Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)

Post Reply 
Buy or Sell: BYU/Cincy to the Playoff?
Author Message
Crayton Online
2nd String
*

Posts: 455
Joined: Feb 2019
Reputation: 48
I Root For: Florida
Location:
Post: #1
Buy or Sell: BYU/Cincy to the Playoff?
ESPN’s FPI gives BYU a 29% chance to make the playoff if they go undefeated. Too high? Too low? Overall these Cougars are rated the 9th most likely playoff team and the only non-“Power” team given >0.0% chance by FPI.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi
(This post was last modified: 11-10-2020 11:51 PM by Crayton.)
10-23-2020 10:30 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


quo vadis Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 36,484
Joined: Aug 2008
Reputation: 1079
I Root For: USF/Georgetown
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Post: #2
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
More like 5%.

Terrible SOS
10-23-2020 10:33 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Pervis_Griffith Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,892
Joined: Feb 2005
Reputation: 199
I Root For: Louisville
Location:
Post: #3
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
Balderdash!!!

27% MAX!! 29% is crazy talk!


Like those 8 minute abs folk!



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JB2di69F...e=emb_logo
10-23-2020 10:36 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Crayton Online
2nd String
*

Posts: 455
Joined: Feb 2019
Reputation: 48
I Root For: Florida
Location:
Post: #4
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
If BYU has 29%, I don’t see why BSU wouldn’t have more than 0.0%. Schedules are comparable.

Before the season, ESPN said they would weight FPI this season based on relative “conference” strength. Not sure what they did with Independents, but it looks a little screwy.

That said I (without weights for conferences) have a 10-0 BYU at 92% (same for undefeated Cincy), so I don’t have much room to talk.
10-23-2020 10:52 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Todor Offline
2nd String
*

Posts: 417
Joined: Jan 2019
Reputation: 45
I Root For: Nmsu
Location:
Post: #5
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
Its hard not to at least glance at BYU's pre Covid schedule, which was pretty solid, and to give them some benefit of the doubt. Its not like they went out and chose all of these teams with years of pre planning. They essentially had the choice to play who they could get or sit home that week.

09/03 – at Utah
09/12 – Michigan State
09/19 – at Arizona State
09/26 – at Minnesota
10/02 – Utah State
10/10 – Missouri
10/16 – Houston
10/24 – at Northern Illinois
10/31 – OFF
11/06 – at Boise State
11/14 – San Diego State
11/21 – North Alabama
11/28 – at Stanford
(This post was last modified: 10-23-2020 11:01 PM by Todor.)
10-23-2020 10:56 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
quo vadis Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 36,484
Joined: Aug 2008
Reputation: 1079
I Root For: USF/Georgetown
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Post: #6
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(10-23-2020 10:56 PM)Todor Wrote:  Its hard not to at least glance at BYU's pre Covid schedule, which was pretty solid, and to give them some benefit of the doubt. Its not like they went out and chose all of these teams with years of pre planning.

Nobody is blaming BYU for their schedule. But we can"t give them credit for teams they aren't playing.
10-23-2020 11:30 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


Captain Bearcat Offline
All-American in Everything
*

Posts: 6,868
Joined: Jun 2010
Reputation: 487
I Root For: UC
Location: IL & Cincinnati, USA
Post: #7
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
BYU is also hindered by the chance that Cincinnati or SMU will go undefeated.

If it's a choice between a BYU team whose hardest game was at Army, or a Cincinnati team who beat Army and 2-3 other ranked teams, the committee will go with Cincinnati.
10-23-2020 11:45 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
ChrisLords Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 6,397
Joined: Jun 2007
Reputation: 127
I Root For: Virginia Tech
Location: Earth
Post: #8
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
BYU has a 0.0% chance of making the playoff if undefeated. Even if everyone else has a loss. The CFP selection committee will find a way to keep them out.
10-24-2020 02:50 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
jedclampett Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 2,371
Joined: Jul 2019
Reputation: 122
I Root For: Temple
Location:
Post: #9
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(10-24-2020 02:50 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  BYU has a 0.0% chance of making the playoff if undefeated. Even if everyone else has a loss. The CFP selection committee will find a way to keep them out.

If that ends up happening, it wouldn't be too surprising to see a movement at BYU to align with the AAC, or possibly the MWC, where they could play more nationally-ranked teams.
10-24-2020 03:17 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
kevinwmsn Offline
Special Teams
*

Posts: 939
Joined: Jul 2015
Reputation: 26
I Root For: South Alabama
Location:
Post: #10
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
They will put a 3-0 Ohio State in over an undefeated BYU team.
10-24-2020 08:37 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
esayem Offline
Hark The Sound!
*

Posts: 6,970
Joined: Feb 2007
Reputation: 263
I Root For: The Heels
Location: Tobacco Road
Post: #11
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
Buy, but it will be tough. Undefeated BYU —who has absolutely been torching teams — has name cache to break the barrier if the second place SEC, ACC, and Big Ten teams have two losses. I find it unlikely OK State, K-State, or Iowa St. finishes with one loss. A few Pac teams could be a threat to overtake them, but BYU is 12 right now, they just need to climb 8 spots.
10-24-2020 10:00 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


schmolik Online
1st String
*

Posts: 1,235
Joined: Sep 2019
Reputation: 43
I Root For: UIUC, PSU, Nova
Location: Philadelphia Suburbs
Post: #12
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(10-23-2020 10:30 PM)Crayton Wrote:  ESPN’s FPI gives BYU a 29% chance to make the playoff if they go undefeated. Too high? Too low? Overall these Cougars are rated the 9th most likely playoff team and the only non-“Power” team given >0.0% chance by FPI.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi

29% "if" they go undefeated. The better question is what is the chance they will be undefeated?
10-24-2020 10:01 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
goodknightfl Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 17,868
Joined: Feb 2004
Reputation: 292
I Root For:
Location:
Post: #13
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001%.

SELL SELL SELL!!
(This post was last modified: 11-02-2020 04:19 PM by goodknightfl.)
10-24-2020 10:02 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
f1do Offline
2nd String
*

Posts: 433
Joined: Jun 2014
Reputation: 42
I Root For: BYU
Location: Utah
Post: #14
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
I'm not holding my breath but am just enjoying the ride. BYU only has 10 games on the current schedule unless they are able to reschedule Army (previous date was covid-cancelled) in one of the spots they have held open to try and improve the SOS with some P5 conferences starting again who might have a gap due to a covid-cancellation and a team wants a replacement (open dates are 11/14, 11/28, 12/5).

(10-24-2020 03:17 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  If that ends up happening, it wouldn't be too surprising to see a movement at BYU to align with the AAC, or possibly the MWC, where they could play more nationally-ranked teams.

The indy schedule BYU put together would have been perfectly adequate if covid hadn't scuttled so many games. In 2021 (assuming things aren't still covid-crazy), BYU will almost play a PAC-12 conference schedule (5 games--Arizona, Utah, Arizona State, USC, Washington State), Baylor from the Big 12, and Virginia from the ACC, and have their annual game against Boise State.

This year they still have several late season dates open in hopes of landing a higher-ranked game. But I don't know that joining the ACC/MWC fills their schedule with nationally-ranked teams, does it?
(This post was last modified: 10-24-2020 11:04 AM by f1do.)
10-24-2020 11:03 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
bill dazzle Online
1st String
*

Posts: 2,445
Joined: Aug 2016
Reputation: 175
I Root For: VUMemIUDePaulNC
Location: Tower Crane Town
Post: #15
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(10-23-2020 11:45 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  BYU is also hindered by the chance that Cincinnati or SMU will go undefeated.

If it's a choice between a BYU team whose hardest game was at Army, or a Cincinnati team who beat Army and 2-3 other ranked teams, the committee will go with Cincinnati.


Thanks for jinxing us, CapBearcat.

On a serious note, an undefeated Cincy or SMU would have as good a shot as an undefeated BYU of a playoff invite — which is the same chance I would have had, whilst sporting white muttonchop sideburns that flow to my groin region and wearing a pink and purple leotard, scoring a date with Kristin Welker after a chance meeting here in Nashville and following the presidential debate at Belmont U.
10-24-2020 11:10 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
BePcr07 Online
1st String
*

Posts: 2,298
Joined: Dec 2015
Reputation: 110
I Root For: Boise St & Zags
Location:
Post: #16
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(10-24-2020 08:37 AM)kevinwmsn Wrote:  They will put a 3-0 Ohio State in over an undefeated BYU team.

“Eye Test”
10-24-2020 11:18 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


Crayton Online
2nd String
*

Posts: 455
Joined: Feb 2019
Reputation: 48
I Root For: Florida
Location:
Post: #17
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(10-24-2020 08:37 AM)kevinwmsn Wrote:  They will put a 3-0 Ohio State in over an undefeated BYU team.
A relevant factor here is that a B1G team must play 6 games (or within 2 of conference average) to be CCG eligible. Even a 6-0 final record implies missing the BTCG. Not a death knell for tOSU, but an easy-enough excuse to exclude them.
10-24-2020 12:38 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
ManleyPointer Offline
Bench Warmer
*

Posts: 131
Joined: Dec 2014
Reputation: 2
I Root For: BYU
Location:
Post: #18
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
It's an interesting hypothetical but I'm told by our older fans that BYU's best ever team was 1985. And they lost to an otherwise winless UTEP.

(10-23-2020 11:30 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-23-2020 10:56 PM)Todor Wrote:  Its hard not to at least glance at BYU's pre Covid schedule, which was pretty solid, and to give them some benefit of the doubt. Its not like they went out and chose all of these teams with years of pre planning.

Nobody is blaming BYU for their schedule. But we can"t give them credit for teams they aren't playing.

We did in 1984. That championship is often dogged because BYU played a subpar Michigan in the Holiday Bowl. An 11-1 Washington had a chance to play us. They balked & took the Orange Bowl payday. Pollsters remembered that.

Of course that was a different era. The current system has less room for "outsider" programs. Still, I could see an "insider" team (Minnesota? Arizona State?) being snubbed in the post-season for refusing to play us. Especially if that snub would open the door for a blueblood program.
10-24-2020 01:15 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
quo vadis Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 36,484
Joined: Aug 2008
Reputation: 1079
I Root For: USF/Georgetown
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Post: #19
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(10-24-2020 01:15 PM)ManleyPointer Wrote:  It's an interesting hypothetical but I'm told by our older fans that BYU's best ever team was 1985. And they lost to an otherwise winless UTEP.

(10-23-2020 11:30 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-23-2020 10:56 PM)Todor Wrote:  Its hard not to at least glance at BYU's pre Covid schedule, which was pretty solid, and to give them some benefit of the doubt. Its not like they went out and chose all of these teams with years of pre planning.

Nobody is blaming BYU for their schedule. But we can"t give them credit for teams they aren't playing.

We did in 1984. That championship is often dogged because BYU played a subpar Michigan in the Holiday Bowl. An 11-1 Washington had a chance to play us. They balked & took the Orange Bowl payday. Pollsters remembered that.

I remember 1984 very well. Yes, BYU lucked out in playing sorry Michigan in their bowl game (and a schleppy uninspiring win at that, I remember watching). No, you can't blame Washington for playing in the Orange Bowl rather than the Holiday Bowl. Anyone would do that. But the real reason you guys won the title was nobody else was very good that year.

Sure, had BYU played Washington or Florida, you probably would have lost. But so what. Nobody was really much good and you guys were undefeated so .... championship.

04-cheers
10-24-2020 02:39 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Todor Offline
2nd String
*

Posts: 417
Joined: Jan 2019
Reputation: 45
I Root For: Nmsu
Location:
Post: #20
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(10-24-2020 03:17 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(10-24-2020 02:50 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  BYU has a 0.0% chance of making the playoff if undefeated. Even if everyone else has a loss. The CFP selection committee will find a way to keep them out.

If that ends up happening, it wouldn't be too surprising to see a movement at BYU to align with the AAC, or possibly the MWC, where they could play more nationally-ranked teams.

I guess the AAC is at least a possibility, but a deal with the Mountain West is virtually impossible. I can’t even imagine it being discussed by with side.
10-24-2020 11:42 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 




User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2020 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
We allow third-party companies to serve ads and/or collect certain anonymous information when you visit our web site. These companies may use non-personally identifiable information (e.g., click stream information, browser type, time and date, subject of advertisements clicked or scrolled over) during your visits to this and other Web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services likely to be of greater interest to you. These companies typically use a cookie or third party web beacon to collect this information. To learn more about this behavioral advertising practice or to opt-out of this type of advertising, you can visit http://www.networkadvertising.org.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2020 MyBB Group.