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At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
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esayem Offline
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Post: #61
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(04-11-2022 11:52 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  
(04-01-2022 01:54 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  03-idea At the end of the day, the AAC will have more $$ and exposure, both matter. They will be able to dump an extra mil in to coaching staffs over all but MWC and an extra couple mil per year into facilities, while getting better TV slots than all the rest of the G5. It won't happen overnight, but that will push them to the top of the G5 again.
01-ncaabbs Just like last time when AAC was formed, and just like the difference between p5 and G5, Money matters, exposure matters, the AAC will have more of both. The G4 can have success, but will be shooting up hill.


Read this carefully.

[Image: Ei2NEWlWAAA2xwg?format=jpg&name=900x900]

^^^ In 2019-2020 (the year before Covid), the AAC ranked ahead of the ACC.

It's worth noting that when the AAC was formed, all of the teams were making LESS television money than the 6 AAC expansion teams will make year 1. Meanwhile, the incumbant AAC schools are still making the same money from the new billion dollar ESPN deal.

That matters.

I predict the 14-team AAC will rank ahead of the 14-team ACC AGAIN before this decade is over.

Even without the three Big 12 bellcows, the expanded 14-team AAC is picking up 4 more teams in Texas and Florida, who will be getting MORE money/exposure than the original AAC made on their first deal - AND they've all committed to spend more.

What it comes down to is geography. The expanded 14-team ACC shot themselves in the foot by adding the northern OBE basketball-centric schools. Competitively they've never recovered.

Meanwhile, Aresco smartly has never let basketball take the AAC hostage. He doubled down on programs in warm weather football hotbeds, even after getting poached. There is a reason that the AAC has dominated the NY6 spot.

[Image: Ei2NEWlWAAA2xwg?format=jpg&name=900x900]

"The AAC ranked ahead of the ACC in 2019-2020, and before the decade is over the new AAC will rank ahead of the ACC again."

So your bet is the 14-team AAC which doesn’t start until what, 2023, has seven years to be ranked higher than the ACC? Just in one season? You really should have said the Pac 12 or Big XII.

I predict not only will that NOT happen, but the Mountain West will rank ahead of the 14-team AAC at least one season and the Sun Belt will rank ahead at least two seasons!
04-12-2022 07:18 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #62
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(04-12-2022 07:18 AM)esayem Wrote:  
(04-11-2022 11:52 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  
(04-01-2022 01:54 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  03-idea At the end of the day, the AAC will have more $$ and exposure, both matter. They will be able to dump an extra mil in to coaching staffs over all but MWC and an extra couple mil per year into facilities, while getting better TV slots than all the rest of the G5. It won't happen overnight, but that will push them to the top of the G5 again.
01-ncaabbs Just like last time when AAC was formed, and just like the difference between p5 and G5, Money matters, exposure matters, the AAC will have more of both. The G4 can have success, but will be shooting up hill.


Read this carefully.

[Image: Ei2NEWlWAAA2xwg?format=jpg&name=900x900]

^^^ In 2019-2020 (the year before Covid), the AAC ranked ahead of the ACC.

It's worth noting that when the AAC was formed, all of the teams were making LESS television money than the 6 AAC expansion teams will make year 1. Meanwhile, the incumbant AAC schools are still making the same money from the new billion dollar ESPN deal.

That matters.

I predict the 14-team AAC will rank ahead of the 14-team ACC AGAIN before this decade is over.

Even without the three Big 12 bellcows, the expanded 14-team AAC is picking up 4 more teams in Texas and Florida, who will be getting MORE money/exposure than the original AAC made on their first deal - AND they've all committed to spend more.

What it comes down to is geography. The expanded 14-team ACC shot themselves in the foot by adding the northern OBE basketball-centric schools. Competitively they've never recovered.

Meanwhile, Aresco smartly has never let basketball take the AAC hostage. He doubled down on programs in warm weather football hotbeds, even after getting poached. There is a reason that the AAC has dominated the NY6 spot.

[Image: Ei2NEWlWAAA2xwg?format=jpg&name=900x900]

"The AAC ranked ahead of the ACC in 2019-2020, and before the decade is over the new AAC will rank ahead of the ACC again."

So your bet is the 14-team AAC which doesn’t start until what, 2023, has seven years to be ranked higher than the ACC? Just in one season? You really should have said the Pac 12 or Big XII.

I predict not only will that NOT happen, but the Mountain West will rank ahead of the 14-team AAC at least one season and the Sun Belt will rank ahead at least two seasons!

Since the MW ranked ahead of the AAC this season, a season in which the AAC put a team in the playoffs, that's no kind of prediction at all, LOL.

The MW has actually ranked ahead of the AAC in three of the eight seasons of the CFP, including two of the past four.

And the Sun Belt, while officially behind the AAC in 2020, probably ranked ahead of them that year too. It's hard to tell because the computers were messed up due to lack of data points, but just eyeballing it, the SBC appeared to have the best year in 2020.

So the current AAC, the AAC with UCF/Cincy/Houston, has only been the top G5 conference in 5 of the 8 seasons of the CFP, and probably only 4. Sure, that's more than anyone else, it has clearly been the best G5 conference during this time. But it has never dominated as the best G5 conference.

It has dominated the Access spot, getting that six of eight times, including the last five, but that has been because of superstar teams at the top not overall strength.

Schools that earned four of those six Access/CFP spots are now leaving, so that is more in question going forward.
(This post was last modified: 04-12-2022 07:36 AM by quo vadis.)
04-12-2022 07:36 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #63
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(04-11-2022 11:52 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  
(04-01-2022 01:54 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  03-idea At the end of the day, the AAC will have more $$ and exposure, both matter. They will be able to dump an extra mil in to coaching staffs over all but MWC and an extra couple mil per year into facilities, while getting better TV slots than all the rest of the G5. It won't happen overnight, but that will push them to the top of the G5 again.
01-ncaabbs Just like last time when AAC was formed, and just like the difference between p5 and G5, Money matters, exposure matters, the AAC will have more of both. The G4 can have success, but will be shooting up hill.


Read this carefully.

[Image: Ei2NEWlWAAA2xwg?format=jpg&name=900x900]

^^^ In 2019-2020 (the year before Covid), the AAC ranked ahead of the ACC.

It's worth noting that when the AAC was formed, all of the teams were making LESS television money than the 6 AAC expansion teams will make year 1. Meanwhile, the incumbant AAC schools are still making the same money from the new billion dollar ESPN deal.

That matters.

I predict the 14-team AAC will rank ahead of the 14-team ACC AGAIN before this decade is over.

Even without the three Big 12 bellcows, the expanded 14-team AAC is picking up 4 more teams in Texas and Florida, who will be getting MORE money/exposure than the original AAC made on their first deal - AND they've all committed to spend more.

What it comes down to is geography. The expanded 14-team ACC shot themselves in the foot by adding the northern OBE basketball-centric schools. Competitively they've never recovered.

Meanwhile, Aresco smartly has never let basketball take the AAC hostage. He doubled down on programs in warm weather football hotbeds, even after getting poached. There is a reason that the AAC has dominated the NY6 spot.

(snip image)

"The AAC ranked ahead of the ACC in 2019-2020, and before the decade is over the new AAC will rank ahead of the ACC again."


Well, the AAC has ranked behind the MW in three of the eight seasons of the CFP, including two of the last four. It probably should have ranked behind the SBC in 2020 as well, the AAC benefitted from poor computer inputs that masked that.

So I predict that in the coming years the AAC will rank behind another G5 conference a lot more frequently than it will rank ahead of the ACC.
04-12-2022 07:40 AM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #64
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
TroyBoy's obsession with the AAC is almost as odd as Uncle Dazzy's fixation on lists of tallest buildings in U.S. cities.
04-12-2022 08:13 AM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #65
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(04-12-2022 07:36 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(04-12-2022 07:18 AM)esayem Wrote:  
(04-11-2022 11:52 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  
(04-01-2022 01:54 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  03-idea At the end of the day, the AAC will have more $$ and exposure, both matter. They will be able to dump an extra mil in to coaching staffs over all but MWC and an extra couple mil per year into facilities, while getting better TV slots than all the rest of the G5. It won't happen overnight, but that will push them to the top of the G5 again.
01-ncaabbs Just like last time when AAC was formed, and just like the difference between p5 and G5, Money matters, exposure matters, the AAC will have more of both. The G4 can have success, but will be shooting up hill.


Read this carefully.

[Image: Ei2NEWlWAAA2xwg?format=jpg&name=900x900]

^^^ In 2019-2020 (the year before Covid), the AAC ranked ahead of the ACC.

It's worth noting that when the AAC was formed, all of the teams were making LESS television money than the 6 AAC expansion teams will make year 1. Meanwhile, the incumbant AAC schools are still making the same money from the new billion dollar ESPN deal.

That matters.

I predict the 14-team AAC will rank ahead of the 14-team ACC AGAIN before this decade is over.

Even without the three Big 12 bellcows, the expanded 14-team AAC is picking up 4 more teams in Texas and Florida, who will be getting MORE money/exposure than the original AAC made on their first deal - AND they've all committed to spend more.

What it comes down to is geography. The expanded 14-team ACC shot themselves in the foot by adding the northern OBE basketball-centric schools. Competitively they've never recovered.

Meanwhile, Aresco smartly has never let basketball take the AAC hostage. He doubled down on programs in warm weather football hotbeds, even after getting poached. There is a reason that the AAC has dominated the NY6 spot.

[Image: Ei2NEWlWAAA2xwg?format=jpg&name=900x900]

"The AAC ranked ahead of the ACC in 2019-2020, and before the decade is over the new AAC will rank ahead of the ACC again."

So your bet is the 14-team AAC which doesn’t start until what, 2023, has seven years to be ranked higher than the ACC? Just in one season? You really should have said the Pac 12 or Big XII.

I predict not only will that NOT happen, but the Mountain West will rank ahead of the 14-team AAC at least one season and the Sun Belt will rank ahead at least two seasons!

Since the MW ranked ahead of the AAC this season, a season in which the AAC put a team in the playoffs, that's no kind of prediction at all, LOL.

The MW has actually ranked ahead of the AAC in three of the eight seasons of the CFP, including two of the past four.

And the Sun Belt, while officially behind the AAC in 2020, probably ranked ahead of them that year too. It's hard to tell because the computers were messed up due to lack of data points, but just eyeballing it, the SBC appeared to have the best year in 2020.

So the current AAC, the AAC with UCF/Cincy/Houston, has only been the top G5 conference in 5 of the 8 seasons of the CFP, and probably only 4. Sure, that's more than anyone else, it has clearly been the best G5 conference during this time. But it has never dominated as the best G5 conference.

It has dominated the Access spot, getting that six of eight times, including the last five, but that has been because of superstar teams at the top not overall strength.

Schools that earned four of those six Access/CFP spots are now leaving, so that is more in question going forward.

More or less to add insult to injury when his prediction fails. He should worry about the wolves around him, not the ones on the other side of the valley.
04-12-2022 08:35 AM
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b2b Offline
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Post: #66
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(04-01-2022 01:54 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  03-idea At the end of the day, the AAC will have more $$ and exposure, both matter. They will be able to dump an extra mil in to coaching staffs over all but MWC and an extra couple mil per year into facilities, while getting better TV slots than all the rest of the G5. It won't happen overnight, but that will push them to the top of the G5 again.
01-ncaabbs Just like last time when AAC was formed, and just like the difference between p5 and G5, Money matters, exposure matters, the AAC will have more of both. The G4 can have success, but will be shooting up hill.

In theory we'll have more exposure. In reality I think there will be more TV interest in the Sunbelt (east especially) football games. The AAC is a hodgepodge of commuter school upstarts w/ little history, especially playing together. I can easily envision a future where the SBC becomes the dominant G5 conference after all the moves are made and settled in by the end of the AAC and SBC tv deals. In my opinion the SBC's long term goal has been adding ECU and probably UTSA. Just look at the map.
(This post was last modified: 04-12-2022 08:48 AM by b2b.)
04-12-2022 08:47 AM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #67
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(04-12-2022 08:47 AM)b2b Wrote:  
(04-01-2022 01:54 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  03-idea At the end of the day, the AAC will have more $$ and exposure, both matter. They will be able to dump an extra mil in to coaching staffs over all but MWC and an extra couple mil per year into facilities, while getting better TV slots than all the rest of the G5. It won't happen overnight, but that will push them to the top of the G5 again.
01-ncaabbs Just like last time when AAC was formed, and just like the difference between p5 and G5, Money matters, exposure matters, the AAC will have more of both. The G4 can have success, but will be shooting up hill.

In theory we'll have more exposure. In reality I think there will be more TV interest in the Sunbelt (east especially) football games. The AAC is a hodgepodge of commuter school upstarts w/ little history, especially playing together. I can easily envision a future where the SBC becomes the dominant G5 conference after all the moves are made and settled in by the end of the AAC and SBC tv deals. In my opinion the SBC's long term goal has been adding ECU and probably UTSA. Just look at the map.

There is actually LOTS of history between the schools that will eventually be in the AAC. Most of the programs have shared leagues as variously members of the Missouri Valley, C-USA, SWC, Great Midwest and AAC. Lots of overlap. Memphis, for example, has share a conference in the past with future AAC members North Texas, Rice, UAB and Charlotte. Rice and SMU were members of C-USA and the SWC.

Despite its flaws, the future AAC schools, overall, have a shared history of playing each other.
04-12-2022 08:56 AM
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b2b Offline
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Post: #68
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(04-12-2022 08:56 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(04-12-2022 08:47 AM)b2b Wrote:  
(04-01-2022 01:54 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  03-idea At the end of the day, the AAC will have more $$ and exposure, both matter. They will be able to dump an extra mil in to coaching staffs over all but MWC and an extra couple mil per year into facilities, while getting better TV slots than all the rest of the G5. It won't happen overnight, but that will push them to the top of the G5 again.
01-ncaabbs Just like last time when AAC was formed, and just like the difference between p5 and G5, Money matters, exposure matters, the AAC will have more of both. The G4 can have success, but will be shooting up hill.

In theory we'll have more exposure. In reality I think there will be more TV interest in the Sunbelt (east especially) football games. The AAC is a hodgepodge of commuter school upstarts w/ little history, especially playing together. I can easily envision a future where the SBC becomes the dominant G5 conference after all the moves are made and settled in by the end of the AAC and SBC tv deals. In my opinion the SBC's long term goal has been adding ECU and probably UTSA. Just look at the map.

There is actually LOTS of history between the schools that will eventually be in the AAC. Most of the programs have shared leagues as variously members of the Missouri Valley, C-USA, SWC, Great Midwest and AAC. Lots of overlap. Memphis, for example, has share a conference in the past with future AAC members North Texas, Rice, UAB and Charlotte. Rice and SMU were members of C-USA and the SWC.

Despite its flaws, the future AAC schools, overall, have a shared history of playing each other.

I'm well aware of that but most of that history is not in football which drives the TV deals. The thread is about football (Access Bowl + G5 which doesn't apply to hoops). I should've been more clear I guess. Nobody gives a crap about Rice, UNCC, UNT, UTSA, etc. Yes there's some name recognition w/ Navy, Memphis (mostly b/c of hoops), SMU (mostly due to the death penalty) and ECU (mostly b/c of past competitiveness and fanbase in FB) but beyond that there isn't a whole lot to market, certainly not coming from the CUSA6.

When I compare the SBC and AAC I see the branding comparison as roughly a wash w/ the AAC getting a slight boost b/c of hoops.
(This post was last modified: 04-12-2022 09:54 AM by b2b.)
04-12-2022 09:39 AM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #69
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(04-12-2022 08:47 AM)b2b Wrote:  
(04-01-2022 01:54 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  03-idea At the end of the day, the AAC will have more $$ and exposure, both matter. They will be able to dump an extra mil in to coaching staffs over all but MWC and an extra couple mil per year into facilities, while getting better TV slots than all the rest of the G5. It won't happen overnight, but that will push them to the top of the G5 again.
01-ncaabbs Just like last time when AAC was formed, and just like the difference between p5 and G5, Money matters, exposure matters, the AAC will have more of both. The G4 can have success, but will be shooting up hill.

In theory we'll have more exposure. In reality I think there will be more TV interest in the Sunbelt (east especially) football games. The AAC is a hodgepodge of commuter school upstarts w/ little history, especially playing together. I can easily envision a future where the SBC becomes the dominant G5 conference after all the moves are made and settled in by the end of the AAC and SBC tv deals. In my opinion the SBC's long term goal has been adding ECU and probably UTSA. Just look at the map.

I actually find the AAC West extremely intriguing. It only has one upstart commuter school in UTSA, while the rest of the division has over 600 years of history combined in Navy, Tulane, Rice, SMU, UNT, and Tulsa. This is a fantastic division and one I will be paying attention to as a fan of the sport. UTSA reminds me of Houston playing in the Astrodome; that’s about the only way I can romanticize their inclusion. Their basketball is vomit-inducing like if I were forced to eat from the Bill Dazzle vegan meal plan.

The East has upstarts in USF, FAU, UNCC, and UAB that started programs within the last 30 years or so. This collective has an old-school Sun Belt basketball flavor save FAU. See the above remarks regarding UTSA for my thoughts on the FAU basketball program. Even Mike Jarvis was doomed there!

Only Temple, ECU, and Memphis have long FBS history in the East. Although, Temple went almost 20 years off the major map from the 50’s to 70’s until Wayne Hardin.
(This post was last modified: 04-12-2022 09:53 AM by esayem.)
04-12-2022 09:51 AM
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b2b Offline
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Post: #70
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(04-12-2022 09:51 AM)esayem Wrote:  
(04-12-2022 08:47 AM)b2b Wrote:  
(04-01-2022 01:54 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  03-idea At the end of the day, the AAC will have more $$ and exposure, both matter. They will be able to dump an extra mil in to coaching staffs over all but MWC and an extra couple mil per year into facilities, while getting better TV slots than all the rest of the G5. It won't happen overnight, but that will push them to the top of the G5 again.
01-ncaabbs Just like last time when AAC was formed, and just like the difference between p5 and G5, Money matters, exposure matters, the AAC will have more of both. The G4 can have success, but will be shooting up hill.

In theory we'll have more exposure. In reality I think there will be more TV interest in the Sunbelt (east especially) football games. The AAC is a hodgepodge of commuter school upstarts w/ little history, especially playing together. I can easily envision a future where the SBC becomes the dominant G5 conference after all the moves are made and settled in by the end of the AAC and SBC tv deals. In my opinion the SBC's long term goal has been adding ECU and probably UTSA. Just look at the map.

I actually find the AAC West extremely intriguing. It only has one upstart commuter school in UTSA, while the rest of the division has over 600 years of history combined in Navy, Tulane, Rice, SMU, UNT, and Tulsa. This is a fantastic division and one I will be paying attention to as a fan of the sport. UTSA reminds me of Houston playing in the Astrodome; that’s about the only way I can romanticize their inclusion. Their basketball is vomit-inducing like if I were forced to eat from the Bill Dazzle vegan meal plan.

The East has upstarts in USF, FAU, UNCC, and UAB that started programs within the last 30 years or so. This collective has an old-school Sun Belt basketball flavor save FAU. See the above remarks regarding UTSA for my thoughts on the FAU basketball program. Even Mike Jarvis was doomed there!

Only Temple, ECU, and Memphis have long FBS history in the East. Although, Temple went almost 20 years off the major map from the 50’s to 70’s until Wayne Hardin.

I don't disagree on the AAC west but the problem there is the tiny enrollment #'s for SMU, Tulsa, Tulane and Rice. There just aren't that many fans to drive a TV deal. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out around 2030 but if I had to guess the TV $$$ is going to implode w/ this lineup.
04-12-2022 09:57 AM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #71
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(04-12-2022 09:51 AM)esayem Wrote:  
(04-12-2022 08:47 AM)b2b Wrote:  
(04-01-2022 01:54 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  03-idea At the end of the day, the AAC will have more $$ and exposure, both matter. They will be able to dump an extra mil in to coaching staffs over all but MWC and an extra couple mil per year into facilities, while getting better TV slots than all the rest of the G5. It won't happen overnight, but that will push them to the top of the G5 again.
01-ncaabbs Just like last time when AAC was formed, and just like the difference between p5 and G5, Money matters, exposure matters, the AAC will have more of both. The G4 can have success, but will be shooting up hill.

In theory we'll have more exposure. In reality I think there will be more TV interest in the Sunbelt (east especially) football games. The AAC is a hodgepodge of commuter school upstarts w/ little history, especially playing together. I can easily envision a future where the SBC becomes the dominant G5 conference after all the moves are made and settled in by the end of the AAC and SBC tv deals. In my opinion the SBC's long term goal has been adding ECU and probably UTSA. Just look at the map.

I actually find the AAC West extremely intriguing. It only has one upstart commuter school in UTSA, while the rest of the division has over 600 years of history combined in Navy, Tulane, Rice, SMU, UNT, and Tulsa. This is a fantastic division and one I will be paying attention to as a fan of the sport. UTSA reminds me of Houston playing in the Astrodome; that’s about the only way I can romanticize their inclusion. Their basketball is vomit-inducing like if I were forced to eat from the Bill Dazzle vegan meal plan.

The East has upstarts in USF, FAU, UNCC, and UAB that started programs within the last 30 years or so. This collective has an old-school Sun Belt basketball flavor save FAU. See the above remarks regarding UTSA for my thoughts on the FAU basketball program. Even Mike Jarvis was doomed there!

Only Temple, ECU, and Memphis have long FBS history in the East. Although, Temple went almost 20 years off the major map from the 50’s to 70’s until Wayne Hardin.

Rumors are swirling that the "Bill Dazzle Vegan Meal Plan" (BDVMP Inc. is the parent company) is about to be taken national via a television commercial campaign. It is unclear, however, if Uncle Dazzy himself will be the national spokesperson for the meal plan, as there are concerns from BDVMP officials that the good uncle's extreme eccentricities could be off-putting to many would-be users.
04-12-2022 11:35 AM
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Post: #72
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(04-12-2022 09:57 AM)b2b Wrote:  The AAC west tiny enrollment #'s for SMU, Tulsa, Tulane and Rice just aren't that many fans to drive a TV deal. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out around 2030 but if I had to guess the TV $$$ is going to implode w/ this lineup.


It's worth noting that ESPN has been super supportive of the AAC's TV deal after restructuring.

My personal opinion is the AAC will be at 16 when their next TV deal comes up for negotiation. IMO, the AAC may have the 3 military academies all under the same umbrella by that time, as Army looks for positioning within the CFP-12 world. Air Force contacted the AAC for a spot last year before bowing to pressure from a triggered alum (who was worked up that the AAC had just been poached).

Either Buffalo or Air Force make a lot of sense to round out the AAC's membership.

That being said, the support the AAC has had from ESPN underscores Mike Aresco's prescient decision to secure the AAC's future with that 12-year billion dollar deal. He took criticism on the message boards for that and it turned out to be a veritable 'life vest' for the long term health of the conference.

While losing the 3 Big 12 teams will be a blow, the equity those teams put into the conference will remain via the contract, and it will be a wind in the sails of the new teams in the American for the next decade.

I strongly believe that the AAC will sustain its grip on the NY6 slot, which will keep it in good stead when the next negotiations come up a decade from now.
(This post was last modified: 04-13-2022 02:40 AM by TroyTBoy.)
04-13-2022 02:34 AM
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Post: #73
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(04-12-2022 09:39 AM)b2b Wrote:  
(04-12-2022 08:56 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(04-12-2022 08:47 AM)b2b Wrote:  
(04-01-2022 01:54 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  03-idea At the end of the day, the AAC will have more $$ and exposure, both matter. They will be able to dump an extra mil in to coaching staffs over all but MWC and an extra couple mil per year into facilities, while getting better TV slots than all the rest of the G5. It won't happen overnight, but that will push them to the top of the G5 again.
01-ncaabbs Just like last time when AAC was formed, and just like the difference between p5 and G5, Money matters, exposure matters, the AAC will have more of both. The G4 can have success, but will be shooting up hill.

In theory we'll have more exposure. In reality I think there will be more TV interest in the Sunbelt (east especially) football games. The AAC is a hodgepodge of commuter school upstarts w/ little history, especially playing together. I can easily envision a future where the SBC becomes the dominant G5 conference after all the moves are made and settled in by the end of the AAC and SBC tv deals. In my opinion the SBC's long term goal has been adding ECU and probably UTSA. Just look at the map.

There is actually LOTS of history between the schools that will eventually be in the AAC. Most of the programs have shared leagues as variously members of the Missouri Valley, C-USA, SWC, Great Midwest and AAC. Lots of overlap. Memphis, for example, has share a conference in the past with future AAC members North Texas, Rice, UAB and Charlotte. Rice and SMU were members of C-USA and the SWC.

Despite its flaws, the future AAC schools, overall, have a shared history of playing each other.

I'm well aware of that but most of that history is not in football which drives the TV deals. The thread is about football (Access Bowl + G5 which doesn't apply to hoops). I should've been more clear I guess. Nobody gives a crap about Rice, UNCC, UNT, UTSA, etc. Yes there's some name recognition w/ Navy, Memphis (mostly b/c of hoops), SMU (mostly due to the death penalty) and ECU (mostly b/c of past competitiveness and fanbase in FB) but beyond that there isn't a whole lot to market, certainly not coming from the CUSA6.

When I compare the SBC and AAC I see the branding comparison as roughly a wash w/ the AAC getting a slight boost b/c of hoops.

Casual fans don't even know most of the Sun Belt is Division I, let alone FBS. Coastal Carolina, Georgia St. and South Alabama all have pretty new football programs. Appalachian is known as the I-AA school that beat Michigan. Louisiana has been around awhile but has changed its name so much, casual fans have no clue who they are. Marshall and Southern Miss are the only ones with any name recognition.
04-13-2022 09:18 AM
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Post: #74
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(04-12-2022 09:57 AM)b2b Wrote:  
(04-12-2022 09:51 AM)esayem Wrote:  
(04-12-2022 08:47 AM)b2b Wrote:  
(04-01-2022 01:54 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  03-idea At the end of the day, the AAC will have more $$ and exposure, both matter. They will be able to dump an extra mil in to coaching staffs over all but MWC and an extra couple mil per year into facilities, while getting better TV slots than all the rest of the G5. It won't happen overnight, but that will push them to the top of the G5 again.
01-ncaabbs Just like last time when AAC was formed, and just like the difference between p5 and G5, Money matters, exposure matters, the AAC will have more of both. The G4 can have success, but will be shooting up hill.

In theory we'll have more exposure. In reality I think there will be more TV interest in the Sunbelt (east especially) football games. The AAC is a hodgepodge of commuter school upstarts w/ little history, especially playing together. I can easily envision a future where the SBC becomes the dominant G5 conference after all the moves are made and settled in by the end of the AAC and SBC tv deals. In my opinion the SBC's long term goal has been adding ECU and probably UTSA. Just look at the map.

I actually find the AAC West extremely intriguing. It only has one upstart commuter school in UTSA, while the rest of the division has over 600 years of history combined in Navy, Tulane, Rice, SMU, UNT, and Tulsa. This is a fantastic division and one I will be paying attention to as a fan of the sport. UTSA reminds me of Houston playing in the Astrodome; that’s about the only way I can romanticize their inclusion. Their basketball is vomit-inducing like if I were forced to eat from the Bill Dazzle vegan meal plan.

The East has upstarts in USF, FAU, UNCC, and UAB that started programs within the last 30 years or so. This collective has an old-school Sun Belt basketball flavor save FAU. See the above remarks regarding UTSA for my thoughts on the FAU basketball program. Even Mike Jarvis was doomed there!

Only Temple, ECU, and Memphis have long FBS history in the East. Although, Temple went almost 20 years off the major map from the 50’s to 70’s until Wayne Hardin.

I don't disagree on the AAC west but the problem there is the tiny enrollment #'s for SMU, Tulsa, Tulane and Rice. There just aren't that many fans to drive a TV deal. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out around 2030 but if I had to guess the TV $$$ is going to implode w/ this lineup.

The Sun Belt has pretty small schools as well. Only Georgia St. and Texas St. are large schools.
04-13-2022 09:21 AM
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Post: #75
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(04-13-2022 09:21 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(04-12-2022 09:57 AM)b2b Wrote:  
(04-12-2022 09:51 AM)esayem Wrote:  
(04-12-2022 08:47 AM)b2b Wrote:  
(04-01-2022 01:54 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  03-idea At the end of the day, the AAC will have more $$ and exposure, both matter. They will be able to dump an extra mil in to coaching staffs over all but MWC and an extra couple mil per year into facilities, while getting better TV slots than all the rest of the G5. It won't happen overnight, but that will push them to the top of the G5 again.
01-ncaabbs Just like last time when AAC was formed, and just like the difference between p5 and G5, Money matters, exposure matters, the AAC will have more of both. The G4 can have success, but will be shooting up hill.

In theory we'll have more exposure. In reality I think there will be more TV interest in the Sunbelt (east especially) football games. The AAC is a hodgepodge of commuter school upstarts w/ little history, especially playing together. I can easily envision a future where the SBC becomes the dominant G5 conference after all the moves are made and settled in by the end of the AAC and SBC tv deals. In my opinion the SBC's long term goal has been adding ECU and probably UTSA. Just look at the map.

I actually find the AAC West extremely intriguing. It only has one upstart commuter school in UTSA, while the rest of the division has over 600 years of history combined in Navy, Tulane, Rice, SMU, UNT, and Tulsa. This is a fantastic division and one I will be paying attention to as a fan of the sport. UTSA reminds me of Houston playing in the Astrodome; that’s about the only way I can romanticize their inclusion. Their basketball is vomit-inducing like if I were forced to eat from the Bill Dazzle vegan meal plan.

The East has upstarts in USF, FAU, UNCC, and UAB that started programs within the last 30 years or so. This collective has an old-school Sun Belt basketball flavor save FAU. See the above remarks regarding UTSA for my thoughts on the FAU basketball program. Even Mike Jarvis was doomed there!

Only Temple, ECU, and Memphis have long FBS history in the East. Although, Temple went almost 20 years off the major map from the 50’s to 70’s until Wayne Hardin.

I don't disagree on the AAC west but the problem there is the tiny enrollment #'s for SMU, Tulsa, Tulane and Rice. There just aren't that many fans to drive a TV deal. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out around 2030 but if I had to guess the TV $$$ is going to implode w/ this lineup.

The Sun Belt has pretty small schools as well. Only Georgia St. and Texas St. are large schools.

Georgia Southern, ODU, JMU and App all have over 20K students. Those are pretty good sized schools IMO. The secret to the SBC is actually not having a bunch of huge universities in large metros. The focus has been on teams that actually capture the city/town they're in verses being and after thought. Georgia State is the one exception being in Atlanta, and they have the worst fan support of any school in the league. Well, the second worst as ULM has very little fan support these days.
04-13-2022 10:09 AM
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Post: #76
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(04-13-2022 02:34 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  
(04-12-2022 09:57 AM)b2b Wrote:  The AAC west tiny enrollment #'s for SMU, Tulsa, Tulane and Rice just aren't that many fans to drive a TV deal. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out around 2030 but if I had to guess the TV $$$ is going to implode w/ this lineup.


It's worth noting that ESPN has been super supportive of the AAC's TV deal after restructuring.

My personal opinion is the AAC will be at 16 when their next TV deal comes up for negotiation. IMO, the AAC may have the 3 military academies all under the same umbrella by that time, as Army looks for positioning within the CFP-12 world. Air Force contacted the AAC for a spot last year before bowing to pressure from a triggered alum (who was worked up that the AAC had just been poached).

Either Buffalo or Air Force make a lot of sense to round out the AAC's membership.

That being said, the support the AAC has had from ESPN underscores Mike Aresco's prescient decision to secure the AAC's future with that 12-year billion dollar deal. He took criticism on the message boards for that and it turned out to be a veritable 'life vest' for the long term health of the conference.

While losing the 3 Big 12 teams will be a blow, the equity those teams put into the conference will remain via the contract, and it will be a wind in the sails of the new teams in the American for the next decade.

I strongly believe that the AAC will sustain its grip on the NY6 slot, which will keep it in good stead when the next negotiations come up a decade from now.

I can't take you seriously. You cant possibly believe the AAC will add Air Force and Army at this point.

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04-13-2022 10:28 AM
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Post: #77
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(04-13-2022 09:18 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(04-12-2022 09:39 AM)b2b Wrote:  
(04-12-2022 08:56 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(04-12-2022 08:47 AM)b2b Wrote:  
(04-01-2022 01:54 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  03-idea At the end of the day, the AAC will have more $$ and exposure, both matter. They will be able to dump an extra mil in to coaching staffs over all but MWC and an extra couple mil per year into facilities, while getting better TV slots than all the rest of the G5. It won't happen overnight, but that will push them to the top of the G5 again.
01-ncaabbs Just like last time when AAC was formed, and just like the difference between p5 and G5, Money matters, exposure matters, the AAC will have more of both. The G4 can have success, but will be shooting up hill.

In theory we'll have more exposure. In reality I think there will be more TV interest in the Sunbelt (east especially) football games. The AAC is a hodgepodge of commuter school upstarts w/ little history, especially playing together. I can easily envision a future where the SBC becomes the dominant G5 conference after all the moves are made and settled in by the end of the AAC and SBC tv deals. In my opinion the SBC's long term goal has been adding ECU and probably UTSA. Just look at the map.

There is actually LOTS of history between the schools that will eventually be in the AAC. Most of the programs have shared leagues as variously members of the Missouri Valley, C-USA, SWC, Great Midwest and AAC. Lots of overlap. Memphis, for example, has share a conference in the past with future AAC members North Texas, Rice, UAB and Charlotte. Rice and SMU were members of C-USA and the SWC.

Despite its flaws, the future AAC schools, overall, have a shared history of playing each other.

I'm well aware of that but most of that history is not in football which drives the TV deals. The thread is about football (Access Bowl + G5 which doesn't apply to hoops). I should've been more clear I guess. Nobody gives a crap about Rice, UNCC, UNT, UTSA, etc. Yes there's some name recognition w/ Navy, Memphis (mostly b/c of hoops), SMU (mostly due to the death penalty) and ECU (mostly b/c of past competitiveness and fanbase in FB) but beyond that there isn't a whole lot to market, certainly not coming from the CUSA6.

When I compare the SBC and AAC I see the branding comparison as roughly a wash w/ the AAC getting a slight boost b/c of hoops.

Casual fans don't even know most of the Sun Belt is Division I, let alone FBS. Coastal Carolina, Georgia St. and South Alabama all have pretty new football programs. Appalachian is known as the I-AA school that beat Michigan. Louisiana has been around awhile but has changed its name so much, casual fans have no clue who they are. Marshall and Southern Miss are the only ones with any name recognition.
Well I guess the casual fan is even dumber than I thought as the top 25 is only FBS. That's all the casual fan pays any attention to. Coastal, App and Louisiana have all been in the top 25 recently. That's before adding the known brands of USM and Marshall.

That's a lot more than I can say about the garbage that just got crammed into the AAC. Yeah I guess Rice is known in the sense that they're known for a horrid athletic program.

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(This post was last modified: 04-13-2022 10:38 AM by b2b.)
04-13-2022 10:31 AM
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Post: #78
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(04-13-2022 09:21 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(04-12-2022 09:57 AM)b2b Wrote:  
(04-12-2022 09:51 AM)esayem Wrote:  
(04-12-2022 08:47 AM)b2b Wrote:  
(04-01-2022 01:54 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  03-idea At the end of the day, the AAC will have more $$ and exposure, both matter. They will be able to dump an extra mil in to coaching staffs over all but MWC and an extra couple mil per year into facilities, while getting better TV slots than all the rest of the G5. It won't happen overnight, but that will push them to the top of the G5 again.
01-ncaabbs Just like last time when AAC was formed, and just like the difference between p5 and G5, Money matters, exposure matters, the AAC will have more of both. The G4 can have success, but will be shooting up hill.

In theory we'll have more exposure. In reality I think there will be more TV interest in the Sunbelt (east especially) football games. The AAC is a hodgepodge of commuter school upstarts w/ little history, especially playing together. I can easily envision a future where the SBC becomes the dominant G5 conference after all the moves are made and settled in by the end of the AAC and SBC tv deals. In my opinion the SBC's long term goal has been adding ECU and probably UTSA. Just look at the map.

I actually find the AAC West extremely intriguing. It only has one upstart commuter school in UTSA, while the rest of the division has over 600 years of history combined in Navy, Tulane, Rice, SMU, UNT, and Tulsa. This is a fantastic division and one I will be paying attention to as a fan of the sport. UTSA reminds me of Houston playing in the Astrodome; that’s about the only way I can romanticize their inclusion. Their basketball is vomit-inducing like if I were forced to eat from the Bill Dazzle vegan meal plan.

The East has upstarts in USF, FAU, UNCC, and UAB that started programs within the last 30 years or so. This collective has an old-school Sun Belt basketball flavor save FAU. See the above remarks regarding UTSA for my thoughts on the FAU basketball program. Even Mike Jarvis was doomed there!

Only Temple, ECU, and Memphis have long FBS history in the East. Although, Temple went almost 20 years off the major map from the 50’s to 70’s until Wayne Hardin.

I don't disagree on the AAC west but the problem there is the tiny enrollment #'s for SMU, Tulsa, Tulane and Rice. There just aren't that many fans to drive a TV deal. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out around 2030 but if I had to guess the TV $$$ is going to implode w/ this lineup.

The Sun Belt has pretty small schools as well. Only Georgia St. and Texas St. are large schools.

Texas State with over 38K students and growing. Should be over 40k in the next few years. I want to say it it the 4th biggest university in Texas. List goes A&M, UT, UH, then Tx State and UNT flip flop back and forth between 4 and 5, Tech comes in at 6 but has been rapidly growing and is fixing to pass us up if they haven’t already.
04-13-2022 10:45 AM
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Post: #79
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(04-13-2022 10:45 AM)Bobcats2011 Wrote:  I want to say it it the 4th biggest university in Texas. List goes A&M, UT, UH, then Tx State and UNT flip flop back and forth between 4 and 5, Tech comes in at 6 but has been rapidly growing and is fixing to pass us up if they haven’t already.

Texas State and UNT flip back and forth between 5 and 6 (with Texas Tech right behind).

You missed UTA at 4.
04-13-2022 10:49 AM
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RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(04-13-2022 10:28 AM)b2b Wrote:  
(04-13-2022 02:34 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  
(04-12-2022 09:57 AM)b2b Wrote:  The AAC west tiny enrollment #'s for SMU, Tulsa, Tulane and Rice just aren't that many fans to drive a TV deal. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out around 2030 but if I had to guess the TV $$$ is going to implode w/ this lineup.


It's worth noting that ESPN has been super supportive of the AAC's TV deal after restructuring.

My personal opinion is the AAC will be at 16 when their next TV deal comes up for negotiation. IMO, the AAC may have the 3 military academies all under the same umbrella by that time, as Army looks for positioning within the CFP-12 world. Air Force contacted the AAC for a spot last year before bowing to pressure from a triggered alum (who was worked up that the AAC had just been poached).

Either Buffalo or Air Force make a lot of sense to round out the AAC's membership.

That being said, the support the AAC has had from ESPN underscores Mike Aresco's prescient decision to secure the AAC's future with that 12-year billion dollar deal. He took criticism on the message boards for that and it turned out to be a veritable 'life vest' for the long term health of the conference.

While losing the 3 Big 12 teams will be a blow, the equity those teams put into the conference will remain via the contract, and it will be a wind in the sails of the new teams in the American for the next decade.

I strongly believe that the AAC will sustain its grip on the NY6 slot, which will keep it in good stead when the next negotiations come up a decade from now.

I can't take you seriously. You cant possibly believe the AAC will add Air Force and Army at this point.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

Agreed. Given the politics and sentimentality involved with the service academies, and provided that some sort of concession can be made re: future CFP money, I think we're more likely to see Army, Navy, and Air Force go independent as a way for each of the three institutions to make the cut if/when there is an FBS split. The P5 schools will still need nonconference games and deeming those three as "worthy" of counting as a P5 OOC opponent, as the ACC did with BYU a few years ago, would be a win-win. I'm sure Air Force would be able to work out a deal to move its non-FB sports to the Summit, Big Sky, or WAC.
04-13-2022 11:13 AM
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