(03-01-2026 12:29 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-01-2026 12:12 PM)bullet Wrote:  https://genflynn.substack.com/p/end-of-e...irect=true

Three results:
"...1. Regime hunkers down and offers a deal (”recalibration” or “IRGCistan”). Surviving clerics/IRGC hardliners close ranks around a new figurehead (e.g., Ali Larijani or a council). They trade verifiable nuclear/missile/proxy concessions for sanctions relief and breathing room. This is the most likely near-term outcome if internal cohesion holds: a battered but intact theocracy, more pragmatic out of necessity, but still repressive. No full “victory,” but threats neutered enough for de-escalation. Oil markets stabilize; region breathes—but the underlying ideology festers.

2. Regime fractures and collapses (the high-reward scenario). This comes w/ decapitation plus sustained degradation sparking mass defections, security forces stand down, and protests (building on recent waves) overwhelm remaining loyalists. This is what Trump explicitly called for: “the single greatest chance for the Iranian people to take back their Country.” A potential transition vehicle: Exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi has positioned himself as a non-permanent transitional figure. His publicly outlined plan covers the first 100-180 days: stabilize currency/economy, form a National Reconciliation Council, seize state media for transparent messaging, amnesty for non-criminal regime elements, humanitarian corridors, and rapid move to a new secular constitution plus internationally supervised elections. He frames it as “maximum support for the people plus maximum pressure on the regime” to trigger internal tipping points.

Upside: A secular, democratic Iran ends 46 years of theocracy, sponsorship of terror, and nuclear roulette. A regional peace dividend (no more Axis of Resistance funding), economic reopening to Western investment, and a historic win for the Iranian people who’ve shown in repeated uprisings they reject the regime.

Downside risks: Power vacuum invites ethnic/sectarian score-settling (Kurds, Baloch, Arabs, Azeris), IRGC remnants turning insurgent, refugee waves, or looting of remaining WMD assets. Without boots on the ground, external influence is limited to aid, broadcasting, and diplomacy.

3. Prolonged mess or state failure. This comes w/ a partial collapse without coherent opposition leadership. Instead, it entails militias, warlordism, or civil strife akin to post-2011 Libya (not a full Iraq 2003 redux since no occupation). Proxies flare; Gulf states get dragged in deeper; China/Russia exploit chaos for influence. This is the nightmare that “euphoria” blinds people to...history shows airpower degrades regimes but rarely installs stable successors alone.

The key is leaving most of the regular Iranian military functional---while decimating the Islamic Revolutionary Guards forces. Our biggest mistake in Iraq was immediately dissolving the Iraqi Army---which left the US Army holding the bag containing compete responsibility for all state security. I suspect we probably initially end up with a regular military government in control of Iran (not the Revolutionary Guards)---but hopefully these generals would quickly move to turn it over to the people by holding elections.

The Revolutionary Guard needs to be neutered. I've read that the US Navy had respectful relations with the regular Iranian Navy. It was the Revolutionary Guard that were the issues.

Trump announces Naval forces have sunk 9 Iranian naval ships.

I was aware we sunk an Iranian corvette called the Jamaran in the Gulf of Oman. Below is the vessels wikipedia page. Not sure what the others are. They had 3 Kilo class subs in port at the docks---I wouldnt be surprised if we took those out as they are fairly quiet subs and could be dangerous.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IRIS_Jamaran_(76)

(03-01-2026 01:02 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I was aware we sunk an Iranian corvette called the Jamaran the Gulf of Oman. Below is the vessels wikipedia page. Not sure what the others are. They had 3 Kilo class subs in port at the docks---I wouldnt be surprised if we took those out as they are fairly quiet subs and could be dangerous.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IRIS_Jamaran_(76)

There was a comment that one of the goals was to eliminate the navy. They definitely need to put a hole in every Republican Guard vessel.

(03-01-2026 01:07 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-01-2026 01:02 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I was aware we sunk an Iranian corvette called the Jamaran the Gulf of Oman. Below is the vessels wikipedia page. Not sure what the others are. They had 3 Kilo class subs in port at the docks---I wouldnt be surprised if we took those out as they are fairly quiet subs and could be dangerous.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IRIS_Jamaran_(76)

There was a comment that one of the goals was to eliminate the navy. They definitely need to put a hole in every Republican Guard vessel.

We're doing that right now, per Trump's latest Truth Social post.

Also, there's a rally of pro-strike Iranian-Americans gathered near the U.N. building.

According to Amir Tsarfati over 1k Basij members have been killed in the airstrikes so far. Basij Militia are part of the IRGC

(03-01-2026 12:28 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(03-01-2026 12:22 PM)TripleA Wrote:  From the IDF, reported through Fox News: "All senior leaders of terrorist orgs in Iran have now been eliminated."

Well, that took a fast day and a half, lol.

Wonder how this would have gone with that fat face shield wearing DEI General in charge of the DoD?

Funny, I had that thought, too. First of all, none of them would have had the balls to do this. Second, they would have screwed it up.

Same with taking Maduro.

By the way, this is for the leftists on this board. Here's a tweet featuring an Iranian-American who's done with the Democrats.

(03-01-2026 01:07 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-01-2026 01:02 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I was aware we sunk an Iranian corvette called the Jamaran the Gulf of Oman. Below is the vessels wikipedia page. Not sure what the others are. They had 3 Kilo class subs in port at the docks---I wouldnt be surprised if we took those out as they are fairly quiet subs and could be dangerous.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IRIS_Jamaran_(76)

There was a comment that one of the goals was to eliminate the navy. They definitely need to put a hole in every Republican Guard vessel.

For sure. My guess was they would spare the regular navy vessels that did not sortie from port---but Revolutionary Guard vessels would be blasted where ever they were found---be they at sea or at a dock. But that may not end up being the case---perhaps as a result of officially closing the Straight (though the Guards are who made that announcement).

(03-01-2026 01:11 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(03-01-2026 12:28 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(03-01-2026 12:22 PM)TripleA Wrote:  From the IDF, reported through Fox News: "All senior leaders of terrorist orgs in Iran have now been eliminated."

Well, that took a fast day and a half, lol.

Wonder how this would have gone with that fat face shield wearing DEI General in charge of the DoD?

Funny, I had that thought, too. First of all, none of them would have had the balls to do this. Second, they would have screwed it up.

Same with taking Maduro.

It looks like they did limit Venezuela to a Noriega type deal. Nab the drug lord, even if he is president, and throw him in an American prison.

(03-01-2026 01:26 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-01-2026 01:11 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(03-01-2026 12:28 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(03-01-2026 12:22 PM)TripleA Wrote:  From the IDF, reported through Fox News: "All senior leaders of terrorist orgs in Iran have now been eliminated."

Well, that took a fast day and a half, lol.

Wonder how this would have gone with that fat face shield wearing DEI General in charge of the DoD?

Funny, I had that thought, too. First of all, none of them would have had the balls to do this. Second, they would have screwed it up.

Same with taking Maduro.

It looks like they did limit Venezuela to a Noriega type deal. Nab the drug lord, even if he is president, and throw him in an American prison.

My point was the Dems would have screwed that up, too, regardless of the depth or breadth of the mission.

(03-01-2026 01:58 PM)shere khan Wrote:  

Just an observation - with most of our military actions over the last several decades we get ongoing video footage from the DoW showing strikes, as made famous in 1991 on CNN when we attack Iraq. Very little to none now.

Just wondering if it’s a complete shift. Don’t get me wrong, I think they should not broadcast what they are hitting and where as it just provides free intelligence to the enemy, just noticed the change.

Pro-Palestinian Columbia University Student Group Posts “Marg Bar Amrika” (Death to America)

Quote:An unofficial Columbia University student group, the pro-Palestinian ‘Columbia University Apartheid Divest’ posted “marg bar amrika,” the Islamist Iranian regime chant that means, “death to America,” to X Saturday in response to the killing of Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ale Khamenei in joint U.S.-Israeli air strikes.

They are free to say what they want. Its an unofficial student group.

Now if they are here on a student visa, it should be revoked at the end of the semester. We don't need people who hate us here. That's common sense.

(03-01-2026 02:23 PM)banker Wrote:  Just an observation - with most of our military actions over the last several decades we get ongoing video footage from the DoW showing strikes, as made famous in 1991 on CNN when we attack Iraq. Very little to none now.

Just wondering if it’s a complete shift. Don’t get me wrong, I think they should not broadcast what they are hitting and where as it just provides free intelligence to the enemy, just noticed the change.

I agree with you. It's just smarter PR. Don't give the enemy pictures of explosions and they can't drag the bodies to the site to claim you killed innocents. We've given enemies of freedom too much PR in the name of a free press. Nightly news coverage killed public sentiment during the Viet Nam era. I think we wanted the world to see the coalition of forces in Iraq and the projected strength of our military which had suffered perceptually far more than in reality. IMO what happened in Venezuela and is happening now in Iran is not as visual because in both exercises, we want to keep good will for sympathetic parties in those countries. We want not to show our process and use of technology in real time. And we don't show footage because we don't want footage available for adversaries to use against their citizens who are hostile to their regimes. We want to make it easier for the coming regime change, which is the objective, to transpire. We are therefore not (literally) seen as an aggressor, but as a liberating ally.

(03-01-2026 02:37 PM)bullet Wrote:  They are free to say what they want. Its an unofficial student group.

Now if they are here on a student visa, it should be revoked at the end of the semester. We don't need people who hate us here. That's common sense.

Won't wait until the end of the semester.

See ya.

(03-01-2026 02:18 PM)CrimsonPhantom Wrote:  

(03-01-2026 01:58 PM)shere khan Wrote:  

Crazy how the Iranians are just slinging these things at anything they can hit. All this accomplishes is increasing the size of the coalition arrayed against them. lol---Apparently, they arent very smart over there.