(04-12-2022 06:49 AM)Cnelson203 Wrote:  Past is not prologue…particular during a disastrous realignment round for the AAC. Yes, it’s still a fine league, but their continued recent dominance was NY6 was dependent on Cincinnati, UCF. With them gone, along with well performing Houston, I suspect we’ll see the NY6 access spread out a bit more. They’ll win their share, but only their share. The dominance is likely a thing of the past.

During the 8 CFP seasons, teams in the AAC going forward ranked highest among G5 teams 3 times: #17 Memphis in 2019, #20 Memphis in 2017 and #24 Navy in 2015).

Teams from the SBC and MWC ranked highest twice, and undefeated WMU from the MAC once.

Future dominance by any one G5 conference is unlikely.

(04-01-2022 07:19 AM)esayem Wrote:  My guess is probably not, but I think the ceilings at UNT and UAB are pretty high for the G5 level. I expect some classic battles between UAB-Memphis and SMU-UNT.

I think that UTSA also have a ton of upside. They are a young program and could become another UCF.

(04-02-2022 04:31 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(03-31-2022 06:39 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  It can't be understated that the AAC has much better exposure and recruiting geography than any other G5 conference. In essence, it's not really a fair fight. Being able to offer Texas and Florida athletes superior television exposure (and the ability to play often in front of their families) will keep allowing the AAC to edge the MWC/MAC/Belt/CUSA. The AAC also has the superior conference brand name from dominating that NY6 position for so long.

You can spin this any way you want, but the reality is that the SEC came out of this a Big Winner, and the Big 12, AAC and CUSA came out as losers. Any time the best schools are leaving the conference, you are losing the battle. The SBC came out of this as a stronger conference, and the MWC is stronger because they were untouched.

Among the G5 conferences, there is no dominant conference once Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF leave the AAC. Just being in Florida and Texas does not provide a recruiting advantage. First, the four-star and five-star talent will end up playing at power conference schools. Secondly, you still have to battle power conference schools for some of the three-star talent, as well as schools from the SBC, CUSA and other conferences around America. Schools like North Texas, Rice and FAU are not rolling in the talent. North Texas has had two players drafted into the NFL in the past 26 years. Rice has not had a player drafted since 2015 and their last first round pick came in 1980. FAU has never had a player drafted higher than the third round. These CUSA schools are not usually rolling in talent and just moving to the AAC will not fix that issue.

The MWC is recruiting California and the western region, with some recruiting in Texas. They are on Fox and CBS. They are not really going head-to-head against the AAC, and they did not lose their three best teams to the Big 12. They are not competing for recruits with the other four G5 conferences. The MWC would argue that they have a geographical advantage. I would argue that no one has the advantage these days among G5 conferences.

Well if that's the case you can list the Pac-12 and ACC as huge losers as well. A conference in the ACC's footprint just got stronger and the Pac-12 just fell further behind. I mean I don't know why the Big 12 is only being listed, these moves makes it much easier to poach the ACC when their contract starts to wind down and the Pac-12 is a mess.

(04-13-2022 10:49 AM)inutech Wrote:  

(04-13-2022 10:45 AM)Bobcats2011 Wrote:  I want to say it it the 4th biggest university in Texas. List goes A&M, UT, UH, then Tx State and UNT flip flop back and forth between 4 and 5, Tech comes in at 6 but has been rapidly growing and is fixing to pass us up if they haven’t already.

Texas State and UNT flip back and forth between 5 and 6 (with Texas Tech right behind).

You missed UTA at 4.

Ehhh, they don’t play football, I don’t count them…
Actually had forgotten how big they are, had to look it up… tech might even be ahead of Texas State now which is crazy because we had about 10k more students than Ttech when I was in school. Curious if they’re counting satellite campuses

(04-13-2022 10:28 AM)b2b Wrote:  

(04-13-2022 02:34 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(04-12-2022 09:57 AM)b2b Wrote:  The AAC west tiny enrollment #'s for SMU, Tulsa, Tulane and Rice just aren't that many fans to drive a TV deal. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out around 2030 but if I had to guess the TV $$$ is going to implode w/ this lineup.

It's worth noting that ESPN has been super supportive of the AAC's TV deal after restructuring.

My personal opinion is the AAC will be at 16 when their next TV deal comes up for negotiation. IMO, the AAC may have the 3 military academies all under the same umbrella by that time, as Army looks for positioning within the CFP-12 world. Air Force contacted the AAC for a spot last year before bowing to pressure from a triggered alum (who was worked up that the AAC had just been poached).

Either Buffalo or Air Force make a lot of sense to round out the AAC's membership.

That being said, the support the AAC has had from ESPN underscores Mike Aresco's prescient decision to secure the AAC's future with that 12-year billion dollar deal. He took criticism on the message boards for that and it turned out to be a veritable 'life vest' for the long term health of the conference.

While losing the 3 Big 12 teams will be a blow, the equity those teams put into the conference will remain via the contract, and it will be a wind in the sails of the new teams in the American for the next decade.

I strongly believe that the AAC will sustain its grip on the NY6 slot, which will keep it in good stead when the next negotiations come up a decade from now.

I can't take you seriously. You cant possibly believe the AAC will add Air Force and Army at this point.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

Air Force contacted the AAC, not the other way around.

Watch this video. (the importance of conference affiliation in the CFP-12 world can't be downplayed)

(04-12-2022 08:47 AM)b2b Wrote:  In theory we'll have more exposure. In reality I think there will be more TV interest in the Sunbelt (east especially) football games. The AAC is a hodgepodge of commuter school upstarts w/ little history, especially playing together. I can easily envision a future where the SBC becomes the dominant G5 conference after all the moves are made and settled in by the end of the AAC and SBC tv deals. In my opinion the SBC's long term goal has been adding ECU and probably UTSA. Just look at the map.

I looked at the map.

And that is the craziest theory I've ever heard.

There is a reason Marshall, ODU, USM, et al. didn't make the cut line.

(04-14-2022 01:53 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(04-12-2022 08:47 AM)b2b Wrote:  In theory we'll have more exposure. In reality I think there will be more TV interest in the Sunbelt (east especially) football games. The AAC is a hodgepodge of commuter school upstarts w/ little history, especially playing together. I can easily envision a future where the SBC becomes the dominant G5 conference after all the moves are made and settled in by the end of the AAC and SBC tv deals. In my opinion the SBC's long term goal has been adding ECU and probably UTSA. Just look at the map.

I looked at the map.

And that is the craziest theory I've ever heard.

There is a reason Marshall, ODU, USM, et al. didn't make the cut line.

The reason: Marshall and USM aren't in major metropolitan areas. Let's not sugarcoat anything. That's the only requirement you need to join the AAC. It has nothing to do with performance. Old Dominion was working with Marshall for years to be in a more regional conference. The AAC is not a regional conference.

I could start a new college football team in any major metropolitan area right now, and be in the AAC within 10 years of the first snap, without any real on-field success. I know I could do this, because it's been done: UNC Charlotte.

(04-14-2022 11:10 AM)Yosef181 Wrote:  

(04-14-2022 01:53 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(04-12-2022 08:47 AM)b2b Wrote:  In theory we'll have more exposure. In reality I think there will be more TV interest in the Sunbelt (east especially) football games. The AAC is a hodgepodge of commuter school upstarts w/ little history, especially playing together. I can easily envision a future where the SBC becomes the dominant G5 conference after all the moves are made and settled in by the end of the AAC and SBC tv deals. In my opinion the SBC's long term goal has been adding ECU and probably UTSA. Just look at the map.

I looked at the map.

And that is the craziest theory I've ever heard.

There is a reason Marshall, ODU, USM, et al. didn't make the cut line.

The reason: Marshall and USM aren't in major metropolitan areas. Let's not sugarcoat anything. That's the only requirement you need to join the AAC. It has nothing to do with performance. Old Dominion was working with Marshall for years to be in a more regional conference. The AAC is not a regional conference.

I could start a new college football team in any major metropolitan area right now, and be in the AAC within 10 years of the first snap, without any real on-field success. I know I could do this, because it's been done: UNC Charlotte.

By consensus within the industry, the AAC took the best properties (by far). This includes academics, where the AAC strives to stay in that top tier.
It's foolishness to say the Sunbelt somehow got schools that are going to surpass the AAC schools.

(04-14-2022 01:53 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(04-12-2022 08:47 AM)b2b Wrote:  In theory we'll have more exposure. In reality I think there will be more TV interest in the Sunbelt (east especially) football games. The AAC is a hodgepodge of commuter school upstarts w/ little history, especially playing together. I can easily envision a future where the SBC becomes the dominant G5 conference after all the moves are made and settled in by the end of the AAC and SBC tv deals. In my opinion the SBC's long term goal has been adding ECU and probably UTSA. Just look at the map.

I looked at the map.

And that is the craziest theory I've ever heard.

There is a reason Marshall, ODU, USM, et al. didn't make the cut line.

What's crazy about it? Are you trying to tell me that Rice, UNCC, UTSA, UNT, etc have some kind of football history to be proud of? USTA was good last year but are what.... 15 years old if that? There's literally nothing there with these adds. No fans, no history.

(04-14-2022 12:26 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(04-14-2022 11:10 AM)Yosef181 Wrote:  

(04-14-2022 01:53 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(04-12-2022 08:47 AM)b2b Wrote:  In theory we'll have more exposure. In reality I think there will be more TV interest in the Sunbelt (east especially) football games. The AAC is a hodgepodge of commuter school upstarts w/ little history, especially playing together. I can easily envision a future where the SBC becomes the dominant G5 conference after all the moves are made and settled in by the end of the AAC and SBC tv deals. In my opinion the SBC's long term goal has been adding ECU and probably UTSA. Just look at the map.

I looked at the map.

And that is the craziest theory I've ever heard.

There is a reason Marshall, ODU, USM, et al. didn't make the cut line.

The reason: Marshall and USM aren't in major metropolitan areas. Let's not sugarcoat anything. That's the only requirement you need to join the AAC. It has nothing to do with performance. Old Dominion was working with Marshall for years to be in a more regional conference. The AAC is not a regional conference.

I could start a new college football team in any major metropolitan area right now, and be in the AAC within 10 years of the first snap, without any real on-field success. I know I could do this, because it's been done: UNC Charlotte.

By consensus within the industry, the AAC took the best properties (by far). This includes academics, where the AAC strives to stay in that top tier.
It's foolishness to say the Sunbelt somehow got schools that are going to surpass the AAC schools.

"the industry" = one website apparently. Is that seriously trying to say that UNT is a better brand name than Marshall? The Marshall who literally has a movie about them and was dominant in FCS and then the MAC?

(04-13-2022 10:31 AM)b2b Wrote:  

(04-13-2022 09:18 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(04-12-2022 09:39 AM)b2b Wrote:  

(04-12-2022 08:56 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(04-12-2022 08:47 AM)b2b Wrote:  In theory we'll have more exposure. In reality I think there will be more TV interest in the Sunbelt (east especially) football games. The AAC is a hodgepodge of commuter school upstarts w/ little history, especially playing together. I can easily envision a future where the SBC becomes the dominant G5 conference after all the moves are made and settled in by the end of the AAC and SBC tv deals. In my opinion the SBC's long term goal has been adding ECU and probably UTSA. Just look at the map.

There is actually LOTS of history between the schools that will eventually be in the AAC. Most of the programs have shared leagues as variously members of the Missouri Valley, C-USA, SWC, Great Midwest and AAC. Lots of overlap. Memphis, for example, has share a conference in the past with future AAC members North Texas, Rice, UAB and Charlotte. Rice and SMU were members of C-USA and the SWC.

Despite its flaws, the future AAC schools, overall, have a shared history of playing each other.

I'm well aware of that but most of that history is not in football which drives the TV deals. The thread is about football (Access Bowl + G5 which doesn't apply to hoops). I should've been more clear I guess. Nobody gives a crap about Rice, UNCC, UNT, UTSA, etc. Yes there's some name recognition w/ Navy, Memphis (mostly b/c of hoops), SMU (mostly due to the death penalty) and ECU (mostly b/c of past competitiveness and fanbase in FB) but beyond that there isn't a whole lot to market, certainly not coming from the CUSA6.

When I compare the SBC and AAC I see the branding comparison as roughly a wash w/ the AAC getting a slight boost b/c of hoops.

Casual fans don't even know most of the Sun Belt is Division I, let alone FBS. Coastal Carolina, Georgia St. and South Alabama all have pretty new football programs. Appalachian is known as the I-AA school that beat Michigan. Louisiana has been around awhile but has changed its name so much, casual fans have no clue who they are. Marshall and Southern Miss are the only ones with any name recognition.

Well I guess the casual fan is even dumber than I thought as the top 25 is only FBS. That's all the casual fan pays any attention to. Coastal, App and Louisiana have all been in the top 25 recently. That's before adding the known brands of USM and Marshall.

That's a lot more than I can say about the garbage that just got crammed into the AAC. Yeah I guess Rice is known in the sense that they're known for a horrid athletic program.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

Once each in their history. Maybe Coastal has now been in 2 years?

(04-14-2022 11:10 AM)Yosef181 Wrote:  

(04-14-2022 01:53 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(04-12-2022 08:47 AM)b2b Wrote:  In theory we'll have more exposure. In reality I think there will be more TV interest in the Sunbelt (east especially) football games. The AAC is a hodgepodge of commuter school upstarts w/ little history, especially playing together. I can easily envision a future where the SBC becomes the dominant G5 conference after all the moves are made and settled in by the end of the AAC and SBC tv deals. In my opinion the SBC's long term goal has been adding ECU and probably UTSA. Just look at the map.

I looked at the map.

And that is the craziest theory I've ever heard.

There is a reason Marshall, ODU, USM, et al. didn't make the cut line.

The reason: Marshall and USM aren't in major metropolitan areas. Let's not sugarcoat anything. That's the only requirement you need to join the AAC. It has nothing to do with performance. Old Dominion was working with Marshall for years to be in a more regional conference. The AAC is not a regional conference.

I could start a new college football team in any major metropolitan area right now, and be in the AAC within 10 years of the first snap, without any real on-field success. I know I could do this, because it's been done: UNC Charlotte.

AND, Marshall and USM have relatively low budgets. Also very important.

ODU is in a big market and has a good sized budget, but has other issues.

(04-14-2022 12:44 PM)b2b Wrote:  

(04-14-2022 12:26 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(04-14-2022 11:10 AM)Yosef181 Wrote:  

(04-14-2022 01:53 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(04-12-2022 08:47 AM)b2b Wrote:  In theory we'll have more exposure. In reality I think there will be more TV interest in the Sunbelt (east especially) football games. The AAC is a hodgepodge of commuter school upstarts w/ little history, especially playing together. I can easily envision a future where the SBC becomes the dominant G5 conference after all the moves are made and settled in by the end of the AAC and SBC tv deals. In my opinion the SBC's long term goal has been adding ECU and probably UTSA. Just look at the map.

I looked at the map.

And that is the craziest theory I've ever heard.

There is a reason Marshall, ODU, USM, et al. didn't make the cut line.

The reason: Marshall and USM aren't in major metropolitan areas. Let's not sugarcoat anything. That's the only requirement you need to join the AAC. It has nothing to do with performance. Old Dominion was working with Marshall for years to be in a more regional conference. The AAC is not a regional conference.

I could start a new college football team in any major metropolitan area right now, and be in the AAC within 10 years of the first snap, without any real on-field success. I know I could do this, because it's been done: UNC Charlotte.

By consensus within the industry, the AAC took the best properties (by far). This includes academics, where the AAC strives to stay in that top tier.
It's foolishness to say the Sunbelt somehow got schools that are going to surpass the AAC schools.

"the industry" = one website apparently. Is that seriously trying to say that UNT is a better brand name than Marshall? The Marshall who literally has a movie about them and was dominant in FCS and then the MAC?

It was a quantitative study of those teams which polled dozens of current ADs and collegiate executives.

What more do you want?

"Dozens of sitting Athletic Directors or executive-level administrators who currently are or could soon be a Conference USA AD were invited to share feedback on each AD job in the league. The data was used to provide detailed insights about the potential for success at each school."

https://athleticdirectoru.com/articles/a...rence-usa/

(04-14-2022 12:52 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(04-14-2022 12:44 PM)b2b Wrote:  

(04-14-2022 12:26 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(04-14-2022 11:10 AM)Yosef181 Wrote:  

(04-14-2022 01:53 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  I looked at the map.

And that is the craziest theory I've ever heard.

There is a reason Marshall, ODU, USM, et al. didn't make the cut line.

The reason: Marshall and USM aren't in major metropolitan areas. Let's not sugarcoat anything. That's the only requirement you need to join the AAC. It has nothing to do with performance. Old Dominion was working with Marshall for years to be in a more regional conference. The AAC is not a regional conference.

I could start a new college football team in any major metropolitan area right now, and be in the AAC within 10 years of the first snap, without any real on-field success. I know I could do this, because it's been done: UNC Charlotte.

By consensus within the industry, the AAC took the best properties (by far). This includes academics, where the AAC strives to stay in that top tier.
It's foolishness to say the Sunbelt somehow got schools that are going to surpass the AAC schools.


(snip images)

"the industry" = one website apparently. Is that seriously trying to say that UNT is a better brand name than Marshall? The Marshall who literally has a movie about them and was dominant in FCS and then the MAC?

It was a quantitative study of those teams which polled dozens of current ADs and collegiate executives.

What more do you want?


https://athleticdirectoru.com/articles/a...rence-usa/

I agree that this is useful information, and thanks for providing it.

IMO, if the issue is what schools appear to be more overall-valuable to other conferences, the "best properties" than this is relevant information.

But regarding the original topic of the AAC maintaining dominance of the G5 Access spot, I am not as sure. School X can be a lot more valuable than school Y in an overall institutional sense, may be worth a lot more on the conference-realignment market, but Y may still be more likely to make an Access Bowl. For example, in the state of Tennessee, Memphis has proven more likely than Tennessee to make an Access Bowl in recent years, even though Tennessee is far more valuable as a conference member.

(04-14-2022 01:53 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(04-12-2022 08:47 AM)b2b Wrote:  In theory we'll have more exposure. In reality I think there will be more TV interest in the Sunbelt (east especially) football games. The AAC is a hodgepodge of commuter school upstarts w/ little history, especially playing together. I can easily envision a future where the SBC becomes the dominant G5 conference after all the moves are made and settled in by the end of the AAC and SBC tv deals. In my opinion the SBC's long term goal has been adding ECU and probably UTSA. Just look at the map.

I looked at the map.

And that is the craziest theory I've ever heard.

There is a reason Marshall, ODU, USM, et al. didn't make the cut line.

Interesting, when forced to choose, the elusive TBoy chooses the AAC over the Sun Belt.

So the logical team TBoy roots for is one of:

Temple (Temple Boy??)
ECU (Pirate fans don't hide, purple power!)
USF (wildcard, but I think he shows UCF love)
Memphis (see ECU)
Tulane (highly doubt it)
Tulsa (Tulsa Boy??)
SMU (highly doubt it)

Unlikely:

Navy (football-only)
Wichita State (no football)
UNCC
FAU
UAB
Rice
UNT
UTSA

Eliminated:

UConn
UCF
Cincinnati
Houston

(04-14-2022 12:44 PM)b2b Wrote:  

(04-14-2022 12:26 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(04-14-2022 11:10 AM)Yosef181 Wrote:  

(04-14-2022 01:53 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(04-12-2022 08:47 AM)b2b Wrote:  In theory we'll have more exposure. In reality I think there will be more TV interest in the Sunbelt (east especially) football games. The AAC is a hodgepodge of commuter school upstarts w/ little history, especially playing together. I can easily envision a future where the SBC becomes the dominant G5 conference after all the moves are made and settled in by the end of the AAC and SBC tv deals. In my opinion the SBC's long term goal has been adding ECU and probably UTSA. Just look at the map.

I looked at the map.

And that is the craziest theory I've ever heard.

There is a reason Marshall, ODU, USM, et al. didn't make the cut line.

The reason: Marshall and USM aren't in major metropolitan areas. Let's not sugarcoat anything. That's the only requirement you need to join the AAC. It has nothing to do with performance. Old Dominion was working with Marshall for years to be in a more regional conference. The AAC is not a regional conference.

I could start a new college football team in any major metropolitan area right now, and be in the AAC within 10 years of the first snap, without any real on-field success. I know I could do this, because it's been done: UNC Charlotte.

By consensus within the industry, the AAC took the best properties (by far). This includes academics, where the AAC strives to stay in that top tier.
It's foolishness to say the Sunbelt somehow got schools that are going to surpass the AAC schools.

"the industry" = one website apparently. Is that seriously trying to say that UNT is a better brand name than Marshall? The Marshall who literally has a movie about them and was dominant in FCS and then the MAC?

This graphic brought to you by Totally Not the University of North Texas Athletic Department.

I think UNT is solid, but the rankings on those charts are just awful. Off the top of my head UNT is not number 1 or 2 in Brand (USM, Marshall, Rice, UAB are all equal or better), FB Success (WKU, UAB, UTSA, and Marshall have all had more success more recently), MB Success (WKU, MTSU, ODU, UAB all better basketball programs), Non-revenue Success (WKU, MTSU, and Rice have more conference championships across all sports since 2014-15) or Power 5 potential (I think Rice and UTSA are more likely to go P5, UNT would have to surpass SMU first to have a chance).

(04-13-2022 05:23 PM)CatsClaw1 Wrote:  

(04-02-2022 04:31 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(03-31-2022 06:39 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  It can't be understated that the AAC has much better exposure and recruiting geography than any other G5 conference. In essence, it's not really a fair fight. Being able to offer Texas and Florida athletes superior television exposure (and the ability to play often in front of their families) will keep allowing the AAC to edge the MWC/MAC/Belt/CUSA. The AAC also has the superior conference brand name from dominating that NY6 position for so long.

You can spin this any way you want, but the reality is that the SEC came out of this a Big Winner, and the Big 12, AAC and CUSA came out as losers. Any time the best schools are leaving the conference, you are losing the battle. The SBC came out of this as a stronger conference, and the MWC is stronger because they were untouched.

Among the G5 conferences, there is no dominant conference once Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF leave the AAC. Just being in Florida and Texas does not provide a recruiting advantage. First, the four-star and five-star talent will end up playing at power conference schools. Secondly, you still have to battle power conference schools for some of the three-star talent, as well as schools from the SBC, CUSA and other conferences around America. Schools like North Texas, Rice and FAU are not rolling in the talent. North Texas has had two players drafted into the NFL in the past 26 years. Rice has not had a player drafted since 2015 and their last first round pick came in 1980. FAU has never had a player drafted higher than the third round. These CUSA schools are not usually rolling in talent and just moving to the AAC will not fix that issue.

The MWC is recruiting California and the western region, with some recruiting in Texas. They are on Fox and CBS. They are not really going head-to-head against the AAC, and they did not lose their three best teams to the Big 12. They are not competing for recruits with the other four G5 conferences. The MWC would argue that they have a geographical advantage. I would argue that no one has the advantage these days among G5 conferences.

Well if that's the case you can list the Pac-12 and ACC as huge losers as well. A conference in the ACC's footprint just got stronger and the Pac-12 just fell further behind. I mean I don't know why the Big 12 is only being listed, these moves makes it much easier to poach the ACC when their contract starts to wind down and the Pac-12 is a mess.

No, that is incorrect. The ACC and Pac-12 did not lose teams and therefore they are not affected. Whatever issues those conferences have, those issues did not change because of OU & UT moving to the Big 12. The ACC media deal with ESPN runs through 2035-2036, so they are over a decade away from dealing with any movement. The Pac-12 is in the process of cleaning up their past mistakes, so we will see where they land in two years with the new TV deal and their new distribution deal for their network.

(04-02-2022 04:31 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(03-31-2022 06:39 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  It can't be understated that the AAC has much better exposure and recruiting geography than any other G5 conference. In essence, it's not really a fair fight. Being able to offer Texas and Florida athletes superior television exposure (and the ability to play often in front of their families) will keep allowing the AAC to edge the MWC/MAC/Belt/CUSA. The AAC also has the superior conference brand name from dominating that NY6 position for so long.

You can spin this any way you want, but the reality is that the SEC came out of this a Big Winner, and the Big 12, AAC and CUSA came out as losers. Any time the best schools are leaving the conference, you are losing the battle. The SBC came out of this as a stronger conference, and the MWC is stronger because they were untouched.

Among the G5 conferences, there is no dominant conference once Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF leave the AAC.

There are people who adhere strongly to one of these two basic positions - - the AAC will remain dominant vs. it won't remain dominant.

There was a poll on this message board very recently (see link), and the respondents votes indicated they tend to expect that the conferences will be ranked as follows with respect to football in 2023-24: 1) MWC, 2) SBC, 3) AAC.

With respect to basketball, however, their responses indicated that they expect the basketball conferences to be ranked as follows in 2023-24: 1) AAC, 2) MWC, 3) CUSA/SBC/MAC.

https://csnbbs.com/thread-945499.html

The poll results suggest that the AAC may not be broadly dominant across the major sports, but that it might remain dominant in certain sports, such as basketball.

Another data-based approach is to compare average Massey Composite rankings of the AAC 2.0 teams. The the 2021-22 basketball rankings suggest that the AAC would fall behind the MWC, but would remain ahead of the other G5 conferences.

The 2022 Massey Composite football rankings, suggest that the MWC may have caught up with the AAC in football rankings, although it's possible that the MWC's rankings were just a flash in the pan.

............................Mean (Average Rank):
1. SEC............................40.52
2. B12............................41.34
3. B10............................42.77
4. ACC............................58.11
5. P12.............................68.02
6. MWC...........................68.70
7. AAC.............................68.92
8. FBS Independents.........74.60
9. SBC.............................83.44
10. CUSA.........................90.19
11. MAC..........................91.99

The MWC and AAC nearly ended up in a 3-way tie for 5th place with the PAC-12.

The AAC's average dropped to 84.60 when UC, UH, and UCF's rankings weren't included, which would be slightly lower than the SBC's average rank of 83.44.

Rankings of the "CUSA6:"
34. UTSA
50. UAB
97. UNT
102. FAU
110. Rice
112. Charlotte

CUSA6 Average Rank: 84.16

Average rank of 14 "AAC 2.0" schools: 84.41

"SBC 2.0" average rank (including Marshall, ODU, + So. Miss): 86.95

"SBC 2.0" average rank (including JMU (ranked #68 by Sagarin)): 85.6

https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2021-2/coll...ings-2021/

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So, if the 2023-24 Massey Composite rankings are broadly similar to the 2022 rankings, the top 3 G5 football conferences might be ranked 1) MWC, 2) AAC, 3) SBC in 2023-24, with the MWC fairly close behind the PAC-12, and with the AAC and SBC nearly tied for second place.

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(04-14-2022 07:09 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  (lots of snipping)

The 2022 Massey Composite football rankings, suggest that the MWC may have caught up with the AAC in football rankings, although it's possible that the MWC's rankings were just a flash in the pan.

FWIW, the MW has ranked ahead of the AAC in the MC in 3 of the 8 years of the CFP, including 2 of the last 4.

Of course, the past does not necessarily predict the future. But the MW has managed to best the AAC on multiple occasions, even when the AAC has had UCF, Cincy and Houston.

Because of the addition of the CUSA6, the good AAC games will be put on ESPN 8, the ocho and the rest will be put espn +.

Remember what Uncle Billybobby always says kids: espn plus is a minus.