(11-15-2020 05:48 PM)schmolik Wrote:  A 1 loss Notre Dame losing to Clemson in the ACC CG would be debatable and in that case I'd go with the Pac-12 (I'd go with unbeaten Cincy or BYU over 1 loss ND as well).

It would depend on how the Irish lose. Lose to Clemson like they did in the playoffs two years ago, a 27 point blowout, and ND will be out of the playoffs, period.

But lose in a close, competitive game? I don't see an unbeaten BYU or Cincy or any other non-P5 standing a chance of getting in over them. At that point you'd have an Irish team with 11 wins vs P5, compared to BYU or Cincy with zero, and basically splitting on even terms two games with Clemson, who would be in the CFP.

But don't worry - ND probably loses to North Carolina in 13 days, which solves that problem.

A dark horse is A&M finishing with one loss (Bama) with Bama trouncing the Gators in the SEC Championship. Let's say ND beats Clemson again, OSU runs the table, then you could be looking at Bama AND A&M going through. Or OSU can lose to Indiana this weekend and you potentially a one loss B1G champ vs A&M runner up. Keep in mind the SEC may schedule additional games alongside the CCG to boost said resumes. If A&M is in the mix, and extra game would help them immensely (most likely vs the East runner up if they are following the B1G model).

(11-15-2020 06:01 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  A dark horse is A&M finishing with one loss (Bama) with Bama trouncing the Gators in the SEC Championship.

Yes, A&M is by no means out of the playoffs. They could get in the way Alabama did in 2017, by sitting out the SEC title game.

(11-15-2020 05:48 PM)schmolik Wrote:  

(11-15-2020 04:24 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(11-15-2020 03:24 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  I don’t think a 7-0 PAC 12 team goes over UC or BYU undefeated. Shame on them and Scott. Also feel OSU needs to run the table. B1G east is very weak this year and you can’t take them if they lose to the B1G West champ. Fla beating Bama and the SEC having two one loss teams, in addition to Clemson ND split would be the back breaker for UC BYU. Big 12 is out.

A 7-0 USC or Oregon would be in over a UC or BYU. The real question is would they be in over over a 1 loss Clemson/Bama/ND. I suspect they wouldn't.

A 1 loss Clemson would win the ACC. I don't think they would stand in USC/Oregon's way of the Playoff. A 1 loss Notre Dame losing to Clemson in the ACC CG would be debatable and in that case I'd go with the Pac-12 (I'd go with unbeaten Cincy or BYU over 1 loss ND as well).

I would assume barring total chaos the Big Ten, SEC, and ACC champs all get in, it's the 4th Playoff spot that would be up for grabs. I think Alabama with 1 loss as a non champion would be in over any unbeaten, even an unbeaten Pac-12. I don't like Notre Dame over other "high" unbeatens (Pac-12, Cincinnati, BYU). They beat Clemson at home in double OT when they didn't have Trevor Lawrence. There's not enough information about Ohio State or Wisconsin to say if the loser of a double undefeated OSU/Wisconsin Big Ten Championship game can make it. I'd say they'd have a better argument than Notre Dame but I'm not sure over the undefeateds. Keep in mind Wisconsin plays Indiana this year which helps Wisconsin's strength of schedule. It sucks for the B1G that both Penn State and Michigan suck.

Its not about what you or I would do, its about what the committee would do. Personally I would never allow a non-conference champion into the playoff (so long as it stands at four teams). I think it invalidates the regular season. I don't have a vote though, and I don't see a one loss ND team getting left out. At the minimum it wouldn't be for BYU or Cincy. A two loss Clemson team would get in over them. Its not how I would vote it but I fully believe it is how the committee would vote.

Edit: As for the Big 10 I'll just defer to you. I honestly haven't watched a single game of Big 10 play and I don't really plan to start. If Ohio St. wins the league with 1 or fewer losses they're in. Any other team winning the league would likely need to be undefeated.

(11-15-2020 06:10 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(11-15-2020 05:48 PM)schmolik Wrote:  

(11-15-2020 04:24 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(11-15-2020 03:24 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  I don’t think a 7-0 PAC 12 team goes over UC or BYU undefeated. Shame on them and Scott. Also feel OSU needs to run the table. B1G east is very weak this year and you can’t take them if they lose to the B1G West champ. Fla beating Bama and the SEC having two one loss teams, in addition to Clemson ND split would be the back breaker for UC BYU. Big 12 is out.

A 7-0 USC or Oregon would be in over a UC or BYU. The real question is would they be in over over a 1 loss Clemson/Bama/ND. I suspect they wouldn't.

A 1 loss Clemson would win the ACC. I don't think they would stand in USC/Oregon's way of the Playoff. A 1 loss Notre Dame losing to Clemson in the ACC CG would be debatable and in that case I'd go with the Pac-12 (I'd go with unbeaten Cincy or BYU over 1 loss ND as well).

I would assume barring total chaos the Big Ten, SEC, and ACC champs all get in, it's the 4th Playoff spot that would be up for grabs. I think Alabama with 1 loss as a non champion would be in over any unbeaten, even an unbeaten Pac-12. I don't like Notre Dame over other "high" unbeatens (Pac-12, Cincinnati, BYU). They beat Clemson at home in double OT when they didn't have Trevor Lawrence. There's not enough information about Ohio State or Wisconsin to say if the loser of a double undefeated OSU/Wisconsin Big Ten Championship game can make it. I'd say they'd have a better argument than Notre Dame but I'm not sure over the undefeateds. Keep in mind Wisconsin plays Indiana this year which helps Wisconsin's strength of schedule. It sucks for the B1G that both Penn State and Michigan suck.

Its not about what you or I would do, its about what the committee would do. Personally I would never allow a non-conference champion into the playoff (so long as it stands at four teams). I think it invalidates the regular season. I don't have a vote though, and I don't see a one loss ND team getting left out. At the minimum it wouldn't be for BYU or Cincy. A two loss Clemson team would get in over them. Its not how I would vote it but I fully believe it is how the committee would vote.

I think you are overly pessimistic in two senses - first, I think a one-loss ND could very well get left out, even in favor of a Cincy or BYU, if they get roasted by Clemson. An Irish team that gets routed 42 - 7 isn't getting in, period, IMO. Just would not pass the eye/smell/giggle test.

And I do not see a two-loss Clemson getting in to the playoffs over anyone else either.

That's what I think the committee's POV will be. But I am just blowing smoke like all of us, LOL.

(11-15-2020 06:00 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-15-2020 05:48 PM)schmolik Wrote:  A 1 loss Notre Dame losing to Clemson in the ACC CG would be debatable and in that case I'd go with the Pac-12 (I'd go with unbeaten Cincy or BYU over 1 loss ND as well).

It would depend on how the Irish lose. Lose to Clemson like they did in the playoffs two years ago, a 27 point blowout, and ND will be out of the playoffs, period.

But lose in a close, competitive game? I don't see an unbeaten BYU or Cincy or any other non-P5 standing a chance of getting in over them. At that point you'd have an Irish team with 11 wins vs P5, compared to BYU or Cincy with zero, and basically splitting on even terms two games with Clemson, who would be in the CFP.

But don't worry - ND probably loses to North Carolina in 13 days, which solves that problem.

Notre Dame would only have 10 P5 wins, their non conference win is over USF. How could you miss that quo, they're your school!

Also, not all P5's are created equally. SMU, Tulsa, and UCF are probably better than some of the bottom feeder ACC and Pathetic 12 teams Notre Dame and an undefeated Oregon/USC would have played (and since the Pac-12 champ will only play 7, that's not a lot). I'd say if Cincy makes it undefeated it will be impressive.

Texas A&M is certainly in the conversation, especially with a Committee that has given the SEC the benefit of the doubt in the past.

(11-15-2020 06:04 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-15-2020 06:01 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  A dark horse is A&M finishing with one loss (Bama) with Bama trouncing the Gators in the SEC Championship.

Yes, A&M is by no means out of the playoffs. They could get in the way Alabama did in 2017, by sitting out the SEC title game.

A&M vs. BYU or Cincy that last week?

(11-15-2020 06:15 PM)schmolik Wrote:  

(11-15-2020 06:00 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-15-2020 05:48 PM)schmolik Wrote:  A 1 loss Notre Dame losing to Clemson in the ACC CG would be debatable and in that case I'd go with the Pac-12 (I'd go with unbeaten Cincy or BYU over 1 loss ND as well).

It would depend on how the Irish lose. Lose to Clemson like they did in the playoffs two years ago, a 27 point blowout, and ND will be out of the playoffs, period.

But lose in a close, competitive game? I don't see an unbeaten BYU or Cincy or any other non-P5 standing a chance of getting in over them. At that point you'd have an Irish team with 11 wins vs P5, compared to BYU or Cincy with zero, and basically splitting on even terms two games with Clemson, who would be in the CFP.

But don't worry - ND probably loses to North Carolina in 13 days, which solves that problem.

Notre Dame would only have 10 P5 wins, their non conference win is over USF. How could you miss that quo, they're your school!

Also, not all P5's are created equally. SMU, Tulsa, and UCF are probably better than some of the bottom feeder ACC and Pathetic 12 teams Notre Dame and an undefeated Oregon/USC would have played (and since the Pac-12 champ will only play 7, that's not a lot). I'd say if Cincy makes it undefeated it will be impressive.

Actually, I didn't miss USF. I thought ND would have played 12 regular season games, 11 ACC and USF. But I messed that up.

But 11 to 0 (compared to BYU/Cincy) isn't substantively different from 10-0. And while yes, a win over a UCF is better than a win over a bad (or even mediocre) P5, a Cincy or BYU is only going to have two or three of those, the rest of their schedule - rightly or wrongly - will be viewed as very inferior.

I totally agree that an unbeaten Cincy will have had a very impressive season. But as I explained to UCF fans two - three years ago, even a P5 can have a very impressive season and not make the playoffs. There are 130 FBS teams and only four get in, so you can be better than 125 of those 130 and still not be good enough.

I will say this - I think an unbeaten Cincy or BYU has essentially zero chance of getting in over any unbeaten P5 champ, even a champ with say only six overall wins. Just not happening.

(11-15-2020 06:15 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-15-2020 06:10 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(11-15-2020 05:48 PM)schmolik Wrote:  

(11-15-2020 04:24 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(11-15-2020 03:24 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  I don’t think a 7-0 PAC 12 team goes over UC or BYU undefeated. Shame on them and Scott. Also feel OSU needs to run the table. B1G east is very weak this year and you can’t take them if they lose to the B1G West champ. Fla beating Bama and the SEC having two one loss teams, in addition to Clemson ND split would be the back breaker for UC BYU. Big 12 is out.

A 7-0 USC or Oregon would be in over a UC or BYU. The real question is would they be in over over a 1 loss Clemson/Bama/ND. I suspect they wouldn't.

A 1 loss Clemson would win the ACC. I don't think they would stand in USC/Oregon's way of the Playoff. A 1 loss Notre Dame losing to Clemson in the ACC CG would be debatable and in that case I'd go with the Pac-12 (I'd go with unbeaten Cincy or BYU over 1 loss ND as well).

I would assume barring total chaos the Big Ten, SEC, and ACC champs all get in, it's the 4th Playoff spot that would be up for grabs. I think Alabama with 1 loss as a non champion would be in over any unbeaten, even an unbeaten Pac-12. I don't like Notre Dame over other "high" unbeatens (Pac-12, Cincinnati, BYU). They beat Clemson at home in double OT when they didn't have Trevor Lawrence. There's not enough information about Ohio State or Wisconsin to say if the loser of a double undefeated OSU/Wisconsin Big Ten Championship game can make it. I'd say they'd have a better argument than Notre Dame but I'm not sure over the undefeateds. Keep in mind Wisconsin plays Indiana this year which helps Wisconsin's strength of schedule. It sucks for the B1G that both Penn State and Michigan suck.

Its not about what you or I would do, its about what the committee would do. Personally I would never allow a non-conference champion into the playoff (so long as it stands at four teams). I think it invalidates the regular season. I don't have a vote though, and I don't see a one loss ND team getting left out. At the minimum it wouldn't be for BYU or Cincy. A two loss Clemson team would get in over them. Its not how I would vote it but I fully believe it is how the committee would vote.

I think you are overly pessimistic in two senses - first, I think a one-loss ND could very well get left out, even in favor of a Cincy or BYU, if they get roasted by Clemson. An Irish team that gets routed 42 - 7 isn't getting in, period, IMO. Just would not pass the eye/smell/giggle test.

And I do not see a two-loss Clemson getting in to the playoffs over anyone else either.

That's what I think the committee's POV will be. But I am just blowing smoke like all of us, LOL.

I don't see any way the committee picks BYU or Cincinnati. Florida or Texas A&M with 2 losses likely end up ranked ahead of them. BYU does have a shot at the NY6.

(11-15-2020 06:15 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-15-2020 06:10 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(11-15-2020 05:48 PM)schmolik Wrote:  

(11-15-2020 04:24 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(11-15-2020 03:24 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  I don’t think a 7-0 PAC 12 team goes over UC or BYU undefeated. Shame on them and Scott. Also feel OSU needs to run the table. B1G east is very weak this year and you can’t take them if they lose to the B1G West champ. Fla beating Bama and the SEC having two one loss teams, in addition to Clemson ND split would be the back breaker for UC BYU. Big 12 is out.

A 7-0 USC or Oregon would be in over a UC or BYU. The real question is would they be in over over a 1 loss Clemson/Bama/ND. I suspect they wouldn't.

A 1 loss Clemson would win the ACC. I don't think they would stand in USC/Oregon's way of the Playoff. A 1 loss Notre Dame losing to Clemson in the ACC CG would be debatable and in that case I'd go with the Pac-12 (I'd go with unbeaten Cincy or BYU over 1 loss ND as well).

I would assume barring total chaos the Big Ten, SEC, and ACC champs all get in, it's the 4th Playoff spot that would be up for grabs. I think Alabama with 1 loss as a non champion would be in over any unbeaten, even an unbeaten Pac-12. I don't like Notre Dame over other "high" unbeatens (Pac-12, Cincinnati, BYU). They beat Clemson at home in double OT when they didn't have Trevor Lawrence. There's not enough information about Ohio State or Wisconsin to say if the loser of a double undefeated OSU/Wisconsin Big Ten Championship game can make it. I'd say they'd have a better argument than Notre Dame but I'm not sure over the undefeateds. Keep in mind Wisconsin plays Indiana this year which helps Wisconsin's strength of schedule. It sucks for the B1G that both Penn State and Michigan suck.

Its not about what you or I would do, its about what the committee would do. Personally I would never allow a non-conference champion into the playoff (so long as it stands at four teams). I think it invalidates the regular season. I don't have a vote though, and I don't see a one loss ND team getting left out. At the minimum it wouldn't be for BYU or Cincy. A two loss Clemson team would get in over them. Its not how I would vote it but I fully believe it is how the committee would vote.

I think you are overly pessimistic in two senses - first, I think a one-loss ND could very well get left out, even in favor of a Cincy or BYU, if they get roasted by Clemson. An Irish team that gets routed 42 - 7 isn't getting in, period, IMO. Just would not pass the eye/smell/giggle test.

And I do not see a two-loss Clemson getting in to the playoffs over anyone else either.

That's what I think the committee's POV will be. But I am just blowing smoke like all of us, LOL.

Agreed. I suppose I should have qualified my statement by saying as much. However, I don't see Clemson beating them anywhere near that bad. Lawrence playing in that first game might've been enough to change an L to a W but they still wouldn't have had an answer for ND's offense. If they have a rematch I think ND makes it look respectable enough to stay in the playoff picture.

As for the two loss Clemson statement, I was just blowing smoke. I just don't see BYU or Cincy sneaking in. I think we need to remember that so far we still haven't actually seen what the committee thinks of either team. G5 teams tend to be ranked a few spots lower in the first playoff ranking than in the AP or Coaches. I think its pretty likely both teams aren't in the top 10 when the ranking debuts.

Let me step in as a Cincinnati fan.

1. I do not see the Bearcats going undefeated — so this should soon be all moot. They still have to play at UCF and Tulsa, two quality teams. Even the game at Temple is not a gemme. Then, if UC is 10-0 at regular season's end, the Bearcats will host one of the following (Tulsa, SMU, UCF, Memphis, Houston or Navy) in the league title game. Any of those teams can put up a strong fight.

2. UC will NOT get into the four-team playoff, over a one-loss ND, SEC team or Big Ten team. Most of us agree on that.

3. Cincinnati at 11-0 would not be a shoe-in over a 7-0 Pac-12 team. But it's possible. Clearly 11-0 with a solid schedule ... that's not easy to do.

4. I do feel, and fairly confidently, that UC at 11-0 would get in over a one-loss Big 12 team. The Big 12 is a bit down this season.

5. Essentially, Cincy needs to 1. win out; 2. win out impressively; and 3. hope at least as many as possible teams from the Big Ten, SEC and ACC vying for the playoff have two losses.

6. IF all that happens (a major "IF"), the Bearcats have a shot.

7. As previously noted, if UC makes it to the four-team playoff, Bill Dazzle — in a celebratory state of mind — might pull some stunt here in Nashville that could get himself arrested.

(11-15-2020 08:25 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Let me step in as a Cincinnati fan.

1. I do not see the Bearcats going undefeated — so this should soon be all moot. They still have to play at UCF and Tulsa, two quality teams. Even the game at Temple is not a gemme. Then, if UC is 10-0 at regular season's end, the Bearcats will host one of the following (Tulsa, SMU, UCF, Memphis, Houston or Navy) in the league title game. Any of those teams can put up a strong fight.

2. UC will NOT get into the four-team playoff, over a one-loss ND, SEC team or Big Ten team. Most of us agree on that.

3. Cincinnati at 11-0 would not be a shoe-in over a 7-0 Pac-12 team. But it's possible. Clearly 11-0 with a solid schedule ... that's not easy to do.

4. I do feel, and fairly confidently, that UC at 11-0 would get in over a one-loss Big 12 team. The Big 12 is a bit down this season.

5. Essentially, Cincy needs to 1. win out; 2. win out impressively; and 3. hope at least as many as possible teams from the Big Ten, SEC and ACC vying for the playoff have two losses.

6. IF all that happens (a major "IF"), the Bearcats have a shot.

7. As previously noted, if UC makes it to the four-team playoff, Bill Dazzle — in a celebratory state of mind — might pull some stunt here in Nashville that could get him arrested.

No chance Cincinnati gets in over a 1 loss Oklahoma St. (only possible 1 loss Big 12 team) with the lone loss to Texas in OT. They have 2 wins over ranked teams and play OU this weekend and then a ccg against (assuming they beat OU and run the table) ISU, KSU or Texas.

The CFP was created by the P5 to make money for the P5? What incentive is there to have a non P5 team in the CFP? If the P5 somehow got control of the basketball tourney, we'd see the same scenario in basketball.

(11-15-2020 09:02 PM)Edgebrookjeff Wrote:  The CFP was created by the P5 to make money for the P5? What incentive is there to have a non P5 team in the CFP? If the P5 somehow got control of the basketball tourney, we'd see the same scenario in basketball.

And they rely on an eyeball test which always favors the teams with higher ranked recruiting classes.

(11-15-2020 08:56 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-15-2020 08:25 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Let me step in as a Cincinnati fan.

1. I do not see the Bearcats going undefeated — so this should soon be all moot. They still have to play at UCF and Tulsa, two quality teams. Even the game at Temple is not a gemme. Then, if UC is 10-0 at regular season's end, the Bearcats will host one of the following (Tulsa, SMU, UCF, Memphis, Houston or Navy) in the league title game. Any of those teams can put up a strong fight.

2. UC will NOT get into the four-team playoff, over a one-loss ND, SEC team or Big Ten team. Most of us agree on that.

3. Cincinnati at 11-0 would not be a shoe-in over a 7-0 Pac-12 team. But it's possible. Clearly 11-0 with a solid schedule ... that's not easy to do.

4. I do feel, and fairly confidently, that UC at 11-0 would get in over a one-loss Big 12 team. The Big 12 is a bit down this season.

5. Essentially, Cincy needs to 1. win out; 2. win out impressively; and 3. hope at least as many as possible teams from the Big Ten, SEC and ACC vying for the playoff have two losses.

6. IF all that happens (a major "IF"), the Bearcats have a shot.

7. As previously noted, if UC makes it to the four-team playoff, Bill Dazzle — in a celebratory state of mind — might pull some stunt here in Nashville that could get him arrested.

No chance Cincinnati gets in over a 1 loss Oklahoma St. (only possible 1 loss Big 12 team) with the lone loss to Texas in OT. They have 2 wins over ranked teams and play OU this weekend and then a ccg against (assuming they beat OU and run the table) ISU, KSU or Texas.

You very well might be correct on that. I guess I was thinking that a one-loss Oklahoma State almost lost to Tulsa, which Cincy could hypothetically pound.

Regardless, and as noted, I do not foresee UC going undefeated anyway. So the hypothetical is just that.

BYU and Liberty this year are two examples of why there needs to be a provision in the CFP for independent teams to at least have a way to play into an access bowl.

If the rule was any G5 champion or independent finishing in the CFP Top 20 will receive an access bowl that I think would be fair, especially if they go from an NY6 to a NY8 and there is 16 slots available.

BYU undefeated + snub by the committee on an access bowl could force a rule change.

(11-15-2020 09:20 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-15-2020 09:02 PM)Edgebrookjeff Wrote:  The CFP was created by the P5 to make money for the P5? What incentive is there to have a non P5 team in the CFP? If the P5 somehow got control of the basketball tourney, we'd see the same scenario in basketball.

And they rely on an eyeball test which always favors the teams with higher ranked recruiting classes.

I don't know how you define an eyeball test.

But I do think they base credibility around Heisman candidates and other highly touted players which favor the P5 bluebloods because those guys come with the highly rated classes.

(11-15-2020 08:56 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-15-2020 08:25 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Let me step in as a Cincinnati fan.

1. I do not see the Bearcats going undefeated — so this should soon be all moot. They still have to play at UCF and Tulsa, two quality teams. Even the game at Temple is not a gemme. Then, if UC is 10-0 at regular season's end, the Bearcats will host one of the following (Tulsa, SMU, UCF, Memphis, Houston or Navy) in the league title game. Any of those teams can put up a strong fight.

2. UC will NOT get into the four-team playoff, over a one-loss ND, SEC team or Big Ten team. Most of us agree on that.

3. Cincinnati at 11-0 would not be a shoe-in over a 7-0 Pac-12 team. But it's possible. Clearly 11-0 with a solid schedule ... that's not easy to do.

4. I do feel, and fairly confidently, that UC at 11-0 would get in over a one-loss Big 12 team. The Big 12 is a bit down this season.

5. Essentially, Cincy needs to 1. win out; 2. win out impressively; and 3. hope at least as many as possible teams from the Big Ten, SEC and ACC vying for the playoff have two losses.

6. IF all that happens (a major "IF"), the Bearcats have a shot.

7. As previously noted, if UC makes it to the four-team playoff, Bill Dazzle — in a celebratory state of mind — might pull some stunt here in Nashville that could get him arrested.

No chance Cincinnati gets in over a 1 loss Oklahoma St. (only possible 1 loss Big 12 team) with the lone loss to Texas in OT. They have 2 wins over ranked teams and play OU this weekend and then a ccg against (assuming they beat OU and run the table) ISU, KSU or Texas.

You're referring to the Iowa State team that lost to Louisiana 31-14, right?

And the Kansas State team that lost to 3-5 Arkansas State, right?

The best teams in the Big 12 aren't exactly faring well against outside competition this year.

(11-15-2020 06:15 PM)Crayton Wrote:  A&M vs. BYU or Cincy that last week?

It makes you wonder, will conferences be more willing to stage 13th games for schools that fail to qualify for respective CCG? If you have two bubble teams that finish 2nd in a P5 division, why not just throw a game together if you need another match on your resume? It’s unlikely but I’m trying to figure out what mechanism it would take. Would teams be able to schedule out of conference? I’d also imagine you can’t compete with your CCG in the same time slot so I don’t know when you’d be able to schedule it.

(11-16-2020 12:34 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(11-15-2020 08:56 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-15-2020 08:25 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Let me step in as a Cincinnati fan.

1. I do not see the Bearcats going undefeated — so this should soon be all moot. They still have to play at UCF and Tulsa, two quality teams. Even the game at Temple is not a gemme. Then, if UC is 10-0 at regular season's end, the Bearcats will host one of the following (Tulsa, SMU, UCF, Memphis, Houston or Navy) in the league title game. Any of those teams can put up a strong fight.

2. UC will NOT get into the four-team playoff, over a one-loss ND, SEC team or Big Ten team. Most of us agree on that.

3. Cincinnati at 11-0 would not be a shoe-in over a 7-0 Pac-12 team. But it's possible. Clearly 11-0 with a solid schedule ... that's not easy to do.

4. I do feel, and fairly confidently, that UC at 11-0 would get in over a one-loss Big 12 team. The Big 12 is a bit down this season.

5. Essentially, Cincy needs to 1. win out; 2. win out impressively; and 3. hope at least as many as possible teams from the Big Ten, SEC and ACC vying for the playoff have two losses.

6. IF all that happens (a major "IF"), the Bearcats have a shot.

7. As previously noted, if UC makes it to the four-team playoff, Bill Dazzle — in a celebratory state of mind — might pull some stunt here in Nashville that could get him arrested.

No chance Cincinnati gets in over a 1 loss Oklahoma St. (only possible 1 loss Big 12 team) with the lone loss to Texas in OT. They have 2 wins over ranked teams and play OU this weekend and then a ccg against (assuming they beat OU and run the table) ISU, KSU or Texas.

You're referring to the Iowa State team that lost to Louisiana 31-14, right?

And the Kansas State team that lost to 3-5 Arkansas State, right?

The best teams in the Big 12 aren't exactly faring well against outside competition this year.

Don’t forget Oregon, who will play a bunch of teams that finished sub .500 last year (including a UCLA team Cincinnati beat the past two years), with only real tests being Washington and the CCG. But.. “muh eyeball test”.