(06-26-2022 11:13 PM)Lurker Above Wrote:  

(06-26-2022 05:19 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(06-26-2022 11:34 AM)Lurker Above Wrote:  

(06-20-2022 11:19 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(06-17-2022 11:11 PM)ken d Wrote:  I'm not a lawyer, but I don't believe that bolded statement is technically true. Whether UNC wanted to go to the B1G or to the SEC they would still have to negotiate their release from the GoR with the ACC and whatever schools remain in it, just like OUT have to do to leave the Big 12 early.

Absolutely correct.

I'm not an insider and I've made a lot of predictions over the years - some have been right and some have been wrong.

However, I have a firm understanding of contract law. That bolded statement is a total misunderstanding of how a Grant of Rights agreement works. It is irrelevant that ESPN holds the rights to both the SEC and ACC at the same time. Each ACC school granted its rights to the *conference* - NOT ESPN. It's the ACC that has to release any schools from grant of rights agreements and they have an absolute, unequivocal 100% power to use any basis (whether reasonable or unreasonable or no matter how much money is offered) to refuse that release. The fact that the released schools would be under a different SEC contract with ESPN instead of FOX is totally irrelevant to the ACC.

Here's the thing: the fact that schools and conferences "talk" doesn't matter. Lots of schools and conferences talk all of the time. If you were to tell me that UNC has talked with the SEC and/or Big Ten, I wouldn't doubt that has occurred.

However, as a lawyer, absolutely no one has shown me why (a) the ACC would ever release any school from its Grant of Rights agreement when it still has over a dozen years to run and (b) even if the ACC were willing to do so, how any defecting school would be willing to pay the high nine figure amounts that would realistically need to be offered to the ACC to obtain that release. Sure, every school would love to earn $30 million or $40 million more per year in TV rights. It's a different equation if a school has to pay $200-$300 million or more upfront to obtain a GOR release to get that additional TV money, which would effectively eat up such additional TV money.

Here's a not-so-crazy thought that cuts through all of the conspiracy theories about ESPN and other parties in college football: the ACC schools might simply be screwed until the mid-2030s no matter how much they want to leave. They have onerous GOR obligations that will effectively prevent them from realizing the additional revenue that they'd receive from the SEC and Big Ten in the first place, so they have no viable options. Notre Dame is a lone wolf that believes independence is part of their institutional identity, so they're not helping the ACC, either. The ACC schools can complain or talk all that they want, but it doesn't matter. They're stuck.

All good points Frank. So let's use use your numbers, even enhance the numbers in your favor. Let's say the buyout to leave the ACC is $400,000,000.00 with a leave date of 2026. So for $400M a school could leave the ACC 10 years early.

Let's also consider college football is still under valued as to the brand named schools. Basically, you must concede we do not know the value of Clemson, FSU, UNC and VT in the SEC, which I contend is substantially greater than they are in the ACC.

Now let's consider these schools could make $50M per year more in the SEC. I surmise such is a reasonable and conservative value. The same analysis could be done with the B1G, but I think these schools are worth more in the SEC because of the existing rivalries, existing competiveness for recruits and bragging rights that has existed for generations between schools that rarely play each other (UGA fans always watch what's going on at FSU and Clemson) and the natural potential rivalries due to geography.

From the these four schools' perspective they would make $100M more in the SEC over the next ten years. Probably more with the enhanced value the SEC would have with such concentration of brands. Not only could they make more money but their ticket would be punched for the future wealth and prestige of being in the SEC. Therefore, I really do see a huge problem on the schools' side of the equation.

That leaves the other side of the equation; the extra four mouths to feed in the SEC cannot cause the existing SEC 16 schools to receive less money. I seriously doubt they would. Arguably the brand value of Clemson, FSU, UNC and VT in the SEC is worth as much as the average brand value of the existing SEC16, plus the SEC would be adding two new populous and growing states, a second school in its second most populous state, and creating numerous extra brand vs brand games each year. It's hard to see how the math does not work.

Of course the second side of the equation also includes the various interests of the SEC. It would have to pay the SEC more, but that really isn't an impediment that couldnt be overcome because ESPN would benefit from the increased brand on brand games and more heated rivalries, as discussed above as to value. They would be getting sufficient value for they would be paying out.

The more complex analysis is the diminished value of the ACC. First, these schools would have to initiate the movement stating, "While we intend on honoring our ACC contract and our obligations to ESPN, because of the changing forces in college football and the need act in our best interests to meet this challenges, we will not commit to signing a new contract with the ACC after the present contract expires. That removes ESPN from a claim they are instigating the moves. In fact, ESPN will likely publicly decrie such movement, but the die will be cast. These schools will be leaving and they cannot be allowed to go to the B1G.

This means the remaining ACC will get the full value of their ESPN contract, and ESPN and those remaining schools will each try to maximize their value after the breakaway the best they can.

Enter Notre Dame. If they are going to join a conference, and this concentration of brands might force their hands, the new SEC likely trumps the B1G. The SEC would be at 20 and the Fighting Irish will point out the possibility of four more tickets if they are one of the four. Which three schools get a ticket? Duke with it's basketball brand? Louisville with the same and in-state rivalry with Kentucky? Kansas? UVA? NCS because of political reasons? Pitt? Miami? GT? WV to balance out the strength of a northeast quadrant? OSU for Bedlam and to prevent the potential of OU being the only SEC school without their in-state rival not being a conference rival? Baylor? TCU?

Then we do the above analysis again, but this time with greater desperation, political influence, the greater gravital pull of money being sucked into this new horizon, and the realization that the cost to create this new universe and the increased value it would create separating itself from the rest of college football one way or another will lead to the conclusion that the SEC goes to 24 or 28. And ESPN wisely pays the freight and markets the new NFL Lite as such.

So which schools make it? No one can see the future, but my best guess is every current SEC member's main in-state rival that is a state university and a P5 school gets an invite with ND. That's UVA, NCS, Louisville, and GT. Southern state politics gets this done, and in-state rivalries are safe bets for full stadiums and at least regional interest. Though GT must improve it's football culture immediately and assuage legitimate concerns over the level of support from the school and it's fans. Miami is tough because it is relatively small with fair weather fans, but also you would awaken that sleeping giant and many of those south Florida recruits might stay home. On the final analysis they get in with a commitment to build an on campus stadium. That's 26. Duke and Kansas makes it 28, and having 5 basketball super brand helps ESPN pay the freight.

ESPN is also left with the rights to the other ACC schools and leverages them the best it can with football and basketball games with the B1G. TT most likely goes to the PAC with Houston, making it the PAC 14, the same size as the B1G, and together the same size as the SEC 28. The rest of the Big12 has limited options, along with the ACC remnants.

The SEC 28 will be a force never seen in college sports and is itself a breakaway. The B1G is left primarily with its alliance with the PAC. Because the B1G's current intra conference games are worth more than playing most PAC schools I doubt a merger occurs, but the B1G inviting all AAU members is a possibility. Either way, after being shut out of the south it's long term interest would be to increase the the interest in football and B1G schools inside California, which must be a greater source of recruits moving forward.

This is how a top tier of 56 is born.

Lurker Above

I notice you did not address how much the 10 ACC schools would have to pay to Pitt, Syracuse, Boston College and Wake Forest for leaving a dozen years early. At a minimum it would appear that number would be north of $2 billion. Where is that money going to come from if ESPN has just committed to paying $840 million a year to the SEC just to maintain it at its current average per school?

Maybe, just maybe, ESPN could justify adding Clemson, FSU, UNC and Virginia Tech (though I would guess UNC would insist on UVa instead of Va Tech). Beyond that I think we're imagining the impossible.

In this scenario 11 of the 15 ACC joins the SEC. 11 votes can disband the ACC, I believe. The remaining 4 would get exit fees but not GOR money. At least that's my understanding.

Notre Dame is a full voting member and a full member for all sports but football. This means you have to have 3/4's of all voting members. It would take 12 because of the fraction.

Should the SEC and Big 12 account for all 15 and should the resultant merger of B12 and ACC schools result in a higher payout it might be possible. But that's a whole bunch of moving parts.

They will stay at 16 unless espn tells them to expand

(06-27-2022 12:26 AM)billybobby777 Wrote:  They will stay at 16 unless espn tells them to expand

That may well be true, since they can't expand without the support of their broadcasting partner(s).

Opinion as to whether or not they will expand beyond 16 seems to be ~55% or 60% no, 40% or 45% yes in the poll. One could imagine it going either way. It may depend on whether the network thinks it can generate enough additional revenue by adding more members, or not.

A related question (which may be discussed in multiple threads) is whether or not there will be a merger of conferences, or something similar, such as what happened when the SWC imploded and 4 SWC schools joined the Big 8, making it into the Big 12.

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(06-27-2022 12:42 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(06-27-2022 12:26 AM)billybobby777 Wrote:  They will stay at 16 unless espn tells them to expand

That may well be true, since they can't expand without the support of their broadcasting partner(s).

Opinion as to whether or not they will expand beyond 16 seems to be ~55% or 60% no, 40% or 45% yes in the poll. One could imagine it going either way. It may depend on whether the network thinks it can generate enough additional revenue by adding more members, or not.

A related question (which may be discussed in multiple threads) is whether or not there will be a merger of conferences, or something similar, such as what happened when the SWC imploded and 4 SWC schools joined the Big 8, making it into the Big 12.

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I think the B1G and SEC will take what they want. The PAC will expand/reload from the XII. The remaining ACC and XII schools will merge and add the best of the AAC.

(06-27-2022 12:42 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(06-27-2022 12:26 AM)billybobby777 Wrote:  They will stay at 16 unless espn tells them to expand

That may well be true, since they can't expand without the support of their broadcasting partner(s).

Opinion as to whether or not they will expand beyond 16 seems to be ~55% or 60% no, 40% or 45% yes in the poll. One could imagine it going either way. It may depend on whether the network thinks it can generate enough additional revenue by adding more members, or not.

A related question (which may be discussed in multiple threads) is whether or not there will be a merger of conferences, or something similar, such as what happened when the SWC imploded and 4 SWC schools joined the Big 8, making it into the Big 12.

.

(06-27-2022 02:07 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  I think the B1G and SEC will take what they want. The PAC will expand/reload from the XII.

The PAC might also expand/reload with some teams from the MWC. For example, they might want to add CSU and Utah State to provide travel partners for Colorado and Utah. San Diego State may have the best combination of market size and quality of FB/MBB programs of all the G5s. In addition, the PAC might find Hawaii a very attractive expansion option.

(06-27-2022 02:07 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  The remaining ACC and XII schools will merge and add the best of the AAC.

Sounds like a P4 with what could become a GARGANTUAN new (merged) ACC/XII unless 6 or more ACC/XII schools are poached by the other conferences.

Question: Which teams would you envision being in a future, merged ACC/XII (and which would be poached by the other conferences) ?

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(06-27-2022 02:32 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(06-27-2022 12:42 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(06-27-2022 12:26 AM)billybobby777 Wrote:  They will stay at 16 unless espn tells them to expand

That may well be true, since they can't expand without the support of their broadcasting partner(s).

Opinion as to whether or not they will expand beyond 16 seems to be ~55% or 60% no, 40% or 45% yes in the poll. One could imagine it going either way. It may depend on whether the network thinks it can generate enough additional revenue by adding more members, or not.

A related question (which may be discussed in multiple threads) is whether or not there will be a merger of conferences, or something similar, such as what happened when the SWC imploded and 4 SWC schools joined the Big 8, making it into the Big 12.

.

(06-27-2022 02:07 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  I think the B1G and SEC will take what they want. The PAC will expand/reload from the XII.

The PAC might also expand/reload with some teams from the MWC. For example, they might want to add CSU and Utah State to provide travel partners for Colorado and Utah. San Diego State may have the best combination of market size and quality of FB/MBB programs of all the G5s. In addition, the PAC might find Hawaii a very attractive expansion option.

(06-27-2022 02:07 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  The remaining ACC and XII schools will merge and add the best of the AAC.

Sounds like a P4 with what could become a GARGANTUAN new (merged) ACC/XII unless 6 or more ACC/XII schools are poached by the other conferences.

Question: Which teams would you envision being in a future, merged ACC/XII (and which would be poached by the other conferences) ?

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PAC 12 have been impressed that Boise State became a fast research instituion in a short period of time. They seemed to be interested in them, and the school is easy to access by plane, but in some case, bus ride from Washington State and Seattle.

I voted that the SEC won’t raid anyone. A ‘raid’ implies the conference will initiate action. In that sense they didn’t raid the B12 to take Texas and OU. These two institutions sought out the SEC, not the other way around. The SEC and any other conference would have been receptive to overtures from these two premier institutions.

Would the SEC listen to other schools? It’s hard to imagine any other combination of two schools tha would add anywhere close to the value that UT and OU bring, but as the landscape shifts who knows?

(06-27-2022 06:56 AM)OscarWildeCat Wrote:  I voted that the SEC won’t raid anyone. A ‘raid’ implies the conference will initiate action. In that sense they didn’t raid the B12 to take Texas and OU. These two institutions sought out the SEC, not the other way around. The SEC and any other conference would have been receptive to overtures from these two premier institutions.

Would the SEC listen to other schools? It’s hard to imagine any other combination of two schools tha would add anywhere close to the value that UT and OU bring, but as the landscape shifts who knows?

Well said:

"as the landscape shifts who knows?"

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There is an interesting paradox in the poll:

34 respondents expressed the view that the SEC won't expand beyond 16.

38 expressed the view that the SEC wlll "raid" another conference.

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(06-27-2022 02:37 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  PAC 12 have been impressed that Boise State became a fast research instituion in a short period of time. They seemed to be interested in them, and the school is easy to access by plane, but in some case, bus ride from Washington State and Seattle.

That bus ride from Boise to Seattle is 12 hours or so on a good day. Which I'm pretty sure indicates another 12 hours back after the game.

There'd be coaches, players and fans hitting the transfer portal after one road trip like that

(06-27-2022 09:35 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(06-27-2022 02:37 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  PAC 12 have been impressed that Boise State became a fast research instituion in a short period of time. They seemed to be interested in them, and the school is easy to access by plane, but in some case, bus ride from Washington State and Seattle.

That bus ride from Boise to Seattle is 12 hours or so on a good day. Which I'm pretty sure indicates another 12 hours back after the game.

There'd be coaches, players and fans hitting the transfer portal after one road trip like that

"...aw, man, who doesn't like an all-day BUS TRIP? Where's your sense of ADVENTURE? Hit the OPEN ROAD... blah, blah, blah?"

(...doubt if this is actual dialog from a movie, but it probably SHOULD be... )

...but seriously, BSU seems a no-brainer for the PAC, where EVERYBODY is a good bit apart from each other, well give or take a few couplets... I'd probably add SDSU with their honkin' new stadium, and set in at 14 for a bit.

(06-19-2022 08:59 PM)XOVERX Wrote:  

(06-19-2022 01:59 PM)XLance Wrote:  Things are going to get interesting. I read a couple of pages of the Surlyhorns thread, and what seemed to be the underlying theme......Texas fans aren't interested in just joining the SEC, they think they deserve to take it over. Fun times ahead.

Oh my goodness, XLance, you don't know the half of it. The SEC has no clue yet when it comes to Texas. They do not yet perceive our God-given entitlement and unparalleled arrogance.

In short, we at Texas are arrogant SOBs. I'm talking a level of arrogance that culminates in utter obnoxiousness. Alabama arrogance is cute and mint julep polite compared with the arrogance of mighty Texas.

Thing is, we at Texas are even more arrogant when we're down. So, just as the eyes of Texas are upon you, Texas arrogance is likewise and always upon you.

For example, we're plotting and planning right now as to the timing to move the SEC conference HQ to Houston. I mean, that's a happening thing, full stop. Then we'll move the SEC Championship game, yearly, to Dallas. Georgia Dome? How sweet. Uhhh, no. Horns Down? We love it when folks do the Horns Down - it strokes our unlimited ego - but hey, if we can also turn Horns Down into a 15 yard penalty, what fun! The SEC cannot escape Texas' Machiavellian machinations, you are so right! We are the devil incarnate.

We at Texas laugh in delight when the emotions of other fanbases turn hot. Texas basks in the hatred and the penumbra of disappointment that others feel because they are "not Texas." Because, well, Texas is the best. At everything. All the time. Even when we lose an athletics event. Just the facts. Texas' arrogance shines like the light from ten thousand suns, ripping apart the hearts of haters like the black hole at the center of the Milky Way rips apart entire solar systems.

Our SEC friends will soon learn, bless their collective, if inferior, hearts. Thank you for warning our SEC friends because they should be afraid. And they are. We're Texas.

LOL what??

No one is afraid of Texas or your fans. Keep thinking your cool man, your programs essentially begged us to save you. Fall in line and be a good little boy like you promised. I honestly hope Texas tries to show out, you'll learn quick you aren't and will never be the boss.

You're not dealing with a bunch of Texas schools that Texas politics allows you to control and a bunch of teams who rely on you to be the bread winner. In the SEC you're just another program.

(06-28-2022 12:28 AM)AubTiger16 Wrote:  

(06-19-2022 08:59 PM)XOVERX Wrote:  

(06-19-2022 01:59 PM)XLance Wrote:  Things are going to get interesting. I read a couple of pages of the Surlyhorns thread, and what seemed to be the underlying theme......Texas fans aren't interested in just joining the SEC, they think they deserve to take it over. Fun times ahead.

Oh my goodness, XLance, you don't know the half of it. The SEC has no clue yet when it comes to Texas. They do not yet perceive our God-given entitlement and unparalleled arrogance.

In short, we at Texas are arrogant SOBs. I'm talking a level of arrogance that culminates in utter obnoxiousness. Alabama arrogance is cute and mint julep polite compared with the arrogance of mighty Texas.

Thing is, we at Texas are even more arrogant when we're down. So, just as the eyes of Texas are upon you, Texas arrogance is likewise and always upon you.

For example, we're plotting and planning right now as to the timing to move the SEC conference HQ to Houston. I mean, that's a happening thing, full stop. Then we'll move the SEC Championship game, yearly, to Dallas. Georgia Dome? How sweet. Uhhh, no. Horns Down? We love it when folks do the Horns Down - it strokes our unlimited ego - but hey, if we can also turn Horns Down into a 15 yard penalty, what fun! The SEC cannot escape Texas' Machiavellian machinations, you are so right! We are the devil incarnate.

We at Texas laugh in delight when the emotions of other fanbases turn hot. Texas basks in the hatred and the penumbra of disappointment that others feel because they are "not Texas." Because, well, Texas is the best. At everything. All the time. Even when we lose an athletics event. Just the facts. Texas' arrogance shines like the light from ten thousand suns, ripping apart the hearts of haters like the black hole at the center of the Milky Way rips apart entire solar systems.

Our SEC friends will soon learn, bless their collective, if inferior, hearts. Thank you for warning our SEC friends because they should be afraid. And they are. We're Texas.

LOL what??

No one is afraid of Texas or your fans. Keep thinking your cool man, your programs essentially begged us to save you. Fall in line and be a good little boy like you promised. I honestly hope Texas tries to show out, you'll learn quick you aren't and will never be the boss.

You're not dealing with a bunch of Texas schools that Texas politics allows you to control and a bunch of teams who rely on you to be the bread winner. In the SEC you're just another program.

If his post was dripping with sarcasm, it was brilliant.

If he was serious, he needs to seek help.

(06-28-2022 06:35 PM)THUNDERStruck73 Wrote:  

(06-28-2022 12:28 AM)AubTiger16 Wrote:  

(06-19-2022 08:59 PM)XOVERX Wrote:  

(06-19-2022 01:59 PM)XLance Wrote:  Things are going to get interesting. I read a couple of pages of the Surlyhorns thread, and what seemed to be the underlying theme......Texas fans aren't interested in just joining the SEC, they think they deserve to take it over. Fun times ahead.

Oh my goodness, XLance, you don't know the half of it. The SEC has no clue yet when it comes to Texas. They do not yet perceive our God-given entitlement and unparalleled arrogance.

In short, we at Texas are arrogant SOBs. I'm talking a level of arrogance that culminates in utter obnoxiousness. Alabama arrogance is cute and mint julep polite compared with the arrogance of mighty Texas.

Thing is, we at Texas are even more arrogant when we're down. So, just as the eyes of Texas are upon you, Texas arrogance is likewise and always upon you.

For example, we're plotting and planning right now as to the timing to move the SEC conference HQ to Houston. I mean, that's a happening thing, full stop. Then we'll move the SEC Championship game, yearly, to Dallas. Georgia Dome? How sweet. Uhhh, no. Horns Down? We love it when folks do the Horns Down - it strokes our unlimited ego - but hey, if we can also turn Horns Down into a 15 yard penalty, what fun! The SEC cannot escape Texas' Machiavellian machinations, you are so right! We are the devil incarnate.

We at Texas laugh in delight when the emotions of other fanbases turn hot. Texas basks in the hatred and the penumbra of disappointment that others feel because they are "not Texas." Because, well, Texas is the best. At everything. All the time. Even when we lose an athletics event. Just the facts. Texas' arrogance shines like the light from ten thousand suns, ripping apart the hearts of haters like the black hole at the center of the Milky Way rips apart entire solar systems.

Our SEC friends will soon learn, bless their collective, if inferior, hearts. Thank you for warning our SEC friends because they should be afraid. And they are. We're Texas.

LOL what??

No one is afraid of Texas or your fans. Keep thinking your cool man, your programs essentially begged us to save you. Fall in line and be a good little boy like you promised. I honestly hope Texas tries to show out, you'll learn quick you aren't and will never be the boss.

You're not dealing with a bunch of Texas schools that Texas politics allows you to control and a bunch of teams who rely on you to be the bread winner. In the SEC you're just another program.

If his post was dripping with sarcasm, it was brilliant.

If he was serious, he needs to seek help.

It was his best Monty Python, "I taunteth at Thee!" It's tea sipper humor and he does do it well. But it won't be effective. Texas vs LSU will be Matthew McConaughey meets Bobby Boucher or put another way Sophisticates vs Cajun Knife Fight. However, the Horns will love the tailgate, best ever!