(09-23-2020 08:59 AM)banker Wrote:  All you have to do is trust your eyes. You can see where the support is at all these rallies, yard signs, etc. Then you have Joe that can’t even muster 25 people to wave at his motorcade.

Trump is a known commodity at this point, however. It's a referendum on him, not Biden.

Virtually 90% of Dems see this election as a vote against Trump, not for Biden.

(09-23-2020 07:52 AM)Eldonabe Wrote:  What must the Biden team be thinking right now about the debate? How do they keep Joe from "being Joe" and having to actively speak on his feet with no help? They must have some kind of ear implant that is invisible to the regular eye - right?

This is like putting a superfly weight class boxer in the ring with vintage Tyson.

Trump almost shouldn't have to speak - just let Joe riff and ramble for 20 minutes. Ask another question and turn him loose again for 20.....

He simply does what most politicians do. He says one sentence and then goes into his standard spiel. He will do a Rubio.

How would you handle the pandemic? "I feel the pain of people suffering from the effects of the pandemic. Donald Trump colludes with Russia. He hates service people. He kills old people. Next?"

Who would you appoint to the Supreme Court? "I feel the pain of people suffering from the effects of the Supreme Court. Donald Trump coludes with Russia. He hates service people. He kills old people. Next?"

(09-23-2020 09:05 AM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  

(09-23-2020 08:59 AM)banker Wrote:  All you have to do is trust your eyes. You can see where the support is at all these rallies, yard signs, etc. Then you have Joe that can’t even muster 25 people to wave at his motorcade.

Trump is a known commodity at this point, however. It's a referendum on him, not Biden.

Virtually 90% of Dems see this election as a vote against Trump, not for Biden.

Independents don't.

(09-23-2020 08:51 AM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  

(09-23-2020 08:43 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  So now the polls are accurate again?

You guys REALLY need to make up your minds!

Every Florida poll since 2016 has oversampled Democrats by at least 4 points...that's the point we're making. Take any poll and add +4 R.

But you're likely making an inaccurate assumption that the electorate is equal between D's and R's and it's not. More people identify as D's nationally (not positive on just Florida). So pretty much every poll is going to poll more democrats than republicans, because more self-identify as such. You can't just add 4 points.

(09-23-2020 08:59 AM)banker Wrote:  All you have to do is trust your eyes. You can see where the support is at all these rallies, yard signs, etc. Then you have Joe that can’t even muster 25 people to wave at his motorcade.

25? He’ll, he can barely muster 25 minutes outside of the care of his team of handlers.

(09-23-2020 09:21 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-23-2020 08:51 AM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  

(09-23-2020 08:43 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  So now the polls are accurate again?

You guys REALLY need to make up your minds!

Every Florida poll since 2016 has oversampled Democrats by at least 4 points...that's the point we're making. Take any poll and add +4 R.

But you're likely making an inaccurate assumption that the electorate is equal between D's and R's and it's not. More people identify as D's nationally (not positive on just Florida). So pretty much every poll is going to poll more democrats than republicans, because more self-identify as such. You can't just add 4 points.

why not? that's what polls represent....or have ewe not seen the county by county map....

ewe faggoos are gonna git ya arse handed to ya..........the best part is, ya know it going in.....

#fonzies

(09-23-2020 08:43 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  So now the polls are accurate again?

You guys REALLY need to make up your minds!

Dem talking points out yet?

(09-23-2020 08:43 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  So now the polls are accurate again?

You guys REALLY need to make up your minds!

Nope, not accurate at all. They always oversample Dems. Add 4 points for Trump on every poll you read and you'll be a lot closer to the actual election results.

(09-23-2020 10:02 AM)BuffaloTN Wrote:  

(09-23-2020 08:43 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  So now the polls are accurate again?

You guys REALLY need to make up your minds!

Dem talking points out yet?

like the old Heinz 'catch-up' commie com......yeah, I'm chomping on the bit for the nexus of 'next'....

these stupid fks are clueless....

(09-23-2020 09:21 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-23-2020 08:51 AM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  

(09-23-2020 08:43 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  So now the polls are accurate again?

You guys REALLY need to make up your minds!

Every Florida poll since 2016 has oversampled Democrats by at least 4 points...that's the point we're making. Take any poll and add +4 R.

But you're likely making an inaccurate assumption that the electorate is equal between D's and R's and it's not. More people identify as D's nationally (not positive on just Florida). So pretty much every poll is going to poll more democrats than republicans, because more self-identify as such. You can't just add 4 points.

So there's "The People" the Hive have been talking about the last few days.

(09-23-2020 08:51 AM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  

(09-23-2020 08:43 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  So now the polls are accurate again?

You guys REALLY need to make up your minds!

Every Florida poll since 2016 has oversampled Democrats by at least 4 points...that's the point we're making. Take any poll and add +4 R.

This seems to be an "outlier," but the trajectory of the polls are favoring Trump.

The polls are still seriously over-sampling dems. The issue is that some of the dem demographic (hispanics, blacks) have moved significantly to Trump. Also, independents (true indi's not CommieTom Indi) are going for Trump by about 10 points.

What would be more interesting to know is how many Dems ARE NOT voting for Biden and how many Reps ARE NOT voting for Trump...........

The ACTUAL sample of this poll in Florida.

Quote:Partisan divisions – Democrats-Republicans-independents – are 28-31-35 percent among
registered voters and 30-35-29 percent among likely voters in Florida

https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-conten...s-FLAZ.pdf

So, likely voters polled were 35% republican and 30% democrat.

And from February...

Quote:With the March 17 presidential primaries fast approaching, Florida is preparing for a major election year. Here is a look at voter-registration numbers, as of Dec. 31:

— 13,536,830, the number of registered voters in Florida.

— 4,986,520, the number of registered Democrats.

— 4,761,405, the number of registered Republicans.

https://www.wuft.org/news/2020/02/10/by-...da-voters/

Oops.

(09-23-2020 11:07 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  The ACTUAL sample of this poll in Florida.

Quote:Partisan divisions – Democrats-Republicans-independents – are 28-31-35 percent among
registered voters and 30-35-29 percent among likely voters in Florida

https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-conten...s-FLAZ.pdf

So, likely voters polled were 35% republican and 30% democrat.

And from February...

Quote:With the March 17 presidential primaries fast approaching, Florida is preparing for a major election year. Here is a look at voter-registration numbers, as of Dec. 31:

— 13,536,830, the number of registered voters in Florida.

— 4,986,520, the number of registered Democrats.

— 4,761,405, the number of registered Republicans.

https://www.wuft.org/news/2020/02/10/by-...da-voters/

Oops.

the only oops is you'll be looking for a job in the not to distant future....

@oops

(09-23-2020 08:43 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  So now the polls are accurate again?

You guys REALLY need to make up your minds!

lol. The polls remain inaccurate, however, they are useful in detecting trends. Its clear the electorate is moving toward Trump. We already know the polls tend to badly under count Trump voters---so if these polls says Trump is up, then Trump is probably up by a MUCH larger margin that the poll reflects. The typical polls have been 35-45% Democrat, so if this one is 35-30 in favor of Republicans, it might be accurate since that would tend to offset the tendency of some Trump voters to deny they actually support Trump as there is nothing good that can come from telling a stranger on the phone you support Trump (with violent Democrat brown shirt mobs ruling the streets, I cant say that I blame them).

(09-23-2020 11:07 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  The ACTUAL sample of this poll in Florida.

Quote:Partisan divisions – Democrats-Republicans-independents – are 28-31-35 percent among
registered voters and 30-35-29 percent among likely voters in Florida

https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-conten...s-FLAZ.pdf

So, likely voters polled were 35% republican and 30% democrat.

And from February...

Quote:With the March 17 presidential primaries fast approaching, Florida is preparing for a major election year. Here is a look at voter-registration numbers, as of Dec. 31:

— 13,536,830, the number of registered voters in Florida.

— 4,986,520, the number of registered Democrats.

— 4,761,405, the number of registered Republicans.

https://www.wuft.org/news/2020/02/10/by-...da-voters/

Oops.

From the first link

Quote:In both states, while Biden is strong among moderates, fewer liberals appear as likely voters compared with the 2016 exit polls. Conservatives account for nearly four in 10 voters; liberals, about two in 10.

Sounds like a lot of dems planning to stay home. If true, Fl won't be close.

(09-23-2020 11:12 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-23-2020 08:43 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  So now the polls are accurate again?

You guys REALLY need to make up your minds!

lol. The polls remain inaccurate, however, they are useful in detecting trends. Its clear the electorate is moving toward Trump. We already know the polls tend to badly under count Trump voters---so if these polls says Trump is up, then Trump is probably up by a MUCH larger margin that the poll reflects. The typical polls have been 35-45% Democrat, so if this one is 35-30 in favor of Republicans, it might be accurate since that would tend to offset the tendency of some Trump voters to deny they actually support Trump as there is nothing good that can come from telling a stranger on the phone you support Trump (with violent Democrat brown shirt mobs ruling the streets, I cant say that I blame them).

therefore, when in a round room, ya end up discovering there isn't a corner to hide or bark....

(09-23-2020 11:07 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  The ACTUAL sample of this poll in Florida.

Quote:Partisan divisions – Democrats-Republicans-independents – are 28-31-35 percent among
registered voters and 30-35-29 percent among likely voters in Florida

https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-conten...s-FLAZ.pdf

So, likely voters polled were 35% republican and 30% democrat.

And from February...

Quote:With the March 17 presidential primaries fast approaching, Florida is preparing for a major election year. Here is a look at voter-registration numbers, as of Dec. 31:

— 13,536,830, the number of registered voters in Florida.

— 4,986,520, the number of registered Democrats.

— 4,761,405, the number of registered Republicans.

https://www.wuft.org/news/2020/02/10/by-...da-voters/

Oops.

So your finally admitting that all those polls that have a survey pool made up of 35-45% Dems with just 20-25% Republicans actually WERE flawed and were little more than fake news?

(09-23-2020 11:19 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-23-2020 11:07 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  The ACTUAL sample of this poll in Florida.

Quote:Partisan divisions – Democrats-Republicans-independents – are 28-31-35 percent among
registered voters and 30-35-29 percent among likely voters in Florida

https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-conten...s-FLAZ.pdf

So, likely voters polled were 35% republican and 30% democrat.

And from February...

Quote:With the March 17 presidential primaries fast approaching, Florida is preparing for a major election year. Here is a look at voter-registration numbers, as of Dec. 31:

— 13,536,830, the number of registered voters in Florida.

— 4,986,520, the number of registered Democrats.

— 4,761,405, the number of registered Republicans.

https://www.wuft.org/news/2020/02/10/by-...da-voters/

Oops.

So your finally admitting that all those polls that have a survey pool made up of 35-45% Dems with just 20-25% Republicans actually WERE flawed and were little more than fake news?

First, not sure where there's ever been a poll posted here that sampled 45% democrats, but whatever.

And no, those other polls were not flawed. They all have a margin of error in them. And AGAIN, more people identify as democrat. And as I cited, more were registered in Florida as of 12/31/19. So you'll most likely always have more democrats in any poll taken in America.

Trump is going to lose the election I earnestly believe . But these polls are way off and it will be closer than what we are seeing.