(12-17-2025 11:27 AM)Bill Marsh Wrote:  The Northwestern game will tell us a lot because on paper, these 2 teams are evenly matched. If either team wins big, it could be a good omen for them.

I picked Butler simply because the game is being played in Indianapolis. But we actually have more to go on. In an unusual development for 2 teams in different conferences, they have 2 common opponents, with all 4 games having been played on neutral courts - Virginia & South Carolina. Butler won both of those games, each by 7 points, Northwestern split their 2 games, beating South Carolina by 2 and losing to UVA by 5.

Those neutral court games are why I personally gave the edge to Butler. The fact that it's home should be even more of an advantage. I'm not predicting, but also wouldn't be shocked, if they win that game by 10 or more.

In regards to your other comment, appreciate your feedback. I agree that many of the games are tossups. I could see why you don't expect them to win @Providence, since it took double OT for them to even win at home and it is very tough to win there. But I personally just don't think Providence is as good as many of us expected them to be at the beginning of the season. They haven't really shown me much. My thinking is that by that point in the season the game will be almost meaningless to Providence but very meaningful to Butler, and they'll perform much better in the rematch as a result.

However I can easily acknowledge I'm looking at this through rose colored glasses as I want them to get a bid, and I may be way off here. Not just with the Providence game but with the whole prediction. I often bounce things like this around in my head and figured I would finally write one out and see if anyone agreed lol. There's been good discussion in this thread so perhaps I'll do these more often.

(12-17-2025 10:58 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  I predict Butler loses to Northwestern and goes 1-4 in these five BE games: @Creighton, Villanova, St Johns, @Xavier and @Seton Hall.

As to an at-large bid: The safe bet is on no bid.

I was thinking 1-4 may be more likely than 0-5 as well. My gut was telling me 0-5 so that's what I went with, haha. I think if they do win one of those games, Nova at home is the most likely. With either @Creighton or @Xavier next in line.

Good point about Providence not having shown much. They’ve lost to every good (top 100) team they’ve played and while they’ve beaten everyone else, some of those like Brown and Holy Cross have been closer than they should have been.

I think until they get into conference play, however, we don’t really know a lot about them. Ultimately that’s why I have trouble trying to make forecasts this early in the season. They have some good talent, so I’m more wait and see with them.

(12-17-2025 12:43 PM)Nameless Wrote:  

(12-17-2025 10:58 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  I predict Butler loses to Northwestern and goes 1-4 in these five BE games: @Creighton, Villanova, St Johns, @Xavier and @Seton Hall.

As to an at-large bid: The safe bet is on no bid.

I was thinking 1-4 may be more likely than 0-5 as well. My gut was telling me 0-5 so that's what I went with, haha. I think if they do win one of those games, Nova at home is the most likely. With either @Creighton or @Xavier next in line.

I agree.

(12-17-2025 11:27 AM)Bill Marsh Wrote:  The Northwestern game will tell us a lot because on paper, these 2 teams are evenly matched. If either team wins big, it could be a good omen for them.

I picked Butler simply because the game is being played in Indianapolis. But we actually have more to go on. In an unusual development for 2 teams in different conferences, they have 2 common opponents, with all 4 games having been played on neutral courts - Virginia & South Carolina. Butler won both of those games, each by 7 points, Northwestern split their 2 games, beating South Carolina by 2 and losing to UVA by 5.

Good points, Bill. Looking at it like this, Butler should be in good shape to play Northwestern.

I was thinking more in terms of the intangible element of the Big East struggling some this season against the all-sports P4 (in general). For example, I could see not only Northwestern topping Butler but Kentucky beating Saint John's and Wisconsin besting Nova. Hoping for at least two BE wins with those three. But 0-3 is just as possible as 3-0. We'll see this weekend.

(12-17-2025 01:58 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(12-17-2025 11:27 AM)Bill Marsh Wrote:  The Northwestern game will tell us a lot because on paper, these 2 teams are evenly matched. If either team wins big, it could be a good omen for them.

I picked Butler simply because the game is being played in Indianapolis. But we actually have more to go on. In an unusual development for 2 teams in different conferences, they have 2 common opponents, with all 4 games having been played on neutral courts - Virginia & South Carolina. Butler won both of those games, each by 7 points, Northwestern split their 2 games, beating South Carolina by 2 and losing to UVA by 5.

Good points, Bill. Looking at it like this, Butler should be in good shape to play Northwestern.

I was thinking more in terms of the intangible element of the Big East struggling some this season against the all-sports P4 (in general). For example, I could see not only Northwestern topping Butler but Kentucky beating Saint John's and Wisconsin besting Nova. Hoping for at least two BE wins with those three. But 0-3 is just as possible as 3-0. We'll see this weekend.

Interesting. Should be a fun weekend. My gut tells me that the BE sweeps, which is of course crazy, but I like what I’ve seen of Villanova so far.

St. John’s and Kentucky are both loaded with talent. Kentucky had lost to every good school they played until their recent win over Indiana at home.st. John’s has not played as tough a schedule, but they do have wins over Baylor and Mississippi.

The biggest difference between these 2 programs right now is that St. John’s has a Hall of Fame coach while Kentucky’s Mark Pope has only made it to the tournament 3 times in his 10 years of coaching so far. He may have a great future ahead of him, but so far he doesn’t have the record to turn anyone's head.

I like St. John’s in this game.

(12-17-2025 02:37 PM)Bill Marsh Wrote:  

(12-17-2025 01:58 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(12-17-2025 11:27 AM)Bill Marsh Wrote:  The Northwestern game will tell us a lot because on paper, these 2 teams are evenly matched. If either team wins big, it could be a good omen for them.

I picked Butler simply because the game is being played in Indianapolis. But we actually have more to go on. In an unusual development for 2 teams in different conferences, they have 2 common opponents, with all 4 games having been played on neutral courts - Virginia & South Carolina. Butler won both of those games, each by 7 points, Northwestern split their 2 games, beating South Carolina by 2 and losing to UVA by 5.

Good points, Bill. Looking at it like this, Butler should be in good shape to play Northwestern.

I was thinking more in terms of the intangible element of the Big East struggling some this season against the all-sports P4 (in general). For example, I could see not only Northwestern topping Butler but Kentucky beating Saint John's and Wisconsin besting Nova. Hoping for at least two BE wins with those three. But 0-3 is just as possible as 3-0. We'll see this weekend.

Interesting. Should be a fun weekend. My gut tells me that the BE sweeps, which is of course crazy, but I like what I’ve seen of Villanova so far.

St. John’s and Kentucky are bith loaded with talent. Kentucky had lost to every good school they played until their recent win over Indiana at home.st. John’s has not played as tough a schedule, but they do have wins over Baylor and Mississippi.

The biggest difference between these 2 programs right now is that St. John’s has a Hall of Fame coach while Kentucky’s Mark Pope has only made it to the tournament 3 times in his 10 years of coaching so far. He may have a great future ahead of him, but so far he doesn’t have the record to turn anyone's head.

I like St. John’s in this game.

it's just tough for me with Nova given what their schedule has been to really say that. played 2 real teams and lost to both of them. Basically going to be a road game- only 3rd time playing a game outside of the Philly area. 0-2 1st 2 times.

Starts a really crucial stretch for Nova. 4 of their easiest 8 conference games are coming up. With 2 Q1 games mixed in there as well.
@ Seton Hall Q1
DePaul Q3
@ Butler Q1
Creighton Q3
@ Marquette Q3
@ Providence Q3

I agree that Villanova has played a weak schedule except for the 2 real teams. To be fair, those two are ranked #1 and #6 and one of those was on the road. The BYU loss was by 5 points, went down to the wire. And Devin Askew, their 2nd best 3-point shooter who was returning from a preseason injury, was able to play only 13 minutes and didn’t make a shot. So, we have two extremes by which to judge them - two games vs top 6 teams or a bunch of cupcakes.

I was encouraged by their last game against Pitt. Not exactly a cupcake, ranked #116 on Ken Pom and #103 on Greenfield. In that game, they did what they do best, shot 41% from 3, assisted on 20 of 26 made baskets, and turned the ball over only 3 times. They are in fact top 50 in the country in 3-pointers made per game, assists/turnover ratio, and fewest turnovers per game.

This game figures to be dead even. Villanova is ranked 35 on Ken Pom and 40 on Greenfield, Wisconsins is 37 and 38. With the game being played in Milwaukee, Wisconsin should have the edge. But they don’t have the familiarity of a court they practice on or even play any other games on during the season. Their one common opponent is BYU. Nova lost by 5, Wiscy lost by 18. Nova is coming off the win over Pitt, Wiscy is coming off a 30 point drubbing by Nebraska.

Wisconsin should be favored by, let’s say 2 points. But I’ll go with my gut on this one.

So, Dayton had a commercial air during the Creighton-Xavier game

uh Creighton the season started 44 days ago. Glad of you to finally show up.

(12-17-2025 07:42 PM)stever20 Wrote:  uh Creighton the season started 44 days ago. Glad of you to finally show up.

Lol.

"OK guys, we tanked the non con. We can start winning now that we're in conference play."

I didn’t see the game, so I’m left to wonder why Tre Carroll was limited to only 17 minutes in Xavier’s loss to Creighton last night?

(12-17-2025 07:28 PM)gosports1 Wrote:  So, Dayton had a commercial air during the Creighton-Xavier game

Lmao

(12-17-2025 07:28 PM)gosports1 Wrote:  So, Dayton had a commercial air during the Creighton-Xavier game

Marquette has been impersonating a basketball team the past four weeks. We might have an imposter in our ranks.

(12-18-2025 05:55 AM)Bill Marsh Wrote:  I didn’t see the game, so I’m left to wonder why Tre Carroll was limited to only 17 minutes in Xavier’s loss to Creighton last night?

From what I just read, Creighton closed the first half on a 40-12 run to go into halftime up 49-22. I'm assuming both Milicevic and Carroll were benched for most of the 2nd half since both played 18 and 17 minutes, respectively. I figure it was a coach benching most of his starters for such a poor performance to open conference play (at home no less), him letting the deep bench get more run, or a combination of the 2. N'Diaye played 24 minutes and seemed to have a solid game, so it's possible he was doing things better than them and Pitino benched them to prove a point. "If you don't do the little things you're not going to play. I don't care who you are." That type of mentality

(12-18-2025 08:07 AM)Nameless Wrote:  

(12-18-2025 05:55 AM)Bill Marsh Wrote:  I didn’t see the game, so I’m left to wonder why Tre Carroll was limited to only 17 minutes in Xavier’s loss to Creighton last night?

From what I just read, Creighton closed the first half on a 40-12 run to go into halftime up 49-22. I'm assuming both Milicevic and Carroll were benched for most of the 2nd half since both played 18 and 17 minutes, respectively. I figure it was a coach benching most of his starters for such a poor performance to open conference play (at home no less), him letting the deep bench get more run, or a combination of the 2. N'Diaye played 24 minutes and seemed to have a solid game, so it's possible he was doing things better than them and Pitino benched them to prove a point. "If you don't do the little things you're not going to play. I don't care who you are." That type of mentality

yeah the 2 quarter scores on KP was 24-16 and then 25-6.

It would appear that the defense was totally lacking. Creighton shot 60% overall and 48% from 3. I don’t know that they put up those numbers in practice.

Torvik tournament percentages:

UConn: 100%
St. John's: 99.2%
Seton Hall: 53.4%
Villanova: 53.3%
Butler: 29.9%
Creighton: 16.4%
Providence: 2.1%

The other four are under 1%.

NET rankings this morning:

UConn (7)
St. John's (23)
Villanova (36)
Seton Hall (37)
Butler (46)
Creighton (79)
Providence (93)
Georgetown (111)
Xavier (137)
DePaul (147)
Marquette (173)

Villanova is playing Wisconsin in Milwaukee tomorrow. A win there IMO would put their tourney odds over 60%.

Seton Hall is playing Providence on the road. Similarly, a win there would put their tourney odds over 60%.

Those are the two scenarios we need to root for.

Saturday, I would root for St. John's over Kentucky, Butler over Northwestern, Georgetown over Xavier, and Creighton over Marquette.

I did Torvik's team cast for the following teams (for just getting in) and here are results (I had all teams going 0-4 against UConn and St. John's for worst case scenario):

Villanova: including a loss to Wisconsin and loss to Butler in BET quarterfinals, they were the last team in at 20-12 (12-8).
Seton Hall: including a loss to Butler in BET quarterfinals (and loss to Providence tomorrow), they were the third to last team in at 21-11 (11-9)
Butler: including a loss to Nova in the BET quarterfinals (and loss to Northwestern tomorrow), they were the third to last team in at 21-11 (13-7)
Creighton: including a loss to Nova in the BET quarterfinals, they were the third to last team in at 20-12 (14-6)
Providence: is screwed. With a loss to Georgetown in the BET quarterfinals, Providence needs to go 23-9 (16-4) with a home win over St. John's to get in. This is the one prediction I think is harsh, but it's over for them.
Georgetown: assuming a loss to Nova in BET quarterfinals, they would be first team to get bye by going.....25-7 (17-3). To be fair, I did not put margin of victory in and this seems off.

Though people seem to think the BE is down, it is actually slightly better than last year % wise and in Torvik. I see a different trend no one is talking about: the original six eastern schools are performing at a high level overall and the five western (and arguably lesser brands) are struggling- which if reversed would be a huge problem.

East:
UConn (potential #1 seed)
St. John's (top 25 team)
Nova (bubble team)
Seton Hall (bubble team)
Georgetown (wrong side of bubble but respectable)
Providence (wrong side of bubble but respectable- needs new coach)

West:
Butler (bubble team)
Creighton (bubble team)
Xavier (stink)
Marquette (stink)
DePaul (stink)