West: BYU, Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State

Midwest: Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State

Texas: Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Houston (Tulane if egos prevent this)

East: West Virginia, Cincinnati, UCF, USF (Memphis if no need for two Florida schools)

https://sports.yahoo.com/think-big-here-...16120.html


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Works for me. Best of the rest conference needs to be created.

Adding 8 teams would be like the kid in the ice cream shop who can't decide and refuses to decide, so he gets one scoop of each flavor and then most of it falls off the cone.

Adding 8 teams at once wouldn't make people think of the 16-team SEC. It would make people think of the 16-team WAC. And the Big 12 won't do it.

(08-27-2021 09:14 PM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  West: BYU, Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State

Midwest: Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State

Texas: Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Houston (Tulane if egos prevent this)

East: West Virginia, Cincinnati, UCF, USF (Memphis if no need for two Florida schools)

https://sports.yahoo.com/think-big-here-...16120.html


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That looks really good on paper

Ah yes, a conference that stretches from San Diego to Orlando.

This will end well.

(08-27-2021 09:32 PM)thrill_house Wrote:  Ah yes, a conference that stretches from San Diego to Orlando.

This will end well.

A best of the rest autonomous confernce where the TV money is. Not SEC or Alliance level but is much better than the AAC or Sunbelt

It wouldn't be ideal but with clear geographic pods and strategic scheduling for non revenue sports I could see it working...if TV WILL SUPPORT

As much as I’d like this, I don’t see how one of Boise St, Colorado St, or San Diego St gets in over Memphis. Even more, I think SMU and Temple (and possibly Tulane) may be stronger options than the Western schools, other than BYU.

There is no TV money in this conference anymore.

They're not going to be able to convince a major network to swap the likes of Iowa - Minnesota, Florida - Tennessee, Washington - Utah, etc. to broadcast Oklahoma State - Boise State.

(08-27-2021 09:14 PM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  West: BYU, Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State

Midwest: Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State

Texas: Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Houston (Tulane if egos prevent this)

East: West Virginia, Cincinnati, UCF, USF (Memphis if no need for two Florida schools)

https://sports.yahoo.com/think-big-here-...16120.html


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No love for SMU. In 1983, they were #2 in the nation and playing Pitt in the Cotton Bowl. A generation later, passed over for San Diego State?

Thamel is caught up in the old “Let’s make a coast-to-coast best-of-the-rest conference!” trap. His article reads like one of the BOR conference advocacy posts that pop up on this board every summer. It’s a bad idea. Too many mouths to feed, too much travel for the non-football sports.

Also the more AAC and MWC teams that are added to the Big 12, the more it will look like the AAC and MWC. I don’t think that’s what the Big 12 wants.

The smart move is to add BYU and Cincinnati and stop there.

Agree on 16.

Don't agree with his choices.

WEST
UNLV, BYU, TCU, TECH

NORTH
ISU, KU, KSU, OSU

SOUTH
SMU, HOUSTON, BAYLOR, MEMPHIS

EAST
CINCI, WV, UCF, USF

(08-27-2021 09:14 PM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  West: BYU, Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State

Midwest: Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State

Texas: Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Houston (Tulane if egos prevent this)

East: West Virginia, Cincinnati, UCF, USF (Memphis if no need for two Florida schools)

https://sports.yahoo.com/think-big-here-...16120.html


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So in other words:
A MWC division (though BYU/Boise never played in it at the same time)
A SWC division
An old Big 8 division
An Old Big East division

In terms of preserved rivalries, etc. I like it.

(08-27-2021 09:50 PM)thrill_house Wrote:  There is no TV money in this conference anymore.

They're not going to be able to convince a major network to swap the likes of Iowa - Minnesota, Florida - Tennessee, Washington - Utah, etc. to broadcast Oklahoma State - Boise State.

How is it feasible for an “Autonomy” league to half have it’s members unable to vote on important issues? The AAC/MWC/BYU backfill don’t get a say as if they were a part of the 65 elect schools even if they join the. Big xII carcus..

Answer:

Past 12 dilutes the overall conference brand equity. You do it because the incremental media value added by the specific incoming schools pays for that general cost of growth and still provides net value growth.

And the Big12 with BYU and Cincy is already a clear BOR conference, so you do not need to grow beyond 10 to hold onto that status and whatever strategic benefit it provides. Indeed, both BYU and Cincy qualify for the P5 quota in the Big10, so adding just those two makes the fewest waves regarding removed the Big12 from the power conference scheduling quota.

The decision on any pair of Boise/Houston, Houston/Memphis, Houston/UCF or UCF/USF is that if any of them attract an increment of 20% or more for the contract, find out which pair moves the needle the most and pick them. Then the media contract increment is justification enough, and no more "strategic" factors need to be considered.

So that is the baseline to compare with the "Big BOR Coast to Coast" conference idea. By construction, the Big12 at 12 would have taken the schools that add the most media value, and so adding four more will certainly dilute media value. There has to be some kind of offsetting benefit to justify BYU/Cincy+6 over BYU/Cincy+$$Best2.

Now, a general claim for the "Coast to Coast" option is that there is some kind of media value for a BOR conference from being able to spread across the broadcast day so that you can grab an upgraded spot because there just happens to be a weaker spot in the weekly schedule at some point in the day. That upgrade could be at any level of the hierarchy, but would typically be within the cable levels: upgrading an ESPN mothership level game to mirrored regional OTA & ESPN2/FS1, an ESPN2/FS1 to ESPN mothership, an ESPNU/FS2/CBSSN to ESPN2/FS1, or a streaming to ESPNU/FS2/CBSSN.

But if there is a serious increment in television money from having the option of games at any time of day from 12noonETZ/9amPTZ, though 3:30ETZ/12:30PTZ, to 7pmETZ/4pmPTZ, to 10pmETZ/7pmPTZ ... just because of the opportunities to upgrade broadcast slots when there are accidental weak spots in the way the P4 games lined up ... you can harvest a lot of that by just delaying making your weekly schedule until the P4 have announced their weekly schedule, and you have the advice of your telecast partner(s) how to tweak your weekly schedule to upgrade the value.

Then you get most of the increment without having to share it around among so many schools.

And if there is not a serious increment in television money from having that scheduling day option, then the BOR "big conference, coast to coast" approaches were always silly, all along.

(08-27-2021 10:42 PM)CarlSmithCenter Wrote:  How is it feasible for an “Autonomy” league to half have it’s members unable to vote on important issues? The AAC/MWC/BYU backfill don’t get a say as if they were a part of the 65 elect schools even if they join the. Big xII carcus..

Half it's members aren't important and should be grateful that they're even allowed to play them.

The problem is the TV networks will pay the Big 12 more or less exactly the same total money for 10 schools as for 12, 14, or 16 schools. More schools doesn't create any additional compelling must watch games (Boise State vs USF, Cincy vs K State and so on). Additional downsides are the breaking up of most of the traditional games between the 8 schools, and also for many schools the loss of playing Kansas on their home court - a sure fire premium ticket price sellout.

Thamel will memory hole this one sometime in the near future, after somebody explains the cons to him. But for now it's click bait.

The Big 12 should expand in stages. Pausing at each stage to make sure the next addition still makes sense.

Short-term options to consider now
Stage 1. Add BYU and Cincy
2. Add UCF and USF
3. Add Houston and Memphis
4. Add CSU and BSU

long-term options far in the future
5. Add UNLV and SDSU
6. Add NM and Hawaii

Final result for the Big 12, if it never stops expanding and nobody else leaves, it would eventually become a giant 20-team coast to coast conference

West
SDSU, UNLV, BYU, BSU, Hawaii

North
ISU, Kan, KSU, OkSt, CSU

South
TT, TCU, Bay, Hou, NM

East
WV, Cincy, UCF, USF, Memphis

You have 8 teams. You are looking for a 10% bump in value. The 8 teams have "X_1" average value.

Eight teams are worth 8X_1. Ten teams have to be worth 10(1.1X_1)=11.1X_1.
Delta_1 = 3.1X_1.

If the weekly inventory penalty for eight schools costs 10% of its value, the schools would only have to bring an increment of 1.15 X_1 each. If it's 20% of its value, the schools would only have to bring an increment of 0.75X_1 each.

Now the average value is X_2, with is greater than or equal to 1.1X_1.

Ten teams are worth 10X_2. The next pair has to bring 12(1.1X_2) = 13.2(X_2)

The inventory effect is going to be smaller, if it's there at all. Going from 3 or 4 games during the conference schedule to 4 or 5 is a bigger inventory benefit than going from 4/5 to 5/6. For simplicity, I'll take it at half the above and then assume that past 12 the inventory tapers off.

(0.8X_1)/2= 0.4(X_1) ~= 0.4X_2 (but rounding up). (1.6X_1)/2=0.8(X_1) ~= 0.7X_2 (rounding down)

So after the inventory effect and then taking into account that the first add grew the value of the conference, the two adds have to each be about 1.4X_1 to 1.6X_1. The second pair schools have to be roughly 50% more valuable than the average of the original schools.

Now 14 has to bring [14(1.1X_3) - 12X_3] = 3.4X_3, which is 1.7X_3 per school, and X_3 has escalated by 10% (or more) twice, so that is >= 2X_1. The new schools have to be worth twice the average of the existing schools, on average.

Now 16 has to bring [16(1.1X_4) - 14X_4] = 3.6X_4, which is 1.8X_4 per school, which is >= 2.4X_1

The SEC could expand to 12 with SC and the Razerbacks, because at the time it allowed the SEC to have a CCG, so pretty much any good fits would have worked. That is no longer an issue, as a nine conference games and a top two CCG and eight conference games and division champion CCG with 5 school divisions are both allowed by today's rules.

Then the SEC expanded to 14 with Texas A&M and Mizzou, and getting into East Texas and then the additional Texas A&M alumni in DFW and South Central Texas made it worth while.

But that expansion meant another expansion of the value of Texas A&M and Mizzou might not work.

And then it was Texas and Oklahoma, which is the monster add of them all.

It's not clear that the Big12 can find the pair that has the value to make going to 12 possible. But if they simply take the best two available, that both takes the best expansion to 14 off the table and raises the bar for how much has to be added to go to 14.

(08-27-2021 09:52 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  No love for SMU. In 1983, they were #2 in the nation and playing Pitt in the Cotton Bowl. A generation later, passed over for San Diego State?

1983 to 2021 is 1 generation?

(08-28-2021 02:24 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(08-27-2021 09:52 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  No love for SMU. In 1983, they were #2 in the nation and playing Pitt in the Cotton Bowl. A generation later, passed over for San Diego State?

1983 to 2021 is 1 generation?

Of course. Heck, I'm not THAT old.