Would be interesting to see the B12 w/o OU and Texas.

AAC likely much closer to MWC than the PAC12 once the dust settles.

How much of Houston/UCF/CU being towards the top is by them getting the national time slots vs the regional time slots? A true comparison would have to weight it by actual TV exposure.

(12-15-2021 11:10 AM)Vonz90 Wrote:  How much of Houston/UCF/CU being towards the top is by them getting the national time slots vs the regional time slots? A true comparison would have to weight it by actual TV exposure.

I'm not actually sure what you're saying. It's all ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, nothing "regional." I don't think we even had any of the ABC-ESPN2 reverse mirror deals this year.

As I was saying though, the top performing teams get the top slots -- ABC instead of ESPN, ESPN instead of ESPN2, ESPN2 instead of ESPNU. Cincinnati for the last few years, Memphis before that, UCF before that. None of those leaving are like UT/OU in terms of consistent brand consistently drawing above and beyond others. When those three leave...someone else will be the top two teams in the AAC. And will be in the mix for NY6 or a 5+1+6/6+6 CFP, and will have an advantage in buzz and exposure over Sun Belt or mwc or MAC or CUSA.

Are you saying compare timeslot for timeslot? Dividing up Thursday-Friday-SatNoon-Sat3:30-Sat19:30 (and honestly at least a couple of the Thurs/Fri are FURTHER separable with 2100ET kicks), and then dividing those up by multiple networks...in most cases, you end up talking about eaches. Some true comps, but still a small sample.

(12-15-2021 09:32 AM)Saint3333 Wrote:  Would be interesting to see the B12 w/o OU and Texas.

AAC likely much closer to MWC than the PAC12 once the dust settles.

First part - I ran this for '18-'20 here: https://csnbbs.com/thread-926002-post-17...id17528676
Using the same methodology...kept Bedlam AT Ok.State...CCG a respectable 8 million with neither OU nor UT...

2021 B12 viewers w/out OU/UT:
Total: 44,087,000 - 43.96% of viewers with OU/UT
Conf.Controlled: 40,011,000 - 44.30% of viewers with OU/UT
Intra-conference: 33,669,000 - 43.79% of viewers with OU/UT

For the second point...honest question: did you read post #20 and this is you trying to refute it but offering no reasoning/analysis? or did you just not read the thread before typing that and hitting "post"?

(12-15-2021 12:41 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(12-15-2021 09:32 AM)Saint3333 Wrote:  Would be interesting to see the B12 w/o OU and Texas.

AAC likely much closer to MWC than the PAC12 once the dust settles.

First part - I ran this for '18-'20 here: https://csnbbs.com/thread-926002-post-17...id17528676
Using the same methodology...kept Bedlam AT Ok.State...CCG a respectable 8 million with neither OU nor UT...

2021 B12 viewers w/out OU/UT:
Total: 44,087,000 - 43.96% of viewers with OU/UT
Conf.Controlled: 40,011,000 - 44.30% of viewers with OU/UT
Intra-conference: 33,669,000 - 43.79% of viewers with OU/UT

For the second point...honest question: did you read post #20 and this is you trying to refute it but offering no reasoning/analysis? or did you just not read the thread before typing that and hitting "post"?

Thanks for the data, I enjoy the fact based analysis +REP.

On the second item. My response of the AAC being closer to the MWC vs. the PAC12 doesn't contradict what post 20 stated. It simply predicts a deeper decrease in AAC viewership from your prediction.

I believe you're overestimating that viewers of prior AAC championships and meaningful mid-season game will continue to do so. Fans of the larger fanbases (UCF, Cincy, Houston) aren't as likely to tune in if the outcome doesn't have a direct impact to them. Perhaps with time the fanbases of the addition can compensate, but in the short-term there will be a decline.

On a similar note Texas fans aren't tuning in at the same rate to the BIG12 games going forward.

BIG12 and AAC declines with the latest round. Not enough to drop a full spot, but the gap will shrink, or in the BIG12's case increase from the other "P5s". We could be witnessing a movement to a P2 with those two doubling the 3rd highest.

(12-15-2021 12:28 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(12-15-2021 11:10 AM)Vonz90 Wrote:  How much of Houston/UCF/CU being towards the top is by them getting the national time slots vs the regional time slots? A true comparison would have to weight it by actual TV exposure.

I'm not actually sure what you're saying. It's all ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, nothing "regional." I don't think we even had any of the ABC-ESPN2 reverse mirror deals this year.

As I was saying though, the top performing teams get the top slots -- ABC instead of ESPN, ESPN instead of ESPN2, ESPN2 instead of ESPNU. Cincinnati for the last few years, Memphis before that, UCF before that. None of those leaving are like UT/OU in terms of consistent brand consistently drawing above and beyond others. When those three leave...someone else will be the top two teams in the AAC. And will be in the mix for NY6 or a 5+1+6/6+6 CFP, and will have an advantage in buzz and exposure over Sun Belt or mwc or MAC or CUSA.

Are you saying compare timeslot for timeslot? Dividing up Thursday-Friday-SatNoon-Sat3:30-Sat19:30 (and honestly at least a couple of the Thurs/Fri are FURTHER separable with 2100ET kicks), and then dividing those up by multiple networks...in most cases, you end up talking about eaches. Some true comps, but still a small sample.

Maybe my wording is not using the most up to date jargon, no doubt you are more up on it than I. But time slot to time slot and network to network would be the applicable comparison. Per your point, a time slot on ESPNU is technically a national game, but with nowhere near the potential number of eyes as a broadcast network game, etc.

(12-15-2021 01:11 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  

(12-15-2021 12:41 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(12-15-2021 09:32 AM)Saint3333 Wrote:  Would be interesting to see the B12 w/o OU and Texas.

AAC likely much closer to MWC than the PAC12 once the dust settles.

First part - I ran this for '18-'20 here: https://csnbbs.com/thread-926002-post-17...id17528676
Using the same methodology...kept Bedlam AT Ok.State...CCG a respectable 8 million with neither OU nor UT...

2021 B12 viewers w/out OU/UT:
Total: 44,087,000 - 43.96% of viewers with OU/UT
Conf.Controlled: 40,011,000 - 44.30% of viewers with OU/UT
Intra-conference: 33,669,000 - 43.79% of viewers with OU/UT

For the second point...honest question: did you read post #20 and this is you trying to refute it but offering no reasoning/analysis? or did you just not read the thread before typing that and hitting "post"?

Thanks for the data, I enjoy the fact based analysis +REP.

On the second item. My response of the AAC being closer to the MWC vs. the PAC12 doesn't contradict what post 20 stated. It simply predicts a deeper decrease in AAC viewership from your prediction.

I believe you're overestimating that viewers of prior AAC championships and meaningful mid-season game will continue to do so. Fans of the larger fanbases (UCF, Cincy, Houston) aren't as likely to tune in if the outcome doesn't have a direct impact to them. Perhaps with time the fanbases of the addition can compensate, but in the short-term there will be a decline.

On a similar note Texas fans aren't tuning in at the same rate to the BIG12 games going forward.

BIG12 and AAC declines with the latest round. Not enough to drop a full spot, but the gap will shrink, or in the BIG12's case increase from the other "P5s". We could be witnessing a movement to a P2 with those two doubling the 3rd highest.

I think your starting point is wrong.
Those aren't THE three biggest fanbases, just three of the top five. No one at ECU or SMU is depending on Cincinnati Bearcat fans for their numbers -- if they win (and get the better TV timeslots), the dropoff will be minimal.
Doing those numbers with TOTAL viewers, not conference-controlled, might be a better way of guessing at overall brand, or reach, or identity. In Total Viewers, Navy jumps up to the top because you get Army-Navy and Navy-NotreDame.
We don't NEED the six additions to do much at all - at least not at the outset. If the two rocking CUSA this year keep up their profile, we'll be just fine. Four of the additions CAN be ESPN+ fodder.
In attendance, Cincinnati and UCF may be at the top, but Houston makes that discussion not even "three of the top five." 2021, 11-2, CFP ranking and NY6 conversation...and Houston is #7 in AAC attendance (yes, UH fans, even if I credit you the neutral site game, your average increases but still sitting at #7).

These are not juggernaut brands unmatched in the current AAC. I will miss all three, and two have had pretty consistent TV and attendance numbers (but you only have to look back to 2017 or 2015 and those two....weren't).
The AAC CCG gets viewership because there hasn't been a year it did not have bearing on the NY6. Look at 2016, the example of a CCG with two teams of the remaining eight, Temple-Navy - over two million viewers. Fewer than this year, or several others...but more than 2020 when Cincinnati had CFP conversation, not NY6, CFP.

The AAC will slip. A little. But certainly won't be overtaken by leagues with midnight FS1 games, or only 15 linear games, or Tuesday/Wednesday night action.

In case Rileylives or others return...
There was a discussion of AAC vs Sun Belt average per rated game on the ESPN networks. That thread got moved to smack talk. At some point we were all nodding that it would be better discussed at the end of the season.

I think I got all these up to date. Somewhat shortened from the earlier discussion.

ESPN:
ALL GAMES:
AAC 10,307,000 viewers over twelve games for 858,917 viewers per rated game
SBC 2,772,000 viewers over four games for 693,000 viewers per rated game
CONFERENCE-CONTROLLED INVENTORY:
AAC 6,745,000 viewers over ten games for 674,500 viewers per rated game
SBC 2,772,000 viewers over four games for 693,000 viewers per rated game
INTRA-CONFERENCE GAMES:
AAC 5,073,000 viewers over eight games for 634,125 viewers per rated game
SBC 1,060,000 viewers over two games for 530,000 viewers per rated game

ESPN2:
ALL GAMES:
AAC 7,668,000 over thirteen games for 589,846 viewers per rated game
SBC 3,704,000 over six games for 617,333 viewers per rated game
CONFERENCE CONTROLLED GAMES:
AAC 7,177,000 over twelve games for 598,083 viewers per rated game
SBC 2,821,000 over four games for 705,250 viewers per rated game
INTRA-CONFERENCE GAMES:
AAC 5,841,000 over nine games for 649,000 viewers per rated game
SBC 1,522,000 over three games for 507,333 viewers per rated game

And I will also re-up the discussion points from my post in that thread --

A first note - these don't get truly down to apples and apples by day and timeslot. And if you drill down that far, if you even have something to compare on both sides of the ledger, you have a lot of n=1.
It also isn't matching up top games vs top games to get to the averages. That is, for conference controlled inventory, the AAC's top games are OTA. The Sun Belt's ESPN games are nominally their top 4...but are here being compared to the AAC's seventh- through sixteenth-best games. And then ESPN2 is comparing the Sun Belt fifth through eighth best games against seventeenth through twenty-eighth best games: literally, the middle of the road AAC games.
Now before anyone says "Oh, you're making excuses," that actually reflects the conversations on this AAC board going back four to five years. At that time it was comparing AAC averages when like 25 of our games were televised and rated to 40+ games televised and rated for the Big12. Of course having games that are #26-45 pulls down the overall average. The counterpoint being that OUR games #26-45 aren't ALL zero...but yes, the Big12's #26-45 pulled their Top 25 down to our Top 25, and our #26-45 would have pulled our average below what we were sporting with fewer games. Again, those are five-year-old conversations on this board.

And even at the end of the season, we're averaging two to four games in some of these network bins. That's a pretty small sample size. Even without breaking down networks into timeslots, that's a pretty small sample size.

I look forward to revisiting this subject in two years. One of us will be surprised.

As always, slhNavy91 brings the goods to AAC table… slhNavy91 should be AAC’s next Moderator.

(12-15-2021 09:52 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  I look forward to revisiting this subject in two years. One of us will be surprised.

I'll be here, inshallah.
Look forward to seeing how the prognostications hold up. I would like to think that I have a reputation on here for standing up to past statements and admitting misses.

One more post here to add to historical threads.

This is a thing I've tracked for several years, the number of games by non-contract-bowl-conference with 3, 2, and 1 million viewers. Kind of got trumped by the very good article this year on the "4 Million Club." But this is what I have compiled since around 2017:

2015-2021 Big Viewer Games BEFORE 2021 bowls
'15-'21 total games over 3 million viewers: AAC 36, mwc 4, MAC 4
'15-'21 total games over 2 million viewers: AAC 69, CUSA 10, MAC 13, mwc 16, SBC 5
'15-'21 total games over 1 million viewers: AAC 133, CUSA 44, MAC 37, mwc 55, SBC 19

'15-'21 non-bowl games over 3 million viewers: AAC 26, MAC 2
'15-'21 non-bowl games over 2 million viewers: AAC 48, CUSA 4, MAC 2, mwc 6, SBC 1
'15-'21 non-bowl games over 1 million viewers:AAC 96, CUSA 13, MAC 14, mwc 27, SBC 12

'15-'21 conference controlled games over 3 million viewers: AAC 12, G4s 0
'15-'21 conference controlled games over 2 million viewers: AAC 27, mwc 1
'15-'21 conference controlled games over 1 million viewers:AAC 62, CUSA 2, MAC 2, mwc 9, SBC 5

'15-'21 intra-conference games over 3 million viewers: AAC 8, G4s 0
'15-'21 intra-conference games over 2 million viewers: AAC 16, G4s 0
'15-'20 intra-conference games over 1 million viewers: AAC 29, MAC 2 (CCGs), mwc 6 (4 reg season, 2 CCG), SBC 1 (reg)

2021 Big Viewer Games
2021 non-bowl games
Greater than three million viewers: AAC 3
Greater than two million viewers: AAC 5, SBC 1, mwc 1
Greater than one million viewers: AAC 14, SBC 3, mwc 4, CUSA 3, MAC 2

2021 conference-controlled games
Greater than three million viewers: AAC 1
Greater than two million viewers: AAC 2
Greater than one million viewers: AAC 8, SBC 2, mwc 1

2021 intra-conference games
Greater than three million viewers: AAC 1
Greater than two million viewers: AAC 2
Greater than one million viewers: AAC 5, mwc 1

(12-15-2021 10:37 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(12-15-2021 09:52 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  I look forward to revisiting this subject in two years. One of us will be surprised.

I'll be here, inshallah.
Look forward to seeing how the prognostications hold up. I would like to think that I have a reputation on here for standing up to past statements and admitting misses.

That's great news because I do enjoy the data you bring to the discussion.

(12-14-2021 04:20 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(12-14-2021 02:10 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  With final numbers for Army-Navy in, we can look at viewership conference by conference.

As usual sportsmediawatch.com and showbuzzdaily.com are the two major sources.
At risk of being Captain Obvious, these numbers are for Nielsen-rated networks only (e.g., no CBSSN)

The most important thing is conference-controlled inventory - the numbers that dictate media deals.

2021 Conference Controlled Inventory Viewership
B10 205,758,000
SEC 156,977,000
B12 90,325,000
ACC 68,366,000
P12 65,080,000
AAC 25,952,000
mwc 7,173,000
SBC 5,838,000
MAC 3,649,000
CUSA 412,000

Pretty clearly shows there is a P5, A true tweener conf AAC, and then a G4.

B10 205,758,000
SEC 156,977,000
B12 90,325,000
ACC 68,366,000
P12 65,080,000
AAC 25,952,000
______________

mwc 7,173,000
SBC 5,838,000
MAC 3,649,000
CUSA 412,000


Pretty clearly shows there is a P6, And then a G4.

(12-14-2021 07:36 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(12-14-2021 02:10 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  With final numbers for Army-Navy in, we can look at viewership conference by conference.

As usual sportsmediawatch.com and showbuzzdaily.com are the two major sources.
At risk of being Captain Obvious, these numbers are for Nielsen-rated networks only (e.g., no CBSSN)

The most important thing is conference-controlled inventory - the numbers that dictate media deals.

2021 Conference Controlled Inventory Viewership
B10 205,758,000
SEC 156,977,000
B12 90,325,000
ACC 68,366,000
P12 65,080,000
AAC 25,952,000
mwc 7,173,000
SBC 5,838,000
MAC 3,649,000
CUSA 412,000

The biggest surprise to me is at the top. I would have guessed the SEC would have a slight lead---instead---its the Big10 that has the lead---and the real surprise is its not really all that close.

Metro viewership...

(12-15-2021 10:44 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  One more post here to add to historical threads.

This is a thing I've tracked for several years, the number of games by non-contract-bowl-conference with 3, 2, and 1 million viewers. Kind of got trumped by the very good article this year on the "4 Million Club." But this is what I have compiled since around 2017:

Updated the below with the following 2021 Bowl Games:
2021 Bowl Games
2021 Bowl games over 3 million viewers: AAC 2, CUSA 1
2021 Bowl games over 2 million viewers: AAC 3, mwc 1, MAC 1, CUSA 1
2021 Bowl games over 1 million viewers: AAC 3, mwc 5, SBC 4, MAC 7, CUSA 7

2015-2021 Big Viewer Games AFTER 2021 bowls
'15-'21 total games over 3 million viewers: AAC 38, mwc 4, MAC 4, CUSA 1
'15-'21 total games over 2 million viewers: AAC 72, CUSA 11, MAC 14, mwc 17, SBC 5
'15-'21 total games over 1 million viewers: AAC 136, mwc 60, CUSA 51, MAC 44, SBC 23

'15-'21 non-bowl games over 3 million viewers: AAC 26, MAC 2
'15-'21 non-bowl games over 2 million viewers: AAC 48, CUSA 4, MAC 2, mwc 6, SBC 1
'15-'21 non-bowl games over 1 million viewers:AAC 96, CUSA 13, MAC 14, mwc 27, SBC 12

'15-'21 conference controlled games over 3 million viewers: AAC 12, G4s 0
'15-'21 conference controlled games over 2 million viewers: AAC 27, mwc 1
'15-'21 conference controlled games over 1 million viewers:AAC 62, CUSA 2, MAC 2, mwc 9, SBC 5

'15-'21 intra-conference games over 3 million viewers: AAC 8, G4s 0
'15-'21 intra-conference games over 2 million viewers: AAC 16, G4s 0
'15-'21 intra-conference games over 1 million viewers: AAC 29, MAC 2 (CCGs), mwc 6 (4 reg season, 2 CCG), SBC 1 (reg)

2021 Big Viewer Games
2021 Bowl games and regular season:
Greater than three million viewers: AAC 5, CUSA 1
Greater than two million viewers: AAC 8, mwc 2, SBC 1, MAC 1, CUSA 1
Greater than one million viewers: AAC 17, SBC 7, mwc 9, CUSA 10, MAC 9

2021 non-bowl games
Greater than three million viewers: AAC 3
Greater than two million viewers: AAC 5, SBC 1, mwc 1
Greater than one million viewers: AAC 14, SBC 3, mwc 4, CUSA 3, MAC 2

2021 conference-controlled games
Greater than three million viewers: AAC 1
Greater than two million viewers: AAC 2
Greater than one million viewers: AAC 8, SBC 2, mwc 1

2021 intra-conference games
Greater than three million viewers: AAC 1
Greater than two million viewers: AAC 2
Greater than one million viewers: AAC 5, mwc 1

(12-15-2021 10:44 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  One more post here to add to historical threads.

This is a thing I've tracked for several years, the number of games by non-contract-bowl-conference with 3, 2, and 1 million viewers. Kind of got trumped by the very good article this year on the "4 Million Club." But this is what I have compiled since around 2017:

Since you have been tracking these trends over years, you're one of the few who knows whether the gap between the AAC and the P5 conferences has been getting smaller over time,

and if it has been getting smaller - - how much smaller?

In other words, was the AAC's viewership only 20% of a measure of the average P5 conference's viewership X years ago, and it now more like 30% of that measure?

.

Only asking this if it doesn't require more than a few minutes of your time.

.

Another, similar question pertains not to the AAC but to all non-P5 teams.

Has viewership only improved for the AAC, or has it also improved for the non-P5 schools as a whole, with some improvement for viewership of the other conferences in addition to the increase in AAC viewership?

.

Just ballpark estimates would be very interesting - something you could do on a scrap piece of paper in a few minutes would be great. thanks.

(12-16-2021 12:32 PM)GoOwls111 Wrote:  

(12-14-2021 07:36 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(12-14-2021 02:10 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  With final numbers for Army-Navy in, we can look at viewership conference by conference.

As usual sportsmediawatch.com and showbuzzdaily.com are the two major sources.
At risk of being Captain Obvious, these numbers are for Nielsen-rated networks only (e.g., no CBSSN)

The most important thing is conference-controlled inventory - the numbers that dictate media deals.

2021 Conference Controlled Inventory Viewership
B10 205,758,000
SEC 156,977,000
B12 90,325,000
ACC 68,366,000
P12 65,080,000
AAC 25,952,000
mwc 7,173,000
SBC 5,838,000
MAC 3,649,000
CUSA 412,000

The biggest surprise to me is at the top. I would have guessed the SEC would have a slight lead---instead---its the Big10 that has the lead---and the real surprise is its not really all that close.

Metro viewership...

mwc 7,173,000
SBC 5,838,000
MAC 3,649,000
CUSA 412,000

total: approximately 17,000,000

AAC: approximately 25,000,000

all
non-
P5 : approximately 42,000,000 (less than any single P5 conference)

Less than half of the Big 12's annual viewership.

.

(12-15-2021 12:28 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(12-15-2021 11:10 AM)Vonz90 Wrote:  How much of Houston/UCF/CU being towards the top is by them getting the national time slots vs the regional time slots? A true comparison would have to weight it by actual TV exposure.

I'm not actually sure what you're saying. It's all ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, nothing "regional." I don't think we even had any of the ABC-ESPN2 reverse mirror deals this year.

As I was saying though, the top performing teams get the top slots -- ABC instead of ESPN, ESPN instead of ESPN2, ESPN2 instead of ESPNU. Cincinnati for the last few years, Memphis before that, UCF before that. None of those leaving are like UT/OU in terms of consistent brand consistently drawing above and beyond others. When those three leave...someone else will be the top two teams in the AAC. And will be in the mix for NY6 or a 5+1+6/6+6 CFP, and will have an advantage in buzz and exposure over Sun Belt or mwc or MAC or CUSA.

Are you saying compare timeslot for timeslot? Dividing up Thursday-Friday-SatNoon-Sat3:30-Sat19:30 (and honestly at least a couple of the Thurs/Fri are FURTHER separable with 2100ET kicks), and then dividing those up by multiple networks...in most cases, you end up talking about eaches. Some true comps, but still a small sample.

I sort of get what he(or she, it's the 90's), was asking. Cincinnati, for instance, as the top team this year is picking up more of the prime ABC/ESPN timeslots. Like you said, we can't necessarily expect viewership to drop 44% when three teams leave because they aren't taking the timeslots with them.

I think the question was how we could potentially forecast what the picture would look like after the 3 departing roll out, and the top three remaining are thrown into those timeslots. No great way to do it, so more of a topic for discussion.

Thanks for putting these numbers together, I love geeking out on the stats!