(07-21-2021 04:19 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 03:15 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  ... The real issue could be further poaching by the Pac12. I dont think anyone else would poach any of the remaining pieces if the Pac-12 takes out Tech and Oklahoma St.

If the PAC-12 turned down Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, I think we can be confident that are not going to "poach" Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.

(07-21-2021 03:28 PM)JRsec Wrote:  ... I've been telling folks for 9 years it was likely and all I ever got in return was fan think, UT will never follow Aggy. Texas hates the SEC. OU prefers the B1G, and you know a good bit of that was likely true, ...

But, to unravel those, OU can prefer the Big Ten all it wants, despite all of the booster side headaches it would bring ... but if the Big Ten says OU and Texas or no dice, and Texas says no, not enough games in Texas, then OU is not going to be the wallflower at the school dance, it's going to do down to the next preference on its list.

And as discussed just recently over on the P5 board, Texas cannot keep Oklahoma out of the SEC. It cannot "punish" Oklahoma by cancelling the RRR ... it would be cutting off its nose to spite its face.

As far as "never following Aggie", that is very much a booster kind of sentiment ... it seems like the higher tiers in the University of Texas could say with a straight face they are "we are not following anybody, we are going to the SEC with our rival Oklahoma."

As far as not wanting to go to the SEC ... I believe they probably don't. But by the same token, they also don't want to be in a conference seen as "the Little Ten". If Oklahoma is going to go with them or without them, it's up to them to decide whether going to the SEC or staying in the diminished Big 12 is the better option for them.

That said, the idea that this is something Texas A&M learned was going on, and knowing that they couldn't stop it on their own, they leaked it in hopes that someone else could put a stop to it ... there's a lot of plausibility there.

To be fair---when that happened the Pac12 had just signed a new TV deal that was the highest in the land and the Pac-12 Network was soon going to be paying them tons of cash. In fact---they had just come inches from swiping Texas and Oklahoma from the Big12. Now--a decade later, the Pac12 rarely makes the playoffs, makes less per team than Big-12 teams, and is seen as weakest conference of the P5. Its true, neither OSU or TT are quite up to the Pac-12 lofty academic standards---but if the Pac12 is ever going to pick up new territories to the east for their Pac-12 Network---they would now know Texas isnt coming. Tech and OSU are the best proxies for UT and OU.

(07-21-2021 04:06 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 04:00 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 03:43 PM)micahandme Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 03:34 PM)schmolik Wrote:  I can't speak for the Big 10 but if Oklahoma and Texas do go to the SEC and I were in charge of the Big 10, I'm not going to bail out Iowa State, Kansas, or anyone else in the Big 12 and I have no need to expand to 16 just to keep up with the SEC. Adding two extra members means cutting the pie into two extra slices. If the two are Texas and Oklahoma, the pie gets bigger and the slices are still bigger overall. If the two are Iowa State and Kansas or any other Big 12 pair, the pie isn't likely going to get bigger and the slices overall will be smaller so why should the Big 10 add anyone? If FOX, ESPN, CBS, etc will offer us a proportional increase for two Big 12 members, I'll listen. Otherwise, no deal.

Agreed.

If the ACC is locked down and the Big Ten can't crack UVA or UNC free, there's no one even in the stratosphere of OU/UT for acadmics/sports.

What if the Big Ten countered the SEC move by landing Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina and Virginia?

That, IMO would not "match" what the SEC would have done. Texas and Oklahoma are valuable enough by themselves to carry a whole P5 conference. We know that because they do.

I would say that no three of the schools you mention above could do that. Arguably all four couldn't.

If this is true, the SEC should move very quickly to add Texas and OU. It's the biggest no-brainer ever.

Agree that such a Big Ten move to add four from the ACC wouldn't "match" the SEC's getting OU and UT (at least in terms of football). But it would be a strong counter punch with the addition of some excellent academics/hoops/states/etc. And Florida State and Clemson in football ... ain't bad.

Ugh. The rich get richer.

So if this were to occur, I think we'd see the SEC move to 4-team pods:

Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina
LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Texas A&M

None of the remaining power conferences (now the P4) make any moves. The Big 12 restocks with Cincinnati and UCF, the AAC restocks with UAB (or falls apart entirely), and CUSA stands pat. Boring realignment. Wasted opportunity.

(07-21-2021 04:54 PM)usffan Wrote:  I was told that this was impossible: https://csnbbs.com/thread-833387-post-14...id14794074

(11-18-2017 12:53 AM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  

(11-17-2017 06:14 PM)JRsec Wrote:  (lots of longwindedness snipped)

An announcement in 2023 for movement in 2025 doesn't require a vote and meets Big 12 guidelines. Even an announcement in 2021 for departure in 2023 doesn't leave a penalty too large for the departing to pay. And that kind of movement can happen with any number of schools.

the part in bold is 100% incorrect

the Big 12 has two contracts they have the GOR that ends at the same time the Big 12 TV contract ends and that has NO PROVISIONS FOR LEAVING THE CONFERENCE

the GOR has no notification requirement and it has no penalties and it has no option for giving advanced notification and or paying any amount of money to leave with media rights before te end of the contract and that is 100% by design

the Big 12 ALSO has a contract for conference membership that is 99 years in length from 2012 and that contract for conference membership DOES have a notification requirement and it has a penalty for leaving the conference, BUT it makes clear that giving that notification and paying that penalty does not exempt one from the GOR and it does not invalidate the GOR

and more importantly that Big 12 contract for conference membership requires that any member that is contacts OR IS CONTACTED by another party about leaving the conference is required to notify the conference of that contact within 12 days AND to formally submit a declining letter to that offer and failing to do so puts that member in violation of the contract for conference membership

so the REALITY is there is ZERO chance that 8 members of the Big 12 are all going to get together, all agree to go out and make contact with other conferences AND gain a guarantee to be admitted to those other conferences all within 12 days time

there will be SEVERAL of those members that will not be confident in the fact that they will get an offer from another conference that will be close to what they have in the Big 12 and they are not going to agree to COLLUDE to try and collapse the conference especially if they only LEGALLY have 12 days to do so before they MUST notify the conference or be subjected to legal recourse

and even IF it was possible that 8 of those members would agree to that it would still be next to impossible that they could all find a conference to admit them, get things squared away with that conference and the media partners AND do so within 12 days

and as soon as that 12 days passes and they do not make notification to the 2 members they are attempting to screw and leave behind they WILL absolutely be guilty of collusion and they will be restricted at that point on what votes and actions they can take dealing with the Big 12 and more importantly when it comes to the collusion when they get to court and it is proven that 8 members colluded to kill the conference and did so in violation of the rules calling for 12 days to notify the conference about ANY contact to switch conferences AND to LEGALLY DECLINE that offer well the ones that colluded will be subjected to treble damages

the Big 12 contract for conference membership calls for a forfeiture of the last two years of conference payouts for any member that is leaving which at the time of the final years of the GOR will be about $45 million per year or about $90 million per member leaving

even IF that could be negotiated down as it has been in the past the FACT is that if 8 teams get together and violate the 12 day rules of notification in the contract there is ZERO chance that the two remaining members are going to be looking to negotiate anything down and more importantly as soon as it is proven that the 12 day notification and DECLINE rule was violated AND that there was collusion on the part of 8 other members there would be ZERO reason for those members to negotiate anything down because with the collusion would come a near automatic treble damages or $270 million due per member that colluded to leave the conference and violated the 12 day notification and DECLINE requirement in the contract

there is a ZERO chance that you are going to have 8 conference members, several conferences and a couple of networks get together in 12 days work everything out and keep it a secret and after it goes past 12 days there is NO CHANCE that all involved are going to risk felony perjury to go to court and have all those people from all those organizations one after the other perjure themselves in court to say that "no we did not get together to collude to kill the conference and yes we did all that in fewer than 12 days"

so one can PRETEND that 8 teams in the Big 12 would agree to work together to either switch conferences in 12 days or less and one can pretend that they would actually make that happen in 12 days or less if those 8 teams agreed to that, but that is simply not going to happen

and one can pretend that when it takes longer than 12 days that several dozens of people will all get together and go to court and agree to testify that they got it all done in 12 days when they did not, but that will not happen either

and lastly one would be void of reality if they believed that two members of the Big 12 that were looking at getting $90 million in exit fees from the Big 12 and that have now proven collusion and are due 3X damages would work to negotiate that down "just because things like that happen"

no two members of the Big 12 that get screwed by 8 others in a collusion case that would be EASY to prove would have any reason to take less than the full $270 million PER OTHER MEMBER that colluded against them

and it is highly highly unlikely that any court would look at that easily proven case of collusion and the CLEAR contract language and reduce those 3X damages because there are not courts out there anywhere that view collusion fondly or as "something to negotiate away"

so again it is VERY CLEAR in the 99 year Big 12 contract for conference membership that any team that is contracted or makes contact to ANYONE about leaving the Big 12 has 12 days to notify the conference AND to decline that overture

and failure to do so puts them in violation of that contract and subjected to penalties and limited conference participation in conference business

no one that is sane would believe that 8 members of the Big 12 would think they could ALL gain a SOLID LEGAL new conference membership in 12 days or that they would want to, believe they could or that they actually would get away with colluding to violate that 12 day notification AND DECLINE requirement

the fact is there would be a ton of $35,000 to $45,000 a year people involved in that from multiple organizations and many of them are going to be smart enough to know that annual pay is not worth getting a felony perjury charge and then how would it be possible to make contracts with conferences and TV partners and falsify the dates on those contracts so it appears everything was done in 12 days or less

and when you have publicly traded TV partners well there are even more laws with the SEC (Securities Exchange not the SEC SEC SEC) and general business laws that would but a lot of people in serious legal jeopardy if they were trying to falsify the dates that legal contracts were signed so that when those contracts were brought to court it appeared as though they were all completed in a 12 day window even though they were actually finalized weeks or months later

one needs their head examined if they think that university presidents and inside and outside legal counsel are going to look at a 12 day notice tell the Big 12 about ANY contact to switch conferences AND TO DECLINE THAT CONTACT LEGALLY and they will think "yea lets get with 7 other Big 12 members and several conferences and some TV partners and just ignore that 12 day rule as a group of 8 while we leave two other members screwed and yea we can just negotiate away that $90 million in exit fees and the triple damages for collusion and skate by on all the perjury charges as well I think we can pull that off in secret the risk is well worth it"

all the more so when at least 4 of those members would be thinking they have little chance of finding a new home that is worth a damn and at least a couple of them would have to think they were being set up to be screwed as well

USFFan

The details are in the longwindedness and look who I was arguing with. Enough hot air for a balloon race. And it seems I may have been right!

I remember when news of UConn's return to the Big East was broken by Digital Sports Desk. This has the same type of feel to it.

I guess Presidents, ADs, Donors and Insiders are much more secretive in today's world and choosing not to meet in airports. Either that, or these decisions come together really quickly.

What a boom that would be for the SEC. Biggest realignment addition ever, easily.

I wonder if the SEC would be okay with the adding Texas Tech and Oklahoma St. if that meant locking in Texas and Oklahoma? With 18 teams, the SEC could split into 2 9-team divisions like this:

East:
Alabama
Auburn
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Missouri
South Carolina
Tennessee
Vanderbilt

West:
Arkansas
LSU
Ole Miss
Mississippi St.
Oklahoma
Oklahoma St.
Texas
Texas A&M
Texas Tech

Another option would be to add an ACC school or West Virigina rather than Texas Tech and place them in the east to shift Missouri west and avoid splitting up the Mississippi schools.

I miss Todge's manic run-on sentences and unnecessarily aggressive tone and weird, sometimes offensive "verbal" tics ("SEC SEC SEC", "Dem Coogs Doh", etc.).

(07-21-2021 05:02 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  I remember when news of UConn's return to the Big East was broken by Dogital Sports Desk. This has the same type of feel to it.

Yes. Both times, it quietly came out of nowhere when no one was expecting it.

(07-21-2021 04:58 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Ugh. The rich get richer.

So if this were to occur, I think we'd see the SEC move to 4-team pods:

Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina
LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Texas A&M

None of the remaining power conferences (now the P4) make any moves. The Big 12 restocks with Cincinnati and UCF, the AAC restocks with UAB (or falls apart entirely), and CUSA stands pat. Boring realignment. Wasted opportunity.

This or drop the divisions and add another conference game.
3 permanent rivals + 6 rotating teams.

Alabama = Auburn, Tennessee, Mississippi State
Arkansas = LSU, Texas A&M, Texas
Auburn = Alabama, Georgia, Florida
Florida = Georgia, South Carolina, Auburn
Georgia = Florida, Auburn, South Carolina
Kentucky = South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
LSU = Arkansas, Mississippi State, Ole Miss
Mississippi State = Ole Miss, LSU, Alabama
Missouri = Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt
Oklahoma = Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M
Ole Miss = Mississippi State, Missouri, LSU
South Carolina = Kentucky, Florida, Georgia
Tennessee = Vanderbilt, Alabama, Kentucky
Texas = Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Arkansas
Texas A&M = Texas, Arkansas, Oklahoma
Vanderbilt = Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri

P.S. I don't see any of this happening ha

(07-21-2021 05:03 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  I miss Todge's manic run-on sentences

He'd have posts with - no exaggeration - 42 paragraphs without any periods or commas.

(07-21-2021 05:03 PM)GoBuckeyes1047 Wrote:  I wonder if the SEC would be okay with the adding Texas Tech and Oklahoma St. if that meant locking in Texas and Oklahoma? With 18 teams, the SEC could split into 2 9-team divisions like this:

East:
Alabama
Auburn
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Missouri
South Carolina
Tennessee
Vanderbilt

West:
Arkansas
LSU
Ole Miss
Mississippi St.
Oklahoma
Oklahoma St.
Texas
Texas A&M
Texas Tech

Another option would be to add an ACC school or West Virigina rather than Texas Tech and place them in the east to shift Missouri west and avoid splitting up the Mississippi schools.

I don't think it makes financial sense for the SEC to add anybody else from the Big 12. Those teams just don't move the needle enough and with the addition of OK and UT, they will already have those TV markets.

(07-21-2021 04:25 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 04:10 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 04:04 PM)SouthernBoiNOLA Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 03:57 PM)solohawks Wrote:  If this happens and I'm the Big 12 left with 8 team, I go for the jugular against the PAC

I tell USC, UCLA, CAL, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, and Arizona to come play in our new Big 16 sandbox

If I were those schools, there is no way I would leave the PAC for the Big 12. I don't see the Big 12 being a Power COnference for much longer after TX and OK leave. They would be basically on par with the American.

It comes down to, if you were USC, UCLA, CAL, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, and Arizona who would you rather play and who would offer the most TV money

would it be more profitable to play:
Washington St, Oregon St, Arizona St, and Utah
OR
TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma St, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, WVU

Um, the former, without even thinking about it. Those are west coast rivals of many decades back. OTOH, who in Los Angeles or San Francisco wants to see their teams play conference games in Kansas, Oklahoma or West Virginia?

Considering it would be divisional play the interdivison schedule would be only 2 games.

The arrangement would be about which alignment could secure a better TV deal

A 12 team West Coast only confernce or a 16 team confernce spanning the nation

(07-21-2021 04:54 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 04:19 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 03:15 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  ... The real issue could be further poaching by the Pac12. I dont think anyone else would poach any of the remaining pieces if the Pac-12 takes out Tech and Oklahoma St.

If the PAC-12 turned down Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, I think we can be confident that are not going to "poach" Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.

(07-21-2021 03:28 PM)JRsec Wrote:  ... I've been telling folks for 9 years it was likely and all I ever got in return was fan think, UT will never follow Aggy. Texas hates the SEC. OU prefers the B1G, and you know a good bit of that was likely true, ...

But, to unravel those, OU can prefer the Big Ten all it wants, despite all of the booster side headaches it would bring ... but if the Big Ten says OU and Texas or no dice, and Texas says no, not enough games in Texas, then OU is not going to be the wallflower at the school dance, it's going to do down to the next preference on its list.

And as discussed just recently over on the P5 board, Texas cannot keep Oklahoma out of the SEC. It cannot "punish" Oklahoma by cancelling the RRR ... it would be cutting off its nose to spite its face.

As far as "never following Aggie", that is very much a booster kind of sentiment ... it seems like the higher tiers in the University of Texas could say with a straight face they are "we are not following anybody, we are going to the SEC with our rival Oklahoma."

As far as not wanting to go to the SEC ... I believe they probably don't. But by the same token, they also don't want to be in a conference seen as "the Little Ten". If Oklahoma is going to go with them or without them, it's up to them to decide whether going to the SEC or staying in the diminished Big 12 is the better option for them.

That said, the idea that this is something Texas A&M learned was going on, and knowing that they couldn't stop it on their own, they leaked it in hopes that someone else could put a stop to it ... there's a lot of plausibility there.

To be fair---when that happened the Pac12 had just signed a new TV deal that was the highest in the land and the Pac-12 Network was soon going to be paying them tons of cash. In fact---they had just come inches from swiping Texas and Oklahoma from the Big12. Now--a decade later, the Pac12 rarely makes the playoffs, makes less per team than Big-12 teams, and is seen as weakest conference of the P5. Its true, neither OSU or TT are quite up to the Pac-12 lofty academic standards---but if the Pac12 is ever going to pick up new territories to the east for their Pac-12 Network---they would now know Texas isnt coming. Tech and OSU are the best proxies for UT and OU.

A lot has changed since the David Boren pitch to the PAC to add OU/OSU, most importantly OU would be off limits.

Texas Tech and Oklahoma St don't seem as natural of a rival package though as TT & TCU where both schools are in state and lean west.

Utah then could slide from PAC South to PAC North with everyone else having the same divisional alignments. That would make the south look more south than it does right now.

Then again the pie may not be big enough to justify adding TT/TCU. TCU only got into the XII because it needed the extra member for the TV contract. I'm not sure if they are strong enough to warrant expanding the PAC TV contract for.

(07-21-2021 05:07 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 05:03 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  I miss Todge's manic run-on sentences

He'd have posts with - no exaggeration - 42 paragraphs without any periods or commas.

And at least one racial slur directed at the University of Houston

(07-21-2021 04:58 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Ugh. The rich get richer.

So if this were to occur, I think we'd see the SEC move to 4-team pods:

Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina
LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Texas A&M

None of the remaining power conferences (now the P4) make any moves. The Big 12 restocks with Cincinnati and UCF, the AAC restocks with UAB (or falls apart entirely), and CUSA stands pat. Boring realignment. Wasted opportunity.

If they do rotating pods, that line up makes the sense.

As far as the Big 12 restock goes, I think your 6 top players are:

Houston
UCF
Cincinnati
USF
BYU
Memphis

I suspect they will keep things small and stick with 9 or 10 members.

The American survives but only restocks to 10 members.

By sheer coincidence, ESPN.com this week has an article about the destabilization of Big East football.

Coincidence.

Kirk Bohls
@kbohls
I'm told Texas A&M and Missouri would be a hard no. Only 2 more needed to block an invitation to Texas, OU.

https://twitter.com/kbohls/status/1417969714878468101

JR's A&M sabotage theory is a possibility. OTOH, A&M and Mizzou are the new kids on the block, and won't have any say in the matter.

(07-21-2021 05:17 PM)johnintx Wrote:  Kirk Bohls
@kbohls
I'm told Texas A&M and Missouri would be a hard no. Only 2 more needed to block an invitation to Texas, OU.

https://twitter.com/kbohls/status/1417969714878468101

JR's A&M sabotage theory is a possibility. OTOH, A&M and Mizzou are the new kids on the block, and won't have any say in the matter.

Why would they have no say? They are voting members of the SEC. I thought you needed a 3/4 vote - that's 11 of the 14 meaning you need 4 to block as if that would happen.

(07-21-2021 04:07 PM)Jeff Smithers Wrote:  ESPN and Fox both recently declined early tv negotiations with the Big 12. Makes you wonder if financial figures were discussed and how low of an offer the Big 12 received.

This leak could just be a play to end the equal revenue sharing amongst Big 12 members so Texas and Oklahoma receive a greater share that they deserve. Or maybe it's to get the B1G to agree to equal revenue sharing starting day 1 rather than the 6 year waiting period. Or maybe those SEC $$$'s are just too good to pass up.

I wonder if E$PN would feel about paying the SEC when they have a member or members filing a lawsuit against E$PN for breach of contract???

Sent from my moto g(7) power using Tapatalk

(07-21-2021 05:13 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 04:58 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Ugh. The rich get richer.

So if this were to occur, I think we'd see the SEC move to 4-team pods:

Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina
LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Texas A&M

None of the remaining power conferences (now the P4) make any moves. The Big 12 restocks with Cincinnati and UCF, the AAC restocks with UAB (or falls apart entirely), and CUSA stands pat. Boring realignment. Wasted opportunity.

If they do rotating pods, that line up makes the sense.

As far as the Big 12 restock goes, I think your 6 top players are:

Houston
UCF
Cincinnati
USF
BYU
Memphis

I suspect they will keep things small and stick with 9 or 10 members.

The American survives but only restocks to 10 members.

XII adding Houston is the best way to get back at Texas for leaving.

Going all the way back to 12 is possible. Houston, SMU, Memphis and Cincinnati.

The AAC is going to take a big hit. Who is going to join Wichita, Tulsa, Tulane, UCF, USF, ECU and Temple in a conference? Travel with those 7 is terrible. Wichita can go back to the MVC or join the MWC. The MWC would be a stronger football conference moving forward at that point.