You also have to flip the question on its head. Which loss would hurt the A-10 more: Dayton and Richmond? From a financial standpoint, I would say Dayton for sure. They have the best fan base in the conference and the C7 taking Richmond would effectively blow up the A-10 in the Midwest (where they would be less likely to go after the Horizon or MVC to backfill) and instead have to retreat to be a solely Northeastern league. That doesn't necessarily mean Dayton is best for the C7, but it shows the value that they have to the A-10 compared to Richmond.

(03-07-2013 08:47 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(03-07-2013 08:10 AM)bmorex Wrote:  Interesting that Richmond has kinda fallen off the map (or at least, being less discussed), considering all the talk by Andy katz about their close relationship with Georgetown.

If Richmond had VCU's resume, they'd probably be lock because the East Coast members probably want another eastern private school very badly. The problem is that all of the Midwestern schools have stronger programs and fan bases. Dayton is essentially the same TV market size as Richmond, so that's a wash. However, Dayton's fan support is pretty massive - it's one of the best track records for attendance in all of college basketball. Dayton also has 3 times the enrollment - it might be a private school, but it's not exactly small (whereas there are tons of high schools in Virginia that are larger than U of Richmond). I think the powers that be really want to like Richmond, but upon closer examination, they're finding it harder and harder to overlook Dayton, which meets so many other criteria better.

With the C7 determined not to go to geographic divisions, the biggest programs available makes sense once you get beyond the stars like Xavier, Butler and Creighton.

St. Louis is helped a lot by the fact they have a strong team this year and one of the larger markets.

well. doesn't seem like it's all done by any stretch.

from the McMurphy article update this morning:
According to an exiting Big East source, the new league still has to pursue expansion, conduct a commissioner search, draft league bylaws, and complete fall championship planning. Thursday's announcement is the finality of the exit.

I still do wonder about the comment about Fox in the Dayton article. It makes it sound like Fox is doing a lot of the deciding, which does hurt Dayton quite a bit.

There is NOTHING new in this tweet. Creighton still "likely". They have Ben reporting that for weeks. Let me know when likely becomes definite. I don't know what the delay is

(03-07-2013 09:06 AM)stever20 Wrote:  well. doesn't seem like it's all done by any stretch.

from the McMurphy article update this morning:
According to an exiting Big East source, the new league still has to pursue expansion, conduct a commissioner search, draft league bylaws, and complete fall championship planning. Thursday's announcement is the finality of the exit.

I still do wonder about the comment about Fox in the Dayton article. It makes it sound like Fox is doing a lot of the deciding, which does hurt Dayton quite a bit.

Putting aside that "influence from Fox" (which I believe is happening) is much different than "deciding by Fox" (which I don't believe is happening), we have to question the automatic assumption that Fox wouldn't want Dayton. Here's the list of the top 25 college basketball TV markets:

http://espnmediazone.com/us/press-releas.../11/60498/

Dayton is at #8 with a 2.0 average rating, while Richmond is at #20 with a 1.0 average rating. Since Dayton and Richmond are effectively the same market size, that means that there are twice as many college basketball viewers in the former compared to the latter. That alone makes Dayton compelling. However, that's not even the whole story. Columbus is at #4, Cincinnati is at #7, Indianapolis (less than 2 hours away from Dayton and where a disproportionate amount of UD grads end up) is at #9, and Cleveland is at #14, all of which are much larger markets compared to Richmond. In essence, Dayton is at the center of the country's best pound-for-pound college basketball viewing region outside of the North Carolina (and it's not just a paper market advantage because Dayton truly and legitimately has a great fan base that watches games). (With all of the focus on how Ohio is a big football state, the state's love for college basketball is massively underrated by the rest of the nation. Only the blue blood hoops states of Indiana, Kentucky and North Carolina really compare.) So, if there's a place where you'd want to double down on college basketball teams, it would be where Dayton is located. The network effects are strong where these markets are going to have critical masses of Dayton, Xavier, SLU and Butler graduates in particular, where they become legit "Big East markets" as opposed to "markets in which the Big East is located" (if you get what I'm saying with the difference). Richmond and VCU don't really bring those network effects - Georgetown and the other Big East schools don't send grads to the Richmond market en masse, VCU's connection to the rest of the Big East would be largely relegated to Northern Virginia and the DC market, and Richmond's alumni base is small and very spread out throughout the Northeast.

Does that override the factor of a school like Richmond possibly bringing in the state of Virginia overall? Maybe not, but I think we're too quick to dismiss Dayton as some type of school that the TV networks would recoil at. The college basketball viewership numbers in the state of Ohio and surrounding areas are massive.

only thing about that survey is it's just ESPN telecasts. How many Richmond or VCU telecasts were there on ESPN compared to Dayton? Don't think there were that many of any since A10 wasn't on ESPN at all. But a Dayton person a LOT more likely to watch Ohio St team that was really good vs a Richmond person watching UVA or Va Tech.

CBS report:
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketba...-on-july-1

absolutely no mention of Dayton and SLU for the 11th/12th slots.

I feel safe in saying that the decision definitely not done for teams 11 and 12 at all.

(03-07-2013 01:56 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(03-07-2013 01:50 AM)NJRedMan Wrote:  

(03-07-2013 01:35 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(03-07-2013 01:30 AM)NJRedMan Wrote:  

(03-07-2013 01:24 AM)stever20 Wrote:  right, but wasn't the column last week saying they were definitely in? From last weeks column:
While Butler, Xavier and, most likely, Creighton are expected to join the new Big East this fall, the Catholic 7 schools are also expected to add Dayton and St. Louis in 2014 for a 12-team league.

The column this week seems at least somewhat less definitive about that I'd say. Last week, ESPN made it seem like Dayton and SLU were done deals. This week, just leading candidates. Could just be semantics, but seems like a pretty big difference.

No, it's the same thing. Dayton and St. Louis were said to be the likely adds and here it is again saying the three for next season and the two who will likely also be added. To me it just makes sense to announce all 5 at once and if they are making this announcement within days then it's probably a good bet that they have all 5 lined up and ready to go.

I really don't see it as the same thing. Last week made it seem like decision was done and just a formality. To say that 2 are leading candidates means there's still some deciding to do.

Just saying- remember the thread about fox wanting to make a splash.

Also- interesting comments by Dayton President Curran today:
“When push comes to shove, those (presidents) have to make the decisions that are best for their institutions. …. The good thing is, the fact we’re in the A-10, and it is a strong conference — we’re blessed with that. We’ll just have to wait and see,” Curran said.

Hardly seems like something one would say if they knew for sure they would be in the Big East now is it?

now gee, who is making it personal bud???

btw, the Dayton folks on a Dayton message board are FREAKING OUT about the article.

please dont group that message board with all ud alumni/fans. These are the same "message board fans" who were saying they hope we stay in the A10 and not move to the C7 so we could dominate the conference

(03-07-2013 09:49 AM)stever20 Wrote:  CBS report:
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketba...-on-july-1

absolutely no mention of Dayton and SLU for the 11th/12th slots.

I feel safe in saying that the decision definitely not done for teams 11 and 12 at all.

I agree with that. If there was consensus already, there would be 12 teams in the league next season. Their actions are telling you there are still things to hash out concerning 11 and 12.

(03-07-2013 09:49 AM)stever20 Wrote:  CBS report:
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketba...-on-july-1

absolutely no mention of Dayton and SLU for the 11th/12th slots.

I feel safe in saying that the decision definitely not done for teams 11 and 12 at all.

Im seriously worried about you stever.

(03-07-2013 09:49 AM)stever20 Wrote:  CBS report:
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketba...-on-july-1

absolutely no mention of Dayton and SLU for the 11th/12th slots.

I feel safe in saying that the decision definitely not done for teams 11 and 12 at all.

Of course nothing is final until it's final. Everyone knows that (or should know that). However, I think it's obtuse to think that there's going to be a massive deviation from what has been consistently reported by multiple people that have better reputations than The Dude. Please don't be like the posters on the "Old" Big East board that have to go through the following cycle on every story that they don't want to be true: (1) reflexively discrediting the author and/or publisher of the applicable news article as (a) biased against the conference and/or (b) an inaccurate rumor-mongerer, (2) saying "it's not final, things can change, and no one has announced anything", (3) parse some vague qualifier or technicality in such article as "proof" that the opposite of what's being reported will happen, (4) deny that the news that they don't want to hear is happening, (5) deny it again by saying "It's not final!", (6) deny it about 20 more times, (7) go into a massive meltdown when the news that they don't want to hear is officially confirmed after denying it for days/weeks/months.

Is there a chance something different might happen here? Sure, in the sense that anything is possible in conference realignment. However, the likelihood of some type of March surprise is less than 10%. The only realistic variable is whether spot #12 goes to Dayton or Richmond (with SLU being a virtual lock at #11). The wild cards that I think that you're hoping for (e.g. VCU, Gonzaga) simply aren't likely going to come to fruition. You can hold out hope just like the Old Big East posters constantly like doing (until they feel like they got smacked in the face with bad news that the rest of the world with clear and logical eyes knew had been coming for a long time), but I think you're smart enough to know what's realistic here compared to what you personally want.

(03-07-2013 10:06 AM)Title Wrote:  

(03-07-2013 09:49 AM)stever20 Wrote:  CBS report:
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketba...-on-july-1

absolutely no mention of Dayton and SLU for the 11th/12th slots.

I feel safe in saying that the decision definitely not done for teams 11 and 12 at all.

I agree with that. If there was consensus already, there would be 12 teams in the league next season. Their actions are telling you there are still things to hash out concerning 11 and 12.

Well, the exit fee situation in the A-10 does put a wrinkle into that. It's $2 million per team for 2013 but an immaterial amount for 2014. So, the C7 is likely willing to cover 2 teams for 2013 (Xavier and Butler) along with Creighton (who has a small exit fee from the MVC no matter when they leave) and then allow the other 2 invites (out of the SLU/Dayton/Richmond pool) to give 1 year notice to the A-10 to have a small exit fee. A few weeks ago, I had the same thought as you did ("Why the heck wouldn't they go to 12 immediately if that's what they want to do long-term?"), but after seeing the financial penalty breakdown, it makes sense to have the two-phase expansion of 9 or 10 teams in 2013 and 12 teams in 2014.

(03-07-2013 10:11 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(03-07-2013 09:49 AM)stever20 Wrote:  CBS report:
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketba...-on-july-1

absolutely no mention of Dayton and SLU for the 11th/12th slots.

I feel safe in saying that the decision definitely not done for teams 11 and 12 at all.

Of course nothing is final until it's final. Everyone knows that (or should know that). However, I think it's obtuse to think that there's going to be a massive deviation from what has been consistently reported by multiple people that have better reputations than The Dude. Please don't be like the posters on the "Old" Big East board that have to go through the following cycle on every story that they don't want to be true: (1) reflexively discrediting the author and/or publisher of the applicable news article as (a) biased against the conference and/or (b) an inaccurate rumor-mongerer, (2) saying "it's not final, things can change, and no one has announced anything", (3) parse some vague qualifier or technicality in such article as "proof" that the opposite of what's being reported will happen, (4) deny that the news that they don't want to hear is happening, (5) deny it again by saying "It's not final!", (6) deny it about 20 more times, (7) go into a massive meltdown when the news that they don't want to hear is officially confirmed after denying it for days/weeks/months.

Is there a chance something different might happen here? Sure, in the sense that anything is possible in conference realignment. However, the likelihood of some type of March surprise is less than 10%. The only realistic variable is whether spot #12 goes to Dayton or Richmond (with SLU being a virtual lock at #11). The wild cars that I think that you're hoping for (e.g. VCU, Gonzaga) simply aren't likely going to come to fruition. You can hold out hope just like the Old Big East posters constantly like doing (until they feel like they got smacked in the face with bad news that the rest of the world with clear and logical eyes knew had been coming for a long time), but I think you're smart enough to know what's realistic here compared to what you personally want.

I think, much like what Title said if there was consensous- you'd see 12 in the league next year. What sense does it make going 10 then 12 next year at all? To save 2 teams exit fees(which would be mroe than made up in the new league)?

And the fact remains- ESPN has changed their story from forgone conclusion to just leading candidates. That's a HUGE difference.

(03-07-2013 10:17 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(03-07-2013 10:11 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(03-07-2013 09:49 AM)stever20 Wrote:  CBS report:
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketba...-on-july-1

absolutely no mention of Dayton and SLU for the 11th/12th slots.

I feel safe in saying that the decision definitely not done for teams 11 and 12 at all.

Of course nothing is final until it's final. Everyone knows that (or should know that). However, I think it's obtuse to think that there's going to be a massive deviation from what has been consistently reported by multiple people that have better reputations than The Dude. Please don't be like the posters on the "Old" Big East board that have to go through the following cycle on every story that they don't want to be true: (1) reflexively discrediting the author and/or publisher of the applicable news article as (a) biased against the conference and/or (b) an inaccurate rumor-mongerer, (2) saying "it's not final, things can change, and no one has announced anything", (3) parse some vague qualifier or technicality in such article as "proof" that the opposite of what's being reported will happen, (4) deny that the news that they don't want to hear is happening, (5) deny it again by saying "It's not final!", (6) deny it about 20 more times, (7) go into a massive meltdown when the news that they don't want to hear is officially confirmed after denying it for days/weeks/months.

Is there a chance something different might happen here? Sure, in the sense that anything is possible in conference realignment. However, the likelihood of some type of March surprise is less than 10%. The only realistic variable is whether spot #12 goes to Dayton or Richmond (with SLU being a virtual lock at #11). The wild cars that I think that you're hoping for (e.g. VCU, Gonzaga) simply aren't likely going to come to fruition. You can hold out hope just like the Old Big East posters constantly like doing (until they feel like they got smacked in the face with bad news that the rest of the world with clear and logical eyes knew had been coming for a long time), but I think you're smart enough to know what's realistic here compared to what you personally want.

I think, much like what Title said if there was consensous- you'd see 12 in the league next year. What sense does it make going 10 then 12 next year at all? To save 2 teams exit fees(which would be mroe than made up in the new league)?

And the fact remains- ESPN has changed their story from forgone conclusion to just leading candidates. That's a HUGE difference.

No it doesnt, because they are still the leading candidates! VCU didn't come flying off the top turnbuckle with a Macho Man Randy Savage elbow drop on top of Dayton and is now a leading candidate. Yeeeeesh

(03-07-2013 10:16 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(03-07-2013 10:06 AM)Title Wrote:  

(03-07-2013 09:49 AM)stever20 Wrote:  CBS report:
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketba...-on-july-1

absolutely no mention of Dayton and SLU for the 11th/12th slots.

I feel safe in saying that the decision definitely not done for teams 11 and 12 at all.

I agree with that. If there was consensus already, there would be 12 teams in the league next season. Their actions are telling you there are still things to hash out concerning 11 and 12.

Well, the exit fee situation in the A-10 does put a wrinkle into that. It's $2 million per team for 2013 but an immaterial amount for 2014. So, the C7 is likely willing to cover 2 teams for 2013 (Xavier and Butler) along with Creighton (who has a small exit fee from the MVC no matter when they leave) and then allow the other 2 invites (out of the SLU/Dayton/Richmond pool) to give 1 year notice to the A-10 to have a small exit fee. A few weeks ago, I had the same thought as you did ("Why the heck wouldn't they go to 12 immediately if that's what they want to do long-term?"), but after seeing the financial penalty breakdown, it makes sense to have the two-phase expansion of 9 or 10 teams in 2013 and 12 teams in 2014.

Think about it though. Going back to the logic you used with the split-
For the 2 2014 teams:
if stay in A10- 1 million exit fee, no tv revenue- net -1 million
if go to BE- 2 million exit fee, 3.5-4 million tv money- net 1.5-2 million

Also, like what Redman said, wouldn't they announce all 5 at the same time then, just teams 4 and 5 coming in next year? In a way, the year of entry has nothing to do with it at all.

(03-07-2013 10:17 AM)stever20 Wrote:  And the fact remains- ESPN has changed their story from forgone conclusion to just leading candidates. That's a HUGE difference.

I completely disagree with your interpretation of that ESPN story, but it is what it is on that front. You want to hold out hope that Fox is going to force in VCU. I get it. Who knows - maybe that will happen. (I wouldn't bet on it, but I'll allow that nothing is final until it's final.) However, what you're hoping for is coloring what you're reading in this particular case.

(03-07-2013 10:21 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(03-07-2013 10:16 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(03-07-2013 10:06 AM)Title Wrote:  

(03-07-2013 09:49 AM)stever20 Wrote:  CBS report:
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketba...-on-july-1

absolutely no mention of Dayton and SLU for the 11th/12th slots.

I feel safe in saying that the decision definitely not done for teams 11 and 12 at all.

I agree with that. If there was consensus already, there would be 12 teams in the league next season. Their actions are telling you there are still things to hash out concerning 11 and 12.

Well, the exit fee situation in the A-10 does put a wrinkle into that. It's $2 million per team for 2013 but an immaterial amount for 2014. So, the C7 is likely willing to cover 2 teams for 2013 (Xavier and Butler) along with Creighton (who has a small exit fee from the MVC no matter when they leave) and then allow the other 2 invites (out of the SLU/Dayton/Richmond pool) to give 1 year notice to the A-10 to have a small exit fee. A few weeks ago, I had the same thought as you did ("Why the heck wouldn't they go to 12 immediately if that's what they want to do long-term?"), but after seeing the financial penalty breakdown, it makes sense to have the two-phase expansion of 9 or 10 teams in 2013 and 12 teams in 2014.

Think about it though. Going back to the logic you used with the split-
For the 2 2014 teams:
if stay in A10- 1 million exit fee, no tv revenue- net -1 million
if go to BE- 2 million exit fee, 3.5-4 million tv money- net 1.5-2 million

Also, like what Redman said, wouldn't they announce all 5 at the same time then, just teams 4 and 5 coming in next year? In a way, the year of entry has nothing to do with it at all.

Maybe they don't want to COMPLETELY NUETER another conference with months before the season starts? They still could announce all at once but the reporters only seem to care about who is coming next year.

(03-07-2013 10:20 AM)NJRedMan Wrote:  

(03-07-2013 10:17 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(03-07-2013 10:11 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(03-07-2013 09:49 AM)stever20 Wrote:  CBS report:
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketba...-on-july-1

absolutely no mention of Dayton and SLU for the 11th/12th slots.

I feel safe in saying that the decision definitely not done for teams 11 and 12 at all.

Of course nothing is final until it's final. Everyone knows that (or should know that). However, I think it's obtuse to think that there's going to be a massive deviation from what has been consistently reported by multiple people that have better reputations than The Dude. Please don't be like the posters on the "Old" Big East board that have to go through the following cycle on every story that they don't want to be true: (1) reflexively discrediting the author and/or publisher of the applicable news article as (a) biased against the conference and/or (b) an inaccurate rumor-mongerer, (2) saying "it's not final, things can change, and no one has announced anything", (3) parse some vague qualifier or technicality in such article as "proof" that the opposite of what's being reported will happen, (4) deny that the news that they don't want to hear is happening, (5) deny it again by saying "It's not final!", (6) deny it about 20 more times, (7) go into a massive meltdown when the news that they don't want to hear is officially confirmed after denying it for days/weeks/months.

Is there a chance something different might happen here? Sure, in the sense that anything is possible in conference realignment. However, the likelihood of some type of March surprise is less than 10%. The only realistic variable is whether spot #12 goes to Dayton or Richmond (with SLU being a virtual lock at #11). The wild cars that I think that you're hoping for (e.g. VCU, Gonzaga) simply aren't likely going to come to fruition. You can hold out hope just like the Old Big East posters constantly like doing (until they feel like they got smacked in the face with bad news that the rest of the world with clear and logical eyes knew had been coming for a long time), but I think you're smart enough to know what's realistic here compared to what you personally want.

I think, much like what Title said if there was consensous- you'd see 12 in the league next year. What sense does it make going 10 then 12 next year at all? To save 2 teams exit fees(which would be mroe than made up in the new league)?

And the fact remains- ESPN has changed their story from forgone conclusion to just leading candidates. That's a HUGE difference.

No it doesnt, because they are still the leading candidates! VCU didn't come flying off the top turnbuckle with a Macho Man Randy Savage elbow drop on top of Dayton and is now a leading candidate. Yeeeeesh

When the heck did I meniton VCU? Give it a break....

Last week- forgone conclusion of the 5
this week- leading candidates. Means there is still a lot of deciding to do and nothing decided at all.

You may want the Tramel 5 railroaded in, but the articles posted late last night and today don't support that at ALL.

(03-07-2013 10:25 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(03-07-2013 10:20 AM)NJRedMan Wrote:  

(03-07-2013 10:17 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(03-07-2013 10:11 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(03-07-2013 09:49 AM)stever20 Wrote:  CBS report:
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketba...-on-july-1

absolutely no mention of Dayton and SLU for the 11th/12th slots.

I feel safe in saying that the decision definitely not done for teams 11 and 12 at all.

Of course nothing is final until it's final. Everyone knows that (or should know that). However, I think it's obtuse to think that there's going to be a massive deviation from what has been consistently reported by multiple people that have better reputations than The Dude. Please don't be like the posters on the "Old" Big East board that have to go through the following cycle on every story that they don't want to be true: (1) reflexively discrediting the author and/or publisher of the applicable news article as (a) biased against the conference and/or (b) an inaccurate rumor-mongerer, (2) saying "it's not final, things can change, and no one has announced anything", (3) parse some vague qualifier or technicality in such article as "proof" that the opposite of what's being reported will happen, (4) deny that the news that they don't want to hear is happening, (5) deny it again by saying "It's not final!", (6) deny it about 20 more times, (7) go into a massive meltdown when the news that they don't want to hear is officially confirmed after denying it for days/weeks/months.

Is there a chance something different might happen here? Sure, in the sense that anything is possible in conference realignment. However, the likelihood of some type of March surprise is less than 10%. The only realistic variable is whether spot #12 goes to Dayton or Richmond (with SLU being a virtual lock at #11). The wild cars that I think that you're hoping for (e.g. VCU, Gonzaga) simply aren't likely going to come to fruition. You can hold out hope just like the Old Big East posters constantly like doing (until they feel like they got smacked in the face with bad news that the rest of the world with clear and logical eyes knew had been coming for a long time), but I think you're smart enough to know what's realistic here compared to what you personally want.

I think, much like what Title said if there was consensous- you'd see 12 in the league next year. What sense does it make going 10 then 12 next year at all? To save 2 teams exit fees(which would be mroe than made up in the new league)?

And the fact remains- ESPN has changed their story from forgone conclusion to just leading candidates. That's a HUGE difference.

No it doesnt, because they are still the leading candidates! VCU didn't come flying off the top turnbuckle with a Macho Man Randy Savage elbow drop on top of Dayton and is now a leading candidate. Yeeeeesh

When the heck did I meniton VCU? Give it a break....

Last week- forgone conclusion of the 5
this week- leading candidates. Means there is still a lot of deciding to do and nothing decided at all.

You may want the Tramel 5 railroaded in, but the articles posted late last night and today don't support that at ALL.

Im sorry, if not Dayton and St. Louis who would YOU think gets in? Don't insult my intelligence stever.

(03-07-2013 10:24 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(03-07-2013 10:17 AM)stever20 Wrote:  And the fact remains- ESPN has changed their story from forgone conclusion to just leading candidates. That's a HUGE difference.

I completely disagree with your interpretation of that ESPN story, but it is what it is on that front. You want to hold out hope that Fox is going to force in VCU. I get it. Who knows - maybe that will happen. (I wouldn't bet on it, but I'll allow that nothing is final until it's final.) However, what you're hoping for is coloring what you're reading in this particular case.

I think the fox dynamic is something that can't be ignored. I could see Fox wanting the Richmond area for the Virginia angle(remember, Virginia right now doesn't have FSN access)- so that could be either Richmond or VCU. I could see Fox doing anything to get Gonzaga.

The fact is the story did change. Last week made it seem like it was 99.99% decided who the teams are. If you read the story this week for the first time not knowing the back story, could you say at all that it was 99.99% decided? I don't.