Pretty sure this is the same as if Blackwater(or whatever they are now) declared war on US forces in Iraq in the early 20s. As inept as Russia's military seems in this conflict, they still outnumber Wagner's forces many times over. They are not going to achieve a coup.

I will patiently wait for our resident internet research agency employee to weigh in on the topic. Which will be interesting because Russia's troll farm was founded by Prigozhin

(06-23-2023 07:06 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  We will see. Im not really buying much of what Im reading right now on Twitter regarding this situation----the stuff there reads like the plot of some half written Tom Clancy manuscript that was found in a a forgotten safe somewhere. That said----the flood of spy novel stuff is pretty interesting and at least seems to indicate there are a lot of divisions just under the surface in Mother Russia. Sure seems like a nation that has no business invading anyone.

Yeah it's going to be interesting. I understand that Prigozhin has 25,000 troops under his command and that 90% of Russian ground forces are in Ukraine right now. Prigozhin is definitely crossed the Rubicon and the Russian military now has to make some tough choices about deployment. Very interesting.

The interesting thing to me is Prigozhin is essentially saying that the Ukrainians didnt start the war and the Ukrainians never bombed Donbas civilians on purpose----rather members of the Russian military elite made up that narrative to press Putin to invade. Makes me wonder if Putin is using Prigozhin to lay the ground work for Putin to be able to negotiate his way out of this mess by making his failing generals the fall guys for the whole Ukrainian folly going all the way back to 2014. That would be a great outcome. On the other hand, one of the more scary scenarios is the Wagner leader is getting himself and his troops the heck out of Ukraine because he doesnt want to be there when the Russians blow the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. While thats an interesting theory---it doesnt really explain why all these theatrics would be needed just to move his troops away from the danger zone. He could have just quietly packed them up and indicated he was giving them a break in Russia. Most would have agreed they had earned a break and would not have likely thought twice about it. So---that theory seems unlikely to me.

(06-23-2023 07:44 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  The interesting thing to me is Prigozhin is essentially saying that the Ukrainians didnt start the war and the Ukrainians never bombed Donbas civilians on purpose----rather members of the Russian military elite made up that narrative to press Putin to invade. Makes me wonder if Putin is using Prigozhin to lay the ground work for Putin to be able to negotiate his way out of this mess by making his failing generals the fall guys for the whole Ukrainian folly going all the way back to 2014.

As it stands right now I'm going to apply Occam's razor. It is what it looks like. Prigozhin is all in. He's tossed the dice Castro style and hopes that his army grows and gains more fame has he marches it across Russia. Those are some wild odds and at the end of it all I think Prigozhin likely hangs upside down in some Town square for it. Like most rebels. But not all of them.

There are reports some Russian Troops are refusing to fire on Prigozhin’s mercenary forces. Many are allowing the PMC to pass through checkpoints unchallenged. The Russian Army is tiring of fighting in Ukraine and they may turn on Putin as well.

(06-23-2023 07:52 PM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  

(06-23-2023 07:44 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  The interesting thing to me is Prigozhin is essentially saying that the Ukrainians didnt start the war and the Ukrainians never bombed Donbas civilians on purpose----rather members of the Russian military elite made up that narrative to press Putin to invade. Makes me wonder if Putin is using Prigozhin to lay the ground work for Putin to be able to negotiate his way out of this mess by making his failing generals the fall guys for the whole Ukrainian folly going all the way back to 2014.

As it stands right now I'm going to apply Occam's razor. It is what it looks like. Prigozhin is all in. He's tossed the dice Castro style and hopes that his army grows and gains more fame has he marches it across Russia. Those are some wild odds and at the end of it all I think Prigozhin likely hangs upside down in some Town square for it. Like most rebels. But not all of them.

Yeah---if its just a straight up coup attempt----he's looking at some really long odds. He needs to hope the war is horribly unpopular in Russia and that the rank and file soldiers are ready for it to be over (that said----I suppose its not all that far fetched to think the rank and file Russian mobik may actually feel that way).

(06-23-2023 08:02 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(06-23-2023 07:52 PM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  

(06-23-2023 07:44 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  The interesting thing to me is Prigozhin is essentially saying that the Ukrainians didnt start the war and the Ukrainians never bombed Donbas civilians on purpose----rather members of the Russian military elite made up that narrative to press Putin to invade. Makes me wonder if Putin is using Prigozhin to lay the ground work for Putin to be able to negotiate his way out of this mess by making his failing generals the fall guys for the whole Ukrainian folly going all the way back to 2014.

As it stands right now I'm going to apply Occam's razor. It is what it looks like. Prigozhin is all in. He's tossed the dice Castro style and hopes that his army grows and gains more fame has he marches it across Russia. Those are some wild odds and at the end of it all I think Prigozhin likely hangs upside down in some Town square for it. Like most rebels. But not all of them.

Yeah---if its just a straight up coup attempt----he's looking at some really long odds. He needs to hope the war is horribly unpopular in Russia and that the rank and file soldiers are ready for it to be over (that said----I suppose its not all that far fetched to think the rank and file Russian mobik may actually feel that way).

If the Russian Army’s response to the PMC moving northward is any indication, they may join Prigozhin in the coup.

Big question is, Who will the US support?

(06-23-2023 08:02 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(06-23-2023 07:52 PM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  

(06-23-2023 07:44 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  The interesting thing to me is Prigozhin is essentially saying that the Ukrainians didnt start the war and the Ukrainians never bombed Donbas civilians on purpose----rather members of the Russian military elite made up that narrative to press Putin to invade. Makes me wonder if Putin is using Prigozhin to lay the ground work for Putin to be able to negotiate his way out of this mess by making his failing generals the fall guys for the whole Ukrainian folly going all the way back to 2014.

As it stands right now I'm going to apply Occam's razor. It is what it looks like. Prigozhin is all in. He's tossed the dice Castro style and hopes that his army grows and gains more fame has he marches it across Russia. Those are some wild odds and at the end of it all I think Prigozhin likely hangs upside down in some Town square for it. Like most rebels. But not all of them.

Yeah---if its just a straight up coup attempt----he's looking at some really long odds. He needs to hope the war is horribly unpopular in Russia and that the rank and file soldiers are ready for it to be over (that said----I suppose its not all that far fetched to think the rank and file Russian mobik may actually feel that way).

All signs are pointing to sabatoge at the power plant. It's the only thing that makes sense in all this. The dam was the first escalation, the bipartisan statement today can't be coincidence, nuclear disaster thwarts the counteroffensive, and whether Prigozhin is friend or foe to Putin doesn't really matter, he's getting out of dodge either way and preparing for the fallout.

(06-23-2023 08:07 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  Big question is, Who will the US support?

Whoever controls the most nuclear warheads

Biden has to be the luckiest man. Whenever something around his corrupt family gets hot in the news then something pops up to distract

(06-23-2023 08:01 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  There are reports some Russian Troops are refusing to fire on Prigozhin’s mercenary forces. Many are allowing the PMC to pass through checkpoints unchallenged. The Russian Army is tiring of fighting in Ukraine and they may turn on Putin as well.

This is some crazy s***. Now I almost want to say that Putin has to be in on this and this is a way to blame his generals, save his own ass and stay in power, while at the same time getting out of Ukraine. I said almost.... I think the over-under on Prigozhin's life if he doesn't have Putin's support is 72 hours. If this is really a coup the guy has balls the size of cantaloupes.

(06-23-2023 08:16 PM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  

(06-23-2023 08:01 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  There are reports some Russian Troops are refusing to fire on Prigozhin’s mercenary forces. Many are allowing the PMC to pass through checkpoints unchallenged. The Russian Army is tiring of fighting in Ukraine and they may turn on Putin as well.

This is some crazy s***. Now I almost want to say that Putin has to be in on this and this is a way to blame his generals, save his own ass and stay in power, while at the same time getting out of Ukraine. I said almost.... I think the over-under on Prigozhin's life if he doesn't have Putin's support is 72 hours. If this is really a coup the guy has balls the size of cantaloupes.

The 2000's have been wild man

(06-23-2023 08:11 PM)bobdizole Wrote:  

(06-23-2023 08:07 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  Big question is, Who will the US support?

Whoever controls the most nuclear warheads

So, Putin?

(06-23-2023 07:06 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  We will see. Im not really buying much of what Im reading right now on Twitter regarding this situation----the stuff there reads like the plot of some half written Tom Clancy manuscript that was found in a a forgotten safe somewhere. That said----the flood of spy novel stuff is pretty interesting and at least seems to indicate there are a lot of divisions just under the surface in Mother Russia. Sure seems like a nation that has no business invading anyone.

Well, we should all be mindful that when a monolithic nuclear power splinters into pieces that it's a heads-up moment for the rest of the world. And right now is the worst possible time to have a power-hungry dictator in China and an imbecile in the White House. Let's hope luck is on our side, because with the current policies of this country God sure isn't!

(06-23-2023 08:26 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(06-23-2023 08:11 PM)bobdizole Wrote:  

(06-23-2023 08:07 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  Big question is, Who will the US support?

Whoever controls the most nuclear warheads

So, Putin?

If he is as crazy as the US claims he is, do you not think he would have his loyalist use tactical nukes to stop an attack of Moscow?

Wagner group have accused of the Russia generals a few months back that they have not send any weapons to them to fight Ukraine soldiers.

Starting to see multiple reports of Russian military units firing on other Russian military units inside of Ukraine. These are not Wagner units vs Russian military---but cases where regular Russian military units are firing on other regular Russian military units. Also, there is a large Russian airbase outside of Moscow with a motor rifle unit assigned to it that has apparently refused to move into position to defend Moscow. Video has emerged indicating that base is now currently on fire. Unknown if its been fired upon by portions of the Russian military or if the fires there are simply the result of sabotage from its own garrison.

I was initially skeptical about the reports of civil war----but its becoming clear things are rapidly unraveling within Russia's military command structure and sides are being chosen. I have always suspected the Ukraine war is not nearly as popular with the Russian people and its men in uniform as Tudors silly propaganda sources would have us believe. In fact---according to Wagners head man---the entire basis for the war was made up fiction---and I cant imagine that revelation is going to go over well for the families and friends of the Russian soldiers who have fallen in this completely unnecessary war.

(06-24-2023 01:21 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Starting to see multiple reports of Russian military units firing on other Russian military units. These are not Wagner vs Russian military---but regular Russian military firing on regular Russian military. Also, there is a large Russian airbase outside of Moscow with a motor rifle unit assigned to it that has refused to move into position to defend Moscow. Video has emerged indicating that base is currently on fire. Unknown if its been fired on or if its the result of sabotage from its own garrison.

I was initially skeptical----but its clear things are rapidly unraveling within the Russia's military structure and sides are being chosen.

This is precisely why I stated it is a nightmare scenario for the world. You have an entrenched slightly paranoid and absolutely resolute Putin, and the nukes are there and it would not take much for it to get out of hand. I'm not saying he would launch on the U.S. but nukes used anywhere near free Europe and our military bases there could trigger escalation in a hurry.

The best approach right now to alert all of bases, lock them down and stay the hell away from anything happening in the former Soviet states. And President Bumble needs to be kept under wraps and let more agile minds manage our conduct. An eye on Xi is in order as well. It has to be somewhat unpredictable how China will respond.

(06-24-2023 01:27 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-24-2023 01:21 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Starting to see multiple reports of Russian military units firing on other Russian military units. These are not Wagner vs Russian military---but regular Russian military firing on regular Russian military. Also, there is a large Russian airbase outside of Moscow with a motor rifle unit assigned to it that has refused to move into position to defend Moscow. Video has emerged indicating that base is currently on fire. Unknown if its been fired on or if its the result of sabotage from its own garrison.

I was initially skeptical----but its clear things are rapidly unraveling within the Russia's military structure and sides are being chosen.

This is precisely why I stated it is a nightmare scenario for the world. You have an entrenched slightly paranoid and absolutely resolute Putin, and the nukes are there and it would not take much for it to get out of hand. I'm not saying he would launch on the U.S. but nukes used anywhere near free Europe and our military bases there could trigger escalation in a hurry.

The best approach right now to alert all of bases, lock them down and stay the hell away from anything happening in the former Soviet states. And President Bumble needs to be kept under wraps and let more agile minds manage our conduct. An eye on Xi is in order as well. It has to be somewhat unpredictable how China will respond.

Its times like these that its incredibly unsettling to have a cognitively compromised president.

No idea how this will play out, but I wouldnt be surprised if it ends up with Putin still in power---Prigozhin serving as his Defense Minister----with the current Russian military leaders sent off to prison as scapegoats for "misleading" Putin and getting Russia into this messy Ukrainian quagmire. That would be a fairly decent outcome from which a relatively quick negotiated peace agreement for Ukraine might be hammered out. That said---you're absolutely correct in pointing out we could easily end up in any number of possible nightmare scenarios. We are dealing with a possible civil war in a nation that owns the largest nuclear arsenal in the world. There were serious concerns something like this might happen in Pakistan a while back---this current situation is 1000 times worse.