(05-13-2021 03:39 PM)GoOwls111 Wrote: One thing to keep in mind... I Believe that 16 is too many, at that point the only croos division game will be the CCG... The A-5 will become the A-6 (AAC) and the G4 will become the G6 with the addition of the WAC and the A-Sun... Financially there will be very little change, % wise, from current $$$ but there will be a new level of D-1 Football.
A few teams may move, but no one is going to 16.
You spoke of the WAC and A-Sun moving up to FBS, but where would the 6 FBS independents end up in that scenario?
-- out in the cold?
-- better off than they are now?
Also, while there has been a lot of chatter about schools that
might be next to make the jump, the two schools that seem to be considered to have the best shot at making the FCS to FBS have made it clear that they like their situation just fine as it is right now.
NDSU is in no position to make the jump unless/until one of the G5 conferences offers them a big enough paycheck to cover all their travel expenses and then some.
James Madison's leadership has expressed extreme reservations and concerns about the harm that may come to that university if it takes the risk of jumping to FBS and then getting burned. Apparently, neither they nor NDSU has a large enough endowment to take such a gamble.
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Is it likely that the G5 will expand to G6 within the next decade, assuming that the AAC is still a G5 in 2022?
Perhaps, but here's what it would take:
1. Some of the FBS independents would have to sign on or help to set up the next conference.
--The most likely ones would probably be those in the northeastern quadrang of the nation: UConn, UMass, Army, and Liberty. However, UConn and Army would probably only join as FB members, and it's not clear if any of these schools would want to be in the same conference as Liberty.
--So that means that either Liberty or UMass, if not both, would be the most likely FBS independents to help set up a new FBS conference.
--Could they persuade James Madison to join? Probably. JMU mainly needs someone to shepherd them along. Could they get UConn and/or Army to join as FB members? They could probably get UConn.
--So what have they got then? Even if they can persuade JMU, maybe two or three full members and one FB-only member.
--What about BYU and New Mexico State? BYU would almost certainly reject the idea. New Mexico State might consider joining as a FB-only member, but they probably couldn't afford the travel costs for full membership.
--Ok - that leaves them with 2 or 3 full members and perhaps 2 FB only members. That's still an awfully long way from a minimum of 8 FB and BB schools.
--Now, there are some other schools that are considering a move up:
----Jacksonville State seems most keen to join the club.
----Sam Houston State has appeared on a lot of lists, for example:
https://www.si.com/college/oklahoma/foot...-look-like
----Southern Illinois has been discussed quite a bit.
----Florida A&M has given the idea serious consideration.
Others (very iffy):
----Delaware (strong FCS program) but doesn't seem interested.
----Eastern Washington
----U. Texas Arlington (reboot)
----Mentioned but little or no interest: URI, Richmond, ...
----Youngstown State (OH)
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Of these, the schools that are west of the Mississippi would have to be considered a long shot, at best, from the standpoint of Liberty and James Madison, for example, if they were to try to make this happen.
Let's imagine the best case scenario for an eastern FBS or mid-eastern FBS conference if every school on the list were to accept an invitation:
1. Liberty
2. James Madison
3. Delaware
4. Youngstown State
5. Southern Illinois
6. Jacksonville State
7. Florida A&M
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UMass (FB only) Would not want to leave the Atlantic 10
Rhode Island (FB only) Would not want to leave the Atlantic 10
Richmond (FB only) Would not want to leave the Atlantic 10
UConn (FB only) Wouldn't leave the BE.
Army (FB only) Doesn't join but affiliates like ND affiliates with the ACC
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There would be more than enough - 10, 11, or 12 schools - for a new FBS football conference.
However, the only way the 7 full members could establish a sanctioned D1 all-sports conference would be to go with a hybrid model like the Big East was when it had highly different sets of BB, FB, and all-sports members.
That would involve persuading 3 D1 schools to leave their current conferences and join the new conference as BB/olympic members.
That wouldn't be easy, but perhaps the schools in the CAA (Delaware, and JMU could persuade Towson and Hofstra and Drexel to join as BB/olympic members.
Or better still, perhaps Delaware and James Madison would convince the CAA to expand into a hybrid FBS conference (much like the original Big East did), with every current CAA member, including Delaware and JMU remaining in the CAA, but accepting all the FB schools into the CAA as full (BB/olympic/FB) members.
Then, you'd be looking at a hybrid conference like this:
"The (FBS) Colonial Athletic Association:"
BB/Olympic Members (considered (potential) "full" members):
1. College of Charleston
2. Delaware
3. Drexel
4. Eton
5. Hofstra
6. JMU
7. Northeastern
8. Towson
9. UNC Wilmington
10. College of William & Mary
11. Liberty - if they wish to switch BB/olympic to the CAA
12. Youngstown State - if they wish to switch BB/olympic to the CAA
13. Southern Illinois - if they wish to switch BB/olympic to the CAA
14. Jacksonville State - if they wish to switch BB/olympic to the CAA
15. Florida A&M - if they wish to switch BB/olympic to the CAA
Football-Only Affiliates with no interest in switching:
UMass (FB only) Would not want to leave the Atlantic 10
Rhode Island (FB only) Would not want to leave the Atlantic 10
Richmond (FB only) Would not want to leave the Atlantic 10
UConn (FB only) Wouldn't leave the BE.
Army (FB only) Doesn't join but affiliates like ND affiliates with the ACC
CAA Football Conference:
CAA North:...........CAA South:
UMass....................Liberty
UConn...................James Madison
Rhode Island..........Jacksonville St.
Youngstown St........Florida A&M
S. Illinois................Richmond
Army......................Delaware
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Could this work? I think that it probably could, because it would be a lot easier to build on an existing conference than it would be to start up an entirely new conference, and because the Big East proved that it can be done.
If not the CAA, is there any other eastern conference that could work?
There actually is - - and it is the Atlantic Sun, which you referred to.
Liberty is currently a member, and Jacksonville State is joining this year.
All they would have to do is persuade enough schools that can move toward FBS status within a few seasons to join the A-Sun, while persuading the current A-Sun members to expand into a FBS conference by adding 6 or 8 football schools and perhaps a couple of new full members.
Either the CAA or the A-Sun could become a FBS conference within 6-8 years, maybe sooner, if they start out with a core of 4 current FBS independents and can add at least 4 FCS schools to switch to FBS within that time frame.
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The next most likely possibility might be a conference like the AAC that has a footprint stretching 3/4 of the way across the country like this:
All-Sports Members:
1. Liberty
2. James Madison
3. Delaware
4. Youngstown State
5. Southern Illinois
6. Jacksonville State
7. Florida A&M
8. Sam Houston State
9. U. Texas-Arlington
10. New Mexico State
11. Eastern Washington
Plus a few FB-only affiliates (e.g., UMass, UConn)
Could that work?
I'm not seeing it right now. It looks too spread out, and it would have to start up a whole new conference.
Maybe that's what you had in mind regarding the WAC - - starting out with New Mexico State as the core FBS team and building from there with NDSU, the two Texas schools, etc., etc.
But the WAC version would probably take closer to 10 years, since they'd be starting out with a smaller FBS core.
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Regardless you seem to have some insights of your own that I don't have about the WAC and the A-Sun. Do tell...
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