NIU v Fresno

Who makes it and why?

Neither. They both will lose a game.

Not sure NIU has the remaining schedule to overtake Fresno State if they win out.

Neither school really has much of a schedule.

I think Fresno. I think NIU gets tripped up in one of their last few games. Fresno gets Boise presumably at home for CCG. I don't think they lose there.

11-1 UCF will pass both in the BCS poll. So Neither.

(11-04-2013 01:29 PM)curtis0620 Wrote:  11-1 UCF will pass both in the BCS poll. So Neither.

Thing is with that Fresno could easily get up to #12 and automatic that way. A lot of the teams above them will lose at least 1 more time and some 2 more times at least. Fresno will do some more passing.

UCF gets the AAC's final automatic bid if they win.

(11-04-2013 01:33 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  UCF gets the AAC's final automatic bid if they win.

that's not what Curtis is saying. If UCF passes Fresno, and Fresno isn't top 12, Fresno isn't automatic(UCF is either one).

Please. Fresno or Northern Ill will be Top 12 if they go 13-0.

I wouldn't say that's a lock... There's already like 6-8 teams that if they even lose another game would be in top 12 guaranteeed ahead of them. There are some reasonable scenarios where it'd be nearly impossible for them to get top 12.

(11-04-2013 01:52 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I wouldn't say that's a lock... There's already like 6-8 teams that if they even lose another game would be in top 12 guaranteeed ahead of them. There are some reasonable scenarios where it'd be nearly impossible for them to get top 12.

They are already 16 and 18. And they have 5 weeks to move up. There are 10 games left between teams 1-15. So 10 losses guaranteed ahead of them where they have a chance to move up.

Besides, they are both ahead of Louisville (20), UCF (21) and Houston (31) who are the likely American champs.

(11-04-2013 02:01 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  

(11-04-2013 01:52 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I wouldn't say that's a lock... There's already like 6-8 teams that if they even lose another game would be in top 12 guaranteeed ahead of them. There are some reasonable scenarios where it'd be nearly impossible for them to get top 12.

They are already 16 and 18. And they have 5 weeks to move up. There are 10 games left between teams 1-15. So 10 losses guaranteed ahead of them where they have a chance to move up.

Besides, they are both ahead of Louisville (20), UCF (21) and Houston (31) who are the likely American champs.

There may be 10 games left- but like for instance Oregon/Stanford. The loser will remain ahead of them.

Also they have to worry about teams passing them from behind.

And, lets say UCF beats Houston this week, watch a really strange thing happen. Watch ESPN start to pimp up UCF and the AAC.

NIU still has Ball State, Toledo, and WMU on their schedule plus the MAC East champ. Fresno has Wyoming, New Mexico, SJSU, and most likely Boise State left. I'm not sure if NIU can overtake them with that, but it'll be close. As of now the computers give the edge to the Huskies.

(11-04-2013 02:05 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-04-2013 02:01 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  

(11-04-2013 01:52 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I wouldn't say that's a lock... There's already like 6-8 teams that if they even lose another game would be in top 12 guaranteeed ahead of them. There are some reasonable scenarios where it'd be nearly impossible for them to get top 12.

They are already 16 and 18. And they have 5 weeks to move up. There are 10 games left between teams 1-15. So 10 losses guaranteed ahead of them where they have a chance to move up.

Besides, they are both ahead of Louisville (20), UCF (21) and Houston (31) who are the likely American champs.

There may be 10 games left- but like for instance Oregon/Stanford. The loser will remain ahead of them.

Also they have to worry about teams passing them from behind.

And, lets say UCF beats Houston this week, watch a really strange thing happen. Watch ESPN start to pimp up UCF and the AAC.

THIS. They may hate us and our 1 year left in the AQ with Big East leftovers, but if pimping UCF gets them above Fresno and NIU, then they could ship UCF off to Phoenix to play the champ from the P5 conference without a CCG and have 3 intriguing match-ups left with the Orange, Sugar, and Rose and all full of P5 schools. Sounds like a good enough reason for ESPN to turn UCF into their darling if it looks like we will win out.

(11-04-2013 01:06 PM)USAFMEDIC Wrote:  Not sure NIU has the remaining schedule to overtake Fresno State if they win out.

NIU has BSU and Toledo left that could beat them.
In the MCCG they might get BGSU, who is decent.

Fresno is 14 and Northern Ill is 15 in the latest BCS Poll. Fresno is VERY close to 12th in terms of poll points.

As I said earlier, if they both go undefeated, one of them will finish in the Top 12.

Guaranteed.

While I don't have a problem with Fresno St or NIU going to the Fiesta Bowl, I will say that I think UCF is underrated. Does anyone doubt that UCF beats either Fresno or NIU if they played?

(11-04-2013 01:01 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  NIU v Fresno

Who makes it and why?

Probably Fresno they will likely remain ranked higher if both should go unbeaten and Fresno should be favored in their remaining games. NIU still has to play a very good Ball State team.

(11-10-2013 11:17 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  While I don't have a problem with Fresno St or NIU going to the Fiesta Bowl, I will say that I think UCF is underrated. Does anyone doubt that UCF beats either Fresno or NIU if they played?

Oh - Fresno and Northern Illinois are vastly overrated. There's no way they are 14th or 15th in the nation. And they will be smoked by the Big 12 rep in the Fiesta Bowl.

In my personal power ratings (that are adjusted for margin of victory in addition to SOS), Fresno St is 41 and Northern Illinois is 48.

I would make UCF a 10-12 point favorite over either on a neutral field.