What's that omnipresent disclosure that must be included in financial prospectuses? Ah, yes: "Past performance does not guarantee future results." While it is prudent to examine history to help predict the future, I think it's also important to focus on relevant topics. I don't think that the fact that the Big 12 has lost 4 members in recent years is inherently germane to evaluating possible future expansion, as much as the following factors are:
- Are the remaining/existing members a coherent and cohesive unit?
- Is there significant potential for remaining/existing members to leave for another conference?
- Would any potential additions fit well with the existing members?
- Do any potential additions have a compelling reason to leave their present home, and/or would they be a better fit with the existing members?
I think that it can be reasonably argued that while it may be an uneasy peace, there is now more coherence in the Big 12 than there has been for some time. Nebraska and Texas had been butting heads since the conference was formed. Colorado had history with the old Big 8 schools, but they were always looking west. aTm has also been chafing at UT's influence, and looking for a way to help build their own identity. Missouri has also felt slighted, sometimes for good reason and sometimes not, and when opportunity arose they took their leave. While the remaining schools don't always see eye-to-eye (particularly with UT), I don't think that there's always universal harmony in other conferences either, and I think most existing members see how the Big 12 is a good fit for various reasons.
As for the potential to leave, the two most attractive brands in the conference both have insurmountable (at least for now) stumbling blocks to joining power conferences, and enjoy their position atop the Big 12. The other members don't have any options that are as attractive as the Big 12, and thus have no incentive to leave.
As for potential additions, I think that there are decent arguments that can be made for the four most discussed candidates (Louisville, Cincy, Florida State, and Clemson) as far as fitting into the Big 12.
The stumbling block as I see it, particularly for the ACC teams, is point 4. Even if they would be good fits with the Big 12, would that be a better fit than their present home? It's true that the ACC has underperformed in football, but these things can be cyclical. The ACC is also an exceptional academic conference, with much more prestige than the Big 12. The ACC is also well positioned all along the Eastern Seaboard, which is still the most populated area of the country. Despite any internal disagreements, those schools are also geographically and culturally closer to many ACC schools than to the Big 12.
In an expansion to 14 I would welcome all 4 of those schools. I just don't think that the FSU and Clemson additions are likely to occur.
