(08-01-2019 02:00 PM)33laszlo99 Wrote: Nevermind the the G5 football programs. How many of those universities will even exist ten years from now. (No, not global warming.) The hideous student loan racket will cave in upon itself and these schools will have to actually earn their place in the market.
... so far, so good ...
Quote: ... Take a long look at the MAC. See any essential academic stalwarts that we just can't do without? Miami's nice, but essential? Naaah.
This is where it goes off the rails. Yes,
take a long look at the MAC. Which of these schools would be in serious peril if there was a collapse of the student loan racket, without some other student funding system taking it's place? You obviously didn't even
take a long look at the MAC if your list of "academic stalwarts" started with Miami and ignored Buffalo, the sole AAU member in the MAC. So let's start with Buffalo and work our way East ...
In Ohio, Akron might be in a bit of bother ... as they already are ... but Miami, Ohio, Kent, Bowling Green, Toledo were well ensconced quite a long time before student loans were a serious funding source. Altogether they'd have more alumni in Ohio than OSU. The idea that they are going to get the ax in ten year's time is a bit silly. Have to make some painful adjustments ... sure. Shut down? Not on that time scale.
Seems like you could add CMU, WMU and Ball State to that list. EMU is not at threat of shutting down but it's one school that would do well to have some FB success to make its case easier if it has to call on its alumni to help save the program in some Michigan academic policy fight.
Sh!t tends to roll downhill ... if someone posits that the share of University enrollments falls by 25% over the next ten years, that's going to shut down quite a substantial number of institutions ... but it's not going to be the kind of Universities that were in the MAC as of 1990 that are going to bear the brunt of those shutdowns.
Also, to keep the overseas students money train going, Whiskey, OSU, TSUN, Purdue and Illinois have to maintain their position among the top 100 on the Shanghai list, so they aren't just going to drop their enrollment standard to maintain their current in-state enrollment numbers, in response to a shrinking pool of applicants ... they'll nudge the enrollment standard down, but also allow the in-state enrollment numbers to shrink, so their
share of the applicant pool won't increase as fast as it might ...
... so while the schools the next step and two down from there will face a double squeeze from a smaller pool of applicants and more second-choice applicants getting their first choice, it won't be as severe at the MAC levels as it will be the next several steps down, where a larger number of their second-choice applicants will be getting their first-choice enrollment in the MAC levels of Universities.