Games remaining:


P4 games:

Villanova @ Wisconsin (12/19)
St. John's vs. Kentucky (Atlanta) (12/20)
Butler vs. Northwestern (12/20)

Cupcake games:

Butler vs. NJIT (12/22)
Georgetown vs. Coppin State (12/22)
Creighton vs. Utah Tech (12/22)
St. John's vs. Harvard (12/23)


The league sits at 20-27 overall against the P4. To beat last year's winning percentage of 43.9%, we need to win two of the final three contest agains the P4 (very doable).

We also need to take care of business against the four cupcakes. If we do, we will only have six losses against teams outside of the P4, which is very impressive.


With regards to bids, if we go 6-1 the rest of the way, I believe we will end up anywhere between 3-5 bids depending on what happens in the league. Ultimately I believe we end up with four bids.

Field prognostication based solely on resume so far:

Lock: UConn
Should be in: St. John's, Seton Hall
Work left to do: Butler, Villanova

Out: Marquette, Creighton, Xavier, DePaul, Georgetown, Providence

I'm going to play predictor here for a moment and say the league wins six of the final seven with Nova being the only loss.

Here is how I see the final standings:

1. UConn 18-2 (29-2)*
2. St. John's 15-5 (23-8)*
3. Seton Hall 13-7 (23-8)*
4. Villanova 13-7 (21-10)*
5. Butler 11-9 (20-11)
6. Creighton 10-10 (16-15)
7. Xavier 8-12 (16-15)
8. Providence 7-13 (14-17)
9. Marquette 6-14 (11-20)
10. Georgetown 6-14 (14-17)
11. DePaul 3-17 (11-20)

*= NCAA tournament teams

Side bar: Nova beats Butler in a win and your in BET quarterfinal

Tournament seeds:

UConn: 1
St. John's: 6
Seton Hall: 10
Villanova: 11 (Dayton)

Butler: first four out
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(12-14-2025 08:34 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  Games remaining:


P4 games:

Villanova @ Wisconsin (12/19)
St. John's vs. Kentucky (Atlanta) (12/20)
Butler vs. Northwestern (12/20)

Cupcake games:

Butler vs. NJIT (12/22)
Georgetown vs. Coppin State (12/22)
Creighton vs. Utah Tech (12/22)
St. John's vs. Harvard (12/23)


The league sits at 20-27 overall against the P4. To beat last year's winning percentage of 43.9%, we need to win two of the final three contest agains the P4 (very doable).

We also need to take care of business against the four cupcakes. If we do, we will only have six losses against teams outside of the P4, which is very impressive.


With regards to bids, if we go 6-1 the rest of the way, I believe we will end up anywhere between 3-5 bids depending on what happens in the league. Ultimately I believe we end up with four bids.

Field prognostication based solely on resume so far:

Lock: UConn
Should be in: St. John's, Seton Hall
Work left to do: Butler, Villanova

Out: Marquette, Creighton, Xavier, DePaul, Georgetown, Providence

I'm going to play predictor here for a moment and say the league wins six of the final seven with Nova being the only loss.

Here is how I see the final standings:

1. UConn 18-2 (29-2)*
2. St. John's 15-5 (23-8)*
3. Seton Hall 13-7 (23-8)*
4. Villanova 13-7 (21-10)*
5. Butler 11-9 (20-11)
6. Creighton 10-10 (16-15)
7. Xavier 8-12 (16-15)
8. Providence 7-13 (14-17)
9. Marquette 6-14 (11-20)
10. Georgetown 6-14 (14-17)
11. DePaul 3-17 (11-20)

*= NCAA tournament teams

Side bar: Nova beats Butler in a win and your in BET quarterfinal

Tournament seeds:

UConn: 1
St. John's: 6
Seton Hall: 10
Villanova: 11 (Dayton)

Butler: first four out
Reply Report Edit Delete

I think in your scenario Nova would be extremely precarious. Would really depend on what the 13 conference wins were. if they were mostly home wins and road wins vs teams like DePaul and Marquette- I dunno. Like I've said, they really need the Wisconsin game.

Creighton is the weird one for me. I just find it so tough to believe what's happened.

The 3 P4 games this week are all even matchups. With home court advantage going to Wisconsin and Butler in those to “neutral” court matchups, the “home” teams should win. I like St. John’s over Kentucky, making it 2 of 3 for the Big East.

Color me crazy, but I’m picking a Big East sweep in these 3 games.

An outstanding job by Mr. Shizz to provide stats and context. Well done.

And, yes, Bill Marsh, I'll "color you somewhat crazy" for predicting a sweep in the three Big East games involving the all-sports P4 trio. In fact, there is a better chance the BE goes 0-3 than 3-0. My prediction is 2-1 for the BE, which would be strong. But 1-2 is possible. Wisconsin, Kentucky and Northwestern are each very competitive.

Another point: I feel very confident the Big East will not be limited to only two at-large (so, three total) for the Big Dance. I feel the league will land either three or four at-large (for four or five total).

Shizzle787 notes the BE has only six losses to teams not part of the all-sports P4. That seems outstanding. What's the overall record vs. the non-P4 at this point?

With the caveat I was about as wrong as can be with my pre season predictions, here's what I see going forward. Four bids this year, UConn, St John's, Nova and Hall. Those will also be the only teams with a winning record in BE play, although I'm guessing Xavier finishes 10-10.

With the big games this weekend, I think Butler will be a small favorite , while both Nova and St. John's will be small underdogs. I guess you have to be happy if we get two of the three.

My thinking, and to Traderwill's point, is the Big East would be best served to have four teams (or even three, though that would be "bad optics") that are collectively "very strong" to make the NCAA Tournament as opposed to five teams that are collectively "somewhat strong." The former scenario maximizes (more so than otherwise) as many BE teams as possible advancing in the tourney as far as possible.

In other words: Quality over quantity.

I’m looking forward to watching how teams develop. By its nature, college teams are in a developmental process throughout the season - today more so than ever. Trying to project how teams will finish based on what they’ve done in November and early December limits us to what we can see only in the rear view mirror.

Seton Hall & Butler have been pleasant surprises and Creighton has been a major disappointment. I think that Georgetown still has the potential to emerge as the season moves forward into January and February.

We’ll see what continues to develop.

(12-15-2025 01:00 PM)Bill Marsh Wrote:  I’m looking forward to watching how teams develop. By its nature, college teams are in a developmental process throughout the season - today more so than ever. Trying to project how teams will finish based on what they’ve done in November and early December limits us to what we can see only in the rear view mirror.

Seton Hall & Butler have been pleasant surprises and Creighton has been a major disappointment. I think that Georgetown still has the potential to emerge as the season moves forward into January and February.

We’ll see what continues to develop.

An excellent point, Bill. Who would have thought midway through the 2023-24 season that N.C. State would advance to the Final Four? Nobody.

The season is long and still offers great potential for many teams and conferences.

I hope your thoughts on Georgetown prove accurate!

(12-15-2025 03:08 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(12-15-2025 01:00 PM)Bill Marsh Wrote:  I’m looking forward to watching how teams develop. By its nature, college teams are in a developmental process throughout the season - today more so than ever. Trying to project how teams will finish based on what they’ve done in November and early December limits us to what we can see only in the rear view mirror.

Seton Hall & Butler have been pleasant surprises and Creighton has been a major disappointment. I think that Georgetown still has the potential to emerge as the season moves forward into January and February.

We’ll see what continues to develop.

An excellent point, Bill. Who would have thought midway through the 2023-24 season that N.C. State would advance to the Final Four? Nobody.

The season is long and still offers great potential for many teams and conferences.

I hope your thoughts on Georgetown prove accurate!

Who would have thought that about NC St. even in early March just before the ACC tournament?

(12-15-2025 05:12 PM)Nukem2 Wrote:  

(12-15-2025 03:08 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(12-15-2025 01:00 PM)Bill Marsh Wrote:  I’m looking forward to watching how teams develop. By its nature, college teams are in a developmental process throughout the season - today more so than ever. Trying to project how teams will finish based on what they’ve done in November and early December limits us to what we can see only in the rear view mirror.

Seton Hall & Butler have been pleasant surprises and Creighton has been a major disappointment. I think that Georgetown still has the potential to emerge as the season moves forward into January and February.

We’ll see what continues to develop.

An excellent point, Bill. Who would have thought midway through the 2023-24 season that N.C. State would advance to the Final Four? Nobody.

The season is long and still offers great potential for many teams and conferences.

I hope your thoughts on Georgetown prove accurate!

Who would have thought that about NC St. even in early March just before the ACC tournament?

Very good point. I watch some NC State hoops every year and recall at the end of the regular season how Kevin Keatts was on the hot seat. That run to the Final Four saved his job — for a mere one year.

(12-15-2025 10:09 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  An outstanding job by Mr. Shizz to provide stats and context. Well done.

And, yes, Bill Marsh, I'll "color you somewhat crazy" for predicting a sweep in the three Big East games involving the all-sports P4 trio. In fact, there is a better chance the BE goes 0-3 than 3-0. My prediction is 2-1 for the BE, which would be strong. But 1-2 is possible. Wisconsin, Kentucky and Northwestern are each very competitive.

Another point: I feel very confident the Big East will not be limited to only two at-large (so, three total) for the Big Dance. I feel the league will land either three or four at-large (for four or five total).

Shizzle787 notes the BE has only six losses to teams not part of the all-sports P4. That seems outstanding. What's the overall record vs. the non-P4 at this point?

61-6

(12-15-2025 09:37 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(12-15-2025 10:09 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  An outstanding job by Mr. Shizz to provide stats and context. Well done.

And, yes, Bill Marsh, I'll "color you somewhat crazy" for predicting a sweep in the three Big East games involving the all-sports P4 trio. In fact, there is a better chance the BE goes 0-3 than 3-0. My prediction is 2-1 for the BE, which would be strong. But 1-2 is possible. Wisconsin, Kentucky and Northwestern are each very competitive.

Another point: I feel very confident the Big East will not be limited to only two at-large (so, three total) for the Big Dance. I feel the league will land either three or four at-large (for four or five total).

Shizzle787 notes the BE has only six losses to teams not part of the all-sports P4. That seems outstanding. What's the overall record vs. the non-P4 at this point?

61-6

thanks for the update. that's a strong record, too

So after our game with Butler last night, I went and looked at their schedule. They put up a good fight but as Hurley said in the immediate interview post game we should have won by 25-30, we just have no killer instinct yet.

This was slightly concerning to me, because I really want Butler to make the tournament this year. They seem to follow a pattern most years where they do really well OOC, but then fall off in conference play. A couple years ago, they were on the bubble for most of the season thanks to a decent performance in conference play, and with them being one of the better NET teams in the league this year, I was hoping they would have another strong performance and potentially make the dance.

So considering all of that, as well as how teams in the league have performed this year, here is my detailed prediction for the rest of Butler's season:

They currently sit at 8-3 (1-1) with what should be a really good win over Virginia and no losses to bad teams. They have 2 more OOC games, NJIT and Northwestern. I think they win both and get to 10-3, with wins over South Carolina, Virginia and Northwestern they seem like a bubble team to most observers as league play ramps up for them.

However, this is where their season hits a rough patch. After NJIT, they play @Creighton (down this year but always a tough place to play), Villanova, St Johns, @Xavier and @Seton Hall. I predict they lose all 5 of these games. With their record sitting at 10-8 (1-6) casual fans outside of the Big East and pundits alike collectively forget about Butler as a potential tournament team and they quietly fall out of the bubble discussion.

They rebound a bit after this and beat Marquette and DePaul, but then lose a close one @St John's. They now sit at 12-9 (3-7) with one game left before February. Feeling the sense of urgency and with the schedule softening up, they put their heads down, go to work and go on a nice run. They win 3 in a row, Georgetown, @Providence and @Marquette. The Providence win is big because it is their first Q2 win or better in league play. With UConn coming to town, they play their best game but fall just short of the upset to get to 15-10 (6-8) and start appearing in the "work left to do" category of most bubble watch lists. They then beat Seton Hall, win @Georgetown and take down Xavier at home to get to 18-10 (9-8).

Their game @Nova now looms large, as it is a Q1 game that they desperately need to add to their profile. Despite having lost to Nova at home earlier in the year, they go on the road and win a nail biter in one of those thrilling late season games. They finish the regular season beating Creighton and winning @DePaul. Final regular season record of 21-10 (12-8) and they are tracking as one of the first four in heading into the Big East Tournament. In this scenario, they obviously mirror what Xavier did last year quite well.

What do y'all think? No idea what compelled me to do this last night, but figured I would share it since I did. I know at the very least it will be fun to come back and check this prediction as the season progresses.

(12-17-2025 08:19 AM)Nameless Wrote:  So after our game with Butler last night, I went and looked at their schedule. They put up a good fight but as Hurley said in the immediate interview post game we should have won by 25-30, we just have no killer instinct yet.

This was slightly concerning to me, because I really want Butler to make the tournament this year. They seem to follow a pattern most years where they do really well OOC, but then fall off in conference play. A couple years ago, they were on the bubble for most of the season thanks to a decent performance in conference play, and with them being one of the better NET teams in the league this year, I was hoping they would have another strong performance and potentially make the dance.

So considering all of that, as well as how teams in the league have performed this year, here is my detailed prediction for the rest of Butler's season:

They currently sit at 8-3 (1-1) with what should be a really good win over Virginia and no losses to bad teams. They have 2 more OOC games, NJIT and Northwestern. I think they win both and get to 10-3, with wins over South Carolina, Virginia and Northwestern they seem like a bubble team to most observers as league play ramps up for them.

However, this is where their season hits a rough patch. After NJIT, they play @Creighton (down this year but always a tough place to play), Villanova, St Johns, @Xavier and @Seton Hall. I predict they lose all 5 of these games. With their record sitting at 10-8 (1-6) casual fans outside of the Big East and pundits alike collectively forget about Butler as a potential tournament team and they quietly fall out of the bubble discussion.

They rebound a bit after this and beat Marquette and DePaul, but then lose a close one @St John's. They now sit at 12-9 (3-7) with one game left before February. Feeling the sense of urgency and with the schedule softening up, they put their heads down, go to work and go on a nice run. They win 3 in a row, Georgetown, @Providence and @Marquette. The Providence win is big because it is their first Q2 win or better in league play. With UConn coming to town, they play their best game but fall just short of the upset to get to 15-10 (6-8) and start appearing in the "work left to do" category of most bubble watch lists. They then beat Seton Hall, win @Georgetown and take down Xavier at home to get to 18-10 (9-8).

Their game @Nova now looms large, as it is a Q1 game that they desperately need to add to their profile. Despite having lost to Nova at home earlier in the year, they go on the road and win a nail biter in one of those thrilling late season games. They finish the regular season beating Creighton and winning @DePaul. Final regular season record of 21-10 (12-8) and they are tracking as one of the first four in heading into the Big East Tournament. In this scenario, they obviously mirror what Xavier did last year quite well.

What do y'all think? No idea what compelled me to do this last night, but figured I would share it since I did. I know at the very least it will be fun to come back and check this prediction as the season progresses.

I think a team like that would in a lot of ways hinge on the rest of that bubble. if we see a lot of bid thieves like 2 years ago, they could be in deep trouble.

I would like to see Butler do well, but I don't think they'll make the dance this year. Assuming they beat Northwestern and finish 10-3 in OOC they would need to go a minimum of 11-9 in BE play and probably 12-8. I think UConn, St. John's, and Seton Hall all sweep them, which means they would need to go 11-3 or 12-2 in remaining BE play. Even though a lot of those remaining teams are having disappointing seasons, teams like Xavier, Providence, Georgetown, and obviously Nova are all potential land mines. Even DePaul is capable of shooting lights out one night and pulling off the upset. Although the Virginia win was a good one, I think the Boise St. game was one they really needed. We'll see what happens, but I think they're NIT bound this year.

(12-17-2025 09:59 AM)Traderwill Wrote:  I would like to see Butler do well, but I don't think they'll make the dance this year. Assuming they beat Northwestern and finish 10-3 in OOC they would need to go a minimum of 11-9 in BE play and probably 12-8. I think UConn, St. John's, and Seton Hall all sweep them, which means they would need to go 11-3 or 12-2 in remaining BE play. Even though a lot of those remaining teams are having disappointing seasons, teams like Xavier, Providence, Georgetown, and obviously Nova are all potential land mines. Even DePaul is capable of shooting lights out one night and pulling off the upset. Although the Virginia win was a good one, I think the Boise St. game was one they really needed. We'll see what happens, but I think they're NIT bound this year.

yeah if they got swept by those 3, they would have exactly 1 shot at a Q1 conference win- at Villanova. That is rough. Maybe Providence or Xavier, or Creighton can get into the top 75, but even there, it'd be on the road.....

(12-17-2025 10:04 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-17-2025 09:59 AM)Traderwill Wrote:  I would like to see Butler do well, but I don't think they'll make the dance this year. Assuming they beat Northwestern and finish 10-3 in OOC they would need to go a minimum of 11-9 in BE play and probably 12-8. I think UConn, St. John's, and Seton Hall all sweep them, which means they would need to go 11-3 or 12-2 in remaining BE play. Even though a lot of those remaining teams are having disappointing seasons, teams like Xavier, Providence, Georgetown, and obviously Nova are all potential land mines. Even DePaul is capable of shooting lights out one night and pulling off the upset. Although the Virginia win was a good one, I think the Boise St. game was one they really needed. We'll see what happens, but I think they're NIT bound this year.

yeah if they got swept by those 3, they would have exactly 1 shot at a Q1 conference win- at Villanova. That is rough. Maybe Providence or Xavier, or Creighton can get into the top 75, but even there, it'd be on the road.....

Didn't X finish like 21-10 or 20-11 last year with 1 Q1 win total? In this scenario Butler would have 2 (Virginia-N, @Villanova) as well as probably 5-6 Q2 wins. That was why I said I thought what I wrote mirrored what Xavier did last season. The profiles would look really similar.

I know I'm in the minority here but I don't think they get swept by Seton Hall, which does allow for an extra loss in league play such as @Xavier.

I agree whether or not they made it would hinge on how the bubble looked. But I think it's likely that in this scenario they would be first 4 out or last 4 in the vast majority of years. Would take a ton of bid thieves to push them down further.

With the caveat that there should be a lot of close games in the mix, which could go either way, I’ll point out the games with which I disagree:

Butler beats Villanova at home, so after the 5 game rough patch, I see them at 11-7, 2-5.

I do not see them winning road games either at PC or at Marquette although they should have a shot at Marquette. So, I see them going into the Villanova game at 17-11 (8-9). I expect Villanova to beat them at home. I would see them finishing their season at 19-12 (10-10).

I don’t pretend to know how any of these will turn out. After all, that’s why they play the games. Overall, they are looking like a middle of the pack team in the Big East, which frankly is an improvement over what I thought they were coming into the season, and which should mean a record of somewhere around .500 in conference. I think that Matta has done a great job with them so far, so giving credit where credi5 is due, I could see him getting them to exceed my expectations.

I predict Butler loses to Northwestern and goes 1-4 in these five BE games: @Creighton, Villanova, St Johns, @Xavier and @Seton Hall.

As to an at-large bid: The safe bet is on no bid.

The Northwestern game will tell us a lot because on paper, these 2 teams are evenly matched. If either team wins big, it could be a good omen for them.

I picked Butler simply because the game is being played in Indianapolis. But we actually have more to go on. In an unusual development for 2 teams in different conferences, they have 2 common opponents, with all 4 games having been played on neutral courts - Virginia & South Carolina. Butler won both of those games, each by 7 points, Northwestern split their 2 games, beating South Carolina by 2 and losing to UVA by 5.