(12-04-2022 03:23 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-04-2022 01:48 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  I see that Kansas St is a 5.5 point underdog vs Alabama.

So much for the posts on here that TCU would be a 14+ point underdog vs Alabama.

As others have noted, I think that Alabama is likely to see a lot of top players opt out of the bowl game.

Whereas if it was a playoff game, they would play. So I suspect that Vegas is expecting a weakened Alabama team to show up in the Sugar Bowl, not the full-force team that would have played in the playoffs.

Kansas State, not having that kind of talent, will imo likely arrive at full strength

Had it been the playoffs, I think the line would be double that 5.5, at least.

no way, line would be 4x that at a minimum, bama's JV would destroy KState bc, you know...bama.

(12-04-2022 05:13 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(12-04-2022 03:23 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-04-2022 01:48 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  I see that Kansas St is a 5.5 point underdog vs Alabama.

So much for the posts on here that TCU would be a 14+ point underdog vs Alabama.

As others have noted, I think that Alabama is likely to see a lot of top players opt out of the bowl game.

Whereas if it was a playoff game, they would play. So I suspect that Vegas is expecting a weakened Alabama team to show up in the Sugar Bowl, not the full-force team that would have played in the playoffs.

Kansas State, not having that kind of talent, will imo likely arrive at full strength

Had it been the playoffs, I think the line would be double that 5.5, at least.

no way, line would be 4x that at a minimum, bama's JV would destroy KState bc, you know...bama.

Yes, but remember Utah's 13-0 season. The other team "just didn't want to be there."

Alabama is going to see 15 starting players opt out of playing the Sugar Bowl to get ready for the NFL draft.

... and they still will have better talent than K State at every position.

Bama is undefeated in bowls becuase when they do lose it doesn’t count on the grounds that they just weren’t trying

I swear I haven't checked the Vegas lines yet... but here's my gander before I verify.

UM -6.5 vs TCU
UGa -9.0 vs OSU

If it were UGa vs UM right now, I'd say UGa -4.0, so I'd give UGa an over -10 spread had they drawn TCU in the SFs.

PS: So UM is -7.5 and UGa is -6.5, but I still think UGa vs TCU would have been -8 or -9 given that UM is a heavier favorite than I thought over TCU.

(12-06-2022 08:11 AM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  Bama is undefeated in bowls becuase when they do lose it doesn’t count on the grounds that they just weren’t trying

FWIW, Saban doesn't lose a lot of bowls. With Alabama he's 15-6, and the great bulk of those games were NY6 bowls. But let's look at some of the losses:

They certainly tried in last year's national title game vs Georgia, and got beat.

They certainly tried in the 2018 national title game, and Clemson routed them.

They tried in the 2014 playoffs and were beaten by Ohio State.

But against Utah in 2008? With nothing on the line (by their standards) and the big disappointment of losing the SEC title game to Florida?

In the 2014 Sugar Bowl vs Oklahoma, again coming off the crushing loss to Auburn in the "kick six" game with nothing to play for?

Those shouldn't count, IMO.

But I would say half the time that Saban's Alabama team lost a bowl game, the team was fully-stocked and did its best.

This year's Sugar Bowl with K-State? Nothing to play for and probably a ton of guys will opt out, so not one to count, IMO.

(12-06-2022 08:59 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-06-2022 08:11 AM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  Bama is undefeated in bowls becuase when they do lose it doesn’t count on the grounds that they just weren’t trying

FWIW, Saban doesn't lose a lot of bowls. With Alabama he's 15-6, and the great bulk of those games were NY6 bowls. But let's look at some of the losses:

They certainly tried in last year's national title game vs Georgia, and got beat.

They certainly tried in the 2018 national title game, and Clemson routed them.

They tried in the 2014 playoffs and were beaten by Ohio State.

But against Utah in 2008? With nothing on the line (by their standards) and the big disappointment of losing the SEC title game to Florida?

In the 2014 Sugar Bowl vs Oklahoma, again coming off the crushing loss to Auburn in the "kick six" game with nothing to play for?

Those shouldn't count, IMO.

But I would say half the time that Saban's Alabama team lost a bowl game, the team was fully-stocked and did its best.

This year's Sugar Bowl with K-State? Nothing to play for and probably a ton of guys will opt out, so not one to count, IMO.

If you're playing, you're playing to win. And if they're keeping it score it counts. Trying to excuse away losses is an incredibly soft thing to do.

(12-06-2022 09:05 AM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(12-06-2022 08:59 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-06-2022 08:11 AM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  Bama is undefeated in bowls becuase when they do lose it doesn’t count on the grounds that they just weren’t trying

FWIW, Saban doesn't lose a lot of bowls. With Alabama he's 15-6, and the great bulk of those games were NY6 bowls. But let's look at some of the losses:

They certainly tried in last year's national title game vs Georgia, and got beat.

They certainly tried in the 2018 national title game, and Clemson routed them.

They tried in the 2014 playoffs and were beaten by Ohio State.

But against Utah in 2008? With nothing on the line (by their standards) and the big disappointment of losing the SEC title game to Florida?

In the 2014 Sugar Bowl vs Oklahoma, again coming off the crushing loss to Auburn in the "kick six" game with nothing to play for?

Those shouldn't count, IMO.

But I would say half the time that Saban's Alabama team lost a bowl game, the team was fully-stocked and did its best.

This year's Sugar Bowl with K-State? Nothing to play for and probably a ton of guys will opt out, so not one to count, IMO.

If you're playing, you're playing to win. And if they're keeping it score it counts. Trying to excuse away losses is an incredibly soft thing to do.

Eh, I think context matters.

(12-06-2022 08:59 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-06-2022 08:11 AM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  Bama is undefeated in bowls becuase when they do lose it doesn’t count on the grounds that they just weren’t trying

FWIW, Saban doesn't lose a lot of bowls. With Alabama he's 15-6, and the great bulk of those games were NY6 bowls. But let's look at some of the losses:

They certainly tried in last year's national title game vs Georgia, and got beat.

They certainly tried in the 2018 national title game, and Clemson routed them.

They tried in the 2014 playoffs and were beaten by Ohio State.

But against Utah in 2008? With nothing on the line (by their standards) and the big disappointment of losing the SEC title game to Florida?

In the 2014 Sugar Bowl vs Oklahoma, again coming off the crushing loss to Auburn in the "kick six" game with nothing to play for?

Those shouldn't count, IMO.

But I would say half the time that Saban's Alabama team lost a bowl game, the team was fully-stocked and did its best.

This year's Sugar Bowl with K-State? Nothing to play for and probably a ton of guys will opt out, so not one to count, IMO.

I see you have the excuses pre-loaded

(12-06-2022 08:59 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-06-2022 08:11 AM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  Bama is undefeated in bowls becuase when they do lose it doesn’t count on the grounds that they just weren’t trying

FWIW, Saban doesn't lose a lot of bowls. With Alabama he's 15-6, and the great bulk of those games were NY6 bowls. But let's look at some of the losses:

They certainly tried in last year's national title game vs Georgia, and got beat.

They certainly tried in the 2018 national title game, and Clemson routed them.

They tried in the 2014 playoffs and were beaten by Ohio State.

But against Utah in 2008? With nothing on the line (by their standards) and the big disappointment of losing the SEC title game to Florida?

In the 2014 Sugar Bowl vs Oklahoma, again coming off the crushing loss to Auburn in the "kick six" game with nothing to play for?

Those shouldn't count, IMO.

But I would say half the time that Saban's Alabama team lost a bowl game, the team was fully-stocked and did its best.

This year's Sugar Bowl with K-State? Nothing to play for and probably a ton of guys will opt out, so not one to count, IMO.

Well maybe you should knock off 5 or 6 of their wins because the other team wasn't motivated. You make it sound like Saban is a really lousy coach that can't get his team interested in a game.

(12-06-2022 12:49 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Alabama is going to see 15 starting players opt out of playing the Sugar Bowl to get ready for the NFL draft.

... and they still will have better talent than K State at every position.

They had all those players and had better talent at nearly every position than 12 of their opponents. They are 10-2.

(12-06-2022 12:51 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-06-2022 12:49 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Alabama is going to see 15 starting players opt out of playing the Sugar Bowl to get ready for the NFL draft.

... and they still will have better talent than K State at every position.

They had all those players and had better talent at nearly every position than 12 of their opponents. They are 10-2.

Alabama is loaded with talent. They have 2 losses because the Defensive Coordinator is not up to standards. Alabama's defense this year was totally atypical for most defenses under Saban. The offense was fine. Auburn rushed for 343 yards or something like that on them, and in their two losses they couldn't stop tempo passing attacks. This Alabama defense stunk! And it was mostly due to scheme and not talent. IMO, this is the beginning and end of the story on the Tide this year. And no, they weren't CFP quality. In my opinion neither was Ohio State. TCU deserves a #3 seed. But this year a simple game between Georgia and Michigan would have been sufficient.

(12-06-2022 08:21 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  I swear I haven't checked the Vegas lines yet... but here's my gander before I verify.

UM -6.5 vs TCU
UGa -9.0 vs OSU

If it were UGa vs UM right now, I'd say UGa -4.0, so I'd give UGa an over -10 spread had they drawn TCU in the SFs.

PS: So UM is -7.5 and UGa is -6.5, but I still think UGa vs TCU would have been -8 or -9 given that UM is a heavier favorite than I thought over TCU.

Michigan opened as a 9.5-point favorite and that has not moved much. If the Michigan team that beat Penn State by 24 and Ohio State by 22 shows up, they should easily cover that number. I think Michigan wins this game on the line of scrimmage. They have the #3 rushing defense in the nation and the #6 rushing offense in the nation. TCU has the #66 rushing defense in the nation and the #25 ranked rushing offense.

(12-06-2022 01:01 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-06-2022 12:51 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-06-2022 12:49 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Alabama is going to see 15 starting players opt out of playing the Sugar Bowl to get ready for the NFL draft.

... and they still will have better talent than K State at every position.

They had all those players and had better talent at nearly every position than 12 of their opponents. They are 10-2.

Alabama is loaded with talent. They have 2 losses because the Defensive Coordinator is not up to standards. Alabama's defense this year was totally atypical for most defenses under Saban. The offense was fine. Auburn rushed for 343 yards or something like that on them, and in their two losses they couldn't stop tempo passing attacks. This Alabama defense stunk! And it was mostly due to scheme and not talent. IMO, this is the beginning and end of the story on the Tide this year. And no, they weren't CFP quality. In my opinion neither was Ohio State. TCU deserves a #3 seed. But this year a simple game between Georgia and Michigan would have been sufficient.

And one of those Bama losses (to Tennessee) can be attributed, in part, to an excessive number of penalties.

(12-06-2022 01:11 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(12-06-2022 01:01 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-06-2022 12:51 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-06-2022 12:49 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Alabama is going to see 15 starting players opt out of playing the Sugar Bowl to get ready for the NFL draft.

... and they still will have better talent than K State at every position.

They had all those players and had better talent at nearly every position than 12 of their opponents. They are 10-2.

Alabama is loaded with talent. They have 2 losses because the Defensive Coordinator is not up to standards. Alabama's defense this year was totally atypical for most defenses under Saban. The offense was fine. Auburn rushed for 343 yards or something like that on them, and in their two losses they couldn't stop tempo passing attacks. This Alabama defense stunk! And it was mostly due to scheme and not talent. IMO, this is the beginning and end of the story on the Tide this year. And no, they weren't CFP quality. In my opinion neither was Ohio State. TCU deserves a #3 seed. But this year a simple game between Georgia and Michigan would have been sufficient.

And one of those Bama losses (to Tennessee) can be attributed, in part, to an excessive number of penalties.

In part Bill, as with LSU, but since when do Alabama defenses give up 42 points on average in 2 losses (32 & 52 points). Your typical Saban defense only yields opponents an average score in the mid to low 20's.

(12-06-2022 01:11 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(12-06-2022 08:21 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  I swear I haven't checked the Vegas lines yet... but here's my gander before I verify.

UM -6.5 vs TCU
UGa -9.0 vs OSU

If it were UGa vs UM right now, I'd say UGa -4.0, so I'd give UGa an over -10 spread had they drawn TCU in the SFs.

PS: So UM is -7.5 and UGa is -6.5, but I still think UGa vs TCU would have been -8 or -9 given that UM is a heavier favorite than I thought over TCU.

Michigan opened as a 9.5-point favorite and that has not moved much. If the Michigan team that beat Penn State by 24 and Ohio State by 22 shows up, they should easily cover that number. I think Michigan wins this game on the line of scrimmage. They have the #3 rushing defense in the nation and the #6 rushing offense in the nation. TCU has the #66 rushing defense in the nation and the #25 ranked rushing offense.

Agree 100%. Second halves against this Wolverine squad end miserably for their opponents. It's almost like they play a bit of scoreboard rope-a-dope in the first half, even against clearly out-gunned teams.

(12-06-2022 01:11 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(12-06-2022 01:01 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-06-2022 12:51 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-06-2022 12:49 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Alabama is going to see 15 starting players opt out of playing the Sugar Bowl to get ready for the NFL draft.

... and they still will have better talent than K State at every position.

They had all those players and had better talent at nearly every position than 12 of their opponents. They are 10-2.

Alabama is loaded with talent. They have 2 losses because the Defensive Coordinator is not up to standards. Alabama's defense this year was totally atypical for most defenses under Saban. The offense was fine. Auburn rushed for 343 yards or something like that on them, and in their two losses they couldn't stop tempo passing attacks. This Alabama defense stunk! And it was mostly due to scheme and not talent. IMO, this is the beginning and end of the story on the Tide this year. And no, they weren't CFP quality. In my opinion neither was Ohio State. TCU deserves a #3 seed. But this year a simple game between Georgia and Michigan would have been sufficient.

And one of those Bama losses (to Tennessee) can be attributed, in part, to an excessive number of penalties.

That was a consistent pattern all year long. They aren't a disciplined team.

(12-06-2022 01:20 PM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  

(12-06-2022 01:11 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(12-06-2022 08:21 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  I swear I haven't checked the Vegas lines yet... but here's my gander before I verify.

UM -6.5 vs TCU
UGa -9.0 vs OSU

If it were UGa vs UM right now, I'd say UGa -4.0, so I'd give UGa an over -10 spread had they drawn TCU in the SFs.

PS: So UM is -7.5 and UGa is -6.5, but I still think UGa vs TCU would have been -8 or -9 given that UM is a heavier favorite than I thought over TCU.

Michigan opened as a 9.5-point favorite and that has not moved much. If the Michigan team that beat Penn State by 24 and Ohio State by 22 shows up, they should easily cover that number. I think Michigan wins this game on the line of scrimmage. They have the #3 rushing defense in the nation and the #6 rushing offense in the nation. TCU has the #66 rushing defense in the nation and the #25 ranked rushing offense.

Agree 100%. Second halves against this Wolverine squad end miserably for their opponents. It's almost like they play a bit of scoreboard rope-a-dope in the first half, even against clearly out-gunned teams.

What Michigan has are solid coordinators in the booth. The first half they run what the opponent expects and uses a familiar offense to probe for weaknesses. At halftime they alter their game plan to hit those weaknesses.

Herein resides the difference between your average football staff and a stellar one. Stellar staffs make adjustments in real time. Most coaching staffs talk about what happened in the first half and do not anticipate changes by the opponent. While this can happen to anyone, a great staff can huddle a defense or offense on the sideline and make changes in the middle of a quarter based upon booth and analyst information. Saban's staff can usually do this. This is why strong teams can look to be in trouble in the first half and then cruise. Depth plays a part to be sure, but coaching adjustments actually account for most of it.

What Michigan has to be ready for is Sonny Dykes. Dykes's staff makes tremendously insightful and well-coordinated adjustments in most second halves. It'll be tit for tat. This game will hinge on what most North vs South match ups comes down to, Size vs Speed. The question is how quickly the Michigan defensive front can get to the QB? That's truly different than stopping the run. Give TCU time to throw and the Michigan defensive backs will not be able to match the speed of TCU's receivers. If the pass rush can pressure TCU, then Michigan likely wins. I'm betting on speed.

Also, the size advantage is not what Michigan fans think. TCU has some beef, not Georgia level beef, but beef. If size was going to win for Michigan, they wouldn't have been drubbed by Georgia last year. The good news for Wolverine fans is that Georgia isn't as deep defensively this year and is a tad weaker at receiver.

BTW, Ohio State had more talent than Michigan both last year and this one. They lost twice because Day did not anticipate second half strategy changes and could not adjust in real time. That's an issue moving forward for Ohio State's staff, but one the right hires could correct.

(12-06-2022 12:32 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(12-06-2022 08:59 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-06-2022 08:11 AM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  Bama is undefeated in bowls becuase when they do lose it doesn’t count on the grounds that they just weren’t trying

FWIW, Saban doesn't lose a lot of bowls. With Alabama he's 15-6, and the great bulk of those games were NY6 bowls. But let's look at some of the losses:

They certainly tried in last year's national title game vs Georgia, and got beat.

They certainly tried in the 2018 national title game, and Clemson routed them.

They tried in the 2014 playoffs and were beaten by Ohio State.

But against Utah in 2008? With nothing on the line (by their standards) and the big disappointment of losing the SEC title game to Florida?

In the 2014 Sugar Bowl vs Oklahoma, again coming off the crushing loss to Auburn in the "kick six" game with nothing to play for?

Those shouldn't count, IMO.

But I would say half the time that Saban's Alabama team lost a bowl game, the team was fully-stocked and did its best.

This year's Sugar Bowl with K-State? Nothing to play for and probably a ton of guys will opt out, so not one to count, IMO.

I see you have the excuses pre-loaded

If Alabama does play the Sugar Bowl with a depleted team, like LSU played K-State in last year's bowl game, then IMO it just stands to reason that the game shouldn't "count" in any team-strength sense.

(12-06-2022 08:59 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-06-2022 08:11 AM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  Bama is undefeated in bowls becuase when they do lose it doesn’t count on the grounds that they just weren’t trying

FWIW, Saban doesn't lose a lot of bowls. With Alabama he's 15-6, and the great bulk of those games were NY6 bowls. But let's look at some of the losses:

They certainly tried in last year's national title game vs Georgia, and got beat.

They certainly tried in the 2018 national title game, and Clemson routed them.

They tried in the 2014 playoffs and were beaten by Ohio State.

But against Utah in 2008? With nothing on the line (by their standards) and the big disappointment of losing the SEC title game to Florida?

In the 2014 Sugar Bowl vs Oklahoma, again coming off the crushing loss to Auburn in the "kick six" game with nothing to play for?

Those shouldn't count, IMO.

But I would say half the time that Saban's Alabama team lost a bowl game, the team was fully-stocked and did its best.

This year's Sugar Bowl with K-State? Nothing to play for and probably a ton of guys will opt out, so not one to count, IMO.

I'm a big Bama homer (and season ticket holder) but there's a difference between providing context and simply saying games "don't count."

2014 Sugar Bowl is fair to point out that yeah, we were on track to be wire to wire #1 and play for a third straight BCS title until one of the rarest plays in football ended the whole season in about 10 seconds. People forget how well McCarron played down the wire in that game and I think if the kick six doesn't happen he might've even snuck into legitimate Heisman contention. So yeah, all that going away in an instant likely led to a team that wasn't as enthusiastic about the Sugar Bowl as OU was. Not an excuse and the result counts but it seemed kind of obvious.

2008 is a little different. I'm sure it was a letdown to be that close to playing for a championship and lose (had a 20-17 lead going into the 4th) but that team was a major overachiever to begin with, most of those players were Mike Shula recruits not Saban's, had been on some bad teams and just played in two straight Independence Bowls. The Sugar Bowl was a big deal. We were ready and just lost to a better team.