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Where will the g5 be in 2026
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Where will the g5 be in 2026
(08-02-2019 11:57 AM)zoocrew Wrote:  
(07-30-2019 11:56 PM)Rob3338 Wrote:  
(07-30-2019 05:02 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(07-30-2019 04:28 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-30-2019 03:50 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Overwhelmingly likely exactly where it is now.

But if the G5 has fewer schools in 2026, IMO it will almost surely be because some schools could not afford the cost of constant $25m subsidies for football and dropped out, not because some got promoted to the P5.

If there are defections from the Big 12, and the remaining 6 or 7 schools refill by adding 4 to 7 of the existing G5 we will have a tweener conference that will be stronger than the AAC. If that happens I think there will be consolidation into a G4 and possibly even a G3.

There is as much stratification within the G5 as there is within the P5 and between the two.

I could easily see Cincinnati, Houston, South Florida, Central Florida and possibly Memphis getting the call up, and I think the metrics are there for East Carolina if they aren't too much of an outlier.

At that point I think the AAC becomes the best of the rest and CUSA and/or the Sunbelt goes away.

But this only happens if there is movement from the Big 12. Otherwise it's status quo.

I'd think Temple would get the call before ECU.

I agree with either Temple, or BYU joining Cincy, Houston the Florida twins and perhaps Memphis. ECU seems a distant outsider.

Yeah I’d guess Temple is a near lock if West Virginia is left in the Big 12. Especially if their new coach can continue their recent success so they can keep building their program. Don’t see anyway ECU is involved.

Honestly if I had to guess what changes I’d say UT and OU leave along with 2 tag alongs putting the Big 12 at 6 and then they add 6 teams from the American so they can get to 12 and have divisions. Don’t see BYU involved in any scenario.

UCF, USF, Cincy, Temple, Houston, Memphis

I expect that year the playoff gets expanded to 8 as well. I could see ESPN getting fully invested in this tweener Big 12 and propping them up so much that they get 1 team in the 8 team playoff almost yearly.


This seems a plausible scenario.
08-03-2019 07:04 PM
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Jjoey52 Online
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Post: #42
Where will the g5 be in 2026
As long as the football programs at the elite schools make money, they will continue.


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08-03-2019 08:19 PM
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Post: #43
RE: Where will the g5 be in 2026
(08-02-2019 11:57 AM)zoocrew Wrote:  
(07-30-2019 11:56 PM)Rob3338 Wrote:  
(07-30-2019 05:02 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(07-30-2019 04:28 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-30-2019 03:50 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Overwhelmingly likely exactly where it is now.

But if the G5 has fewer schools in 2026, IMO it will almost surely be because some schools could not afford the cost of constant $25m subsidies for football and dropped out, not because some got promoted to the P5.

If there are defections from the Big 12, and the remaining 6 or 7 schools refill by adding 4 to 7 of the existing G5 we will have a tweener conference that will be stronger than the AAC. If that happens I think there will be consolidation into a G4 and possibly even a G3.

There is as much stratification within the G5 as there is within the P5 and between the two.

I could easily see Cincinnati, Houston, South Florida, Central Florida and possibly Memphis getting the call up, and I think the metrics are there for East Carolina if they aren't too much of an outlier.

At that point I think the AAC becomes the best of the rest and CUSA and/or the Sunbelt goes away.

But this only happens if there is movement from the Big 12. Otherwise it's status quo.

I'd think Temple would get the call before ECU.

I agree with either Temple, or BYU joining Cincy, Houston the Florida twins and perhaps Memphis. ECU seems a distant outsider.

Yeah I’d guess Temple is a near lock if West Virginia is left in the Big 12. Especially if their new coach can continue their recent success so they can keep building their program. Don’t see anyway ECU is involved.

Honestly if I had to guess what changes I’d say UT and OU leave along with 2 tag alongs putting the Big 12 at 6 and then they add 6 teams from the American so they can get to 12 and have divisions. Don’t see BYU involved in any scenario.

UCF, USF, Cincy, Temple, Houston, Memphis

I expect that year the playoff gets expanded to 8 as well. I could see ESPN getting fully invested in this tweener Big 12 and propping them up so much that they get 1 team in the 8 team playoff almost yearly.

You don't need 12 members to have divisions anymore....
08-03-2019 08:38 PM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Where will the g5 be in 2026
(08-03-2019 08:38 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(08-02-2019 11:57 AM)zoocrew Wrote:  Yeah I’d guess Temple is a near lock if West Virginia is left in the Big 12. Especially if their new coach can continue their recent success so they can keep building their program. Don’t see anyway ECU is involved.

Honestly if I had to guess what changes I’d say UT and OU leave along with 2 tag alongs putting the Big 12 at 6 and then they add 6 teams from the American so they can get to 12 and have divisions. Don’t see BYU involved in any scenario.

UCF, USF, Cincy, Temple, Houston, Memphis

I expect that year the playoff gets expanded to 8 as well. I could see ESPN getting fully invested in this tweener Big 12 and propping them up so much that they get 1 team in the 8 team playoff almost yearly.

You don't need 12 members to have divisions anymore....

You never needed 12 members to have divisions, what you used to need was 12 members for the division champions to have a CCG.

But for that set of schools with the particular WVU island situation, two divisions of 6 makes a bit of sense.
08-04-2019 09:24 AM
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Stugray2 Online
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Post: #45
RE: Where will the g5 be in 2026
(08-04-2019 09:24 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  You never needed 12 members to have divisions, what you used to need was 12 members for the division champions to have a CCG.

But for that set of schools with the particular WVU island situation, two divisions of 6 makes a bit of sense.

The SBC has Divisions and CCG with 10 schools.
08-04-2019 01:53 PM
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zoocrew Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Where will the g5 be in 2026
(08-04-2019 09:24 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(08-03-2019 08:38 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(08-02-2019 11:57 AM)zoocrew Wrote:  Yeah I’d guess Temple is a near lock if West Virginia is left in the Big 12. Especially if their new coach can continue their recent success so they can keep building their program. Don’t see anyway ECU is involved.

Honestly if I had to guess what changes I’d say UT and OU leave along with 2 tag alongs putting the Big 12 at 6 and then they add 6 teams from the American so they can get to 12 and have divisions. Don’t see BYU involved in any scenario.

UCF, USF, Cincy, Temple, Houston, Memphis

I expect that year the playoff gets expanded to 8 as well. I could see ESPN getting fully invested in this tweener Big 12 and propping them up so much that they get 1 team in the 8 team playoff almost yearly.

You don't need 12 members to have divisions anymore....

You never needed 12 members to have divisions, what you used to need was 12 members for the division champions to have a CCG.

But for that set of schools with the particular WVU island situation, two divisions of 6 makes a bit of sense.

Yup keep some rivalry’s intact with 2 distinct division and they’d want to get back to 8 conference games likely.
(This post was last modified: 08-04-2019 03:32 PM by zoocrew.)
08-04-2019 03:31 PM
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Post: #47
RE: Where will the g5 be in 2026
Except for minor movements like UConn going independent (already announced), San Jose State dropping to FCS (unlikely) or Hawaii going independent, the G5 will be the same in 2026.
08-04-2019 03:36 PM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #48
RE: Where will the g5 be in 2026
(08-04-2019 01:53 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  
(08-04-2019 09:24 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  You never needed 12 members to have divisions, what you used to need was 12 members for the division champions to have a CCG.

But for that set of schools with the particular WVU island situation, two divisions of 6 makes a bit of sense.

The SBC has Divisions and CCG with 10 schools.

Yup, "used to" is past tense and pretty strongly implies it ain't that way no more.

But the SBC has a 10/12 structure ... the "New Big 12" would more likely opt for a 12/12 structure with twelve FB/BBall members.
08-05-2019 01:55 AM
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zoocrew Offline
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Post: #49
RE: Where will the g5 be in 2026
(08-05-2019 01:55 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(08-04-2019 01:53 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  
(08-04-2019 09:24 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  You never needed 12 members to have divisions, what you used to need was 12 members for the division champions to have a CCG.

But for that set of schools with the particular WVU island situation, two divisions of 6 makes a bit of sense.

The SBC has Divisions and CCG with 10 schools.

Yup, "used to" is past tense and pretty strongly implies it ain't that way no more.

But the SBC has a 10/12 structure ... the "New Big 12" would more likely opt for a 12/12 structure with twelve FB/BBall members.

Yeah minimum getting back to 12 teams if they lose Texahoma.
08-05-2019 01:57 PM
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Stugray2 Online
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Post: #50
RE: Where will the g5 be in 2026
B12 probably will never go back to 12. It's an issue of dilution, both of distributions and and also of product quality.

They really don't want to take a "City U" (Cincy, Houston, Louisville, Rose rejected Memphis), nor a directional school (UCF, USF), nor an urban private that doesn't have top 10 athletic potential (Temple, Tulane, Rice), and they don't want overlapping Texas recruiting schools (Houston, SMU, Rice, maybe also Tulane). They are a bunch of "State" schools and flagship U of (8 of the 10). The only two Rose winners not on that "prefer not to go there" list were BYU and Colorado State, and CSU has some issues with support level that put them in the "prefer not to go there" list. Really only BYU is left standing, and they have a T9 concern.

I honestly think you can sort the prefer not to go there list sort it a bit, giving UCF, Houston and Cincy a but more stature than Colorado State and USF, but they all sit behind BYU in a comprehensive analysis.

Dilution concept goes beyond football and basketball product, to institutional. KU and UT would prefer not to be in the same conference with directional school like UCF nor a city school like Houston or Cincy. If they absolutely have to, to be back at 10 they will, but not until their backs are against the wall. The per school value of all these schools to the media is less than the existing members, so they will not want to add an 11th or 12th who bring down the average payout.

For these reasons the B12 will stay at 10 probably until 2031
08-05-2019 03:37 PM
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Post: #51
RE: Where will the g5 be in 2026
(08-05-2019 03:37 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  B12 probably will never go back to 12. It's an issue of dilution, both of distributions and and also of product quality.

They really don't want to take a "City U" (Cincy, Houston, Louisville, Rose rejected Memphis), nor a directional school (UCF, USF), nor an urban private that doesn't have top 10 athletic potential (Temple, Tulane, Rice), and they don't want overlapping Texas recruiting schools (Houston, SMU, Rice, maybe also Tulane). They are a bunch of "State" schools and flagship U of (8 of the 10). The only two Rose winners not on that "prefer not to go there" list were BYU and Colorado State, and CSU has some issues with support level that put them in the "prefer not to go there" list. Really only BYU is left standing, and they have a T9 concern.

I honestly think you can sort the prefer not to go there list sort it a bit, giving UCF, Houston and Cincy a but more stature than Colorado State and USF, but they all sit behind BYU in a comprehensive analysis.

Dilution concept goes beyond football and basketball product, to institutional. KU and UT would prefer not to be in the same conference with directional school like UCF nor a city school like Houston or Cincy. If they absolutely have to, to be back at 10 they will, but not until their backs are against the wall. The per school value of all these schools to the media is less than the existing members, so they will not want to add an 11th or 12th who bring down the average payout.

For these reasons the B12 will stay at 10 probably until 2031

Louisville's not on the table anymore.
08-05-2019 04:19 PM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #52
RE: Where will the g5 be in 2026
(08-05-2019 03:37 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Dilution concept goes beyond football and basketball product, to institutional. KU and UT would prefer not to be in the same conference with directional school like UCF nor a city school like Houston or Cincy.

I'm not sure where the enrollment level is where you stop being a "mere directional school" in the eyes of college Presidents, but I think it's south of 60K.
08-06-2019 08:31 PM
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Post: #53
RE: Where will the g5 be in 2026
Who cares what KU or UT prefers
08-06-2019 08:35 PM
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RE: Where will the g5 be in 2026
(08-05-2019 03:37 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  B12 probably will never go back to 12. It's an issue of dilution, both of distributions and and also of product quality.

They really don't want to take a "City U" (Cincy, Houston, Louisville, Rose rejected Memphis), nor a directional school (UCF, USF), nor an urban private that doesn't have top 10 athletic potential (Temple, Tulane, Rice)

-Temple is a 40k+ size PUBLIC school not private

-The Big 12 was all over a “City U” in Pittsburgh

But don’t let facts get in the way of your argument.
08-06-2019 08:39 PM
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JHS55 Online
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RE: Where will the g5 be in 2026
Stugray you clearly have no idea what your talking about here especially when referencing Houston in this kind of realignment garbage talk involving the b12
(This post was last modified: 08-07-2019 05:13 AM by JHS55.)
08-07-2019 05:11 AM
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RE: Where will the g5 be in 2026
(08-07-2019 05:11 AM)JHS55 Wrote:  Stugray you clearly have no idea what your talking about here especially when referencing Houston in this kind of realignment garbage talk involving the b12

We have absolute "proof" they will never take a "former SWC, fallen from the top ranks" school like Houston ... in the "fact" that they never took TCU.
08-08-2019 02:09 AM
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Stugray2 Online
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Post: #57
RE: Where will the g5 be in 2026
(08-07-2019 05:11 AM)JHS55 Wrote:  Stugray you clearly have no idea what your talking about here especially when referencing Houston in this kind of realignment garbage talk involving the b12

Not correct. Houston has a shot after Texas and Oklahoma are gone. A very good shot. They appear to sit 3rd or 4th in the pecking order.

The metrics clearly rate BYU far far ahead of everyone else. But they do not add anything to the current value per school of the B12 (they don't hurt it either), but T9 LGBT issues surfaced at the wrong time in 2016. They have adjusted things a bit, so in 2025, with Oklahoma gone they may get in on need. But if Oklahoma goes, as most observers think, then BYU will get the first serious look over.

There is a considerable gap to UCF, the next school, and the third one Houston. But these two are a good bit ahead of the others (Colorado State, Cincy, USF, and those further down the list SMU, Tulane, Rice, Temple). If Texas leaves I think both move into the likely add.

But if you look at the value of the programs, both are very far behind TCU. The valuation for TCU is much higher, and they are established, and were established at the time they were taken in the B12 as a Texas A&M replacement. Being in DFW also helped because they were the top school in that market. Houston does not enjoy that, being so close to Texas A&M. TCU has a $39M football budget and a $17M basketball budget. Houston has a $14.2M football budget and a $5.3M basketball budget. TCU got 44.7K attending each football game, 6.6K attending MBB, while Houston had 32.7K and 3.7K respectively (UCF 34.8K and 4.6K, while BYU was 56.6K and 14.2K ... a similar gap appears in ticket sales, BYU gets more revenue than UCF and Houston combined at the turnstiles).

BYU is not much different than West Virginia, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Kansas State and Oklahoma State in terms of numbers. But it's a pretty significant drop down to get to UCF and Houston.

Mind you Houston and UCF are the strongest G5 in terms of support who got roses from the B12 in 2016. (SDSU, Memphis, ECU and Fresno State have good numbers as well but were rejected for low AI or in SDSU's case distance; they set the AI bar fairly low, you just had to be the same as the 5 schools I listed above to get a rose).

USF seems supposedly to be sitting 3rd according to the Dude. But when I look at the numbers they come out extremely weak in donations, and they need to be 4x what they are now for B12 consideration. $10M is a fair threshold to indicate you have enough financial support, $2.5M just isn't close. So I put Houston 3rd.

It is my view that Oklahoma is near dead certain to leave in 2025 for the B1G or SEC. Texas is more like 50-50 in 2025 (but dead certain in 2031). If Texas stays it's BYU or nobody in 2025 -- the B12 can probably survive quite well with just 9 schools. But if Texas goes, and possibly Kansas as well, then the B12 will want to add 2 or 3 schools to get back to 10. I see the order as:

1. BYU
// bit of a gap
2. UCF
3. Houston

If you consider that a poor chance for Houston with 2-3 openings likely (if not in 2025 then in 2031), well we are not on the same page.
08-12-2019 03:28 AM
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JHS55 Online
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Post: #58
RE: Where will the g5 be in 2026
I prefer Houston to stay in the AAC
All of the potential growth in college football is in the g5 ranks, the A5 is now losing attendance and this looks like a trend for the A5 while the g5 is striving to trend up
08-12-2019 06:38 AM
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Post: #59
RE: Where will the g5 be in 2026
(07-30-2019 03:49 PM)ArQ Wrote:  
(07-30-2019 03:12 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  In the same place as now ?
Mybe a few less teams
Mybe even a few more teams will be added from the A5
I have my bucket list

G5 will lose 3 to 5 top teams to P5.
22

Nope, none of the schools left are worth $40 million to a TV contract.

The only play I see is the Big 12 implodes or the Big 12 is desperate to get into Florida and they take the FL Twins.
(This post was last modified: 08-12-2019 06:56 AM by TexanMark.)
08-12-2019 06:53 AM
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RE: Where will the g5 be in 2026
(08-12-2019 06:38 AM)JHS55 Wrote:  I prefer Houston to stay in the AAC
All of the potential growth in college football is in the g5 ranks, the A5 is now losing attendance and this looks like a trend for the A5 while the g5 is striving to trend up

Houston will be stuck with the new AAC media deal for 12 years. What looks good right now will be viewed as chicken feed compared to the P5 schools in the not too distant future.
08-12-2019 09:52 AM
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