All that is being asked regarding this storm is to hold Obama to the same standard to which Bush was held. Either hold both responsible, or hold neither.

Fairness, objectivity, honesty, and integrity demand that. It is not happening.

I totally agree it is unrealistic for people dealing with the aftereffects of a hurricane/storm to expect ANY real relief from the federal government for 7 days. A full week. It takes time to get the logistics locked in. Local support can be there in a few days but federal support is a week away. This is why it really is critically important to have 7-10 days of food, water, medicines, first aid, etc. stored away. The Memphis area has been fortunate thus far but we are sitting on the New Madrid fault which will eventually shift.

Okay, my prediction on the vote. The bottom line to me is the voters don't turn out for Obama like they did in 2008.

EV - Romney 273 Obama 265.

PV - Romney 51% Obama 48%.

The race is called by most networks around 1145pm CST. MSNBC calls it around Thanksgiving.

I predict a lot of denial, anger, and frustration. I am COMPLETELY confident Obama wins on Tuesday. I really believe the right thinks that have a legit shot here. That's whats crazy imo, both sides think they are going to win.

(11-03-2012 11:10 AM)Machiavelli Wrote:  I predict a lot of denial, anger, and frustration.

Isn't that true after every election, no matter how it turns out?

Quote:I really believe the right thinks that have a legit shot here. That's whats crazy imo, both sides think they are going to win.

Those two comments are slightly in conflict. I think Romney does have "a legit shot" here, yes. I'd put his chances at about 50%. But that is not the same thing as thinking the GOP is "going to" win.

By the way, I agree with Nate Silver about some things. An assessment of probability is NOT the same thing as a prediction. Even if Romney wins, that would not intrinsically discredit Silver's statistical models. And even if Obama wins, that would not intrinsically corroborate them. Of course, the media is not really capable of explaining this in any detail, so a lot of people will say that Silver was either "proven right" or "proven wrong" based on how the election turns out. But -- except for his "bet" thing with Joe Scarborough -- that's not what Nate Silver's writings have been about.

For my part, I will still not believe -- even if Obama wins Virginia and Florida -- that Obama ever had an "80% chance" of winning the election. I think that is absurd. But I agree he could certainly win the election. IT would not shock me at all if he does.

I don't think the enthusiasm gap is being factored in. Obama held a rally yesterday in Cleveland that pulled 4,000. He got 80k this time last campaign. Conversely McCain could barely scratch a few thousand at his rallies at this point but Romney pulled 32k last night in Ohio.

I know it's anecdotal, but that doesn't say to me an inevitability of an Obama win. Then again may hit 11:00 PM Tuesday and realize everything I thought the data was telling me was completely wrong. Anything is possible I guess.

Romney popular vote 52% Obama 47% Other 1%

Electoral Count
Romney 291
Obama 247

(11-02-2012 10:00 AM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:47 AM)Max Power Wrote:  Electoral college: Obama 332, Romney 206

To get 332 Obama has to sweep FL, NC and VA. He is not winning NC. It won't happen. I don't think he wins FL or VA either even if he wins the whole election. The best Obama can do IMO is 281.

I haven't read all the posts, so apologies if this has already been pointed out. But Obama 332-206 implies NC going to Romney. 347-191 would be NC going to Obama.

I think Florida is out of reach for Obama, but Virginia is not out of reach. So I'll say the best Obama can do is 303-235. But yeah I think Virginia will be with Romney when it's all said and done.

269-269

I'll go ahead and make a prediction. Romney wins the popular vote by 1% or less. Obama wins 277 EV and the election.

(11-04-2012 02:06 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 10:00 AM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:47 AM)Max Power Wrote:  Electoral college: Obama 332, Romney 206

To get 332 Obama has to sweep FL, NC and VA. He is not winning NC. It won't happen. I don't think he wins FL or VA either even if he wins the whole election. The best Obama can do IMO is 281.

I haven't read all the posts, so apologies if this has already been pointed out. But Obama 332-206 implies NC going to Romney. 347-191 would be NC going to Obama.

I think Florida is out of reach for Obama, but Virginia is not out of reach. So I'll say the best Obama can do is 303-235. But yeah I think Virginia will be with Romney when it's all said and done.

Yeah I did the math wrong. I thought he had to have NC to get that high.

I'm more confused about the election results today than I ever have been. There is so much conflicting data that it's hard to know what to believe. Gallup, Rass and Pew all have Republican party affiliation essentially equal or ahead of Dems. Yet you have polls giving Obama the lead in Ohio for example with a D +8 sample. You have nearly every poll showing greater republican enthusiasm yet the same poll assumes an '08 electorate turnout for Obama. Note this isn't about weighting, it's about the sample.

Obama may very well turnout a D +8 advantage in these states. I personally believe that to be highly unlikely, but I may very well be wrong.

Someone is getting the data wrong. It will be interesting to see why whoever got it wrong did after the election is over.

Final early vote count in Miami-Dade:

235,733.

In '08 it was 325,903.

Not good news for Obama.

(11-04-2012 08:50 PM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  Final early vote count in Miami-Dade:

235,733.

In '08 it was 325,903.

Not good news for Obama.

I don't think that Obama wins Florida. But the early vote count in Dade, while important to the Dems, is not as important as the early vote count in Broward.

(11-04-2012 08:50 PM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  Final early vote count in Miami-Dade:

235,733.

In '08 it was 325,903.

Not good news for Obama.

Didn't they reduce the number of early voting days in Florida? I know they only had 96 total hours and many counties had less than that. That probably doesn't help the Democrats overall but wouldn't the Republican numbers be down too compared to 2008?

(11-04-2012 09:44 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  

(11-04-2012 08:50 PM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  Final early vote count in Miami-Dade:

235,733.

In '08 it was 325,903.

Not good news for Obama.

Didn't they reduce the number of early voting days in Florida? I know they only had 96 total hours and many counties had less than that. That probably doesn't help the Democrats overall but wouldn't the Republican numbers be down too compared to 2008?

Republicans vote on election day. Early voting is where Dems make their bread and butter.

Republicans are up this cycle.

Votes: 4.3 million

Democrats: 43 percent

Republicans: 40 percent

In 2008 about the same amount case early ballots but Dems had about a 360k vote margin. It's only 129k this time around. Obama only won the state by 204,000 in '08. Of course this is all under the assumption that every D voted for Obama and every R voted for Romney. But the raw numbers aren't good for Obama.

Hours were reduced across the state this time around.

Obama wins the electoral college, that's how it ends. He better not institute another damned assault weapons ban.

Florida reduced the voting hours from 14 days to 8. Why would they do this? People were waiting in line for over 8 hours to vote yesterday and some areas had to turn people away because they ran out of ballots. Why does this happen in urban centers? In this day and age why do we tolerate this? The right screams about voter fraud. When they scream just as loud about these abuses they would gain credibility. Instead they are active participants in the suppresion at the highest levels of govt.

(11-02-2012 10:35 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  I see six states that could still go either way:

Ohio (18 EV)
Virginia (13)
Wisconsin (10)
Colorado (9)
Iowa (6)
New Hampshire (4)

Among the rest, Obama's got 243 EV (this includes Nevada, Michigan, and Pennsylvania) and Romney's got 235 (this includes North Carolina and Florida).
I think Virginia and Colorado tilt ever-so-slightly to Romney; that would put him at 257. Wisconsin tilts to Obama, taking him to 253. Which leaves Iowa, New Hampshire and Ohio as the 3 ultimate toss-ups. Iowa and NH become irrelevant in such a scenario, because both sides would be close enough that just-Ohio-alone would put them over the top, yet not-close-enough for Iowa-&-NH combined to do so.

I honestly expect all three of those states to be decided by <0.5% of the total vote, and even <0.25% really would not surprise me at all. *If* that turns out to be the case, and if the other 47 states fall as I have described, *And* *If* Ohio does, in fact (as reported is likely to happen) have between 300,000-400,000 "provisional" votes cast on Election Day, then we will be faced with a Florida-2000-like scenario all over again, in which Ohio authorities spend some time (a week? a month? longer?) scrutinizing every one of those provisional ballots, and the Dems' and GOP's lawyers try to invalidate each one that is "against" their candidate. Such a scenario would probably wind up in the SCOTUS just as it did 12 years ago with Florida. My instinct right now is that Romney is finally declared the winner in Ohio by ~10,000-12,000 votes, and wins the Electoral College with at least 275, but no more than 285 electoral votes (depending how IA and NH wind up). My prediction of a Romney win in Ohio is offered with about 50% confidence. But I predict with about 99% confidence that Ohio will be in the winner's column. I don't think either Obama or Romney has a viable path to victory without it. And I'll say there's an 80% chance that both candidates get at least 253 EVs from other states, making Ohio's 18 EVs absolutely decisive.

About 130m votes cast nationwide.
Romney to win nationwide popular vote with a margin over Obama of about 1.2%-1.3% (for sheer # of votes, that's about 3x the margin that Gore had over Bush in 2000.) Regardless of how the Electoral College shakes out, Democrats will spend the rest of their lives claiming the recent weather caused Obama's popular-vote loss.

The "exit polls" will apparently exclude a lot of "safe" Blue and Red states; I forget exactly which ones. But I predict that as the data becomes available over the next few months, the consensus will be that the people who voted in the 2012 election were about 37% Democrat and 34% Republican and 29% Independents, Other Parties, or stating no partisan preference.

Third-party candidates get a combined 1.4% (same as 2008). Gary Johnson get about half of that, which works out to a 75% increase over the LP total in 2008. Johnson has run a good race. I was proud to vote for him here in Georgia earlier this week, and look forward to the LP gaining strength in years to come.

I hope you are wrong. If the election is that close, the Ohio recount will make the Florida recount seem sophisticated and efficient. It will be a hellicius 4 weeks. Would love to see MI or PA break Romneys way to avoid a fiasco.(MI long-g-gshot)

(11-03-2012 06:14 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  All that is being asked regarding this storm is to hold Obama to the same standard to which Bush was held. Either hold both responsible, or hold neither.

Fairness, objectivity, honesty, and integrity demand that. It is not happening.

If you hold them to the same standard then you think Bush is a Disaster and Obama is great. Katrina was a *** **** nightmare.. people in NYC are without power. You understand there is a significant difference in how well these things were handled, right? Is your memory gone.. I don't really understand how you can look at these two storms and not appreciate how poorly the first one went and how well this one has been handled. Lines at the gas station & the power being out is not the same as well over a 1,000 people dying.

There's a reason the Republican Governor, keynote speaker, is out there saying Obama did a good job. When the guy who has been railing against you all year says you did a good job.. well perhaps you're handling the situation well.

(11-03-2012 11:10 AM)Machiavelli Wrote:  I predict a lot of denial, anger, and frustration. I am COMPLETELY confident Obama wins on Tuesday. I really believe the right thinks that have a legit shot here. That's whats crazy imo, both sides think they are going to win.

When only one side respects math and statistics, it's not so crazy. If they put more of an emphasis on education they might understand how screwed they are. Ignorance is bliss I suppose.

(11-05-2012 09:23 AM)HuskieFan84 Wrote:  

(11-03-2012 11:10 AM)Machiavelli Wrote:  I predict a lot of denial, anger, and frustration. I am COMPLETELY confident Obama wins on Tuesday. I really believe the right thinks that have a legit shot here. That's whats crazy imo, both sides think they are going to win.

When only one side respects math and statistics, it's not so crazy. If they put more of an emphasis on education they might understand how screwed they are. Ignorance is bliss I suppose.

Agree. Progressives have had control of public education since the beginning, Dewey, Mann, etc. And the ignorance of many subjects, including various maths, is a problem area that is growing. It's a tragedy if you like freedom, but those early progressives were clear that their motivation was to create serfs.