Skyhawk
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RE: If Ohio State joins the SEC, is the conference battle done?
(07-17-2022 07:19 PM)JRsec Wrote: (07-17-2022 07:09 PM)Skyhawk Wrote: (07-17-2022 07:03 PM)Section 200 Wrote: (07-17-2022 06:42 PM)UpStreamRedTeam Wrote: (07-17-2022 06:20 PM)JRsec Wrote: Frank you have been consistently wrong on the revenue point. Yes you make more media money, but if Ohio State came to the SEC, which is the premise, they would make even more in the SEC because Ohio State is 19.5% of the B1G's total value and would find the rest of the SEC, which is more balanced in value throughout than the Big 10 accretive to its media value. Ohio State is the top B1G value. That means the rest of you drag their value down.
Now name me the last year when the total sports revenue of the Big 10 exceeded that of the B1G? I'll wait but won't hold my breath because it's been a long time. The SEC averages 5 million most years in total revenue than does the Big 10. You like to pick on media revenue because it is the only sports revenue facet you lead in, that is until last year! You'll lead again for a few and then the SEC is projected to pull ahead.
Now if you want to talk academic endowments and grant money I'll gladly concede. But we are talking sports revenue, so apples to apples. SEC gate, SEC donations, SEC licensing, SEC attendance, and the SEC market impact numbers all exceed that of the B1G.
As Joe Friday would say, "Nothing but the facts Ma'am!"
Forgetting the money for a moment, why on earth would Ohio State want to leave the B1G, where they are the center of the universe, to be just another team that isn’t Alabama? Texas is going tin for a bit a shock when they realize they are no longer special in the SEC, but the increase in revenue will be too much to pass up. The difference in what Ohio State could make in the SEC is negligible, compared to what they will be giving up in the Big Ten.
Because money - they can make more $$ in the SEC by moving all the big brands together. Why did Texas leave the Big 12, USC leave the Pac 12, Maryland leave the ACC - money. Big 10 is too snobby to admit the schools necessary to earn the most money & has too many schools to kick out. Consolidation must happen in the SEC if it is going to happen. Plus Ohio State thinks it can win the SEC.
There are "drags" on potential total money per conference in the SEC too.
So let's look at the 4 JRsec suggested.
If it's about the money, Would the SEC be willing to drop AR, MS state, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky, in order to pick up ND, OH state, Penn state, and Michigan?
If not, why not? If it's all about the money...
But if it's not all about the money, then you also have your answer to why those schools are less-than-likely to join the SEC.
That wasn't my point. Ohio State is ~20% of the B1G's total value. Your media payout is an average of all 14 schools right now. That means 13 are pulling OSU's value down. Where did I say the Big 10 should cut anyone? I didn't. The issue of the OP is Ohio State.
In the SEC Alabama represents 14% of the SEC's value in a 14-member SEC. Now let that sink in. Yes, everyone else is below them but the real drag is in the bottom 5. In the Big 10 like the Big 12 Michigan is 17% of the total value and the bottom 8 are the drag on revenue.
Therefore, Ohio State would have more upside in a move to the SEC than Alabama would have in a move to the Big 10, especially with UT and OU included.
I understand that, and you kind of made my point about the drag from the bottom. Ohio state has to want to move.
If the arguement is about drag from the bottom, over institutional fit, etc etc. then wouldn't Ohio state look at the SEC and pretty much see the same thing as the B10? And honestly, for them to join the SEC that way, it would be the SEC using Ohio state to up their media deal. Ohio state could stay at home and get that done for itself. Negotiations are going on right now, after all.
Everyone keeps wanting to add schools to gain more money. That's an unsustainable path. Eventually schools are either going to need to be dropped, or (more likely) the more valuable schools will leave to form a new conference.
It's not rocket science. Just ask the WAC and the MWC how it works (and to be sure, that split up was rather messy.)
At some point the core SEC schools will eventually start a new conference, it's really just a matter of when. Until then, we're unlikely to see big ten schools move.
and this while only talking about media deals. As you've mentioned there are other things and other revenue sources to consider as well.
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