In CAA-only games, here's how JMU and UNCW stack up in the rankings on a per-game basis:

JMU

Scoring: 1st
Scoring Defense: 10th
FG %: 1st
FG % Defense: 8th
3-Pt %: 4th
3-Pt % Defense: 7th
Rebounding Margin: 10th
FT %: 2nd
Blocks: 10th
Steals: 1st
Assists: 2nd
Turnover Margin: 2nd
A/TO Ratio: 5th


UNCW

Scoring: 2nd
Scoring Defense: 4th
FG %: 8th
FG % Defense: 9th
3-Pt %: 3rd
3-Pt % Defense: 6th
Rebounding Margin: 3rd
FT %: 4th
Blocks: 5th
Steals: 6th
Assists: 9th
Turnover Margin: 3rd
A/TO Ratio: 3rd


It's interesting to me that we're so high in the scoring and defense ranks despite being relatively inefficient when it comes to shooting and our defensive rates. Obviously, the explanation for that is that we're able to generate extra shots via offensive boards and creating turnovers, while rebounding well and protecting the ball on our end.

But it would still be nice to see our efficiency improve. JMU presents an opportunity to get better in those categories given how bad they've been defensively.

Projected starters

PG Vado Morse (6-0 r-Jr.): 12.9 ppg, 2.4 apg, 1.6 spg, 1.7 rpg, .902 FT %
SG Charles Falden (6-3 Gr.): 10.9 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 1.4 apg, 1.1 spg, .455 3-Pt %
G Takal Molson (6-4 Gr.): 12.3 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 2.4 apg, 1.6 pg, .431 FG %
F Julien Wooden (6-8 r-So.): 8.3 ppg, 4.3 rpg,
F Justin Amadi (6-7 r-Fr.): 9.3 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 1.5 spg, 0.4 bpg, .647 FG %


Key Bench players

G Terell Strickland (6-0 r-Fr.): 5.3 ppg, 2.1 apg, 2.2 rpg, 1.1 spg, .557 FG %
F Alonzo Sule (6-7 Gr.): 8.4 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 0.4 bpg, 0.6 spg, .682 FG %
G/F Terrence Edwards (6-6 r-Fr.): 5.7 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 1.9 apg, 0.9 spg
G Jalen Hodge (6-1 r-Jr.): 5.3 ppg, 2.1 apg, 0.8 spg, .475 3-Pt %

JMU mirrors UNCW in many aspects. Guard heavy and relies on creating turnovers and steals. The differences are that they take far more threes and we are far better at rebounding on both offensive and defensive boards. UNCW doesn't defend well from three percentage wise, but we also don't allow many attempts. Neither team has a great defensive FG% and both teams get about 20ft attempts per game.

Conference only

Steals UNCW (5.7 #6) JMU (9.5 avg. #1)
3 pt. attempts UNCW(15.9), JMU (24.5)
3 pt attempts allowed UNCW (17 avg), JMU (33 avg)
Offensive reb UNCW (34.3 avg #4), JMU (28.3 last)
Reb margin UNCW +2(#3) JMU -7.5(last)
Pts. allowed UNCW (70.7 #3) JMU (83.5 last in the CAA)

Their three point threats:

Hodge 19-40
Faleden 30-66
Morse 30-96

Seems like a matchup that will produce another high scoring game.

JMU doesn't have the overall size or rim defenders to keep our guards out of the paint and they give up a lot of three's I see UNCW having their way on offense in the half court, and utilizing the kick out three for high percentage shots. Add to that our ability to hit the offensive board and this seems like a favorable matchup.

However, JMU did a good job pressuring W&M to create turnovers in their huge comeback and UNCW struggled against the late game pressure of CofC. I wouldn't be surprised to see JMU go full court press right out of the gate and get the crowd in the game. IMO, this will be the key to the game. If they press I think UNCW will struggle early and possibly get down 10+. The question will be if UNCW finds a way to beat the press and force JMU out of it. If we do, I think we close the deficit and go on for the win. If we don't, this could be one of our worst losses this season.

I think we figure it out and make them pay.

The REAL UNCW basketball team - 74
Wannabe UNCW team that hired an old UNCW player as coach -71

ESPN gives us a 10.1% chance of winning.

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Interestingly, Hodge only got 5 minutes of playing time against Elon. Not sure if that was a matchup-based decision or what. He also only played 7 minutes against W&M.

In addition, Sule, the team’s best rebounder, didn’t play at all due to COVID protocols. He also missed the W&M game. Not sure whether he’ll be back for Thursday night. I’ll have to check JMU’s board to see if there’s any info available.

(01-18-2022 10:51 PM)Proff Wrote:  ESPN gives us a 10.1% chance of winning.

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I wish you could get betting odds predicated on their algorithm. It's about as useful as "analysis" by Joe Linardi.

Getting a conference road win gave us a nice boost in Pomeroy, but KP still has us losing 76-68 at JMU, with a 25 percent chance of victory.

It's now predicting we'll finish 14-15 overall and 8-10 in the CAA, which would be good enough for seventh place -- a significant upgrade from the prediction just last week.

(01-19-2022 10:57 AM)ScribeHawk Wrote:  Getting a conference road win gave us a nice boost in Pomeroy, but KP still has us losing 76-68 at JMU, with a 25 percent chance of victory.

It's now predicting we'll finish 14-15 overall and 8-10 in the CAA, which would be good enough for seventh place -- a significant upgrade from the prediction just last week.

Interesting to see that they’re predicting we’ll finish conference play with a 5-10 record from here on out after starting 3-0.

I think Siddle has made some good changes that are clearly working, and we’re winning. The team seems very confident in their game right now, so going 5-10 from here on seems a stretch, considering we’re off to a strong start. We obviously have some tough games ahead of us.

My next prediction…

UNCW 74
JMU 81


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My next prediction…

UNCW 74
JMU 81


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
[/quote]

Nice work.... if it ain't broke, don't fix it

(01-19-2022 10:57 AM)ScribeHawk Wrote:  Getting a conference road win gave us a nice boost in Pomeroy, but KP still has us losing 76-68 at JMU, with a 25 percent chance of victory.

It's now predicting we'll finish 14-15 overall and 8-10 in the CAA, which would be good enough for seventh place -- a significant upgrade from the prediction just last week.

(01-19-2022 11:14 AM)B_Hawk06 Wrote:  Interesting to see that they’re predicting we’ll finish conference play with a 5-10 record from here on out after starting 3-0.

I think Siddle has made some good changes that are clearly working, and we’re winning. The team seems very confident in their game right now, so going 5-10 from here on seems a stretch, considering we’re off to a strong start. We obviously have some tough games ahead of us.

Even though those formulas give extra weight to recent performance, they still weigh in earlier season performance rather than throwing all that data out. Thus, an expectation of some "regression" is expected in those numbers.

I'm sure if only our last 6-7 games were in consideration, the data would put us at or near the top of the league.

(01-19-2022 03:22 PM)Seahawk Nation 08 Wrote:  

(01-19-2022 10:57 AM)ScribeHawk Wrote:  Getting a conference road win gave us a nice boost in Pomeroy, but KP still has us losing 76-68 at JMU, with a 25 percent chance of victory.

It's now predicting we'll finish 14-15 overall and 8-10 in the CAA, which would be good enough for seventh place -- a significant upgrade from the prediction just last week.

(01-19-2022 11:14 AM)B_Hawk06 Wrote:  Interesting to see that they’re predicting we’ll finish conference play with a 5-10 record from here on out after starting 3-0.

I think Siddle has made some good changes that are clearly working, and we’re winning. The team seems very confident in their game right now, so going 5-10 from here on seems a stretch, considering we’re off to a strong start. We obviously have some tough games ahead of us.

Even though those formulas give extra weight to recent performance, they still weigh in earlier season performance rather than throwing all that data out. Thus, an expectation of some "regression" is expected in those numbers.

I'm sure if only our last 6-7 games were in consideration, the data would put us at or near the top of the league.

This is where inside knowledge of the changes that have been made has value. If I were a betting man I could use these crappy analytics to makes some jack.

(01-19-2022 11:14 AM)B_Hawk06 Wrote:  

(01-19-2022 10:57 AM)ScribeHawk Wrote:  Getting a conference road win gave us a nice boost in Pomeroy, but KP still has us losing 76-68 at JMU, with a 25 percent chance of victory.

It's now predicting we'll finish 14-15 overall and 8-10 in the CAA, which would be good enough for seventh place -- a significant upgrade from the prediction just last week.

Interesting to see that they’re predicting we’ll finish conference play with a 5-10 record from here on out after starting 3-0.

I think Siddle has made some good changes that are clearly working, and we’re winning. The team seems very confident in their game right now, so going 5-10 from here on seems a stretch, considering we’re off to a strong start. We obviously have some tough games ahead of us.

In addition to the fact that predictions use the whole season, they get records by counting each game as a win or loss. Here's an example of how that matters. Let's say you have a 40 percent chance at winning three games and an 80 percent chance at winning one game. Adding the percents makes 200 percent, meaning 2-2. However, the predictions make it 1-3. The source doesn't necessarily think that going 5-10 in the rest of your games is the average outcome. It just means that you have a greater than 50 percent chance at winning 5 games.

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2...l-Athletic predicts you to go 9-9, so that's one game better than KenPom. They have a top group of Hofstra, Towson, JMU, and Delaware; a middle group of Drexel, Charleston, and you; and a bottom group of Northeastern, W&M, and Elon.

http://sevenovertimes.com/playerrankings...eason=2022 says Sims is 108th in Win Probability Added, and there are 358 teams.

Just saw the following post on JMU's board:

(01-19-2022 09:23 AM)PolishFalconDuke Wrote:  Get Coach Wainwright on the phone. Byington needs a refresher on team defense.

lol.

We are 7.5 point dogs. Over/under is 143.5.

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(01-19-2022 07:40 PM)Proff Wrote:  We are 7.5 point dogs. Over/under is 143.5.

I know JMU has been very strong at home all year. They're 5-1 in D-I games in their shiny new arena, including that big win against UVA. But UNCW covering and the over seems like easy money, as I don't expect either of these teams to be held under 70 (and JMU holding us under 70 would be a requirement if both the spread AND O/U were to end up spot-on).

I mean for pete's sake, they've allowed 90+ points in back to back contests against W&M and Elon. And they allowed 87 in their only home loss against Hofstra, just 10 days ago. I can't imagine they've "solved" their defense in time to face us. That O/U seems entirely too low....

But then that's why I don't gamble on games. It always seems all too easy until its not.

A snippet of the "preview" from JMU poster Hart Foundation. Never change, JMU fans. lmao.

(01-19-2022 08:55 PM)Hart Foundation Wrote:  UNCW has looked poor in the games I’ve watched, especially on the offensive end. They can’t shoot a lick and they don’t have any bigs to worry about. Perfect recipe for JMU’s defense.


Even if Sule doesn’t return the Dukes roll.

JMU 75
UNCW 64

Hope the Hawks continue and get their 7 th straight!

Hawks 76
Dukes 74.

Final Net Ranking heading into tonight's game

UNCW - 248 (8th in the CAA)
JMU - 173 (6th in the CAA)

We dropped 10 slots since Tuesday morning and fell behind Northeastern

JMU is up 7 slots

(01-20-2022 10:39 AM)solohawks Wrote:  Final Net Ranking heading into tonight's game

UNCW - 248 (8th in the CAA)
JMU - 173 (6th in the CAA)

We dropped 10 slots since Tuesday morning and fell behind Northeastern

JMU is up 7 slots

These numbers are always interesting, but I’m curious why they even matter to us. We (and the rest of the conference) are not in a position to get an at large at season’s end. The only number that matters to us is conference standing (for CAAT seeding).

Just curious as to what others are thinking on this?


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(01-20-2022 11:01 AM)B_Hawk06 Wrote:  

(01-20-2022 10:39 AM)solohawks Wrote:  Final Net Ranking heading into tonight's game

UNCW - 248 (8th in the CAA)
JMU - 173 (6th in the CAA)

We dropped 10 slots since Tuesday morning and fell behind Northeastern

JMU is up 7 slots

These numbers are always interesting, but I’m curious why they even matter to us. We (and the rest of the conference) are not in a position to get an at large at season’s end. The only number that matters to us is conference standing (for CAAT seeding).

Just curious as to what others are thinking on this?


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I'm with you. Don't give much of a crap about them. If you are fighting for an at large, then those things all matter substantially more.