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RE: Dodd: Amazon interest may affect Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 composition...
(09-21-2022 05:52 PM)JRsec Wrote: (09-21-2022 05:14 PM)bullet Wrote: (09-21-2022 03:20 PM)JRsec Wrote: (09-21-2022 02:34 PM)bullet Wrote: (09-21-2022 01:31 PM)JRsec Wrote: Specifics are what is worked out when those at the top decide which plan to implement. Tell you what sport, when you are right about what's coming, just once, which you haven't been, I'll listen. Until then Mr. The Rose Bowl is so important and the B1G will not raid the PAC 12, and Texas will never join the SEC, and it's all about the values, I'll just keep on talking about the same things which are now public in remarks made by AD's like Swarbrick, and Commissioners, and pretty much everyone else, except maybe Wilner (who waffles on this). Consolidation is here. We likely are moving to 2 leagues, a transitional conference may occur, and yes, some form of a breakaway is likely. Whether that is just for football, just for revenue sports, or for all of it remains to be seen.
There's a downsizing coming in higher ed. The grouping will be part of it. Athletes will likely be compensated.
Football is to the U.S.A. what the Coliseum was to Rome, and the Olympics were to the U.S.S.R.. It's a cultural icon and an organizing principle for the structure of life in the civilization. It will not be abandoned lightly. As I have said many times, Form follows Function. As a unifying catalyst football needs to reach all regions. It needs to create a pressure valve for social frustration. Organizing a playoff so that it draws in all regions in a hopeful way creates that. It needs to reflect society, so scope is essential. Everything in life is currently in contraction and consolidation. Football will be as well. It needs to affirm values. Teamwork, striving for excellence, sacrifice, and in the future a social lesson on the survival of the productive, will all be part of it. We will need more workers and soldiers and fewer would-be stars. Consolidation and streamlining the economy of effort segways nicely into it.
Already you see kids choosing trades over B.A.'s in non-STEM fields. That's a good thing! We need electricians and plumbers more than sociology majors.
So, there are much greater reasons for the direction of college football than just Amazon's profits or ESPN's quarterly statements, or Oregon's value to the Big 10.
This isn't your 1990-2 or even your 2010-2 realignment. This is a coup d'état of the top programs and consolidation. An argument could be made that 2010-2 was a table setting series of moves. Maybe? Maybe not? USC/UCLA & Texas/Oklahoma were the de-capitating of the PAC 12 and B12. That hasn't really happened before. These are coldblooded bold moves to re-arrange and restructure the game. Money is merely the lure. And to hear you tell it it's still about simply adding value. Well yes, and no, at the same time. Value will always be part of the mechanism. But, there so much more to it than that. There's a concept which is being attained. Wanton destruction of 2 associations of state schools doesn't just happen without a transition plan. There would be way too much liability. Hence a compilation conference is likely.
Once you accept a bigger picture and that it isn't just about conferences, NBC, CBS, ABC, FOX, Disney, or Amazon and that they are merely plugging in for profits and are symbionts within a greater movement, and for looming reasons beyond just profit, then I think you will begin to grasp the scope of change.
You have used words like wonk, realignment junkie, and other such veiled ad hominem in dealing with my comments. They only reply to that I have is that I haven't backed down from any of my assertions, have heretofore been unusually accurate, and simply qualify my remarks with systems will work as they do, maybe 2 schools at a time is comfortable for commissioners and academics, but critical mass has been reached, and I do believe the next series of moves will be quicker and likely will involve more than 2 at a time. And we are in a transition to 2 leagues. Does that take 2 years or 14? We'll see. My gut says sooner.
What do you care to predict now Frank the Tank? Right or Wrong I've told you where I stand. You keep coming back with "well you were right" followed by "but you don't understand things like I do", and "this can never happen because". Well thank God I don't. I lived long enough to know rules don't stop consensus, and they don't stop necessity, and they frequently don't stop those with the most money, and government can change them or ignore them. The world is gray. Nothing but death and taxes are gestalt. And in this case a convergence of paradigm shifts is the impetus creating the necessity and my money is on that!
There are definitely some at the top with this vision. But they aren't ESPN execs. Its conference commissioners and ADs.
I also don't share your Deep South Jimmy Carter limitations mentality. I didn't understand Jimmy Carter until I moved to Georgia. Despite being a growing state, there is a lot of "we can't do that" and limitation mentality. In Texas, they believe the sky is the limit. Schools in the south are growing. Schools in the west are growing. Big state flagships in the North are growing. Its the regional publics and private schools in the north and a few privates and rural regional schools in the South and West that are hurting. The whole university system is not crashing down. It is adapting.
College football will continue to be popular for a long time. Much of what happened to boxing, baseball and NASCAR was self-inflicted. NASCAR abandoned its roots. Baseball's greed by all resulted in strikes. Boxing's greed resulted in an alphabet of titles. Basketball and football have profited from baseball's mistakes. So has soccer. For anyone who thinks baseball is too slow and boring---soccer anyone???? MMA has profited from boxing's mistakes.
1. I didn't list ESPN/Disney execs as visionaries, and I damn sure didn't list AD's and commissioners. They are reactive, as are execs, to those higher up the ladder in business and government who follow cultural trends and lend advice down the chain of command.
2. You don't share my Deep South Jimmy Carter limitation's view? Where did you get that crap? Where did I ever say we couldn't do something. Frank is the one always saying what we can't do. I said exactly the opposite. I said consensus isn't stopped by rules, and that necessity ignores them. You need to read my final paragraph again! I've been practicing the "Art of the Deal" for well over half my life. Can't is the one we fire! Adapt, Innovate, and Overcome! It works well for Marines and it works well in business! Texans didn't corner the market on can do!
3. "College football will be popular for a long time." Your analysis misses the reality. The problem is the declining number of participants in football. Cost to parents for equipment, especially poor parents, at the peewee, Jr. High, and High School level hurts (where it isn't just provided), injuries discourage middle class mom support, and the computer game culture has cut into it quite a bit.
If you are talking just the SW and SE we do have solid participation at those levels and local culture embraces and encourages play. That's true in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and parts of Southern California. It's clearly dying everywhere else and Millennials and those following don't play, don't watch, and don't care. This is why 2036 is so key. In 2036 the oldest Boomers are 90, those from '56 will be 80 and the youngest Boomers ('62) will be 74. X'ers don't have the income or numbers to keep viewership up and scholarships funded as well as Boomers and when they pass Bullet, football will be recognized for what it is already, a regional sport. That's why 22 of the last 25 champions are from the Deep South or Southwest. It's not an accident.
And strikes didn't kill baseball and boxing. Lack of participation did! Kids still play Little League, much fewer of them play in their teens and much of that is niche travel ball. Expense killed it as well. Bats, balls, gloves, and mitts, and catching equipment is costly. I know because I once donated a lot of it locally. Football for kids ain't cheap and mom's no longer support it. That means a short shelf life.
Strikes did cripple pro baseball. Football and basketball learned the lesson.
Boxing was all the stupid split titles. You didn't know the stars anymore as there were 4 or 5 champs in every division. Made money for the promoters who didn't have the single champ, but hurt the sport. MMA is proof boxing could still be popular. Its not like there are peewee MMA leagues.
My grandfather flew to the fights. Nothing has changed Bullet. It's poor kids with few options getting their brains beat out hoping it will be their chance out of a bad life. It works out for half a dozen or so a decade. Gambling and dives were part of it. I'd tout Olympic Boxing, but the outcomes were rigged. People got turned off, but you know what, they should have been sickened years before. I will say it was the closest thing in my lifetime to real gladiators killing for the amusement of the mob. I feel the same way about MMA. I'm all about teaching the troops hand to hand, but if you have to use it, it had better be for keeps. Pummeling somebody for entertainment is perverse, IMO.
I like boxing. My Father was a golden gloves boxer. But I don't like MMA. Its like street fighting with no moral code. When I was a kid and kids fought, there was a code. You didn't kick, elbow, knee. You didn't strangle the other guy. You didn't continue to pummel them once they were down. You fought fairly.
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