(09-23-2020 12:56 PM)gdunn Wrote:  

(09-23-2020 12:48 PM)domer1978 Wrote:  

(09-23-2020 12:44 PM)miko33 Wrote:  Anyone who votes for or against a candidate because of his/her personality and not based on the issues is an idiot. But seriously, I'm coming across people who were Dems and soured on them over the big move to the left, support of domestic terrorists and allowing major cities to become sh!tholes. Also, I'm hearing from people who support American manufacturing as trusting in Trump to continue keeping American jobs safe - and possibly bringing back more mfg jobs back to America.

I agree, but look at our culture is it a surprise people vote this way? Logic and investigation is not at the forefront of thought. I pray you are correct and my andecttal evidence is wrong. But i am not hopeful because all i hear is 2016, 2016 and this ain't 2016 anymore. Even a severely diminished Biden is more popular than Hillary.

He's only more popular because he's not Trump.

Honestly.. Tell me why Biden without mentioning Trump.

But you say your vote doesn't count and you say you're in Cali...

I disagree.. Your vote counts. No matter who you vote for your vote counts.

The only reason i have heard from my sister is Biden ain't Trump (Her husband committed to voting Biden and her two kids also). She thinks Biden is a complete idiot. People underestimate the power of the media. People like my family get news off of CNN or Facebook. They read a headlines and bam they are informed. It is flippin maddening.

Again I hope this turns out to be anecdotal and wrong. But this polls are not positive in anyway.

delete

(09-23-2020 11:27 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-23-2020 11:19 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-23-2020 11:07 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  The ACTUAL sample of this poll in Florida.

Quote:Partisan divisions – Democrats-Republicans-independents – are 28-31-35 percent among
registered voters and 30-35-29 percent among likely voters in Florida

https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-conten...s-FLAZ.pdf

So, likely voters polled were 35% republican and 30% democrat.

And from February...

Quote:With the March 17 presidential primaries fast approaching, Florida is preparing for a major election year. Here is a look at voter-registration numbers, as of Dec. 31:

— 13,536,830, the number of registered voters in Florida.

— 4,986,520, the number of registered Democrats.

— 4,761,405, the number of registered Republicans.

https://www.wuft.org/news/2020/02/10/by-...da-voters/

Oops.

So your finally admitting that all those polls that have a survey pool made up of 35-45% Dems with just 20-25% Republicans actually WERE flawed and were little more than fake news?

First, not sure where there's ever been a poll posted here that sampled 45% democrats, but whatever.

And no, those other polls were not flawed. They all have a margin of error in them. And AGAIN, more people identify as democrat. And as I cited, more were registered in Florida as of 12/31/19. So you'll most likely always have more democrats in any poll taken in America.

lol...the difference is very small----its certainly not a 20%-35% difference like the fake news survey pools (btw---the recent town halls were yet another exercise fake news survey pool fixing). Look, if it didnt matter, the fake news media would simply do survey pools that mirrored the actual true distribution. I laugh at people who just cant figure out why the polls were so wrong in 2016. All you had to do is look at the survey pools they used to see it was garbage in/garbage out polling.

(09-23-2020 01:55 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-23-2020 11:27 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-23-2020 11:19 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-23-2020 11:07 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  The ACTUAL sample of this poll in Florida.

Quote:Partisan divisions – Democrats-Republicans-independents – are 28-31-35 percent among
registered voters and 30-35-29 percent among likely voters in Florida

https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-conten...s-FLAZ.pdf

So, likely voters polled were 35% republican and 30% democrat.

And from February...

Quote:With the March 17 presidential primaries fast approaching, Florida is preparing for a major election year. Here is a look at voter-registration numbers, as of Dec. 31:

— 13,536,830, the number of registered voters in Florida.

— 4,986,520, the number of registered Democrats.

— 4,761,405, the number of registered Republicans.

https://www.wuft.org/news/2020/02/10/by-...da-voters/

Oops.

So your finally admitting that all those polls that have a survey pool made up of 35-45% Dems with just 20-25% Republicans actually WERE flawed and were little more than fake news?

First, not sure where there's ever been a poll posted here that sampled 45% democrats, but whatever.

And no, those other polls were not flawed. They all have a margin of error in them. And AGAIN, more people identify as democrat. And as I cited, more were registered in Florida as of 12/31/19. So you'll most likely always have more democrats in any poll taken in America.

lol...the difference is very small----its certainly not a 20%-35% difference like the fake news survey pools (btw---the recent town halls were yet another exercise fake news survey pool fixing). Look, if it didnt matter, the fake news media would simply do survey pools that mirrored the actual true distribution. I laugh at people who just cant figure out why the polls were so wrong in 2016. All you had to do is look at the survey pools they used to see it was garbage in/garbage out polling.

Not sure what you're laughing at, my only point is that this poll did not oversample democrats as was alleged. If anything, it WAY oversampled republicans.

Pollsters don't call republicans and democrats and independents looking for an even or pre-defined split. They call voters and report the results they're told.

2016 was most likely off because the respondents lied about who they would vote for. Or maybe because Russia hacked voting systems and changed votes. j/k.

If you want more proof that pollsters skew the polls, look no further than the 2016 democratic primaries.

If Bernie Sanders were to defeat Hillary Clinton in Michigan’s Democratic primary, it would be “among the greatest polling errors in primary history,” our editor in chief, Nate Silver, wrote Tuesday evening when results started to come in. Sanders pulled it off, and now we’re left wondering how it happened. How did Sanders win by 1.5 percentage points when our polling average showed Clinton ahead by 21 points and our forecasts showed that Sanders had less than a 1 percent chance of winning?

Only missed by 22 points. And this wasnt due to this mismatch between parties; both HIllary and Bernie voters were as likely to respond (or even be selected to respond) to that poll. Yet it was off by 22 points.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why...gan-upset/

(09-23-2020 02:01 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-23-2020 01:55 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-23-2020 11:27 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-23-2020 11:19 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-23-2020 11:07 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  The ACTUAL sample of this poll in Florida.

https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-conten...s-FLAZ.pdf

So, likely voters polled were 35% republican and 30% democrat.

And from February...

https://www.wuft.org/news/2020/02/10/by-...da-voters/

Oops.

So your finally admitting that all those polls that have a survey pool made up of 35-45% Dems with just 20-25% Republicans actually WERE flawed and were little more than fake news?

First, not sure where there's ever been a poll posted here that sampled 45% democrats, but whatever.

And no, those other polls were not flawed. They all have a margin of error in them. And AGAIN, more people identify as democrat. And as I cited, more were registered in Florida as of 12/31/19. So you'll most likely always have more democrats in any poll taken in America.

lol...the difference is very small----its certainly not a 20%-35% difference like the fake news survey pools (btw---the recent town halls were yet another exercise fake news survey pool fixing). Look, if it didnt matter, the fake news media would simply do survey pools that mirrored the actual true distribution. I laugh at people who just cant figure out why the polls were so wrong in 2016. All you had to do is look at the survey pools they used to see it was garbage in/garbage out polling.

Not sure what you're laughing at, my only point is that this poll did not oversample democrats as was alleged. If anything, it WAY oversampled republicans.

Pollsters don't call republicans and democrats and independents looking for an even or pre-defined split. They call voters and report the results they're told.

2016 was most likely off because the respondents lied about who they would vote for. Or maybe because Russia hacked voting systems and changed votes. j/k.

Russia spent all their money on Hunter Biden

(09-23-2020 02:01 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-23-2020 01:55 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-23-2020 11:27 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-23-2020 11:19 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-23-2020 11:07 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  The ACTUAL sample of this poll in Florida.

https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-conten...s-FLAZ.pdf

So, likely voters polled were 35% republican and 30% democrat.

And from February...

https://www.wuft.org/news/2020/02/10/by-...da-voters/

Oops.

So your finally admitting that all those polls that have a survey pool made up of 35-45% Dems with just 20-25% Republicans actually WERE flawed and were little more than fake news?

First, not sure where there's ever been a poll posted here that sampled 45% democrats, but whatever.

And no, those other polls were not flawed. They all have a margin of error in them. And AGAIN, more people identify as democrat. And as I cited, more were registered in Florida as of 12/31/19. So you'll most likely always have more democrats in any poll taken in America.

lol...the difference is very small----its certainly not a 20%-35% difference like the fake news survey pools (btw---the recent town halls were yet another exercise fake news survey pool fixing). Look, if it didnt matter, the fake news media would simply do survey pools that mirrored the actual true distribution. I laugh at people who just cant figure out why the polls were so wrong in 2016. All you had to do is look at the survey pools they used to see it was garbage in/garbage out polling.

Not sure what you're laughing at, my only point is that this poll did not oversample democrats as was alleged. If anything, it WAY oversampled republicans.

Pollsters don't call republicans and democrats and independents looking for an even or pre-defined split. They call voters and report the results they're told.

2016 was most likely off because the respondents lied about who they would vote for. Or maybe because Russia hacked voting systems and changed votes. j/k.

Im laughing at you defending past polls with 20-35% more Democrats than Republicans. That said, I would agree that this poll over samples Republicans. One thing I would point out is that there is a hidden Trump vote, so there is at least a reasonable logic to over sample republicans---though I think this too much. Frankly, I'd prefer to match the actual Rep/Dem/Indy voter roll percentage and let the chips fall where they may. We can guesstimate a percent or two extra for Trump due to the tendency of some Trump supporters to avoid admitting they support him.

(09-23-2020 02:01 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-23-2020 01:55 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-23-2020 11:27 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-23-2020 11:19 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-23-2020 11:07 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  The ACTUAL sample of this poll in Florida.

https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-conten...s-FLAZ.pdf

So, likely voters polled were 35% republican and 30% democrat.

And from February...

https://www.wuft.org/news/2020/02/10/by-...da-voters/

Oops.

So your finally admitting that all those polls that have a survey pool made up of 35-45% Dems with just 20-25% Republicans actually WERE flawed and were little more than fake news?

First, not sure where there's ever been a poll posted here that sampled 45% democrats, but whatever.

And no, those other polls were not flawed. They all have a margin of error in them. And AGAIN, more people identify as democrat. And as I cited, more were registered in Florida as of 12/31/19. So you'll most likely always have more democrats in any poll taken in America.

lol...the difference is very small----its certainly not a 20%-35% difference like the fake news survey pools (btw---the recent town halls were yet another exercise fake news survey pool fixing). Look, if it didnt matter, the fake news media would simply do survey pools that mirrored the actual true distribution. I laugh at people who just cant figure out why the polls were so wrong in 2016. All you had to do is look at the survey pools they used to see it was garbage in/garbage out polling.

Not sure what you're laughing at, my only point is that this poll did not oversample democrats as was alleged. If anything, it WAY oversampled republicans.

Pollsters don't call republicans and democrats and independents looking for an even or pre-defined split. They call voters and report the results they're told.

2016 was most likely off because the respondents lied about who they would vote for. Or maybe because Russia hacked voting systems and changed votes. j/k.

Registered voters mean nothing. You have to go off of turnout and likely voters. FL has gone republican 8 out of the last 12 cycles. So even with a registered voter advantage, democrats fail to turn them out.

AND

Trump is overperforming among blacks and hispanics, and Biden is underperforming Clinton in Dade county. This has the feel of a 3% to 5% win for Trump.

(09-23-2020 08:43 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  So now the polls are accurate again?

You guys REALLY need to make up your minds!

Last election Killery had Trump by the Nadlers and it seemed that she was gonna win. Even she was surprised. So if this election SlowJoe is barely winning it only means that the real poll, the one where people go vote will just be a landslide for Trump. By the way, for someone that's not a Demoncrap you sure are interested in this election for Obite'em.

(09-23-2020 01:00 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  

(09-23-2020 12:34 PM)domer1978 Wrote:  Because I think Trump will lose? No I am a moderate who central issue in voting is abortion. I can never vote for the Democrats because of this issue. I have been remarkable consistent. I am a former left-winger who who drifted right because of the issue of abortion.

I apologize for labeling you a liberal. I understand how offensive that is.
I was wrong. When I’m wrong I say I’m wrong.

No worries.

(09-23-2020 01:00 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  

(09-23-2020 12:34 PM)domer1978 Wrote:  Because I think Trump will lose? No I am a moderate who central issue in voting is abortion. I can never vote for the Democrats because of this issue. I have been remarkable consistent. I am a former left-winger who who drifted right because of the issue of abortion.

I apologize for labeling you a liberal. I understand how offensive that is.
I was wrong. When I’m wrong I say I’m wrong.

I'm a liberal and proud of it. I use the classical definitions of liberal (less government, more freedom) and conservative (more government, centralized power). Conservatives were historically the people who defended the feudal system and divine right. I see it as more a two-dimensional diagram than a simple left or right line. Something like this (my BBS skills are limited, so I hope this shows up):

Conservative (more government)
^
|
Left----------------------------Right
|
V
Liberal (less government, more freedom)

In that diagram, I am pretty clearly in the lower right or southeast corner. I would put neocons like GW Bush in the upper right or northeast corner. I would put most democrats in the upper left corner.

Abortion is not a huge issue with me, and my stance is somewhat moderate. I would allow it in certain cases and prohibit it in others. I don't support either abortion-on-demand or the total legal prohibition. I can understand why it could be a huge issue for any domer, it's just not one for me.

I do support a balanced budget, a consumption tax, lower and flatter and broader income taxes, a subsistence level universal basic income and Bismarck universal private health care/insurance instead of the current welfare plantation/poverty trap, economic growth as the best solution to income and wealth issues, and a strong military but no military involvement in limited no-win wars.

(09-23-2020 02:13 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  If you want more proof that pollsters skew the polls, look no further than the 2016 democratic primaries.

If Bernie Sanders were to defeat Hillary Clinton in Michigan’s Democratic primary, it would be “among the greatest polling errors in primary history,” our editor in chief, Nate Silver, wrote Tuesday evening when results started to come in. Sanders pulled it off, and now we’re left wondering how it happened. How did Sanders win by 1.5 percentage points when our polling average showed Clinton ahead by 21 points and our forecasts showed that Sanders had less than a 1 percent chance of winning?

Only missed by 22 points. And this wasnt due to this mismatch between parties; both HIllary and Bernie voters were as likely to respond (or even be selected to respond) to that poll. Yet it was off by 22 points.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why...gan-upset/

^^^

@payattention

What good is winning FL if you lose AZ & a couple midwest states?

(09-24-2020 05:57 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  What good is winning FL if you lose AZ & a couple midwest states?

Win FL, NC and PA and you have 269. Throw in NH or NV and you're there. 269 probably does it as well.

I think we will know how things are going by comparing 2016 to 2020 margins

Fox news poll. These are wild.

FOX NEWS POLLS ??
NV: Biden 52%, Trump 41%
OH: Biden 50%, Trump 45%
PA: Biden 51%, Trump 44%
All among likely voters

(09-24-2020 07:21 PM)domer1978 Wrote:  Fox news poll. These are wild.

FOX NEWS POLLS ??
NV: Biden 52%, Trump 41%
OH: Biden 50%, Trump 45%
PA: Biden 51%, Trump 44%
All among likely voters

bwahahahaha....

#rinserepeat'16

(09-24-2020 07:21 PM)domer1978 Wrote:  Fox news poll. These are wild.

FOX NEWS POLLS ??
NV: Biden 52%, Trump 41%
OH: Biden 50%, Trump 45%
PA: Biden 51%, Trump 44%
All among likely voters

https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/1043848921158701056

WHAT MATTERS IS HOW YOU SEE YOURSELF

I havent seen the last FoxNews breakdown, but the one before this had a 49% democratic sample. So feel sorry for those on the left that get a tingle down their legs over this.