(09-23-2013 07:49 PM)JOwl Wrote: If you think that you just need a TD and FG to tie, clearly you're going to go up-tempo, rather than crazy-fast.
Everything from here on out is pointless because this is wrong.
I agree with your subsequent math, but that isn't the situation at hand. You don't play for a TD and a FG to tie. You play for the 2 TDs to win... and go at whatever tempo allows you that option. You MAY end up settling for a TD and a FG to tie, but that is NOT how you manage the clock. Since you don't know what the other team will do... if you don't recover the onside kick... you go CF for the first score... If you end up in a situation where the first score is a TD, then you go for 2, because another TD still produces a win and if you make it, a FG (if necessary) gives you OT. NOW you see if you get the onside kick... and if you do, you go at a tempo designed to score with little time left... Planning on a TD and the win, settling for a FG and a tie.
You NEVER play for a tie... until that is your best hope.
(09-23-2013 08:02 PM)JOwl Wrote: (09-23-2013 07:23 PM)Hambone10 Wrote: Tautoligical argument. Bailiff kicked the field goal because he ended up in a 4th down situation and needed 2 scores, one of which COULD have been a FG because he kicked the previous point... not because he "played for the field goal". I'm certain he tried to pick up the first down on 3rd down and not merely move the ball to the middle of the field, playing for the field goal.
I know you don't actually believe that by kicking the FG, Bailiff was actually playing for 2 TDs. Yet that's what you said.
No I did not. I said that he was playing for 2 TDs when a situation arose that gave him little choice but to accept a FG. If you want to criticize his decision, it would have been HERE... and not on the 2 pt conversion. I believe we were in a 4th and 4, after 2 incomplete passes (playing fast for a TD) and then settling on 3rd down for a 6 yard rush for the FG. It was the 2 incomplete passes combined with the reality that a 57 yard FG was asking much more than a 50 yard FG would have asked, and we DID have a chance to get 10 yards on a run (we got 6) as they were backing out. Until 3rd down and ten from the UH 40, I believe he was playing for a TD. On 3rd, I think he HOPED to get a first, or to get perhaps 8-9... but to at least get 4 to make the kick more assured.
Quote:I think you're confused: I don't care that kicking the FG seemed right because it would've just left us down 8. What I care is that the decision _was_ wrong, because we ended up missing the 2-point conversion.
Well now I AM confused. You started the thread by asking if anyone else was pissed that Bailiff DIDN'T go for 2 after scoring to make it 31-19 (pre-pat), and now you seem pissed that we did.
Quote:Let's go back to my hypothetical with the 15-point deficit followed by late TD. For the moment just take that as a standalone, only tangentially related to the Rice situation and not dispositive of anything in that discussion. What would you do if you scored a TD with 3 minutes left to put you down 9 (pending the PAT)? Would you go for two now or wait? Do you see one strategy as substantively better than the other?
My answers are that I see going for two immediately as the substantially better approach, for the reasons I outlined in my hypothetical. I'm assuming you disagree, or am I wrong?
I'll play along, but the decisions are different because the situations are different.
In this example, you NEED 2 tds. You just got one. You need one more. You also need two 2 pt conversions to win or 1 and 1 to tie. Fail on either and you need an additional score. Of course you try for it on the first one, because you can't win if you don't.... and if you fail, you need 2 scores so you are in (what you call) crazy fast offense.
This wasn't the situation you described. Why do you need to change the situation, changing the most pertinent details to make your point? You said, down 31-19 with the PAT pending, do you kick it or go for 2? In THIS situation, you need a TD, an EP, a 2Pt conversion and a FG just to tie. If you miss the 2pt conversion, then you need 2 TDs, period... as you describe... BUT and this is a HUGE BUT... You don't PLAY for a tie. You play to win (which is 2 tds anyway) and then SETTLE for a tie. In that event, I kick the EP to make it 31-20. I then try and score as fast as I can and go for 2. If I make it, I can now play for the win with a TD and settle for a tie with a FG.... meaning if I get into a 4th and 4+, I don't HAVE to go for it. If I DON'T make it, THEN I need another TD to win and the FG option for the tie is off the table. All you're doing by going for 2 earlier is to potentially take the FG option off the table sooner. I understand that twice going for the 2 pt conversion gives you a probability of winning with just 1 more TD... but I have to believe that if you are THAT confident you can make two 2pt conversions, you really shouldn't have any trouble making 4th and 3 (functionally the same play) should it arise.
I get your point, but the odds of 2 TDs are the same either way... making the 2pt tries moot... and favor 1TD, a FG and a 2pt try for a tie... going into overtime after scoring what, an unanswered 18 points and giving up nothing over 1td a FG and TWO two point tries for a win. In the former, you can win, lose or tie (sending you to overtime). In the latter, you can only win or lose... and you lose (without 2tds) the moment a 2pt try fails.
But now I'm confused again, because a recap seems to show that down 31-19 we DID go for 2, and your original premise said it was a mistake NOT to go for 2?
Despite the fact that making it gives you a sliver of a chance to win with another 2pt conversion, I would not have done that because it eliminates the possibility of a tie from a FG if necessary, but it didn't end up mattering because we didn't score another touchdown.
Feel free to respond or not. I've said more than enough anyway. It doesn't really matter because we didn't score anyway. I DO appreciate the math you're running through... I just think that you don't EVER play for a tie until you have to... but you also don't close off your options until you have to.