(05-10-2013 04:01 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(05-10-2013 03:01 PM)S11 Wrote:  My guess is at least one of the Florida schools gets called up. After that I could see Charlotte, Marshall, USM, or ODU.

Thing is, I'm skeptical about the founding assumption of both Florida schools going. Wait six years and see if one of the schools starts to make a name for itself, and then the Big12 can take the most successful of the two Florida Schools in The American plus UC. Given a reluctance to go to twelve, and an even greater reluctance to get past twelve, taking two Directional Floridas now in hopes that one, the other or both will bust a move after they move up is seriously risking wasting a spot.

Now if it was FSU, they have a big enough name to start making demands about travel partners, etc ... but if its UCF or USF, then they'll not be in any position to be anywhere near so demanding, if it means a call up to a Power Conference.

But, an expansion candidate would likely be stronger already with experience in the Big 12, six years from now. Either the Big 12 benefits enough from expansion or it doesn't.

I think it'd make more sense for the Big XII to add one of the Florida schools, and someone else.

I'm skeptical about why an Ohio State source would be breaking this story as well, particularly if it involved both Florida schools. I'd be just slightly less skeptical if he had heard some rumors regarding UC and one of the Florida teams. I still doubt that the Big 12 is going to add any of them, but from a market addition perspective I'd agree that it'd be best to add both Ohio and Florida (even if not the top tier programs) than to double-down in Florida.

(05-10-2013 04:16 PM)Green Bull Wrote:  

(05-10-2013 04:01 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(05-10-2013 03:01 PM)S11 Wrote:  My guess is at least one of the Florida schools gets called up. After that I could see Charlotte, Marshall, USM, or ODU.

Thing is, I'm skeptical about the founding assumption of both Florida schools going. Wait six years and see if one of the schools starts to make a name for itself, and then the Big12 can take the most successful of the two Florida Schools in The American plus UC. Given a reluctance to go to twelve, and an even greater reluctance to get past twelve, taking two Directional Floridas now in hopes that one, the other or both will bust a move after they move up is seriously risking wasting a spot.

Now if it was FSU, they have a big enough name to start making demands about travel partners, etc ... but if its UCF or USF, then they'll not be in any position to be anywhere near so demanding, if it means a call up to a Power Conference.

But, an expansion candidate would likely be stronger already with experience in the Big 12, six years from now. Either the Big 12 benefits enough from expansion or it doesn't.

That's true, but it also might be the case that the Big 12 benefits from expansion enough to do it only if a non-P5 like USF bears the costs of becoming stronger on its own for a few years rather than at the Big 12's expense during those same year.

The more I think about it the more I think BYU/USF with WVU/USF in the South.

(05-10-2013 01:42 PM)Mestophalies Wrote:  

(05-10-2013 01:40 PM)eagleriffic Wrote:  It would be a bold move by the b12 however they could probably name their terms in getting these two to join.

There's no doubt about that. I'm just interested in placing a source to this and finding out exactly what the source is saying.

I don't see it happening unless TV wanted it. which is doubtful. I agree on the terms statement. They could bring in both at 1/2 regular rate and they would jump.

(05-10-2013 01:47 PM)bigblueblindness Wrote:  I can't bring myself to think this is possible, but it would make the ACC and SEC very happy. It sends the Big 12 down the road of accepting lower tier status. As stand alones, Iowa St, Kansas St, Ok. St., TT, TCU, Baylor, USF, and UCF do not get invites to the PAC, B1G, SEC, or ACC. Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas could go anywhere, and WVU is plausible to the SEC or ACC (they lost their "academic" card when they accepted Louisville). The potential money to get into Florida and hold a conference championship game must be staggering for the Big 12 to be willing to take such a credibility hit. Both schools instantly become the lowest academic schools in the Big 5 conferences (UCF is 174, USF is 170, WVU and TT are lowest now at 165), and both would be the lowest revenue generators (which is understandable considering conference affiliation). It would be a tremendous coo by both schools.

UK is so smart and credible, that's why the hired Calipari and never schedule directional schools in FL to play football

(05-11-2013 05:45 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(05-10-2013 04:16 PM)Green Bull Wrote:  

(05-10-2013 04:01 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(05-10-2013 03:01 PM)S11 Wrote:  My guess is at least one of the Florida schools gets called up. After that I could see Charlotte, Marshall, USM, or ODU.

Thing is, I'm skeptical about the founding assumption of both Florida schools going. Wait six years and see if one of the schools starts to make a name for itself, and then the Big12 can take the most successful of the two Florida Schools in The American plus UC. Given a reluctance to go to twelve, and an even greater reluctance to get past twelve, taking two Directional Floridas now in hopes that one, the other or both will bust a move after they move up is seriously risking wasting a spot.

Now if it was FSU, they have a big enough name to start making demands about travel partners, etc ... but if its UCF or USF, then they'll not be in any position to be anywhere near so demanding, if it means a call up to a Power Conference.

But, an expansion candidate would likely be stronger already with experience in the Big 12, six years from now. Either the Big 12 benefits enough from expansion or it doesn't.

That's true, but it also might be the case that the Big 12 benefits from expansion enough to do it only if a non-P5 like USF bears the costs of becoming stronger on its own for a few years rather than at the Big 12's expense during those same year.

I suspect if the Big 12 does not expand for the 2014 or at least 2015 season, it will probably never expand again-at least with Texas and Oklahoma still in the conference.

Here's a thought...
Say the new AAC does extremely well...much better than expected by anyone. TV revenues rise along with the quality of the product, and UCF/USF decide to stay in the conference with closer neighbors. What does that do for Big XII options 10-12 years from now? Probably won't happen but it could.

(05-11-2013 12:32 PM)USAFMEDIC Wrote:  Here's a thought...
Say the new AAC does extremely well...much better than expected by anyone. TV revenues rise along with the quality of the product, and UCF/USF decide to stay in the conference with closer neighbors. What does that do for Big XII options 10-12 years from now? Probably won't happen but it could.

Explain who these "closer neighbors" are in the AAC?

(05-11-2013 08:32 PM)Knightsweat Wrote:  

(05-11-2013 12:32 PM)USAFMEDIC Wrote:  Here's a thought...
Say the new AAC does extremely well...much better than expected by anyone. TV revenues rise along with the quality of the product, and UCF/USF decide to stay in the conference with closer neighbors. What does that do for Big XII options 10-12 years from now? Probably won't happen but it could.

Explain who these "closer neighbors" are in the AAC?

You might have me on that one... let's just go with a successful AAC.

(05-11-2013 10:28 PM)USAFMEDIC Wrote:  

(05-11-2013 08:32 PM)Knightsweat Wrote:  

(05-11-2013 12:32 PM)USAFMEDIC Wrote:  Here's a thought...
Say the new AAC does extremely well...much better than expected by anyone. TV revenues rise along with the quality of the product, and UCF/USF decide to stay in the conference with closer neighbors. What does that do for Big XII options 10-12 years from now? Probably won't happen but it could.

Explain who these "closer neighbors" are in the AAC?

You might have me on that one... let's just go with a successful AAC.

Cheers

If I'm the B12 and BYU just isnt gonna work out, my next preference is get into other big markets/recruiting states.

I clearly want in to Florida but no longer have FSU or Miami as an option, I go with South Florida. They have done the time and are a brand you can work with and grow fairly easily.

I don't take UCF unless I'm expanding to 14 because they add nothing USF doesn't and I cant waste a slot on redundancy if I'm just going to 12.

For #12 I take Cincinnati to get WVU a travel partner and get into another big, huge, recruiting rich football state (TX, OH & FL is a great recruiting triumvirate)

ISU
KU
KSU
WVU
UC
USF

OU
OSU
TCU
UT
TTU
BU

(05-12-2013 10:19 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  If I'm the B12 and BYU just isnt gonna work out, my next preference is get into other big markets/recruiting states.

I clearly want in to Florida but no longer have FSU or Miami as an option, I go with South Florida. They have done the time and are a brand you can work with and grow fairly easily.

I don't take UCF unless I'm expanding to 14 because they add nothing USF doesn't and I cant waste a slot on redundancy if I'm just going to 12.

For #12 I take Cincinnati to get WVU a travel partner and get into another big, huge, recruiting rich football state (TX, OH & FL is a great recruiting triumvirate)

ISU
KU
KSU
WVU
UC
USF

OU
OSU
TCU
UT
TTU
BU

Other than UCF over USF (10k more undergrads and more on campus leading to larger donor/fan base growth as well as no pro competition) I agree except for MAYBE UConn over UC.

The huskies have a better financial base, younger program, and almost twice the season ticket demand despite sucking recently.

Without a BYU I just can't see of a good reason as of right now why the Big XII would expand...it would be expanding just for the sake of it...

Its possible that the other 4 P5 conferences are pressuring the B12 and ESPN to expand to at least 12 so their champ has to win it in a CCG game too.

(05-12-2013 10:55 AM)Maize Wrote:  Without a BYU I just can't see of a good reason as of right now why the Big XII would expand...it would be expanding just for the sake of it...

Maize, BYU had their chance to join and turned it down. I doubt they'll get a 2nd chance...

(05-12-2013 01:48 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(05-12-2013 10:55 AM)Maize Wrote:  Without a BYU I just can't see of a good reason as of right now why the Big XII would expand...it would be expanding just for the sake of it...

Maize, BYU had their chance to join and turned it down. I doubt they'll get a 2nd chance...

Offering a religious based university membership in a conference on the condition that the religious based school drops one of it's core religious principles for the sake of college athletics doesn't really equate to an actual offer of membership.

This, much like the Sun Belt trying to get to 12, simply doesn't make sense, IMHO. USF and UCF are fine schools, but I just don't think they add much to help the Big XII compete with the SEC, the B1G, and the PAC 12, whom they really see as their biggest rivals. They both are in desirable markets, but do they really deliver those markets? Florida is a tough market for college football. Many of the people in Tampa and Orlando are transplants and retain loyalties from elsewhere. The population tends to trend more older and transitory, which doesn't really lend itself to deep support. Much of the population does not come from areas where college football is widely supported. Neither UCF nor USF draw much interest outside their local area (they may be flagship schools, but their support footprint is more like a non-flagship regional school - UCF/USF doesn't register in the Panhandle, etc.).

(05-12-2013 06:08 PM)WinOrLoseEAGLE Wrote:  

(05-12-2013 01:48 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(05-12-2013 10:55 AM)Maize Wrote:  Without a BYU I just can't see of a good reason as of right now why the Big XII would expand...it would be expanding just for the sake of it...

Maize, BYU had their chance to join and turned it down. I doubt they'll get a 2nd chance...

Offering a religious based university membership in a conference on the condition that the religious based school drops one of it's core religious principles for the sake of college athletics doesn't really equate to an actual offer of membership.

It's the only kind of offer they're going to get from a P5 conference. If they want to play with the big boys, it will be by the big boy's rules, and not their own...