(09-24-2013 01:00 PM)Hambone10 Wrote: (09-23-2013 07:49 PM)JOwl Wrote: If you think that you just need a TD and FG to tie, clearly you're going to go up-tempo, rather than crazy-fast.
Everything from here on out is pointless because this is wrong.
I agree with your subsequent math, but that isn't the situation at hand. You don't play for a TD and a FG to tie. You play for the 2 TDs to win... and go at whatever tempo allows you that option. You MAY end up settling for a TD and a FG to tie, but that is NOT how you manage the clock. Since you don't know what the other team will do... if you don't recover the onside kick... you go CF for the first score... If you end up in a situation where the first score is a TD, then you go for 2, because another TD still produces a win and if you make it, a FG (if necessary) gives you OT. NOW you see if you get the onside kick... and if you do, you go at a tempo designed to score with little time left... Planning on a TD and the win, settling for a FG and a tie.
You NEVER play for a tie... until that is your best hope.
I'm still not sure how I'm failing to make this point clear. First, let me concede that Bailiff was playing a strategy that was indistinguishable from going for 2 TDs (going for the win). But then he was posed with the situation of 4th and 9 (I think) from (I think) the UH 33. At that point he had two legitimate options: attempt the field goal, or go for the first down. _That_ is where his strategy diverged from the strategy of going for 2 touchdowns. He chose to kick the field goal rather than try to retain possession.
And given that he was down 11 at the time, his choice to kick the field goal was the best available option given the information that he had.
My problem with how he called the game is that he could/should have had _more_ information at that point in time -- he should have already known how his two point attempt would work out. If it was successful, he would've been down 10 and could be assured the field goal was the smart play. If it was unsuccessful, he would've been down 12 and would've know the field goal was not the smart play, since he really needed 2 TDs, and thus he would've gone for it.
I don't know what issue you take with my hypothetical. Would these be okay?
Strat 1:
<FGTD: 60%
FGTD: 20%
2TD: 20%
Strat 2:
<FGTD: 78%
FGTD: 0%
2TD: 22%
Let's say that in both the team is playing all out, with the only difference being that in the 2nd one your coach refuses to attempt any FGs for the rest of the game. Which strategy would you want your coach to employ if you're trailing by 11 late in the game?
-- With strat 1, you have a 40%*20% =8% chance of OT and a 20% of winning outright, for a net 8%*50% + 20% = 24% chance of winning.
-- With strat 2, you give up any chance of OT but only gain a 2% chance of winning outright, for a net 22% chance of winning.
In the situation of being down 11, I would want my coach to employ Strat 1 with its 24% chance of winning, and I think you would too. Coach will kick a field goal if he's forced to, rather than risk an unlikely 4th down conversion.
But what if I know I'm down 12 rather than 11? Then I would go with strat 2, and its 22% chance of winning (don't try a FG no matter what because it does you no good; take the risk on every 4th down).
If I'm only down 10, then I definitely employ strat 1, since I no longer need the 2pt conversion and therefore am at 20%*50% + 20% = 30% chance of winning.
Obviously in that last paragraph I'm talking about the two possible states to be in after attempting the 2PC on the first TD. Had I done that, I would've had a 60% chance of being down 12 and a 40% chance of being down 10. Thus accounting for those probabilities, going for two early would've left me with a 60%*22% + 40%*30% = 25.2% chance of winning.
The extra knowledge you gain by going for it early has bought an extra 1.2 percentage points of win likelihood, due to the ability to tailor the strategy to the situation. When you don't go for 2 until the end, you have no opportunity to go back and retroactively change your approach if you miss.
(09-24-2013 01:00 PM)Hambone10 Wrote: (09-23-2013 08:02 PM)JOwl Wrote: (09-23-2013 07:23 PM)Hambone10 Wrote: Tautoligical argument. Bailiff kicked the field goal because he ended up in a 4th down situation and needed 2 scores, one of which COULD have been a FG because he kicked the previous point... not because he "played for the field goal". I'm certain he tried to pick up the first down on 3rd down and not merely move the ball to the middle of the field, playing for the field goal.
I know you don't actually believe that by kicking the FG, Bailiff was actually playing for 2 TDs. Yet that's what you said.
No I did not. I said that he was playing for 2 TDs when a situation arose that gave him little choice but to accept a FG. If you want to criticize his decision, it would have been HERE... and not on the 2 pt conversion. I believe we were in a 4th and 4, after 2 incomplete passes (playing fast for a TD) and then settling on 3rd down for a 6 yard rush for the FG. It was the 2 incomplete passes combined with the reality that a 57 yard FG was asking much more than a 50 yard FG would have asked, and we DID have a chance to get 10 yards on a run (we got 6) as they were backing out. Until 3rd down and ten from the UH 40, I believe he was playing for a TD. On 3rd, I think he HOPED to get a first, or to get perhaps 8-9... but to at least get 4 to make the kick more assured.
I think I made the point better up above, but I'll say it again: at the point where Bailiff decided to kick the FG, he was definitely playing for the field goal. He may have been playing all out for the TD on the first 3 downs, but on 4th he quite obviously was playing for the field goal. Had he known at that point that a field goal would do him no good, he would've played differently (wouldn't have kicked a FG). And he didn't have to be the Amazing Kreskin to know that a FG would do him no good -- he simply needed to have tried the 2PC after the first touchdown rather than wait to try it on the 2nd touchdown.
(09-24-2013 01:00 PM)Hambone10 Wrote: Quote:I think you're confused: I don't care that kicking the FG seemed right because it would've just left us down 8. What I care is that the decision _was_ wrong, because we ended up missing the 2-point conversion.
Well now I AM confused. You started the thread by asking if anyone else was pissed that Bailiff DIDN'T go for 2 after scoring to make it 31-19 (pre-pat), and now you seem pissed that we did.
Yeah, this is probably one my worst-worded comments. I tried to explain it but I'm deleting the explanation. Let's just say I didn't convey what I was thinking.
I definitely agree with Bailiff's decision to attempt the field goal when down 11, what I disagree with was his decision to kick the EP to put us at -11. Had he made the right decision after the first TD and had it had the same outcome as our later 2PC attempt, then when the 4th down came up we would've been -12 and he would've known the FG was the wrong move.
(09-24-2013 01:00 PM)Hambone10 Wrote: Quote:Let's go back to my hypothetical with the 15-point deficit followed by late TD. For the moment just take that as a standalone, only tangentially related to the Rice situation and not dispositive of anything in that discussion. What would you do if you scored a TD with 3 minutes left to put you down 9 (pending the PAT)? Would you go for two now or wait? Do you see one strategy as substantively better than the other?
My answers are that I see going for two immediately as the substantially better approach, for the reasons I outlined in my hypothetical. I'm assuming you disagree, or am I wrong?
I'll play along, but the decisions are different because the situations are different.
In this example, you NEED 2 tds. You just got one. You need one more. You also need two 2 pt conversions to win or 1 and 1 to tie. Fail on either and you need an additional score. Of course you try for it on the first one, because you can't win if you don't.... and if you fail, you need 2 scores so you are in (what you call) crazy fast offense.
Cool. I'm glad we agree on that. Let me make sure of _why_ we agree. I say you go for it after the 1st TD because knowing the outcome of the 2pt attempt gives you useful information about how to play from there on out.
-- If you make it, you're just playing for one TD to tie, so assuming your D gets you the ball right back you'll probably play a "normal" hurry-up, and be looking to drive the ball down and punch it in with as little time left as possible. Scoring on a long bomb immediately would be good but not ideal, because the other team has time left.
-- If you miss it, you play as fast as possible, doing anything you can to get a score and another possession.
That is, you get to play smarter, picking the proper approach from the two above, than you would if you just kicked the EP. If your defense gets you the ball back right away and you're down 8, you don't know if it's better to score absolutely as fast as possible, or to run it down and then punch it in.
In other words, the benefit to going for it early is the information it gives you on how to play. And since you are going to go for the 2PC on one of your two touchdowns, you might as well give yourself that information right away -- it doesn't cost you anything.
The only reason I brought up this scenario was as an analogy. I think it's a simpler situation than the Rice game, and more clearly illustrates the value of "information" to the coming-from-behind coach. If he knows exactly how high that mountain is that he needs to scale, then he's going to do a better job of scaling it than he would do if he's just guessing.
So now let me extend that analogy. In our game, we were down 18. That meant we needed TD+1 and TD+2 and FG to tie the game, or we needed 3 TDs (with at least 1 extra point) to win the game. There are some similarities to the down-15 scenario. In our -18 scenario, going for 2 early would give us valuable information on how to play the rest of the game. In the -15 scenario, that info would tell us whether we're playing for 1 score or 2 scores. In our 18-point scenario, that would tell us whether we need to play for 2 TDs or a TD and FG. Also like the 15-point scenario, there's no downside to going for the 2PC on the first TD vs the 2nd TD if we're FG+2TD, (and no downside to missing a 2PC if we score 3TDs).
(09-24-2013 01:00 PM)Hambone10 Wrote: This wasn't the situation you described. Why do you need to change the situation, changing the most pertinent details to make your point? You said, down 31-19 with the PAT pending, do you kick it or go for 2? In THIS situation, you need a TD, an EP, a 2Pt conversion and a FG just to tie. If you miss the 2pt conversion, then you need 2 TDs, period... as you describe... BUT and this is a HUGE BUT... You don't PLAY for a tie. You play to win (which is 2 tds anyway) and then SETTLE for a tie. In that event, I kick the EP to make it 31-20. I then try and score as fast as I can and go for 2. If I make it, I can now play for the win with a TD and settle for a tie with a FG.... meaning if I get into a 4th and 4+, I don't HAVE to go for it. If I DON'T make it, THEN I need another TD to win and the FG option for the tie is off the table. All you're doing by going for 2 earlier is to potentially take the FG option off the table sooner. I understand that twice going for the 2 pt conversion gives you a probability of winning with just 1 more TD... but I have to believe that if you are THAT confident you can make two 2pt conversions, you really shouldn't have any trouble making 4th and 3 (functionally the same play) should it arise.
I get your point, but the odds of 2 TDs are the same either way... making the 2pt tries moot... and favor 1TD, a FG and a 2pt try for a tie... going into overtime after scoring what, an unanswered 18 points and giving up nothing over 1td a FG and TWO two point tries for a win. In the former, you can win, lose or tie (sending you to overtime). In the latter, you can only win or lose... and you lose (without 2tds) the moment a 2pt try fails.
But now I'm confused again, because a recap seems to show that down 31-19 we DID go for 2, and your original premise said it was a mistake NOT to go for 2?
Despite the fact that making it gives you a sliver of a chance to win with another 2pt conversion, I would not have done that because it eliminates the possibility of a tie from a FG if necessary, but it didn't end up mattering because we didn't score another touchdown.
Feel free to respond or not. I've said more than enough anyway. It doesn't really matter because we didn't score anyway. I DO appreciate the math you're running through... I just think that you don't EVER play for a tie until you have to... but you also don't close off your options until you have to.
That uncertainty you seem to want -- leaving the FG as a valid option solely because you don't know the outcome of the 2PC -- is a _bad_ thing. It is not good to just think a FG might be valuable; it is good to know definitively that the FG is valuable or is not valuable.
In other words, if the FG isn't go to be enough to tie anyay, then it's a _good_ thing to have that option off the table sooner. Obviously it's not good to miss the 2PC, and ideally you make if, but if you're gonna miss it it's better to know that early so you don't waste a possession kicking a field goal that's going to leave you with a 2-point loss.
This is equivalent to my 15-point example, where if you were going to miss the 2PC anyway, then you would know it's not the right move to run the clock down before scoring your 2nd TD. The equivalent here is knowing it's not the right move to attempt a FG rather than go for it on 4th downs. In both cases, you don't have a time machine, so you can't base your strategy off the outcome of the 2PC if you wait until after the 2nd TD to try it.