I know making a BCS game gets us and the MWC lots of money, but if we play Baylor in the Fiesta, they'll probably beat us 66-31 or something like that.

Say we go 12-0 and don't make the top 12 and UCF does, is it possible for us to go to another bowl better than the Vegas Bowl?

(11-11-2013 03:26 AM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote:  I know making a BCS game gets us and the MWC lots of money, but if we play Baylor in the Fiesta, they'll probably beat us 66-31 or something like that.

Say we go 12-0 and don't make the top 12 and UCF does, is it possible for us to go to another bowl better than the Vegas Bowl?

Keep winning, and you are Top 12 in the BCS poll for sure. Probably Top 10.

You are 14th, a fraction of a BCS point out of 12th.

13 UCLA and 12 Okla St have several tough games left.

9 Missouri plays 11 A&M. 8 Clemson plays 10 South Carolina. And 7 Auburn has to play 1 Alabama.

As for your question, no. You will be limited to your conference bowl ties if you don't qualify for the BCS.

(11-10-2013 11:17 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  While I don't have a problem with Fresno St or NIU going to the Fiesta Bowl, I will say that I think UCF is underrated. Does anyone doubt that UCF beats either Fresno or NIU if they played?

YES

I don't know that either Fresno or nIU finishes unbeaten.

Like JR said, NIU still has to play Ball St. who is no pushover.

Margin of victory isn't reliable. NIU has been pulling their starters early in the 3rd quarter the past 3 games. NIU could've scored into the 70s and maybe 80s if they wanted to. They went into the victory formation on EMU's 5 yard line late in the 4th because an EMU player was shot the previous week.

Everyone on ESPN is talking about UCF's impressive win at Penn State, but NIU's win at Iowa is more impressive. Penn State has just beaten the combined 0-18 B1G dregs but Iowa beat #25 Minnesota and took Ohio State to the 4Q at the Horseshoe. Don't be surprised if Iowa finishes 8-4 and that looks like an impressive win going into the CCGs. Someone might reply that Louisville was a good win for UCF, but where has Louisville proven themselves this year? By beating Kentucky?

NIU and Fresno are tied in the computers right now, but NIU is about to pull ahead. Remaining opponents and their BCS rankings:

NIU
Ball State 31
Toledo 49
WMU 114

Fresno
New Mexico 106
San Jose State 71

Possible CCG opponents:
Buffalo 42
Bowling Green 81

Boise 49
Utah State 66

(11-04-2013 01:32 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-04-2013 01:29 PM)curtis0620 Wrote:  11-1 UCF will pass both in the BCS poll. So Neither.

Thing is with that Fresno could easily get up to #12 and automatic that way. A lot of the teams above them will lose at least 1 more time and some 2 more times at least. Fresno will do some more passing.

I don't see fresno getting to 12 even with them at 14 after last week

(11-11-2013 02:46 PM)Max Power Wrote:  NIU and Fresno are tied in the computers right now, but NIU is about to pull ahead.

Doesn't matter unless NIU gets far, far ahead of Fresno in computerland.

Computers are only one-third of the BCS. Harris is one-third, coaches' poll is one-third. Fresno is 299 points ahead in Harris and 201 in the coaches' poll. That's 2.49 places ahead in Harris and 3.35 places ahead in coaches'. To overcome that, NIU would need to have a computer average that is at least 5.84 places ahead of Fresno.

To put it another way: Both have a computer average of 14.0 this week. If both keep winning, Fresno should move up to about 12.0 on the computers, which is likely when the Mizzou-TAMU and Clemson-South Carolina losers drop.

If Fresno's final computer rating is 12.0, and the poll gap remains the same, NIU will have to be right around 6.0 -- i.e., rated 6th best in FBS by the computer average -- to pass Fresno in the BCS.

Fresno has a better shot. NIU has a very tough game against Ball State this week.

(11-11-2013 03:15 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(11-11-2013 02:46 PM)Max Power Wrote:  NIU and Fresno are tied in the computers right now, but NIU is about to pull ahead.

Doesn't matter unless NIU gets far, far ahead of Fresno in computerland.

Computers are only one-third of the BCS. Harris is one-third, coaches' poll is one-third. Fresno is 299 points ahead in Harris and 201 in the coaches' poll. That's 2.49 places ahead in Harris and 3.35 places ahead in coaches'. To overcome that, NIU would need to have a computer average that is at least 5.84 places ahead of Fresno.

To put it another way: Both have a computer average of 14.0 this week. If both keep winning, Fresno should move up to about 12.0 on the computers, which is likely when the Mizzou-TAMU and Clemson-South Carolina losers drop.

If Fresno's final computer rating is 12.0, and the poll gap remains the same, NIU will have to be right around 6.0 -- i.e., rated 6th best in FBS by the computer average -- to pass Fresno in the BCS.

You're right, but you're also assuming the human polls remain static. NIU plays a Ball State team on ESPN2 Wednesday that the coaches and Harris pollsters rank in the top 30; meanwhile, Fresno is idle. It will be interesting to see what jump NIU gets out of it. If it's not much then NIU in all likelihood needs a Fresno loss.

#15 NIU went to a BCS bowl last year and played #12 Florida St and it wasn't pretty.

Florida St outgained NIU by almost 300 yards. Florida St was favored by 14 and won by 21.

There will be a bias in favor of Fresno this year (in the human polls) just by virtue of NIU's performance last year. The old saying "fool me once . . .

In addition, Fresno St averages nearly twice as many fans per game than NIU. I'm sure the bowls would much prefer Fresno, and it's funny how the bowls often get what they want.

(11-11-2013 06:33 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  #15 NIU went to a BCS bowl last year and played #12 Florida St and it wasn't pretty.

Florida St outgained NIU by almost 300 yards. Florida St was favored by 14 and won by 21.

There will be a bias in favor of Fresno this year (in the human polls) just by virtue of NIU's performance last year. The old saying "fool me once . . .

In addition, Fresno St averages nearly twice as many fans per game than NIU. I'm sure the bowls would much prefer Fresno, and it's funny how the bowls often get what they want.

So you are saying Clemson should be DQ'd from consideration?

I watched that Orange Bowl. NIU defense kept it pretty close. If Lynch doesn't throw that INT when NIU was driving and only down 17-10, we might be having a different conversation right now.

IMO both Fresno State and NIU deserve a BCS bid. I would love a Fresno-NIU NC game.

(11-04-2013 02:01 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  

(11-04-2013 01:52 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I wouldn't say that's a lock... There's already like 6-8 teams that if they even lose another game would be in top 12 guaranteeed ahead of them. There are some reasonable scenarios where it'd be nearly impossible for them to get top 12.

They are already 16 and 18. And they have 5 weeks to move up.

But they have almost reached the limit of how far up they can move. Nobody with their schedules will crack the top 10.

Best bet is to stay ahead of UCF. That's the real ticket. If it comes down to having to be top 12, that is very iffy.

Not impressed tonight with Northern Illinois. Or Ball St. They would finish 4th at best in the American this year.

I think Fresno will win out and finish at #12. UCF likely also gets in. Phoenix would have a real interesting game with Baylor/Fresno. Both schools will travel for game, 2 real good offenses.

UCF likely ends up in Sugar, which is real good for us as well. Would have preferred orange, but 10 hours to Nawlins is very doable.

(11-14-2013 02:46 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  Not impressed tonight with Northern Illinois. Or Ball St. They would finish 4th at best in the American this year.

REALLY!! I'm biting my lip right now so not to offend.

They would easily finish behind UCF, Louisville, and Houston.

NIU didn't look like a BCS game contender.

One of the hosts on XM 91 asked whether we wanted to see the likes of NIU and FSU in the biggest 6 bowls. I don't.