(08-04-2025 08:56 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  If Trump will not commit more support to Ukraine because of fear of WW3, then he sure as hell isn’t going to launch a 1st nuclear strike. This is TV drama for the US audience but it’s meaningless otherwise. If he wanted to appropriately respond and stand up to Putin, he would substantially increase US support in Ukraine. He’d reassert US leadership in NATO and ease their concerns that we’ve abandoned them.

No, this kabuki theatre reminds me of the sub battle scene from Hunt for Red October when Russian Captain Ramius is pretending to fight the USS Dallas to give the appearance of its destruction, while he’s actually turning the sub over to the US.

Slavicucks agree with you

(08-04-2025 08:56 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  If Trump will not commit more support to Ukraine because of fear of WW3, then he sure as hell isn’t going to launch a 1st nuclear strike. This is TV drama for the US audience but it’s meaningless otherwise. If he wanted to appropriately respond and stand up to Putin, he would substantially increase US support in Ukraine. He’d reassert US leadership in NATO and ease their concerns that we’ve abandoned them.

No, this kabuki theatre reminds me of the sub battle scene from Hunt for Red October when Russian Captain Ramius is giving the appearance of its the Red October’s destruction, while he’s actually turning the sub over to the US.

I'd say Miko33 is closer to the target than you are here. Trump called Putin's nuclear bluff (it was always a bluff by the way).

I would suggest there are ways to vastly increase the Ukrainian defense abilities over what Biden was doing without actually engaging in the kind of escalation that providing new more modern American weapons might cause. Simply providing MORE of what is currently working is the best way to go in my opinion. Trump should immediately call for tripling the US production of artillery shells and anti-aircraft missiles (we need to do that regardless). That would allow us to agree to sell Ukraine a million artillery shells a year while selling them additional air defense missiles and systems. That would make a HUGE difference on the battlefield for the Ukrainian defense. The tripling of production would also allow us to do these things while actually still adding to our stockpiles (and providing an employment boost by the way).

The other thing I would do if I were Trump is find out where the bottle necks are for the Ukrainian production of their own domestic long range Neptune cruise missile. I would then make sure that whatever components are slowing down the production could be manufactured at scale for them in the west. If the Ukrainians could get to domestically producing 100+ of those Neptunes a month---with most of them being utilized on Russian oil refineries and key defense industries----I suspect Putin would quickly become FAR more interested in peace talks (especially if the increased artillery availability was causing the front to be even more frozen despite continued meat wave attacks).

(08-04-2025 12:23 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-04-2025 08:56 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  If Trump will not commit more support to Ukraine because of fear of WW3, then he sure as hell isn’t going to launch a 1st nuclear strike. This is TV drama for the US audience but it’s meaningless otherwise. If he wanted to appropriately respond and stand up to Putin, he would substantially increase US support in Ukraine. He’d reassert US leadership in NATO and ease their concerns that we’ve abandoned them.

No, this kabuki theatre reminds me of the sub battle scene from Hunt for Red October when Russian Captain Ramius is giving the appearance of its the Red October’s destruction, while he’s actually turning the sub over to the US.

I'd say Miko33 is closer to the target than you are here. Trump called Putin's nuclear bluff (it was always a bluff by the way).

I would suggest there are ways to vastly increase the Ukrainian defense abilities over what Biden was doing without actually engaging in the kind of escalation that providing new more modern American weapons might cause. Simply providing MORE of what is currently working is the best way to go in my opinion. Trump should immediately call for tripling the US production of artillery shells and anti-aircraft missiles (we need to do that regardless). That would allow us to agree to sell Ukraine a million artillery shells a year while selling them additional air defense missiles and systems. That would make a HUGE difference on the battlefield for the Ukrainian defense. The tripling of production would also allow us to do these things while actually still adding to our stockpiles (and providing an employment boost by the way).

The other thing I would do if I were Trump is find out where the bottle necks are for the Ukrainian production of their own domestic long range Neptune cruise missile. I would then make sure that whatever components are slowing down the production could be manufactured at scale for them in the west. If the Ukrainians could get to domestically producing 100+ of those Neptunes a month---with most of them being utilized on Russian oil refineries and key defense industries----I suspect Putin would quickly become FAR more interested in peace talks (especially if the increased artillery availability was causing the front to be even more frozen despite continued meat wave attacks).

We need to at least triple the production. The issue goes back to the rare earth minerals that are needed. He needs to immediately start pushing our own mining companies to start mining and processing those minerals as we will definitely need it for our defense industries.

Well has it been enough days?

(08-03-2025 11:21 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-03-2025 09:56 PM)bullet Wrote:  This is something Trump could be losing patience with.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgro...ust-3-2025

"...Russian intelligence services appear to be reassessing and possibly innovating their sabotage operations in Europe. The Economist and Bloomberg, citing an upcoming report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), recently reported that instances of suspected Russian sabotage attacks and hybrid warfare incidents in Europe sharply escalated to 30 attacks in 2024; IISS also counted 11 suspected Russian-backed hybrid attacks in Europe between January and May 2025.[14] The Economist reported that IISS analysts assessed that the decreasing trend in the number of suspected sabotage attacks in 2025 could be due to the increased NATO presence in the Black Sea, Russia's attempts to posture itself as a good-faith negotiator during peace negotiation with the United States about the war in Ukraine, or concerns that the scale of Russian hybrid attacks in Europe may provoke NATO escalation.[15] US and European officials told Bloomberg that the decreasing trend could be due to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s desire to avoid antagonizing US President Donald Trump at the start of Trump's second term and early peace efforts in Ukraine, the reallocation of Russian General Staff's Main Directorate (GRU) resources to Ukraine, high-profile trials of saboteurs that are deterring future attacks, or the Moscow's attempts to tighten its control over and restrain the local proxies that Russia is using to conduct the attacks.[16] The official sources cautioned that the decreasing trend does not indicate that Russia has stopped its hybrid attacks or will not escalate them in the future, noting that Russian sabotage plots are more frequent in eastern European states than those in western Europe. IISS similarly warned that Russian intelligence services may be refining their tactics and reassessing the criminal networks in Europe with whom they partner, and that Russia may renew its hybrid campaign against Europe in the near future.[17]..."

I think Trump just realizes that Putin is fully playing him. Its very simple. Putin doesnt want a negotiated settlement while he still believes he has a chance to get everything he wants on the battlefield. His chances of getting what he wants on the battlefield rests almost entirely on Trump withholding weapons from the Ukrainians. Trump read the nice telephone conversations and talk of peace from Putin as "real" and didnt want to do anything that might undermine his position as a reasonable mediator for substantive peace talks. Putin understood that---and used that leverage to slow the pace of negotiations---suggesting on the Trump phone calls his great desire to get to a cease fire peace deal---while simultaneously directing his armed forces to redouble offensive operations and tempo in Ukraine because he knew the Ukrainians were starting to run short of ammunition (largely due to Trump halting the sale of American weapons to Urkraine).

It took a while, but Trump has figured out that Putin is not being genuine in his telephone conversation regarding a peace deal, which is likely why he decided that the 50 day time frame for Russia to get serious about peace was just playing into Putin's hand yet again. I think Trump is done with that dance. Ive always believed it will take both the carrot and the STICK to get Putin to negotiate a reasonable compromise peace deal---perhaps Trump is finally reaching the same conclusion. The very public move to let Putin know the US has nukes too and can park them on his doorstep (might even be there right now) suggests Trump has already begun to substantially change up the negotiating waltz.

Putin seems willing to spend 300 or 400,000 more men and 3 or 4 more years to get the last little bit of Luhansk that has been eluding him for 3 years and the 1/4 of Donetsk that still is out of his reach.

(08-04-2025 07:04 AM)miko33 Wrote:  This is how I expected it to go generally - not specifically that we'd be putting 2 nuclear subs off the Russian coast based on Medvedev's bluster but here we are. If you think about it, you just knew that Trump was going to jump in with both feet IF...Putin didn't take Trump seriously. Alternatively, Putin may have taken Trump seriously but feels he has no choice in continuing the war so he "stalled" as best as he could while hoping Russian forces could overwhelm Ukrainian forces and take Kiev.

Going off the assumption that Putin sees the war as his point of no return - which isn't surprising given the nature of preserving power in dictatorships - your conclusion should be that Trump would become a Ukraine war supporter in some capacity. I predict that Trump will end up putting more resources into Ukraine than Biden and with less restrictions. If you had red ass over Biden throwing support to Ukraine - be prepared for when Trump does the same plus extra. That's what I think will happen in the near future. It's what I always thought was going to happen with Trump despite all his initial support to end the war. I believe he wanted to but simply realized Putin wasn't interested. So...here we are...

I think at this point even Putin realizes he has no chance of taking Kiev unless the west just completely abandons Ukraine. I don't think he has enough men. He's spending thousands of men per kilometer.

(08-04-2025 12:23 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-04-2025 08:56 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  If Trump will not commit more support to Ukraine because of fear of WW3, then he sure as hell isn’t going to launch a 1st nuclear strike. This is TV drama for the US audience but it’s meaningless otherwise. If he wanted to appropriately respond and stand up to Putin, he would substantially increase US support in Ukraine. He’d reassert US leadership in NATO and ease their concerns that we’ve abandoned them.

No, this kabuki theatre reminds me of the sub battle scene from Hunt for Red October when Russian Captain Ramius is giving the appearance of its the Red October’s destruction, while he’s actually turning the sub over to the US.

I'd say Miko33 is closer to the target than you are here. Trump called Putin's nuclear bluff (it was always a bluff by the way).

I would suggest there are ways to vastly increase the Ukrainian defense abilities over what Biden was doing without actually engaging in the kind of escalation that providing new more modern American weapons might cause. Simply providing MORE of what is currently working is the best way to go in my opinion. Trump should immediately call for tripling the US production of artillery shells and anti-aircraft missiles (we need to do that regardless). That would allow us to agree to sell Ukraine a million artillery shells a year while selling them additional air defense missiles and systems. That would make a HUGE difference on the battlefield for the Ukrainian defense. The tripling of production would also allow us to do these things while actually still adding to our stockpiles (and providing an employment boost by the way).

The other thing I would do if I were Trump is find out where the bottle necks are for the Ukrainian production of their own domestic long range Neptune cruise missile. I would then make sure that whatever components are slowing down the production could be manufactured at scale for them in the west. If the Ukrainians could get to domestically producing 100+ of those Neptunes a month---with most of them being utilized on Russian oil refineries and key defense industries----I suspect Putin would quickly become FAR more interested in peace talks (especially if the increased artillery availability was causing the front to be even more frozen despite continued meat wave attacks).

One thing this war has brought out is how inadequate our defense manufacturing has become. We are running low on stocks sending only some things to Ukraine in a war in a relatively small theatre with armies of 300k-500k men fighting it out. There were battles with over a million men on each side in WWII.

Unfortunately for Putin, his Trump pedophilia kompromat is no longer a secret.

(08-04-2025 01:01 PM)Ohio Poly Wrote:  Unfortunately for Putin, his Trump pedophilia kompromat is no longer a secret.

Trump is not puppet of Vladimir Putin. Trump is not a pedophile, as per Epstein's lawyer at the time of Epstein's death.

TDS is a real sickness. You need help.

(08-04-2025 01:01 PM)Ohio Poly Wrote:  Unfortunately for Putin, his Trump pedophilia kompromat is no longer a secret.

Dont pass your genes.

(08-04-2025 12:41 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-03-2025 11:21 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-03-2025 09:56 PM)bullet Wrote:  This is something Trump could be losing patience with.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgro...ust-3-2025

"...Russian intelligence services appear to be reassessing and possibly innovating their sabotage operations in Europe. The Economist and Bloomberg, citing an upcoming report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), recently reported that instances of suspected Russian sabotage attacks and hybrid warfare incidents in Europe sharply escalated to 30 attacks in 2024; IISS also counted 11 suspected Russian-backed hybrid attacks in Europe between January and May 2025.[14] The Economist reported that IISS analysts assessed that the decreasing trend in the number of suspected sabotage attacks in 2025 could be due to the increased NATO presence in the Black Sea, Russia's attempts to posture itself as a good-faith negotiator during peace negotiation with the United States about the war in Ukraine, or concerns that the scale of Russian hybrid attacks in Europe may provoke NATO escalation.[15] US and European officials told Bloomberg that the decreasing trend could be due to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s desire to avoid antagonizing US President Donald Trump at the start of Trump's second term and early peace efforts in Ukraine, the reallocation of Russian General Staff's Main Directorate (GRU) resources to Ukraine, high-profile trials of saboteurs that are deterring future attacks, or the Moscow's attempts to tighten its control over and restrain the local proxies that Russia is using to conduct the attacks.[16] The official sources cautioned that the decreasing trend does not indicate that Russia has stopped its hybrid attacks or will not escalate them in the future, noting that Russian sabotage plots are more frequent in eastern European states than those in western Europe. IISS similarly warned that Russian intelligence services may be refining their tactics and reassessing the criminal networks in Europe with whom they partner, and that Russia may renew its hybrid campaign against Europe in the near future.[17]..."

I think Trump just realizes that Putin is fully playing him. Its very simple. Putin doesnt want a negotiated settlement while he still believes he has a chance to get everything he wants on the battlefield. His chances of getting what he wants on the battlefield rests almost entirely on Trump withholding weapons from the Ukrainians. Trump read the nice telephone conversations and talk of peace from Putin as "real" and didnt want to do anything that might undermine his position as a reasonable mediator for substantive peace talks. Putin understood that---and used that leverage to slow the pace of negotiations---suggesting on the Trump phone calls his great desire to get to a cease fire peace deal---while simultaneously directing his armed forces to redouble offensive operations and tempo in Ukraine because he knew the Ukrainians were starting to run short of ammunition (largely due to Trump halting the sale of American weapons to Urkraine).

It took a while, but Trump has figured out that Putin is not being genuine in his telephone conversation regarding a peace deal, which is likely why he decided that the 50 day time frame for Russia to get serious about peace was just playing into Putin's hand yet again. I think Trump is done with that dance. Ive always believed it will take both the carrot and the STICK to get Putin to negotiate a reasonable compromise peace deal---perhaps Trump is finally reaching the same conclusion. The very public move to let Putin know the US has nukes too and can park them on his doorstep (might even be there right now) suggests Trump has already begun to substantially change up the negotiating waltz.

Putin seems willing to spend 300 or 400,000 more men and 3 or 4 more years to get the last little bit of Luhansk that has been eluding him for 3 years and the 1/4 of Donetsk that still is out of his reach.

More accurately, he's willing to spend 300-400K men and 3 to 4 years as long as the damage Ukrainians are doing to his oil/defense infrastructure remains at its current levels and he can continue to see a steady---admittedly very slow---progress on the front. If either of those two variables changes---he likely would be forced to re-evaluate the attractiveness of a reasonable negotiated compromise settlement vs continuing a war where he is seeing a frozen front and increasing damage to his key industries.

(08-04-2025 12:34 PM)shere khan Wrote:  Well has it been enough days?

Well it’s been more than the ten days you and rasPutin predicted. And unfortunately more than a million and a half casualties.

(08-04-2025 02:50 PM)Was SoMs Eagle Wrote:  

(08-04-2025 12:34 PM)shere khan Wrote:  Well has it been enough days?

Well it’s been more than the ten days you and rasPutin predicted. And unfortunately more than a million and a half casualties.

Sure sure ...

Ten days.

(08-04-2025 12:41 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-03-2025 11:21 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-03-2025 09:56 PM)bullet Wrote:  This is something Trump could be losing patience with.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgro...ust-3-2025

"...Russian intelligence services appear to be reassessing and possibly innovating their sabotage operations in Europe. The Economist and Bloomberg, citing an upcoming report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), recently reported that instances of suspected Russian sabotage attacks and hybrid warfare incidents in Europe sharply escalated to 30 attacks in 2024; IISS also counted 11 suspected Russian-backed hybrid attacks in Europe between January and May 2025.[14] The Economist reported that IISS analysts assessed that the decreasing trend in the number of suspected sabotage attacks in 2025 could be due to the increased NATO presence in the Black Sea, Russia's attempts to posture itself as a good-faith negotiator during peace negotiation with the United States about the war in Ukraine, or concerns that the scale of Russian hybrid attacks in Europe may provoke NATO escalation.[15] US and European officials told Bloomberg that the decreasing trend could be due to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s desire to avoid antagonizing US President Donald Trump at the start of Trump's second term and early peace efforts in Ukraine, the reallocation of Russian General Staff's Main Directorate (GRU) resources to Ukraine, high-profile trials of saboteurs that are deterring future attacks, or the Moscow's attempts to tighten its control over and restrain the local proxies that Russia is using to conduct the attacks.[16] The official sources cautioned that the decreasing trend does not indicate that Russia has stopped its hybrid attacks or will not escalate them in the future, noting that Russian sabotage plots are more frequent in eastern European states than those in western Europe. IISS similarly warned that Russian intelligence services may be refining their tactics and reassessing the criminal networks in Europe with whom they partner, and that Russia may renew its hybrid campaign against Europe in the near future.[17]..."

I think Trump just realizes that Putin is fully playing him. Its very simple. Putin doesnt want a negotiated settlement while he still believes he has a chance to get everything he wants on the battlefield. His chances of getting what he wants on the battlefield rests almost entirely on Trump withholding weapons from the Ukrainians. Trump read the nice telephone conversations and talk of peace from Putin as "real" and didnt want to do anything that might undermine his position as a reasonable mediator for substantive peace talks. Putin understood that---and used that leverage to slow the pace of negotiations---suggesting on the Trump phone calls his great desire to get to a cease fire peace deal---while simultaneously directing his armed forces to redouble offensive operations and tempo in Ukraine because he knew the Ukrainians were starting to run short of ammunition (largely due to Trump halting the sale of American weapons to Urkraine).

It took a while, but Trump has figured out that Putin is not being genuine in his telephone conversation regarding a peace deal, which is likely why he decided that the 50 day time frame for Russia to get serious about peace was just playing into Putin's hand yet again. I think Trump is done with that dance. Ive always believed it will take both the carrot and the STICK to get Putin to negotiate a reasonable compromise peace deal---perhaps Trump is finally reaching the same conclusion. The very public move to let Putin know the US has nukes too and can park them on his doorstep (might even be there right now) suggests Trump has already begun to substantially change up the negotiating waltz.

Putin seems willing to spend 300 or 400,000 more men and 3 or 4 more years to get the last little bit of Luhansk that has been eluding him for 3 years and the 1/4 of Donetsk that still is out of his reach.

At the rate the meat grinder is operating now it won’t take nearly that long. Most estimates now are at about 1000 a DAY.

(08-04-2025 12:48 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-04-2025 12:23 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-04-2025 08:56 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  If Trump will not commit more support to Ukraine because of fear of WW3, then he sure as hell isn’t going to launch a 1st nuclear strike. This is TV drama for the US audience but it’s meaningless otherwise. If he wanted to appropriately respond and stand up to Putin, he would substantially increase US support in Ukraine. He’d reassert US leadership in NATO and ease their concerns that we’ve abandoned them.

No, this kabuki theatre reminds me of the sub battle scene from Hunt for Red October when Russian Captain Ramius is giving the appearance of its the Red October’s destruction, while he’s actually turning the sub over to the US.

I'd say Miko33 is closer to the target than you are here. Trump called Putin's nuclear bluff (it was always a bluff by the way).

I would suggest there are ways to vastly increase the Ukrainian defense abilities over what Biden was doing without actually engaging in the kind of escalation that providing new more modern American weapons might cause. Simply providing MORE of what is currently working is the best way to go in my opinion. Trump should immediately call for tripling the US production of artillery shells and anti-aircraft missiles (we need to do that regardless). That would allow us to agree to sell Ukraine a million artillery shells a year while selling them additional air defense missiles and systems. That would make a HUGE difference on the battlefield for the Ukrainian defense. The tripling of production would also allow us to do these things while actually still adding to our stockpiles (and providing an employment boost by the way).

The other thing I would do if I were Trump is find out where the bottle necks are for the Ukrainian production of their own domestic long range Neptune cruise missile. I would then make sure that whatever components are slowing down the production could be manufactured at scale for them in the west. If the Ukrainians could get to domestically producing 100+ of those Neptunes a month---with most of them being utilized on Russian oil refineries and key defense industries----I suspect Putin would quickly become FAR more interested in peace talks (especially if the increased artillery availability was causing the front to be even more frozen despite continued meat wave attacks).

One thing this war has brought out is how inadequate our defense manufacturing has become. We are running low on stocks sending only some things to Ukraine in a war in a relatively small theatre with armies of 300k-500k men fighting it out. There were battles with over a million men on each side in WWII.

Our spending now is wasteful. This conflict should teach us volumes on how to continue our military strategy.

(08-04-2025 02:54 PM)shere khan Wrote:  

(08-04-2025 02:50 PM)Was SoMs Eagle Wrote:  

(08-04-2025 12:34 PM)shere khan Wrote:  Well has it been enough days?

Well it’s been more than the ten days you and rasPutin predicted. And unfortunately more than a million and a half casualties.

Sure sure ...

Ten days.

You denying you predicted that the Russians would roll over the “Slavicucks”?

Of course you didn’t. You and TOFB are always right.

(08-04-2025 03:01 PM)Was SoMs Eagle Wrote:  

(08-04-2025 02:54 PM)shere khan Wrote:  

(08-04-2025 02:50 PM)Was SoMs Eagle Wrote:  

(08-04-2025 12:34 PM)shere khan Wrote:  Well has it been enough days?

Well it’s been more than the ten days you and rasPutin predicted. And unfortunately more than a million and a half casualties.

Sure sure ...

Ten days.

You denying you predicted that the Russians would roll over the “Slavicucks”?

Of course you didn’t. You and TOFB are always right.

When did they rollover? Glad they did. No more money from the US.

Glad its over. What were the terms of Russian surrender?

Yay. Slavicucks rejoice.

Ukraine has stolen EVERYTHING about the Russian nuclear sub fleet. Full schematics, crews, weaknesses, operational plans and war plans. The Russians have been neutered. This is huge for the west and a disaster for rasPutin. Possibly the biggest spy op in the history of the most post WWII era. Someone and their buddies are about to fall out of an open window. Hopefully rasPutin follows them all the way to the pavement.

Days.

(08-04-2025 08:56 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  this kabuki theatre reminds me of the sub battle scene from Hunt for Red October when Russian Captain Ramius is giving the appearance of its the Red October’s destruction, while he’s actually turning the sub over to the US.

Good flick but wtf does it have to do with the current situation?

The movie was filmed in 1989 when nobody in the American film industry had any idea who Putin was. Yet one of the minor characters was named “Putin” — the obnoxious Soviet political officer who walked into the Captain’s quarters without permission, and that Connery strangles at the beginning of the film.