bryanw1995
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RE: Where is the upside to SEC expansion?
(10-29-2025 05:48 PM)bullet Wrote: (10-29-2025 05:33 PM)JRsec Wrote: (10-29-2025 05:27 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote: (10-28-2025 09:42 PM)Lurker Above Wrote: (10-28-2025 09:36 AM)stechs02 Wrote: Do ESPN and the SEC even have a say if certain universities ultimately prefer the Big Ten? Conference realignment decisions still rest with university presidents and governing boards, not networks or conferences. The closer we get to 2030 without definitive movement, the more evident it becomes that institutional alignment and long-term academic and financial strategy will drive outcomes.
Some schools may simply view the Big Ten as a better fit than the SEC. That may sound like heresy on this board, which often treats SEC expansion as inevitable and universally desired, yet it remains a valid and realistic possibility grounded in governance dynamics and institutional preference.
I stepped away from this board because the SEC-centric narrative and accompanying groupthink have become increasingly difficult to engage with in a constructive way. This will again be my last post for some time.
I do not mean to be insulting or antagonist with what I am about to say because you obviously love the B1G, but I seriously doubt there is ANY school that would choose the B1G over the SEC at this point. Why? Because the SEC is killing it in the viewership numbers, and no other conference is close.
The SEC is putting out nailbiter thrillers each and every week with SEC conference game margin of victories comparable to NFL games. In contrast, the B1G is offering blowouts by their 3 powers, and most of the rest B1G conference have less than stellar ratings. With the SEC now having 12 traditional powers, plus every one of the other 12 schools being competitive in most of their conference games each week, including 3 of the non-traditional powers vying for playoff spots, the SEC is rolling Biggly.
There was a fear that the SEC having too many alpha dogs would ruin the pack, but now it appears it has just made the conference stronger and has produced an even better product. If this continues, the SEC is going to get paid like no conference has ever been paid before.
Furthermore, with the non-traditional power schools now holding their own against the traditional powers, the SEC now has 16 strong Bullies that are going to be even more marketable. Even our 4 schools with the most losses, Arkansas, Kentucky, Mississippi State and South Carolina usually BARELY lose, and often in dramatic fashion. In short, every SEC conference football game is becoming must see TV. To be honest, the B1G is starting to pale in comparison, and I think that is a vibe being felt across the country.
I don't think it's about Vibes so much as it's about, as our friend Frank the Tank would say, "think like a President". If I'm a University President, and I'm considering switching conferences for Athletic reasons, and I have a reasonable expectation that either of the P2 would be interested in adding my school, then I'm going to compare what each of the P2 could bring to my school:
1. What's my school's expected pay going to be from making this move? Which P2 will pay us more in the long run? Will the payouts be close, or will one or the other be likely to pay significantly more in the long run?
2. What's the geography like? How much worse will my travel be in one of the P2 vs the other?
3. Should I factor Academics into this? Would joining one or the other Conference offer my school a way to advance our Academic standing? Any Academic financial considerations?
For the ACC schools, #1 and 2 favor the SEC, while #3 might favor the B1G somewhat. However, AAU membership carries more clout than B1G membership, and most of the schools under consideration or AAU or could hope to be soon. If I'm FSU, do I think that a B1G move would further my AAU cause, or would I get vetoed by Michigan and Wisconsin, just like they helped get Nebraska kicked from the AAU right after they joined the B1G?
The problem for the B1G when looking at anybody in the M2 is that the SEC has a significant advantage with the long time ACC schools, and both the P2 have been giving Big 12 schools the cold shoulders for years. I don't blame Stechs for his thinking that other factors could matter more to some schools than others, but the schools that they might matter more to are schools that the SEC wouldn't want anyway. Schools like Cal or Stanford, for example. Great schools, but really far outside of SEC's region, awkward cultural fits, and unlikely to move the financial needle in the right direction for us.
Just 3 little words Bryan are all that will determine any of this: money, exposure, proximity. AAU schools as you noted all share grants with other AAU schools and sometimes with non-AAU schools which have extreme expertise in a single discipline.
The money will be comparable for TV rights. The total ledger and sports fit, especially due to diamond sports is with the SEC. Exposure is solidly in the SEC's favor. Proximity likely matters to all ACC schools save Virginia which is a wash between the two conferences' main body of schools.
The Florida to Virginia schools will depend on who is in power. Sometimes its the president. Sometimes its the board. And whoever is the decision maker will pick.
Anybody north of the Mason Dixon line or west of Oklahoma would choose the Big Ten if they had the option. Anybody in Texas or Oklahoma would choose the SEC. Nobody would turn either down if it was their only offer.
Virginia Tech would seem to be an SEC leaning school. But back in 2016 they had a real anti-SEC president. Same for FSU. Maybe a few you could predict with a lot of certainty regardless of the president. Given a choice, Duke would go with the Big Ten. Clemson and Louisville would go with the SEC (not that they would necessarily have a choice). So with FSU, Miami, GT, UNC, UVA, NCSU, VPI, it would depend.
Realistically, anyone other than FSU, Miami, UVA and UNC are extremely unlikely to have a choice.
Geography would trump everything for the ACC schools though, just as it does for the 4c in the Big 12, just as it did for OUT, and just as the Pac 12 thought it would. In the Pac 12's defense, geography only ceased to matter when there was a $30m+ gap between what they could make in the Pac 12 and what they could make in the B1G. It's impossible to see a large gap favoring the B1G post-2034; if anything, there is likely to be a sizeable gap favoring the SEC. I wonder how many subscriptions Netflix or Amazon could generate if all these rabid SEC fans needed to sign up and stay signed up to watch SEC State U every Saturday? Throw in the geographical proximity, and the only way it could make sense for any ACC schools to join the B1G would be for a bunch of them to join as a group. Not so for the SEC, we could add 1 here or 1 there and they'd fit perfectly into our footprint, or expand it a bit perhaps in UNC's case ofc. I'm skeptical that we'd make a "defensive" play to add certain schools just b/c if we're already smoking them on the field and on the tv now, that certainly wouldn't change if they started losing more games in the B1G and playing their games on CBS and NBC instead of ABC and ESPN.
It's not about chest thumping and saying that the SEC is the best. Certainly I think that it is, but it doesn't need to be for the ACC schools we'd want to prefer the SEC. Just as the B1G is the natural choice for the former Pac schools, all things being equal or close to equal. The only 2 that I think could legitimately evoke interest from both of us and could go either way are Miami and Colorado, though Colorado's fortunes seem to wax and wane with Deion's health.
(This post was last modified: 10-30-2025 11:46 AM by bryanw1995.)
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Where is the upside to SEC expansion?
