 top 5 finishes. When you throw in the other 3, it is 97 of 105 top 3 finishes and 148 of 175 top 5 finishes.

Each of these 20 schools has at least 4 top 5 finishes. No other school has more than 2. Each has at least 2 top 3 finishes. Only TCU among the remaining schools has 2. And only 6 other schools even have one top 3 in the last 35 years (the others are Oklahoma St., Stanford, Utah (who was overrated because of a typical Alabama fold in a non-title bowl game), Michigan St., Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech--who has a coaches' poll MNC).

So if you start with these 20, you have a pretty good chance of getting, not only the champ, but the entire top 3. It has opened up a little. From 1985-2007, these schools had all but 2 of the top 3 finishes. There have been 6 interlopers in the last 12 years.

The domination goes even further back than 1985, going back to the 60s. 1965 was the last time 2 schools outside this group made the top 3 and there were only 7 from 1966 to 1984. Only BYU in 1984 and Pitt in 1976 have AP titles outside the group going all the way back to 1960.
01-14-2020 10:56 AM
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SumItUp Offline
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RE: The 20 with a chance
Georgia Tech and Colorado were both national champions in 1990.
01-14-2020 11:01 AM
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Hokie4Skins Offline
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RE: The 20 with a chance
In the BCS/CFP era, the only teams that have won national titles had at least two top 10 recruiting classes in the four years prior to that team winning it all. 2000 Oklahoma is the lone exception, but they did have one top 10 class prior to winning. Using that formula, teams with a chance to win it all next season:

Clemson
Alabama
Georgia
Ohio State
LSU
Texas A&M
Florida
Auburn
Oklahoma
Texas
Michigan
USC
Notre Dame
(This post was last modified: 01-14-2020 11:23 AM by Hokie4Skins.)
01-14-2020 11:22 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: The 20 with a chance
(01-14-2020 10:56 AM)bullet Wrote:  Others have said there are only about 20 teams with a realistic chance at a national championship. There are numbers that back that up.

In the 35 years since BYU won an MNC, who would never be voted #1 today, 17 teams have won AP national championships.

OK, but isn't it that way in hoops too? Duke and UNC and Kentucky and Michigan State and a few others win every year and other schools never sniff a title?

IIRC, in that same time frame, 1985 to present, 19 different teams have won the hoops title.

This suggests that the format for picking a champ doesn't really impact this. The same teams dominate because of brand value, fan interest, money, etc.
(This post was last modified: 01-14-2020 12:18 PM by quo vadis.)
01-14-2020 12:17 PM
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RE: The 20 with a chance
(01-14-2020 12:17 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-14-2020 10:56 AM)bullet Wrote:  Others have said there are only about 20 teams with a realistic chance at a national championship. There are numbers that back that up.

In the 35 years since BYU won an MNC, who would never be voted #1 today, 17 teams have won AP national championships.

OK, but isn't it that way in hoops too? Duke and UNC and Kentucky and Michigan State and a few others win every year and other schools never sniff a title?

IIRC, in that same time frame, 1985 to present, 19 different teams have won the hoops title.

This suggests that the format for picking a champ doesn't really impact this. The same teams dominate because of brand value, fan interest, money, etc.

Just going back 5 years, of the 20 total Final Four spots, only Michigan State, Villanova and North Carolina were there more than once, two each

Such Major Conference Power houses like Texas Tech, Virginia, Auburn, South Carolina, Oregon, Wisconsin have all made it.

Plus Gonzaga and Loyola.

So nothing like football.
01-14-2020 12:32 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: The 20 with a chance
(01-14-2020 12:32 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(01-14-2020 12:17 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-14-2020 10:56 AM)bullet Wrote:  Others have said there are only about 20 teams with a realistic chance at a national championship. There are numbers that back that up.

In the 35 years since BYU won an MNC, who would never be voted #1 today, 17 teams have won AP national championships.

OK, but isn't it that way in hoops too? Duke and UNC and Kentucky and Michigan State and a few others win every year and other schools never sniff a title?

IIRC, in that same time frame, 1985 to present, 19 different teams have won the hoops title.

This suggests that the format for picking a champ doesn't really impact this. The same teams dominate because of brand value, fan interest, money, etc.

Just going back 5 years, of the 20 total Final Four spots, only Michigan State, Villanova and North Carolina were there more than once, two each

Such Major Conference Power houses like Texas Tech, Virginia, Auburn, South Carolina, Oregon, Wisconsin have all made it.

Plus Gonzaga and Loyola.

So nothing like football.

Good point about the Final 4, but the issue here was national titles, and it's 19 vs 17 in that 35 year time frame.
01-14-2020 12:34 PM
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Hokie Mark Offline
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RE: The 20 with a chance
If you want to get to 20 teams you can still include every team which has either won or even played for a national championship in the BCS or CFP eras:

[Image: BCSorCFPteams.png]

Championship Game Appearances, BCS or CFP

Alabama
Auburn
Clemson
Florida
Florida State
Georgia
LSU
Miami
Nebraska
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oregon
Tennessee
Texas
USC
Virginia Tech

That's 17 teams - choose 3 more "blue bloods" to get to 20 (e.g. Michigan, Penn State) and call it a day...
(This post was last modified: 01-14-2020 01:04 PM by Hokie Mark.)
01-14-2020 01:03 PM
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dbackjon Online
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RE: The 20 with a chance
(01-14-2020 12:34 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-14-2020 12:32 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(01-14-2020 12:17 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-14-2020 10:56 AM)bullet Wrote:  Others have said there are only about 20 teams with a realistic chance at a national championship. There are numbers that back that up.

In the 35 years since BYU won an MNC, who would never be voted #1 today, 17 teams have won AP national championships.

OK, but isn't it that way in hoops too? Duke and UNC and Kentucky and Michigan State and a few others win every year and other schools never sniff a title?

IIRC, in that same time frame, 1985 to present, 19 different teams have won the hoops title.

This suggests that the format for picking a champ doesn't really impact this. The same teams dominate because of brand value, fan interest, money, etc.

Just going back 5 years, of the 20 total Final Four spots, only Michigan State, Villanova and North Carolina were there more than once, two each

Such Major Conference Power houses like Texas Tech, Virginia, Auburn, South Carolina, Oregon, Wisconsin have all made it.

Plus Gonzaga and Loyola.

So nothing like football.

Good point about the Final 4, but the issue here was national titles, and it's 19 vs 17 in that 35 year time frame.


but you can't say the other team don't sniff a title. Butler was close, Texas Tech was, Gonzaga was, etc.
01-14-2020 01:22 PM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Online
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RE: The 20 with a chance
(01-14-2020 01:03 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  If you want to get to 20 teams you can still include every team which has either won or even played for a national championship in the BCS or CFP eras:

[Image: BCSorCFPteams.png]

Championship Game Appearances, BCS or CFP

Alabama
Auburn
Clemson
Florida
Florida State
Georgia
LSU
Miami
Nebraska
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oregon
Tennessee
Texas
USC
Virginia Tech

That's 17 teams - choose 3 more "blue bloods" to get to 20 (e.g. Michigan, Penn State) and call it a day...

This map puts in perspective how impressive Virginia Tech and Michigan State were at their peaks. From a “brand value” perspective they look like Waldos in that list, but still managed to fight for the top as non-bluebloods.
01-14-2020 01:35 PM
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dbackjon Online
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RE: The 20 with a chance
(01-14-2020 12:34 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-14-2020 12:32 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(01-14-2020 12:17 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-14-2020 10:56 AM)bullet Wrote:  Others have said there are only about 20 teams with a realistic chance at a national championship. There are numbers that back that up.

In the 35 years since BYU won an MNC, who would never be voted #1 today, 17 teams have won AP national championships.

OK, but isn't it that way in hoops too? Duke and UNC and Kentucky and Michigan State and a few others win every year and other schools never sniff a title?

IIRC, in that same time frame, 1985 to present, 19 different teams have won the hoops title.

This suggests that the format for picking a champ doesn't really impact this. The same teams dominate because of brand value, fan interest, money, etc.

Just going back 5 years, of the 20 total Final Four spots, only Michigan State, Villanova and North Carolina were there more than once, two each

Such Major Conference Power houses like Texas Tech, Virginia, Auburn, South Carolina, Oregon, Wisconsin have all made it.

Plus Gonzaga and Loyola.

So nothing like football.

Good point about the Final 4, but the issue here was national titles, and it's 19 vs 17 in that 35 year time frame.

In a twenty year time frame:

12 different schools won titles
24 different schools played in the NCG
38 schools made at least one Final Four

7 (not counting UConn were not in a power conference at the time
01-14-2020 02:05 PM
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Hokie Mark Offline
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RE: The 20 with a chance
(01-14-2020 01:35 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(01-14-2020 01:03 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  If you want to get to 20 teams you can still include every team which has either won or even played for a national championship in the BCS or CFP eras:

[Image: BCSorCFPteams.png]

Championship Game Appearances, BCS or CFP

Alabama
Auburn
Clemson
Florida
Florida State
Georgia
LSU
Miami
Nebraska
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oregon
Tennessee
Texas
USC
Virginia Tech

That's 17 teams - choose 3 more "blue bloods" to get to 20 (e.g. Michigan, Penn State) and call it a day...

This map puts in perspective how impressive Virginia Tech and Michigan State were at their peaks. From a “brand value” perspective they look like Waldos in that list, but still managed to fight for the top as non-bluebloods.

No doubt - VT is nowhere near the "brand" of, say, LSU. That said, it's doggone hard to crack into the playoffs, much less the actual championship game! (I would like to see the Hokies get back at least one more time, though...)
01-14-2020 02:13 PM
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