(07-21-2021 03:15 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  ... The real issue could be further poaching by the Pac12. I dont think anyone else would poach any of the remaining pieces if the Pac-12 takes out Tech and Oklahoma St.

If the PAC-12 turned down Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, I think we can be confident that are not going to "poach" Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.

(07-21-2021 03:28 PM)JRsec Wrote:  ... I've been telling folks for 9 years it was likely and all I ever got in return was fan think, UT will never follow Aggy. Texas hates the SEC. OU prefers the B1G, and you know a good bit of that was likely true, ...

But, to unravel those, OU can prefer the Big Ten all it wants, despite all of the booster side headaches it would bring ... but if the Big Ten says OU and Texas or no dice, and Texas says no, not enough games in Texas, then OU is not going to be the wallflower at the school dance, it's going to do down to the next preference on its list.

And as discussed just recently over on the P5 board, Texas cannot keep Oklahoma out of the SEC. It cannot "punish" Oklahoma by cancelling the RRR ... it would be cutting off its nose to spite its face.

As far as "never following Aggie", that is very much a booster kind of sentiment ... it seems like the higher tiers in the University of Texas could say with a straight face they are "we are not following anybody, we are going to the SEC with our rival Oklahoma."

As far as not wanting to go to the SEC ... I believe they probably don't. But by the same token, they also don't want to be in a conference seen as "the Little Ten". If Oklahoma is going to go with them or without them, it's up to them to decide whether going to the SEC or staying in the diminished Big 12 is the better option for them.

That said, the idea that this is something Texas A&M learned was going on, and knowing that they couldn't stop it on their own, they leaked it in hopes that someone else could put a stop to it ... there's a lot of plausibility there.

(07-21-2021 03:28 PM)Wedge Wrote:  ... So, *if* UT and OU jumped to the SEC, what would make the most sense is the Big 12 adding 2 or 4 teams out of the group of Air Force, Boise State, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, UCF, USF. Strategically, the Big 12's best move would be to add 4 from the AAC (or Boise plus 3 from the AAC) so that the football gap between the "new" Big 12 on the one hand and the MWC or the AAC remainders on the other hand is as large as possible. ...

However, commercially, the sensible move is to add two for the balance of the current contract, and only add two more going into the new contract if the media advice is that there are two that can be added that increases the average value of the inventory per school.

Do Texas Tech, TCU, and Baylor want a fourth Texas / former SWC school, or do the trio in the "Little Ten" can overshadow the Go5 school in Texas without any additional help. If they want a fourth Texas / former SWC school, it seems like Oklahoma State, Kansas and Kansas State would see a benefit in playing in Texas twice a season and would go along with it. So based on that, Houston is either in or out.

Then that decides whether there is one more immediate chair available or two, and the internal boardroom fight starts from there. The College Football News ranking of football programs in the AAC over 2017-2020 lists them as:
1. Memphis
2. Temple
3. Houston
4. UCF
5. Navy
6. UC
7. SMU
8. USF
9. Tulane
10. Tulsa
11. ECU

If anything like the 2020/21 NCAA NET is repeated this year, with Houston ending in the top 20 and Memphis ending in the top 40, it starts to look like Houston and Memphis as the natural picks for the two replacements, and Boise State, BYU, UC and UCF fighting over the last two spots if they should open up later.

The details were buried in the SI piece yesterday about Sankey and the NCAA when the piece said the SEC's new deal would be worth about half a billion. If you do the math even at $475 million that's a payout of 76 million per school, which was higher than CEO and advertiser for Disney and Coca Cola said when he thought final payouts would hit around 72-3 million and would top out closer to 400 million than 300. But if you add 2 schools to the SEC's deal that's 150 million more than 450 million and would account for Thompson's target amount at 73 million when at pro rata.

So it makes sense.

The little brother issue has always been a concern with either Texas or Oklahoma changing conferences. I don't think it matters - but could the democrat walkout in Texas actually help them leave Tech/Baylor/TCU behind? The democrats in the Texas legislature are not likely to return from DC in the next several weeks.

Have to think Oklahoma would still have to play OSU yearly, but I'm not sure they'd be able to leave them behind in a weaker conference due to politics either.

Divisionless format with a few permament rivals, and keeping only 8 games played in conference would seem to be very crucial to this as well with how many East teams have a yearly rival in the ACC they have to play.

(07-21-2021 04:10 PM)solohawks Wrote:  It comes down to, if you were USC, UCLA, CAL, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, and Arizona who would you rather play and who would offer the most TV money

would it be more profitable to play:
Washington St, Oregon St, Arizona St, and Utah
OR
TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma St, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, WVU

The former is status quo while the latter opens up a whole new timezone and TV opportunity.

While its not the PAC 16 Larry Scott envisioned, I think it would better help keep pace with the Big 10 and SEC. With the need for the Rose Bowl dying in an expanded college football playoff, why isolate yourself to the west coast?

Arizona St is the most valuable of these 12 schools. So while the 8 XII schools might be more valuable than WSU/OSU, the PAC schools would probably just stick with splitting it 12 ways and keeping ASU over splitting it 16 ways and losing ASU.

(07-21-2021 04:10 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 04:04 PM)SouthernBoiNOLA Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 03:57 PM)solohawks Wrote:  If this happens and I'm the Big 12 left with 8 team, I go for the jugular against the PAC

I tell USC, UCLA, CAL, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, and Arizona to come play in our new Big 16 sandbox

If I were those schools, there is no way I would leave the PAC for the Big 12. I don't see the Big 12 being a Power COnference for much longer after TX and OK leave. They would be basically on par with the American.

It comes down to, if you were USC, UCLA, CAL, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, and Arizona who would you rather play and who would offer the most TV money

would it be more profitable to play:
Washington St, Oregon St, Arizona St, and Utah
OR
TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma St, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, WVU

Um, the former, without even thinking about it. Those are west coast rivals of many decades back. OTOH, who in Los Angeles or San Francisco wants to see their teams play conference games in Kansas, Oklahoma or West Virginia?

(07-21-2021 04:00 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 03:43 PM)micahandme Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 03:34 PM)schmolik Wrote:  I can't speak for the Big 10 but if Oklahoma and Texas do go to the SEC and I were in charge of the Big 10, I'm not going to bail out Iowa State, Kansas, or anyone else in the Big 12 and I have no need to expand to 16 just to keep up with the SEC. Adding two extra members means cutting the pie into two extra slices. If the two are Texas and Oklahoma, the pie gets bigger and the slices are still bigger overall. If the two are Iowa State and Kansas or any other Big 12 pair, the pie isn't likely going to get bigger and the slices overall will be smaller so why should the Big 10 add anyone? If FOX, ESPN, CBS, etc will offer us a proportional increase for two Big 12 members, I'll listen. Otherwise, no deal.

Agreed.

If the ACC is locked down and the Big Ten can't crack UVA or UNC free, there's no one even in the stratosphere of OU/UT for acadmics/sports.

What if the Big Ten countered the SEC move by landing Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina and Virginia?

Doesn't that still fall under the category of "ACC is locked down"?

But assuming the ACC isn't locked down, that would be a mammoth move for the Big 10 but not the same category as OU/UT to the SEC.

Philip: what does voting rights have to do with conference alignment?!

(07-21-2021 03:46 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 03:33 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 03:28 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 03:01 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  I would presume the XII backfills to 10 (Cincinnati, Houston) or goes to 12 (BYU, Central Florida) but its more fun to speculate how the XII dissolves.

B1G + Iowa St, Kansas
PAC + Kansas St, Oklahoma St, TCU, Texas Tech
ACC + Cincinnati, West Virginia
AAC - Cincinnati + Baylor, BYU (football)

None of the above.

No conference that doesn't lose members is going to add new members unless each current member gets a huge stack of new money as a result of the additions.

So, *if* UT and OU jumped to the SEC, what would make the most sense is the Big 12 adding 2 or 4 teams out of the group of Air Force, Boise State, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, UCF, USF. Strategically, the Big 12's best move would be to add 4 from the AAC (or Boise plus 3 from the AAC) so that the football gap between the "new" Big 12 on the one hand and the MWC or the AAC remainders on the other hand is as large as possible.

For the other "P" conferences, what would make the most sense is doing nothing.

The other thing to keep in mind is if the B12 takes the best properties out of the AAC, the AAC media deal will go in the toilet. It will also result in some other realignment downstream (CUSA, SBC).

Yup. The Big-12 rump would become kind a very low level "Big East 2011" type power conference. Honestly, if they only lose Texas and Oklahoma, I might suggest they just add BYU and stand pat at 9. Thats still a conference that compares favorably to the old Big East. It wont get ACC money---but they will get substantially more than an AAC type deal. Where the Big-12 gets in Big trouble is if the Pac-12 poaches Texas Tech and Oklahoma St. At that point, its more like an upgraded AAC.

Joining the XII rump is still more attractive for AAC members as its a autonomy conference.

SEC (OU, UT)
PAC (OSU, TT)
XII (SMU, Houston, Memphis, UC)
MWC (Tulsa, Rice)
MAC (Temple, Marshall)
CUSA (Tulane, ECU)
IND (Navy, UCF, USF)
MVC (Wichita St)

If the AAC can't get at least a $3 million dollar per school TV deal post realignment I think its toast.

(07-21-2021 04:10 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 04:04 PM)SouthernBoiNOLA Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 03:57 PM)solohawks Wrote:  If this happens and I'm the Big 12 left with 8 team, I go for the jugular against the PAC

I tell USC, UCLA, CAL, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, and Arizona to come play in our new Big 16 sandbox

If I were those schools, there is no way I would leave the PAC for the Big 12. I don't see the Big 12 being a Power COnference for much longer after TX and OK leave. They would be basically on par with the American.

It comes down to, if you were USC, UCLA, CAL, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, and Arizona who would you rather play and who would offer the most TV money

would it be more profitable to play:
Washington St, Oregon St, Arizona St, and Utah
OR
TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma St, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, WVU

The former is status quo while the latter opens up a whole new timezone and TV opportunity.

While its not the PAC 16 Larry Scott envisioned, I think it would better help keep pace with the Big 10 and SEC. With the need for the Rose Bowl dying in an expanded college football playoff, why isolate yourself to the west coast?

Problem is that if UT/OK leave, they take the Power Conference and Power Conference type TV money with them. There is no way anybody would give 20 mil to the Big 12 without their Big Guns. You can bet that the day after they leave, the renegotiations on the BIG12's TV contract begins. They will probably get their contract knocked down to the 10 Million dollar range, and that would be to big a pay cut for those PAC teams to leave.

(07-21-2021 03:09 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  SEC to 16 and I presume the B1G/PAC will try to do the same.

SEC (Texas, OU)
B1G (Kansas, Virginia)
PAC (OSU, TT, TCU, Baylor)
ACC (WVU)
XII (SMU, Cincinnati, Memphis, Houston Tulane, Tulsa) join KSU/ISU in 8 team conference.

The PAC would never take those schools without Texas. I doubt Baylor would be included in any realignment scenario with the history of rapes and sexual assaults.

(07-21-2021 04:29 PM)SouthernBoiNOLA Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 04:10 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 04:04 PM)SouthernBoiNOLA Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 03:57 PM)solohawks Wrote:  If this happens and I'm the Big 12 left with 8 team, I go for the jugular against the PAC

I tell USC, UCLA, CAL, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, and Arizona to come play in our new Big 16 sandbox

If I were those schools, there is no way I would leave the PAC for the Big 12. I don't see the Big 12 being a Power COnference for much longer after TX and OK leave. They would be basically on par with the American.

It comes down to, if you were USC, UCLA, CAL, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, and Arizona who would you rather play and who would offer the most TV money

would it be more profitable to play:
Washington St, Oregon St, Arizona St, and Utah
OR
TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma St, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, WVU

The former is status quo while the latter opens up a whole new timezone and TV opportunity.

While its not the PAC 16 Larry Scott envisioned, I think it would better help keep pace with the Big 10 and SEC. With the need for the Rose Bowl dying in an expanded college football playoff, why isolate yourself to the west coast?

Problem is that if UT/OK leave, they take the Power Conference and Power Conference type TV money with them. There is no way anybody would give 20 mil to the Big 12 without their Big Guns. You can bet that the day after they leave, the renegotiations on the BIG12's TV contract begins. They will probably get their contract knocked down to the 10 Million dollar range, and that would be to big a pay cut for those PAC teams to leave.

Please make it so. Big 12 dissolution has to happen.

(07-21-2021 04:22 PM)Phlipper33 Wrote:  The little brother issue has always been a concern with either Texas or Oklahoma changing conferences. I don't think it matters - but could the democrat walkout in Texas actually help them leave Tech/Baylor/TCU behind? The democrats in the Texas legislature are not likely to return from DC in the next several weeks.

Have to think Oklahoma would still have to play OSU yearly, but I'm not sure they'd be able to leave them behind in a weaker conference due to politics either.

Divisionless format with a few permament rivals, and keeping only 8 games played in conference would seem to be very crucial to this as well with how many East teams have a yearly rival in the ACC they have to play.

I doubt its a factor.

What is more a factor is the XII is an autonomy conference and will continue to be one once Texas and OU leave. They still have "club" membership and would have that moving forward if the P5 decide to leave the NCAA ranks.

(07-21-2021 04:19 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 03:15 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  ... The real issue could be further poaching by the Pac12. I dont think anyone else would poach any of the remaining pieces if the Pac-12 takes out Tech and Oklahoma St.

If the PAC-12 turned down Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, I think we can be confident that are not going to "poach" Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.

Yes, it's amazing how people here really are clueless about these teams.

Look for SMU to pop up somewhere. They got money and paying players is legal.

(07-21-2021 04:27 PM)Erictelevision Wrote:  Philip: what does voting rights have to do with conference alignment?!

Nothing, but the legislature could theoritically pressure UT into staying with Tech by threatening to withhold funding. But without the legislature in session that would be impossible. I believe the pressure in the 90s was more from the governor and lieutenant governor though, I'm not sure how much pressure the legislature could actually do while in session. As long as the democrats are outside of state lines, there cannot be a quorom in the state house so no bills could go through which means they can't pressure at all currently.

Damn, what a time for this guy's Twitter to be dormant...

USFFan

(07-21-2021 04:22 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The details were buried in the SI piece yesterday about Sankey and the NCAA when the piece said the SEC's new deal would be worth about half a billion. If you do the math even at $475 million that's a payout of 76 million per school, which was higher than CEO and advertiser for Disney and Coca Cola said when he thought final payouts would hit around 72-3 million and would top out closer to 400 million than 300. But if you add 2 schools to the SEC's deal that's 150 million more than 450 million and would account for Thompson's target amount at 73 million when at pro rata.

So it makes sense.

You are right the numbers start to get too wide for UT/OU not to consider just moving to the SEC. Twenty years ago it wasn't as much the case between the XII and SEC.

(07-21-2021 04:36 PM)Claw Wrote:  Look for SMU to pop up somewhere. They got money and paying players is legal.

TCU/SMU could make a nice DFW backyard rivalry for the PAC. SMU doesn't have much in the way of fan support though.

TT/TCU might be the best 2 team combo for the PAC. PAC was not sure about Oklahoma State but they definitely want into Texas.

Well, nothing new is under the sun. We’re reverting back to the 1920’s and earlier with a giant southern conference. It’s really two conferences under one umbrella.

I’m not sure how this affects any other conference besides the Big XII because the only unaffiliated crown jewel is Notre Dame, and they’re locked in a contract with the ACC until ‘37.

Looks like Rice might make it into the American after all!!

BYU, Houston, SMU, and Cincinnati to the Big XII.

I was told that this was impossible: https://csnbbs.com/thread-833387-post-14...id14794074

(11-18-2017 12:53 AM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  

(11-17-2017 06:14 PM)JRsec Wrote:  (lots of longwindedness snipped)

An announcement in 2023 for movement in 2025 doesn't require a vote and meets Big 12 guidelines. Even an announcement in 2021 for departure in 2023 doesn't leave a penalty too large for the departing to pay. And that kind of movement can happen with any number of schools.

the part in bold is 100% incorrect

the Big 12 has two contracts they have the GOR that ends at the same time the Big 12 TV contract ends and that has NO PROVISIONS FOR LEAVING THE CONFERENCE

the GOR has no notification requirement and it has no penalties and it has no option for giving advanced notification and or paying any amount of money to leave with media rights before te end of the contract and that is 100% by design

the Big 12 ALSO has a contract for conference membership that is 99 years in length from 2012 and that contract for conference membership DOES have a notification requirement and it has a penalty for leaving the conference, BUT it makes clear that giving that notification and paying that penalty does not exempt one from the GOR and it does not invalidate the GOR

and more importantly that Big 12 contract for conference membership requires that any member that is contacts OR IS CONTACTED by another party about leaving the conference is required to notify the conference of that contact within 12 days AND to formally submit a declining letter to that offer and failing to do so puts that member in violation of the contract for conference membership

so the REALITY is there is ZERO chance that 8 members of the Big 12 are all going to get together, all agree to go out and make contact with other conferences AND gain a guarantee to be admitted to those other conferences all within 12 days time

there will be SEVERAL of those members that will not be confident in the fact that they will get an offer from another conference that will be close to what they have in the Big 12 and they are not going to agree to COLLUDE to try and collapse the conference especially if they only LEGALLY have 12 days to do so before they MUST notify the conference or be subjected to legal recourse

and even IF it was possible that 8 of those members would agree to that it would still be next to impossible that they could all find a conference to admit them, get things squared away with that conference and the media partners AND do so within 12 days

and as soon as that 12 days passes and they do not make notification to the 2 members they are attempting to screw and leave behind they WILL absolutely be guilty of collusion and they will be restricted at that point on what votes and actions they can take dealing with the Big 12 and more importantly when it comes to the collusion when they get to court and it is proven that 8 members colluded to kill the conference and did so in violation of the rules calling for 12 days to notify the conference about ANY contact to switch conferences AND to LEGALLY DECLINE that offer well the ones that colluded will be subjected to treble damages

the Big 12 contract for conference membership calls for a forfeiture of the last two years of conference payouts for any member that is leaving which at the time of the final years of the GOR will be about $45 million per year or about $90 million per member leaving

even IF that could be negotiated down as it has been in the past the FACT is that if 8 teams get together and violate the 12 day rules of notification in the contract there is ZERO chance that the two remaining members are going to be looking to negotiate anything down and more importantly as soon as it is proven that the 12 day notification and DECLINE rule was violated AND that there was collusion on the part of 8 other members there would be ZERO reason for those members to negotiate anything down because with the collusion would come a near automatic treble damages or $270 million due per member that colluded to leave the conference and violated the 12 day notification and DECLINE requirement in the contract

there is a ZERO chance that you are going to have 8 conference members, several conferences and a couple of networks get together in 12 days work everything out and keep it a secret and after it goes past 12 days there is NO CHANCE that all involved are going to risk felony perjury to go to court and have all those people from all those organizations one after the other perjure themselves in court to say that "no we did not get together to collude to kill the conference and yes we did all that in fewer than 12 days"

so one can PRETEND that 8 teams in the Big 12 would agree to work together to either switch conferences in 12 days or less and one can pretend that they would actually make that happen in 12 days or less if those 8 teams agreed to that, but that is simply not going to happen

and one can pretend that when it takes longer than 12 days that several dozens of people will all get together and go to court and agree to testify that they got it all done in 12 days when they did not, but that will not happen either

and lastly one would be void of reality if they believed that two members of the Big 12 that were looking at getting $90 million in exit fees from the Big 12 and that have now proven collusion and are due 3X damages would work to negotiate that down "just because things like that happen"

no two members of the Big 12 that get screwed by 8 others in a collusion case that would be EASY to prove would have any reason to take less than the full $270 million PER OTHER MEMBER that colluded against them

and it is highly highly unlikely that any court would look at that easily proven case of collusion and the CLEAR contract language and reduce those 3X damages because there are not courts out there anywhere that view collusion fondly or as "something to negotiate away"

so again it is VERY CLEAR in the 99 year Big 12 contract for conference membership that any team that is contracted or makes contact to ANYONE about leaving the Big 12 has 12 days to notify the conference AND to decline that overture

and failure to do so puts them in violation of that contract and subjected to penalties and limited conference participation in conference business

no one that is sane would believe that 8 members of the Big 12 would think they could ALL gain a SOLID LEGAL new conference membership in 12 days or that they would want to, believe they could or that they actually would get away with colluding to violate that 12 day notification AND DECLINE requirement

the fact is there would be a ton of $35,000 to $45,000 a year people involved in that from multiple organizations and many of them are going to be smart enough to know that annual pay is not worth getting a felony perjury charge and then how would it be possible to make contracts with conferences and TV partners and falsify the dates on those contracts so it appears everything was done in 12 days or less

and when you have publicly traded TV partners well there are even more laws with the SEC (Securities Exchange not the SEC SEC SEC) and general business laws that would but a lot of people in serious legal jeopardy if they were trying to falsify the dates that legal contracts were signed so that when those contracts were brought to court it appeared as though they were all completed in a 12 day window even though they were actually finalized weeks or months later

one needs their head examined if they think that university presidents and inside and outside legal counsel are going to look at a 12 day notice tell the Big 12 about ANY contact to switch conferences AND TO DECLINE THAT CONTACT LEGALLY and they will think "yea lets get with 7 other Big 12 members and several conferences and some TV partners and just ignore that 12 day rule as a group of 8 while we leave two other members screwed and yea we can just negotiate away that $90 million in exit fees and the triple damages for collusion and skate by on all the perjury charges as well I think we can pull that off in secret the risk is well worth it"

all the more so when at least 4 of those members would be thinking they have little chance of finding a new home that is worth a damn and at least a couple of them would have to think they were being set up to be screwed as well

USFFan