https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...16-10abi8e

First paragraph is a good summary.

Quote:Amazon has emerged as a significant party in college football media rights talks and therefore may become a player in further conference realignment, CBS Sports has learned. The technology giant has been linked to all three conferences that figure to come to resolutions on conference composition in the coming months given its interest in the Big Ten, Big 12 and Pac-12, according to industry sources.

Well, if anything, they could follow their TNF package with a CFB game, but it's tough because the NFL game doesn't kick off until 8:15pm ET. If they could bump that game up, they could be a player in the late night window on Thursdays. The Friday night game is a given, perhaps even a double header on Fridays. Saturday would pit them with the rest of the major players. Not something I'd be comfortable with unless I can complement my NFL package. I don't think the ESPN/ABC MNF setup (7:15-8:30pm ET double header) will fly if it's NFL followed by college.

I did think Disney hit a homerun last night with the double header. The only complaint is there was too many look-ins at the NFL stars in Philli while the Buffalo game was still tight.

Excellent reporting by Dennis Dodd.

This is actually pretty interesting.

Essentially, Dodd is saying that Amazon is still speaking to the Big Ten, which wouldn't be happening unless there were at least the potential of expansion occurring. At the same time, he reiterated what I've seen elsewhere from John Ourand and other sports media reporters: Amazon actually offered *more* money than both CBS and NBC to the Big Ten but the league turned it down.

If the Big Ten can expand to create enough desirable inventory where Amazon is offering more money than either NBC or CBS for another game of the week package (think Friday nights), then that *might* address any concerns from current Big Ten members that expansion would reduce per school revenue.

I'm still skeptical that the Big Ten would pull the trigger on a 20-team league this year, but the prospect of Amazon still talking to the league (more so than the linear TV providers) at least addresses where a legitimately larger pot of money could potentially be coming from (as opposed to relying upon an argument that size for the sake of size creates value).

(09-20-2022 04:45 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  This is actually pretty interesting.

Essentially, Dodd is saying that Amazon is still speaking to the Big Ten, which wouldn't be happening unless there were at least the potential of expansion occurring. At the same time, he reiterated what I've seen elsewhere from John Ourand and other sports media reporters: Amazon actually offered *more* money than both CBS and NBC to the Big Ten but the league turned it down.

If the Big Ten can expand to create enough desirable inventory where Amazon is offering more money than either NBC or CBS for another game of the week package (think Friday nights), then that *might* address any concerns from current Big Ten members that expansion would reduce per school revenue.

I'm still skeptical that the Big Ten would pull the trigger on a 20-team league this year, but the prospect of Amazon still talking to the league (more so than the linear TV providers) at least addresses where a legitimately larger pot of money could potentially be coming from (as opposed to relying upon an argument that size for the sake of size creates value).

You're trackin', Frank!

(09-20-2022 04:45 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  This is actually pretty interesting.

Essentially, Dodd is saying that Amazon is still speaking to the Big Ten, which wouldn't be happening unless there were at least the potential of expansion occurring. At the same time, he reiterated what I've seen elsewhere from John Ourand and other sports media reporters: Amazon actually offered *more* money than both CBS and NBC to the Big Ten but the league turned it down.

If the Big Ten can expand to create enough desirable inventory where Amazon is offering more money than either NBC or CBS for another game of the week package (think Friday nights), then that *might* address any concerns from current Big Ten members that expansion would reduce per school revenue.

I'm still skeptical that the Big Ten would pull the trigger on a 20-team league this year, but the prospect of Amazon still talking to the league (more so than the linear TV providers) at least addresses where a legitimately larger pot of money could potentially be coming from (as opposed to relying upon an argument that size for the sake of size creates value).

Going to 20 now means they have to go beyond 20 when Notre Dame becomes interested. Now they could be short-sighted and just ignore that possibility, but I would think they would stop at 18.

(09-20-2022 04:45 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  This is actually pretty interesting.

Essentially, Dodd is saying that Amazon is still speaking to the Big Ten, which wouldn't be happening unless there were at least the potential of expansion occurring. At the same time, he reiterated what I've seen elsewhere from John Ourand and other sports media reporters: Amazon actually offered *more* money than both CBS and NBC to the Big Ten but the league turned it down.

If the Big Ten can expand to create enough desirable inventory where Amazon is offering more money than either NBC or CBS for another game of the week package (think Friday nights), then that *might* address any concerns from current Big Ten members that expansion would reduce per school revenue.

I'm still skeptical that the Big Ten would pull the trigger on a 20-team league this year, but the prospect of Amazon still talking to the league (more so than the linear TV providers) at least addresses where a legitimately larger pot of money could potentially be coming from (as opposed to relying upon an argument that size for the sake of size creates value).

ESPN has also expressed interest in talking to the B1G if they add some/all of the PN4, setting us up for a potential bidding war... Which is probably what any combination of the PN4 will need to get the rest of the B1G Presidents into the "Yes" column.

UW/Oregon fans: save us amazon

(09-20-2022 05:26 PM)superdeluxe Wrote:  UW/Oregon fans: save us amazon

This will likely be the case in either the Pac or the the B1G. Overbid for the Pac to get their feet wet on a smaller deal then they might need to make for a B1G expansion. Keeps Oregon and UW more in the ballpark of revenue for when the next expansion train comes (if it's not now).

Another Dennis Dodd posting, basically speculating about Pac’s further defection to the BIG.

I am sure that the Pac is talking with Amazon as ESPN lowballed and Fox is not interested in the Pac media deal. But why should the BIG reconsider Amazon and Pac 12 schools now? They must have crunched the numbers multiple times before signing the media deal and decided Amazon / Oregon / Washington were not valuable enough (in terms of money and/or exposure).

(09-20-2022 06:03 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  Another Dennis Dodd posting, basically speculating about Pac’s further defection to the BIG.

I am sure that the Pac is talking with Amazon as ESPN lowballed and Fox is not interested in the Pac media deal. But why should the BIG reconsider Amazon and Pac 12 schools now? They must have crunched the numbers multiple times before signing the media deal and decided Amazon / Oregon / Washington were not valuable enough (in terms of money and/or exposure).

Because they can always up the offer. Either way, the digital player needs a game on Friday and they can either go with the Big 12 with loner BYU in the late night, or add some 4 corners, or pay for a west coast package in the B1G which is built into the contract. If you have 4 options to rotate from between USC UCLA UO and UW, you have something that dominates a Friday night. I don't think they'd pay for Stanford and Cal as well, but you'd figure any digital player is fond of the Bay teams as are the B1G Presidents.

(09-20-2022 06:11 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(09-20-2022 06:03 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  Another Dennis Dodd posting, basically speculating about Pac’s further defection to the BIG.

I am sure that the Pac is talking with Amazon as ESPN lowballed and Fox is not interested in the Pac media deal. But why should the BIG reconsider Amazon and Pac 12 schools now? They must have crunched the numbers multiple times before signing the media deal and decided Amazon / Oregon / Washington were not valuable enough (in terms of money and/or exposure).

Because they can always up the offer. Either way, the digital player needs a game on Friday and they can either go with the Big 12 with loner BYU in the late night, or add some 4 corners, or pay for a west coast package in the B1G which is built into the contract. If you have 4 options to rotate from between USC UCLA UO and UW, you have something that dominates a Friday night. I don't think they'd pay for Stanford and Cal as well, but you'd figure any digital player is fond of the Bay teams as are the B1G Presidents.

On this point, I agree.

It’s not so much even looking at games that involve Michigan, Ohio State or Penn State.

That Washington-Michigan State game that was on ABC Saturday Night Football this past week might well be the third or fourth pick game for the TV networks in a 20-team Big Ten. Washington/Oregon vs. Wisconsin/Nebraska/Iowa/Michigan State is going to be more valuable than any game in the current Pac-12 package save for Washington-Oregon or any Big 12 game. Heck, Stanford/UCLA/Cal against any of those teams may be more valuable, and once again, we’re not even talking about their games against Michigan/Ohio State/Penn State/USC.

There’s just a lot more depth there where even the mid-tier Big Ten games in a 20-team league might very well be better than even the best Pac-12 or Big 12 game in most weeks.

In any event, I see Amazon approaching sports much more like the OTA networks than someone like Apple. They’re not going for filler content: their sports rights in the US are the NFL nationally along with Yankees games in the NYC market. They got the Champions League rights in the UK. Amazon’s M.O. for sports is very much looking for big brands - it’s not about having sports content for the sake of having sports content for them like a lot of ESPN+ or Peacock up to this point.

Yeah, but AMZN still needs to re-bid on USC and UCLA. That means CBS and NBC have to be made whole. You could have Amazon paying CBS/NBC and perhaps Fox a royalty to flex USC out of a Saturday game. I'm not talking about a weekly flex, but any type of weekly priority flex has to be negotiated back in with AMZN paying for some type of buyout. With 2.5 games coming off the B1G board on a weekly basis, many will already involve UCLA and USC. That's where Stanford and Cal could have some clout in terms of getting those annual USC/UCLA matchups on a Prime streaming service Friday night.

It's also possible Amazon just buys the fourth B1G game outright, but there is no impetus to overpay for UO and UW unless a late night option is included in the package as a double header. In fact, the PAC10 option would be a lot cheaper for them and provide 4-5 games of content per week.

(09-20-2022 06:56 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(09-20-2022 06:11 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(09-20-2022 06:03 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  Another Dennis Dodd posting, basically speculating about Pac’s further defection to the BIG.

I am sure that the Pac is talking with Amazon as ESPN lowballed and Fox is not interested in the Pac media deal. But why should the BIG reconsider Amazon and Pac 12 schools now? They must have crunched the numbers multiple times before signing the media deal and decided Amazon / Oregon / Washington were not valuable enough (in terms of money and/or exposure).

Because they can always up the offer. Either way, the digital player needs a game on Friday and they can either go with the Big 12 with loner BYU in the late night, or add some 4 corners, or pay for a west coast package in the B1G which is built into the contract. If you have 4 options to rotate from between USC UCLA UO and UW, you have something that dominates a Friday night. I don't think they'd pay for Stanford and Cal as well, but you'd figure any digital player is fond of the Bay teams as are the B1G Presidents.

On this point, I agree.

It’s not so much even looking at games that involve Michigan, Ohio State or Penn State.

That Washington-Michigan State game that was on ABC Saturday Night Football this past week might well be the third or fourth pick game for the TV networks in a 20-team Big Ten. Washington/Oregon vs. Wisconsin/Nebraska/Iowa/Michigan State is going to be more valuable than any game in the current Pac-12 package save for Washington-Oregon or any Big 12 game. Heck, Stanford/UCLA/Cal against any of those teams may be more valuable, and once again, we’re not even talking about their games against Michigan/Ohio State/Penn State/USC.

There’s just a lot more depth there where even the mid-tier Big Ten games in a 20-team league might very well be better than even the best Pac-12 or Big 12 game in most weeks.

In any event, I see Amazon approaching sports much more like the OTA networks than someone like Apple. They’re not going for filler content: their sports rights in the US are the NFL nationally along with Yankees games in the NYC market. They got the Champions League rights in the UK. Amazon’s M.O. for sports is very much looking for big brands - it’s not about having sports content for the sake of having sports content for them like a lot of ESPN+ or Peacock up to this point.

Basically UW & UO are more valuable in the B1G than the pac.

(09-20-2022 05:09 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(09-20-2022 04:45 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  This is actually pretty interesting.

Essentially, Dodd is saying that Amazon is still speaking to the Big Ten, which wouldn't be happening unless there were at least the potential of expansion occurring. At the same time, he reiterated what I've seen elsewhere from John Ourand and other sports media reporters: Amazon actually offered *more* money than both CBS and NBC to the Big Ten but the league turned it down.

If the Big Ten can expand to create enough desirable inventory where Amazon is offering more money than either NBC or CBS for another game of the week package (think Friday nights), then that *might* address any concerns from current Big Ten members that expansion would reduce per school revenue.

I'm still skeptical that the Big Ten would pull the trigger on a 20-team league this year, but the prospect of Amazon still talking to the league (more so than the linear TV providers) at least addresses where a legitimately larger pot of money could potentially be coming from (as opposed to relying upon an argument that size for the sake of size creates value).

Going to 20 now means they have to go beyond 20 when Notre Dame becomes interested. Now they could be short-sighted and just ignore that possibility, but I would think they would stop at 18.

Some ND fans on here say they’d pick the SEC over the Big Ten if they’re forced to join a conference. I’m not joking.

(09-20-2022 06:03 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  Another Dennis Dodd posting, basically speculating about Pac’s further defection to the BIG.

I am sure that the Pac is talking with Amazon as ESPN lowballed and Fox is not interested in the Pac media deal. But why should the BIG reconsider Amazon and Pac 12 schools now? They must have crunched the numbers multiple times before signing the media deal and decided Amazon / Oregon / Washington were not valuable enough (in terms of money and/or exposure).

Another way to say that is “why should Amazon hugely overpay for PN4 in the B1G when they can pay less for them in the PAC”. I don’t want to say that they’re the favorites to land the PAC now, but they might be. And if they like the pac, they must really be interested in the big 12.

I’m getting dangerously close to forecasting both pac and big 12 keep their current roster this cycle with payouts like:

PAC $37.5m all Amazon
Big12 $42.5m, ESPN and Fox

That won’t be much fun for us bc we won’t have as much to talk about, but it would be a huge win for both of those conferences.

(09-20-2022 07:55 PM)Poster Wrote:  

(09-20-2022 05:09 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(09-20-2022 04:45 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  This is actually pretty interesting.

Essentially, Dodd is saying that Amazon is still speaking to the Big Ten, which wouldn't be happening unless there were at least the potential of expansion occurring. At the same time, he reiterated what I've seen elsewhere from John Ourand and other sports media reporters: Amazon actually offered *more* money than both CBS and NBC to the Big Ten but the league turned it down.

If the Big Ten can expand to create enough desirable inventory where Amazon is offering more money than either NBC or CBS for another game of the week package (think Friday nights), then that *might* address any concerns from current Big Ten members that expansion would reduce per school revenue.

I'm still skeptical that the Big Ten would pull the trigger on a 20-team league this year, but the prospect of Amazon still talking to the league (more so than the linear TV providers) at least addresses where a legitimately larger pot of money could potentially be coming from (as opposed to relying upon an argument that size for the sake of size creates value).

Going to 20 now means they have to go beyond 20 when Notre Dame becomes interested. Now they could be short-sighted and just ignore that possibility, but I would think they would stop at 18.

Some ND fans on here say they’d pick the SEC over the Big Ten if they’re forced to join a conference. I’m not joking.

They wouldn’t pick us today. But the longer they hold out the more SEC momentum there will be. Probably won’t matter though, they can keep playing the p2 against each other to maintain independence indefinitely.

(09-20-2022 08:21 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(09-20-2022 06:03 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  Another Dennis Dodd posting, basically speculating about Pac’s further defection to the BIG.

I am sure that the Pac is talking with Amazon as ESPN lowballed and Fox is not interested in the Pac media deal. But why should the BIG reconsider Amazon and Pac 12 schools now? They must have crunched the numbers multiple times before signing the media deal and decided Amazon / Oregon / Washington were not valuable enough (in terms of money and/or exposure).

Another way to say that is “why should Amazon hugely overpay for PN4 in the B1G when they can pay less for them in the PAC”. I don’t want to say that they’re the favorites to land the PAC now, but they might be. And if they like the pac, they must really be interested in the big 12.

I’m getting dangerously close to forecasting both pac and big 12 keep their current roster this cycle with payouts like:

PAC $37.5m all Amazon
Big12 $42.5m, ESPN and Fox

That won’t be much fun for us bc we won’t have as much to talk about, but it would be a huge win for both of those conferences.

I don't see any conference going all-streaming right now unless the payout is LIV Golf-esque; you're just giving up so much in terms of exposure. I also don't see the Big 12 schools getting $5M/year more than the Pac schools. There's a lot of value in the late night time slot and eventually I think ESPN will pay a premium for that.

(09-20-2022 08:39 PM)World Wide Swag Wrote:  

(09-20-2022 08:21 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(09-20-2022 06:03 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  Another Dennis Dodd posting, basically speculating about Pac’s further defection to the BIG.

I am sure that the Pac is talking with Amazon as ESPN lowballed and Fox is not interested in the Pac media deal. But why should the BIG reconsider Amazon and Pac 12 schools now? They must have crunched the numbers multiple times before signing the media deal and decided Amazon / Oregon / Washington were not valuable enough (in terms of money and/or exposure).

Another way to say that is “why should Amazon hugely overpay for PN4 in the B1G when they can pay less for them in the PAC”. I don’t want to say that they’re the favorites to land the PAC now, but they might be. And if they like the pac, they must really be interested in the big 12.

I’m getting dangerously close to forecasting both pac and big 12 keep their current roster this cycle with payouts like:

PAC $37.5m all Amazon
Big12 $42.5m, ESPN and Fox

That won’t be much fun for us bc we won’t have as much to talk about, but it would be a huge win for both of those conferences.

I don't see any conference going all-streaming right now unless the payout is LIV Golf-esque; you're just giving up so much in terms of exposure. I also don't see the Big 12 schools getting $5M/year more than the Pac schools. There's a lot of value in the late night time slot and eventually I think ESPN will pay a premium for that.

You haven’t been paying attention in that case. The pac needs every penny to (hopefully) stop some or all of the 4C from defecting. Streaming is the coming wave, Amazon already has Thursday night NFL and they bid on the B1G. If the pac doesn’t get streaming they’re currently looking at less than $30m per school and a possible disintegration of the conference. The only surprising thing to me would be if the conference didn’t suffer any more defections and also didn’t go at least in part on streaming.

(09-20-2022 08:47 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(09-20-2022 08:39 PM)World Wide Swag Wrote:  

(09-20-2022 08:21 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(09-20-2022 06:03 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  Another Dennis Dodd posting, basically speculating about Pac’s further defection to the BIG.

I am sure that the Pac is talking with Amazon as ESPN lowballed and Fox is not interested in the Pac media deal. But why should the BIG reconsider Amazon and Pac 12 schools now? They must have crunched the numbers multiple times before signing the media deal and decided Amazon / Oregon / Washington were not valuable enough (in terms of money and/or exposure).

Another way to say that is “why should Amazon hugely overpay for PN4 in the B1G when they can pay less for them in the PAC”. I don’t want to say that they’re the favorites to land the PAC now, but they might be. And if they like the pac, they must really be interested in the big 12.

I’m getting dangerously close to forecasting both pac and big 12 keep their current roster this cycle with payouts like:

PAC $37.5m all Amazon
Big12 $42.5m, ESPN and Fox

That won’t be much fun for us bc we won’t have as much to talk about, but it would be a huge win for both of those conferences.

I don't see any conference going all-streaming right now unless the payout is LIV Golf-esque; you're just giving up so much in terms of exposure. I also don't see the Big 12 schools getting $5M/year more than the Pac schools. There's a lot of value in the late night time slot and eventually I think ESPN will pay a premium for that.

You haven’t been paying attention in that case. The pac needs every penny to (hopefully) stop some or all of the 4C from defecting. Streaming is the coming wave, Amazon already has Thursday night NFL and they bid on the B1G. If the pac doesn’t get streaming they’re currently looking at less than $30m per school and a possible disintegration of the conference. The only surprising thing to me would be if the conference didn’t suffer any more defections and also didn’t go at least in part on streaming.

I think the Pac will definitely go partially streaming, along with ESPN who will want the late night time slot. We don't really know what the Pac 12 or Big 12 are looking at for their next TV deals, unless you believe Jason Scheer (which you shouldn't). Assuming the Big Ten doesn't raid again in the short term, the Pac-12 will easily have the two best brands of either conference in Oregon and Washington. And if Oregon and Washington are in the fold, why would the four corners schools bail? Yes, Oregon and Washington could defect in 2030-whatever, but the Big 12 could also get raided. In that event, the four corners would much rather remain aligned with Stanford and Cal and take their pick of Big 12 schools (i.e. not West Virginia, Cincinnati, Kansas State or UCF). Any Pac-12 president would be aghast at aligning their university with those aforementioned Big 12 schools; they'll only do it if the financial incentive is monumental.