(04-05-2023 08:32 AM)JMU2004 Wrote: (04-04-2023 11:12 AM)Longhorn Wrote: (04-04-2023 07:38 AM)JMU2004 Wrote: Didn't know where to post this, but I saw JMU received just under 37k applications this year good for a roughly 17% increase from prior year. Class size is still 4,750.
Admit rate should also drop from the 75% of 2022, I would imagine.
Not necessarily.
The admission rate (% of applicants offered admission) will not drop if all 37k met currently established admission standards. If all 37k met established admission criteria they would all be offered admission.
The % of all applicants offered admission will “drop” (in a significant manner) only if the established admission standards are raised, or if the applicant pool (the 37k) somehow showed a precipitous decline in the number of qualified applicants, or the number of “early action” students accepting their offer of admission increased.
At present, JMU’s projected budgetary needs to fill those 4750 seats is balanced against raising or lowering admission standards. The “balancing act” is a delicate one.
The hope is that a larger pool of qualified applicants would result in a lower admission rate (as you suggest), however, the process is a bit more complicated and fluidly dynamic than that.
What? There is no way JMU would offer admission to all 37k if they met the standards. How could you possibly manage enrollment in that scenario?
I'm not going to get into a battle over this, but if you grow your applicant pool while maintaining the same target class size, then either the admit rate OR the yield has to drop, otherwise you are going to end up with a freshman class that you can not accommodate. Indeed, if the JMU admits 75% (2022 rate) of 37k and the yield is still ~ 20% (2022 rate) , then the freshman class will be nearly 5,550. Is JMU able to accommodate another 800 freshmen?
It is a delicate dance often managed through the wait list, but the admit rate will almost always go down as the applicant pool grows. The only caveat is for a school targeting enrollment growth.
You’re being too logical, and taking my written comment about offering admission to 37,000 students too literally.
The yield rate…the percentage of students who accept an offer of admission and who subsequently enroll is generally (but not always) lower than the size of the class JMU is trying to fill. Hence all qualified students could (in theory) be offered admission, because JMU knows they won’t all show up.
My comment that if all JMU applicants (the discussed 37k number) met entrance requirements is simply a THEORETICAL “what if.” Qualified students will be offered admission to JMU. End of story.
Obviously, however, not all applicants are going to measure up to JMU’s admission criteria, so the point is moot. Yet, and here’s where it gets interesting…JMU is still going to offer admission to far more qualified students than can be expected to enroll, and this number of “potential admits” is exclusive of the “wait listed” students.
The “overbooking” of admits (if you’d like to think of it that way) is like an airline selling more tickets than actual seats on the plane. Things only go sideways when more passengers (or students in this case) actually show up at the gate.
Obviously, overbooked airlines can’t fit more passengers than a plane can hold, and so they offer deals to some passengers to get “bumped.” But a university can’t rescind offers of admission. This problem has only happened once in my time at JMU.
Back some 25+ years ago (circa 1996-97) the number of students offered admission to JMU (and who accepted) spiked…exceeding the anticipated yield rate. This issue has been discussed before…the extra 300+ students who showed up had JMU scrambling to find rooms to house the “extra” freshmen.
JMU purchased the old Howard Johnson motel, got Bill Neff to build and lease the craptastic “Blue Ridge Hall” to JMU (on land now occupied by the AUBC), and housed some students 3 to a dorm room. And that phenomenon all happened because the expected yield rate jumped by only about 1% (a historic and expected 39% to around 40.5% yield rate).
A larger applicant pool will have some impact on the percentage of students offered admission, but it’s not necessarily a direct correlation. There’s more at play than simply trying to increase the enrollment of the university.
I’ve already pointed out a couple of the reasons, but another reason supporting raising the % of admits is the fact that the number of potential applicants is trending downwards. Even though the number of applications is growing (a good thing) there’s no guarantee that the applicant pool will yield the number of new students JMU wants to enroll.
Just three years ago JMU had to hustle to meet its enrollment target. ODU and Radford missed their targets, and as a result there were significant impacts on their budgets. In an earlier post (at least 2 years ago) I shared part of the blame for this situation was due to an aggressive admission move by VT.
Bottom line, JMU is extraordinarily well managed, and the people making enrollment decisions are pros.