(02-16-2021 07:46 PM)ICThawk Wrote: (02-16-2021 05:38 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote: The Big Ten shouldn’t rush to 20 unless they need to.
In 2024 they need to pursue Oklahoma and Kansas. The Big 12 GOR will be up and their tv rights will be up for negotiation. The Big 10 can offer Oklahoma way more money than what the Big 12 can.
In 2037, when the ACC GOR is up, then you go for ND and a plus 1 for 18 and hope that the SEC is prowling for Florida St and Clemson at the same time, which would make it easier to pry away ACC properties.
I agree that the B1G can offer OU more money than the Big12 but I think the question is can the B1G offer more money than the SEC.
Money isn't the issue with OU deciding between the SEC and Big 10. The decision will be a wrestling match with Big Money Donors who love sports wanting the SEC and the Academics wanting the Big 10. But keep in mind athletically the sticking points over the Big 10 are significant and none of it has to do with football, except maybe a little bit on the SEC's side with recruiting access and games in Texas whether Texas joins the SEC or not.
The big issues for Oklahoma is that other sports receive large contributions from the Big Money Donors. Surprisingly women's gymnastics and softball both have huge followings at Oklahoma. Both favor an affiliation with the SEC. Oklahoma Basketball for men and women would be very competitive in the SEC. Their women's basketball would be very competitive in the Big 10, but their men's hoops may not be as competitive against a Big 10 slate as they would against the SEC. And then there is baseball. Oklahoma baseball also has a large following and the SEC is a major draw because of the number of players signed by the major leagues.
A big point however in the Big 10's favor is men's wrestling which Title IX eliminated in the SEC. Everything else is a wash.
There are some corporate backers at OU that would favor an affiliation with the Big 10.
Separation from Texas is what they fear, even though they don't talk openly about it. If they leave and Texas doesn't go with them then they need games in Texas. If Texas heads to either the SEC or Big 10 then Oklahoma is likely to go with them.
What they fear most is that Oklahoma accepts a Big 10 offer and leaves with perhaps Kansas for the Big 10 and Texas stays behind to make the Big 12 work, gives it a year and heads to the SEC with or without another Texas Team, and without another Texas Team with Oklahoma State which has the 4th most productive athletic department in the Big 12. IMO this scenario is very unlikely. If Texas moves to the SEC to join A&M they will want either Baylor (oldest university in the state of Texas), or Tech to go with them. I see no scenario where OSU moves to the SEC with Texas. But if they did you can see how this would upset OU. Texas could refuse to play them, OSU would have SEC branding, and Oklahoma is effectively isolated from games in Texas with anything but G5's. They would see this as a major problem.
So when OU makes a decision, if they do, then the struggle will be internal, and the question is will the administration win, or the donors and athletic department? Will Texas be with us, or not? Are we leaving the Pokes a better option than we think?
It won't be money as long as it is relatively close. So the only factor that would tilt this decision without the internal struggle is Texas choosing to leave and then it will be a matter of where Texas is going. And believe it or not there is very little chance Texas heads to the Big 10. They see the distance and business model as being too different from what their fan base is accustomed to experiencing. They are obligated to ESPN until 2031 so if they move prior to 2031 I fully expect them to move to an ESPN held conference. So, unless ESPN buys FOX out and acquires majority rights to the Big 10 I think Texas is off the market for the Big 10. If ESPN does buyout FOX for the Big 10 rights then Texas and Oklahoma could be very much in the mix for the Big 10.
All of that said Oklahoma is tired of Texas getting the special T3 deal from ESPN. They want to make more money because they can't always cover their needs with Oil and Gas money being so up and down, and now with fracking under threat by the Democrats. So I truly think if the SEC and Big 10 offered them an in we'd have their ear. I think they are ready to move. But I don't think they know yet which way they would choose.