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Thamel: Big 12 should go to 16
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SouthEastAlaska Offline
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Post: #61
RE: Thamel: Big 12 should go to 16
I think the remaining VIII should only replace what they lose and not until they lose it. So when UT/OU leave you add two... I'm thinking BYU and UCF. If none of the Alliance conferences come calling in the next few years then the BigXII realignment adds are done. However, if the PAC or B1G decides to add 2 then you counter with adding 2 replacements... essentially never moving past 10 teams. I think if the remainders want the most for their TV rights when they renegotiate without UT/OU, smaller is better IMO. 16 is to many.
08-28-2021 07:27 PM
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sierrajip Offline
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Post: #62
RE: Thamel: Big 12 should go to 16
(08-28-2021 11:18 AM)BigEastMike Wrote:  
(08-28-2021 11:13 AM)Steve1981 Wrote:  
(08-27-2021 09:52 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  
(08-27-2021 09:14 PM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  West: BYU, Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State

Midwest: Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State

Texas: Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Houston (Tulane if egos prevent this)

East: West Virginia, Cincinnati, UCF, USF (Memphis if no need for two Florida schools)

https://sports.yahoo.com/think-big-here-...16120.html


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No love for SMU. In 1983, they were #2 in the nation and playing Pitt in the Cotton Bowl. A generation later, passed over for San Diego State?

The issue with SMU is not the number of times they have cheated but the number of times they have been caught cheating with NCAA penalties.

I think it mostly has to do with TCU already bringing in the Dallas-FW market

SMU would not have been cheating under the rules that will be in place soon.
08-28-2021 07:37 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #63
RE: Thamel: Big 12 should go to 16
Quote: The Athletic anonymously quoted a Big 12 athletic director saying that none of those teams are desirable because they don’t bring enough “eyeballs” with them.

Hard to imagine going to 16 when that is the opinion about their options. Even harder to imagine a network paying any additional money for more schools beyond what they need to hit the required inventory threshold. Think about it a second, with only one to two cable or linear slots a week allotted for the Big 12 (preferably against an OOC opponent of decent prestige) with the rest going digital, why would a network pay even $1 more for additional digital games?

The financial math just doesn't work above 10 schools, and I'm not fully convinced it works above 9 schools.
08-28-2021 08:30 PM
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BigEastMike Offline
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Post: #64
RE: Thamel: Big 12 should go to 16
(08-28-2021 08:30 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  
Quote: The Athletic anonymously quoted a Big 12 athletic director saying that none of those teams are desirable because they don’t bring enough “eyeballs” with them.

Hard to imagine going to 16 when that is the opinion about their options. Even harder to imagine a network paying any additional money for more schools beyond what they need to hit the required inventory threshold. Think about it a second, with only one to two cable or linear slots a week allotted for the Big 12 (preferably against an OOC opponent of decent prestige) with the rest going digital, why would a network pay even $1 more for additional digital games?

The financial math just doesn't work above 10 schools, and I'm not fully convinced it works above 9 schools.

16 conference games for bball isnt optimal for a power conference. You need at least 18.
08-28-2021 09:25 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #65
RE: Thamel: Big 12 should go to 16
(08-28-2021 09:25 PM)BigEastMike Wrote:  
(08-28-2021 08:30 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  
Quote: The Athletic anonymously quoted a Big 12 athletic director saying that none of those teams are desirable because they don’t bring enough “eyeballs” with them.

Hard to imagine going to 16 when that is the opinion about their options. Even harder to imagine a network paying any additional money for more schools beyond what they need to hit the required inventory threshold. Think about it a second, with only one to two cable or linear slots a week allotted for the Big 12 (preferably against an OOC opponent of decent prestige) with the rest going digital, why would a network pay even $1 more for additional digital games?

The financial math just doesn't work above 10 schools, and I'm not fully convinced it works above 9 schools.

16 conference games for bball isnt optimal for a power conference. You need at least 18.

Depends, if it's a school like UCF who would likely be like Nebraska basketball in the Big Ten, then it's no value. But if it's somebody like Gonzaga adding must see games, then that would be worth it. Again are you creating games for CBS/NBC/ESPN or just adding more digital games?

It makes more sense to allow the stronger schools to schedule games against better OOC opponents or play a conference challenge than to add a school that only gives you digital games.

The Big 12 is a conference where just over half the schools in any given year go to the tournament. That is a very high bar to for a 10th school to reach. And a school that doesn't come close to that might have a negative ripple effect reducing the number of bids the Big 12 gets, making them a net negative to add.

This is why I am not at all convinced the math works for a 10th. Maybe one or two schools are small positive returns, but most are net negatives. It gets worse and worse with each school beyond 10 as you have more negative side effects and the values of the schools are a bit lower than the ones picked before them.
(This post was last modified: 08-29-2021 04:48 AM by Stugray2.)
08-29-2021 12:44 AM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #66
RE: Thamel: Big 12 should go to 16
(08-29-2021 12:44 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Depends, if it's a school like UCF who would likely be like Nebraska basketball in the Big Ten, then it's no value. But if it's somebody like Gonzaga adding must see games, then that would be worth it. Again are you creating games for CBS/NBC/ESPN or just adding more digital games?

It makes more sense to allow the stronger schools to schedule games against better OOC opponents or play a conference challenge than to add a school that only gives you digital games. ...

But if it's UC and BYU or Houston, it seems like those are not just all more digital games.

For me, UCF without a UCF/USF travel pair is the thinking if the commissioner's estimate is roughly correct that the value of TX/OK and the value of the R8 taken together is about equal, putting the baseline somewhere are $25m, so the travel costs of Olympic team sports aren't an issue that Presidents worry about as much.

If it's more like 2:1, then either BYU/UC, BYU/Houston or Houston/UC looks like they would be at least a modest increment in value per school than any one of those three individually, and the structural benefits of 10 over 9 would make it 10 even if the 10th was just par value.

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(08-28-2021 07:37 PM)sierrajip Wrote:  SMU would not have been cheating under the rules that will be in place soon.

Yeah, but you can't unbreak an egg. The impact of the "death penalty" on their competitive position means they are where they are now. People figuring that what they did wasn't so bad after all doesn't do anything to repair the competitive history already in place.
(This post was last modified: 08-29-2021 01:45 AM by BruceMcF.)
08-29-2021 01:37 AM
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BigEastMike Offline
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Post: #67
RE: Thamel: Big 12 should go to 16
(08-29-2021 12:44 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  
(08-28-2021 09:25 PM)BigEastMike Wrote:  
(08-28-2021 08:30 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  
Quote: The Athletic anonymously quoted a Big 12 athletic director saying that none of those teams are desirable because they don’t bring enough “eyeballs” with them.

Hard to imagine going to 16 when that is the opinion about their options. Even harder to imagine a network paying any additional money for more schools beyond what they need to hit the required inventory threshold. Think about it a second, with only one to two cable or linear slots a week allotted for the Big 12 (preferably against an OOC opponent of decent prestige) with the rest going digital, why would a network pay even $1 more for additional digital games?

The financial math just doesn't work above 10 schools, and I'm not fully convinced it works above 9 schools.

16 conference games for bball isnt optimal for a power conference. You need at least 18.

Depends, if it's a school like UCF who would likely be like Nebraska basketball in the Big Ten, then it's no value. But if it's somebody like Gonzaga adding must see games, then that would be worth it. Again are you creating games for CBS/NBC/ESPN or just adding more digital games?

It makes more sense to allow the stronger schools to schedule games against better OOC opponents or play a conference challenge than to add a school that only gives you digital games.

The Big 12 is a conference where just over half the schools in any given year go to the tournament. That is a very high bar to for a 10th school to reach. And a school that doesn't come close to that might have a negative ripple effect reducing the number of bids the Big 12 gets, making them a net negative to add.

This is why I am not at all convinced the math works for a 10th. Maybe one or two schools are small positive returns, but most are net negatives. It gets worse and worse with each school beyond 10 as you have more negative side effects and the values of the schools are a bit lower than the ones picked before them.

Its not about how good they are, its about giving those other schools enough games. Multiple power conferences are playing 20 conference games, thats less room to get quality OOC games. They're also probably going to lose their challenge with the Big East after all of this especially if they only have 9 teams.

I don't know what math you're doing but more inventory is worth more money for any conference.
08-29-2021 06:00 AM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #68
RE: Thamel: Big 12 should go to 16
Mike—the Big 12 still has Kansas and is an excellent basketball property. They won’t lose the Big East challenge series.
08-29-2021 06:44 AM
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BigEastMike Offline
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Post: #69
RE: Thamel: Big 12 should go to 16
(08-29-2021 06:44 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Mike—the Big 12 still has Kansas and is an excellent basketball property. They won’t lose the Big East challenge series.

We'll see.
08-29-2021 07:09 AM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #70
RE: Thamel: Big 12 should go to 16
(08-29-2021 06:00 AM)BigEastMike Wrote:  I don't know what math you're doing but more inventory is worth more money for any conference.

The question isn't whether the number goes up as much as whether the average number goes up. Going from 9 to 10 is likely to increase rthe average number because the risk of a week without a usable broadcast game, based on how the season is going ... and the opportunity cost if you cannot find the second broadcast game in the week when you'd rather have it ...

... step up from a mix of three to four games in the weekly inventory in October/November, to a mix of four and five games in the weekly schedule, and the risk that the Big12 schedule doesn't give you a usable broadcast game goes down, lets you down in the weeks that are soft somewhere else in your lineup goes down.

They are in the business of paying an agreed price to try to gain an income from entertainment of variable and unpredictable value. They price those risks in.

However, it's diminishing returns ... the gross impact on the contract will be smaller 9 to 10 than 8 to 9, 10 to 12 will be still smaller, 12 to 14 will be still smaller, and at the same time its an impact on the gross contract value, so the more schools you have, the more it dilutes the inventory effects.

Unless there are some other value drivers in the mix, if they take the best pair to get to 10, the second best pair to get to 12 might not be an increase in value on a per school basis.
08-29-2021 10:04 AM
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Shox Offline
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Post: #71
RE: Thamel: Big 12 should go to 16
(08-27-2021 09:41 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  As much as I’d like this, I don’t see how one of Boise St, Colorado St, or San Diego St gets in over Memphis. Even more, I think SMU and Temple (and possibly Tulane) may be stronger options than the Western schools, other than BYU.


Memphis didn't make the final cut to 12 in 2016 either..
08-29-2021 10:50 AM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Offline
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RE: Thamel: Big 12 should go to 16
(08-28-2021 02:24 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  
(08-27-2021 09:52 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  No love for SMU. In 1983, they were #2 in the nation and playing Pitt in the Cotton Bowl. A generation later, passed over for San Diego State?

1983 to 2021 is 1 generation?

In 2021? I would say yes. People are having kids later.
08-29-2021 11:05 AM
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Shox Offline
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RE: Thamel: Big 12 should go to 16
(08-28-2021 03:31 PM)TigerPete Wrote:  What G5 teams deserve a conference promotion based upon on field football and basketball success?

Not markets, not academics. Just on field success over last 10 years. Yes, I realize this isn't the only criteria of how expansion decisions are made...but this should give good idea based on results. Using football AP poll.

Boise - 5 top 25 football finishes, 2 NCAA tournaments

Cincy - 3 top 25 football finishes, 8 NCAA tournaments

That's not how this works...
Houston - 1 top 25 football finishes, 3 NCAA tournaments

UCF - 4 top 25 football finishes, 1 NCAA tournaments

Memphis - 3 top 25 football finishes, 3 NCAA tournaments

USF - 2 top 25 football finishes, 0 NCAA tournaments

CSU - 0 top 25 football finishes, 2 NCAA tournaments

SMU - 0 top 25 football finishes, 2 NCAA tournaments

SDSU - 1 top 25 football finishes, 6 NCAA tournaments

Tulane - 0 top 25 football finishes, 0 NCAA tournaments

BYU - 1 top 25 football finishes, 3 NCAA tournaments


Top 4 in football: Boise, UCF, Memphis, Cincy

Top 4 in Basketball: Cincy, SDSU, Memphis, Houston, BYU
08-29-2021 11:11 AM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Offline
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RE: Thamel: Big 12 should go to 16
(08-28-2021 06:29 PM)Crayton Wrote:  I think UCF will signal that they’ll wait for a larger ETZ presence.

If UCF gets a XII invite, 100% chance they run and take it.
08-29-2021 11:12 AM
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Charlie Broadway Offline
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Post: #75
RE: Thamel: Big 12 should go to 16
(08-29-2021 10:50 AM)Shox Wrote:  
(08-27-2021 09:41 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  As much as I’d like this, I don’t see how one of Boise St, Colorado St, or San Diego St gets in over Memphis. Even more, I think SMU and Temple (and possibly Tulane) may be stronger options than the Western schools, other than BYU.


Memphis didn't make the final cut to 12 in 2016 either..


This is honestly the most entertaining part of this sub forum. A lot of things we already know but people blatantly ignore them to push their preferred narrative. We already went through this song and dance 5 years ago. We’ve been through multiple tv renegotiations and know exactly who the most valuable schools are and yet it STILL won’t stop people from throwing out Boise, Colorado St. Memphis, USF…
(This post was last modified: 08-29-2021 11:17 AM by Charlie Broadway.)
08-29-2021 11:15 AM
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BigEastMike Offline
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Post: #76
RE: Thamel: Big 12 should go to 16
(08-29-2021 10:04 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(08-29-2021 06:00 AM)BigEastMike Wrote:  I don't know what math you're doing but more inventory is worth more money for any conference.

The question isn't whether the number goes up as much as whether the average number goes up. Going from 9 to 10 is likely to increase rthe average number because the risk of a week without a usable broadcast game, based on how the season is going ... and the opportunity cost if you cannot find the second broadcast game in the week when you'd rather have it ...

... step up from a mix of three to four games in the weekly inventory in October/November, to a mix of four and five games in the weekly schedule, and the risk that the Big12 schedule doesn't give you a usable broadcast game goes down, lets you down in the weeks that are soft somewhere else in your lineup goes down.

They are in the business of paying an agreed price to try to gain an income from entertainment of variable and unpredictable value. They price those risks in.

However, it's diminishing returns ... the gross impact on the contract will be smaller 9 to 10 than 8 to 9, 10 to 12 will be still smaller, 12 to 14 will be still smaller, and at the same time its an impact on the gross contract value, so the more schools you have, the more it dilutes the inventory effects.

Unless there are some other value drivers in the mix, if they take the best pair to get to 10, the second best pair to get to 12 might not be an increase in value on a per school basis.

The poster I was replying to was talking about stopping at 9 which isn't really increasing any value. Also we have no idea what the contract will/could look like. Fox might decide they need more inventory and pay them a decent amount for the whole thing. People are assuming taking the best G5 teams somehow could hurt the L8 and thats not really the case as long as it's not half the AAC.
08-29-2021 11:20 AM
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Crayton Offline
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RE: Thamel: Big 12 should go to 16
(08-29-2021 11:12 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(08-28-2021 06:29 PM)Crayton Wrote:  I think UCF will signal that they’ll wait for a larger ETZ presence.

If UCF gets a XII invite, 100% chance they run and take it.

Probably. I just don’t anticipate it being in a scenario where both USF and Cincinnati stay in the AAC. UCF won’t be “calling the shots” or anything, but it is a two-way deal and I think they will signal their desire to be added with one or both of those two teams.
08-29-2021 11:20 AM
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b2b Offline
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RE: Thamel: Big 12 should go to 16
(08-29-2021 06:00 AM)BigEastMike Wrote:  I don't know what math you're doing but more inventory is worth more money for any conference.

Maybe in absolute dollars but not necessarily on a per school tv payout basis.

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08-29-2021 11:23 AM
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BigEastMike Offline
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RE: Thamel: Big 12 should go to 16
(08-29-2021 11:23 AM)b2b Wrote:  
(08-29-2021 06:00 AM)BigEastMike Wrote:  I don't know what math you're doing but more inventory is worth more money for any conference.

Maybe in absolute dollars but not necessarily on a per school tv payout basis.

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I know that there is a point where there is diminishing returns but I was talking to a poster who was suggesting only expanding by 1 team. That makes a 16 game conference schedule for BBall and you cant have everyone play every week in FB. 10-12 is the sweet spot and long term vision is more important in realignment than short term dollars. Taking programs that can grow into money makers is more important than taking just one team who can make money right now.
08-29-2021 11:34 AM
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RE: Thamel: Big 12 should go to 16
It’s going to be either 10 or 12.

My current favorites are: BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF.

By adding only one Florida team outside the footprint you’re following the old Big East model and keeping that school a notch above the others. UCF has been putting forth and better product and has made some great coaching hires.

I could see a little pushback on Houston, but the fact remains the Big XII has been consistent in keeping a large presence in Texas with four schools. Houston gets in over SMU because it’s in a different area of the republic and they’ve been putting forth a better product.
08-29-2021 12:17 PM
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