slhNavy91
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RE: End of 2021 regular season - TV viewership
(12-15-2021 12:02 AM)Milwaukee Wrote: (12-14-2021 04:47 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote: Team........conf vwrs.....%age
Cincinnati..12,532,000...28.45%
Houston....6,201,000....14.08%
Tulane.......3,962,000......8.99%
USF...........3,860,000......8.76%
UCF...........3,719,000......8.44%
ECU..........3,372,000....7.66%
Navy.........3,043,000.....6.91%
Memphis...2,319,000.....5.26%
Tulsa.........2,147,000......4.87%
SMU..........1,781,000.....4.04%
Temple......1,111,000......2.52%
Cincinnati..12,532,000...28.45%
Houston....6,201,000.....14.08%
UCF...........3,719,000......8.44%
UC/UH/UCF: 22,452,000...50.97%
This appears to suggest that, in 2021 to date, Cincy, Houston, and UCF have accounted for 51% of the conference's football viewership.
This is somewhat higher than in previous years. Their average share since 2017 may have been closer to 40% or 45%.
At face value, this would suggest that conference viewership could drop by 40% or more when UC, UH, and UCF start playing in the Big 12, at least in the first 2 or 3 seasons after they leave.
A lot will depend on whether the departure of UC, UH, and UCF creates an opportunity for 2 or 3 conference schools to rise up in the rankings by winning a higher % of their games.
Schools such as Navy, Memphis, and SMU, which have been among the strongest AAC football schools, along with incoming UTSA, might stand to benefit the most if that happens.
Questions:
If the AAC's overall viewership shrinks by ~40% or more, will it gradually recover to current levels? or,
Will some of that viewership shift to some of the higher-profile teams in other G5 conferences, such as App St., Louisiana, SDSU, Boise, Coastal Carolina, etc.?
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I think you have to look at the numbers you quoted AND the post two below the one you quoted, with 2017-2021 aggregated.
Looking at the five year numbers, the three departing teams are not THE top three teams, they are three of the top five. They represent 44.58% of viewership of conference controlled inventory. (By comparison, UT/OU ARE the top two of the Big12, representing more like 60% of viewership).
2021 is a departure from that, with the three departing teams squeaking past 50% of conference viewership. But they are still only three of the top five in 2021. The difference in 2021 is that two of the three are #1 and #2 for the year. Why is that? Because this is the only time in the last five years that the top two teams in performance have been two of the three teams departing. 2021 AAC CCG was the FIRST to match up two departing teams -- we already had a CCG matching up two remaining teams in 2016.
Cincinnati and Houston aren't the top two teams in viewership for 2021 because they're omg CINCINNATI!!1! & omg HOUSTON!!1!. Plenty of years where one or both was no where near the top. They're the top two teams in viewership because they're the top two teams in performance this year. There are a couple factors to that. The team with CFP buzz will generate public interest, certainly. But also, the top performing teams will get on ESPN instead of ESPN2 and on ABC instead of ESPN.
Whenever the three depart, the top performing teams in the AAC will get the buzz and get the exposure spots, and be the top viewership teams in the AAC. ANY of the eight remainers can take up that mantel. (Tulsa just in the CCG in '20, Temple in our first two CCGs and northeast population corridor and NFL product history, Tulane's angry wave is great on TV etc etc) With just recent performance, add UTSA and UAB -- I suppose there are a couple of the newcomers that are historically bad such that if they are the AAC's top performers it could be a net loss in perception of the AAC.
But the AAC's viewers won't displace to the Sun Belt / mwc teams you listed. The top teams in the AAC will be on ABC and ESPN; the top mwc teams will be on FS1 late at night, and the top SunBelt teams will have some ESPN exposure, and some of that will be on Tuesday/Wednesday nights (the Sun Belt contract is for 15 games on ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU compared to the AAC's 40 games on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU).
ALSO...some of those conference-controlled inventory numbers come from outside the AAC. Tulane is up there because they hosted Oklahoma (hosted in Norman due to hurricane, but still AAC contract). USF is up there in 2021 and the five year numbers because they get home games vs UF and FSU. Navy's Notre Dame home games still have yet to show up as conference inventory and Navy is still in the middle of the pack (the 2020 BYU replacement was one of the key strengths of Navy in the methodology on the realignment board that counted home games). mwc can give the AAC a little challenge there - they get a few good, home OOC games, but the Sun Belt just don't have as good OOC product in their conference-controlled inventory.
The AAC may slide back a little overall. But we won't be overtaken in viewership by any of the G4 conferences.
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