(08-04-2020 09:03 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  

(08-04-2020 08:34 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(08-04-2020 07:38 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  I've just read that the NCAA is one step closer to losing the Alston case, altogether. Very soon, the NCAA will not be able to stem the tide that is going to wash all over college sports (and, along the way, amateur sports in general). Is the time coming for college sports to separate itself from undergraduate and post-graduate education or will this lead to an Olympics-type model?

In any case, this is going to overshadow much of everything else. After the plandemic is over, the subject of breakaway and reorganizing college sports will take precedence. What is going to be the new relationship between the colleges and universities and the student-athletes? What will college sports look like in five years? These questions will have to be answered before we get to the meat and bones of where the programs will be next.

Do you happen to have a link to that verified information?

The original decision was made on March of 2019.

Thanks!
I always wondered how we would get to a 32 team super conference described in the FOX article that now has seemed to disappeared from the internet.
If conferences and individual schools can limit, but the NCAA can't, then the separation may be: not the P5 in it's entirety but a segment of the P5, leaving some schools behind to re-form conferences that will still limit expenditures while the Penn States and Alabamas can move on to create their own "professional" league.
The legal question would be can you have unlimited pay for football and still compete in other sports in a conference that has restrictions on other sports?

Not going to open a thread on this because I think it's part of the sober analysis of what is going on with college sports and where it might go. So I'm going to post it here.

I think how the Big Ten has reacted to the issue of playing through the plandemic is revealing a strategic weakness within the leadership culture that will eventually lead into an unplanned and shocking demise of the conference. The pressure from athletic people, fans and donors clashing with leadership coupled with the cultural myopia of the leadership, who are more concerned with getting good write-ups from the MSM and academic think tanks than addressing the fans and athletic people, will be cited as the catalyst of the break up of one of the longest-running and historical athletic orgs in American sports. Future historians will study this as a test case of understanding how a big athletic conference falls.

Many Big Ten fans will deny this but I now think it's going to happen. This question is what will come next. Lots of scenarios might fall out of this but I think the most likely outcome is all 14 programs will find homes in the P4.

I base this on:

- Presidents still control the accession process and, while academics won't be as prominent in the emerging paradigm as before, it doesn't mean it becomes a non-factor. They like to associate with those they aspire to achieve

- 13 of 14 programs belong to AAU institutions and the 14th is Nebraska, a historical football program even though they've declined in the last few years

- While recruiting has diminished in Big Ten territory in the past few decades the Midwest and Northeast still have lot of eyeballs and potential watchers of games

- Getting into more states means more representatives and Senators to lobby for funds

- Even the lowlier programs have value that surpasses the vast majority of programs in the group below them. They may not be football powerhouses but they can bring other attributes that enhance the acquiring conferences. See my first point

- The PAC will stay the same, as there's no economic justification for adding or subtracting programs

- They'd want to wrap everything up before college sports becomes too regional to even matter

How it would break down:

- Most likely is that territory east of the Mississippi River be shared between the ACC and SEC, with two exceptions:

a) In the east, West Virginia is isolated but they provide the Big 12 with an island. Maryland and Rutgers joining with WVU would provide an in with the eastern markets that the ACC decide not to bring in

b) adding Louisiana to Texas as shared between the SEC and Big 12

- The football powers will most likely head to the SEC. It's a question whether State Penn would side with Ohio State or go to play Pitt and Syracuse annually. But for the sake of this exercise I'm going to assume that they go with the ACC and that Notre Dame is convinced to go fully in for good

- The states of Illinois and Indiana will be split between the SEC and ACC. Reasons being that Ohio State has a good association with Illinois and Indiana/Kentucky basketball is a good rivalry. The state of Illinois outside Chicago does lean red, so culturally they wouldn't be so out of place in the SEC, while Northwestern is more culturally closer to the ACC. I'm ignoring ND, as they're more of a national program than a regional one

- To help seal the deal, Missouri and Arkansas agree to make the switch to the Big 12

- The Big Ten refugees go to the Big 12 knowing that a Big Ten without the Michigans, Ohio State and Wisconsin is no longer a major conference. It would be viable as a G conference if they're forced to stay but their other attributes and the other presidents' reluctance to bring up other G programs would make them pick up opportunities


Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Illinois
Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina
Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, LSU, Texas A&M

Boston College, Miami, Syracuse, Penn State, Pitt, Notre Dame
NC State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest
Purdue, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Florida State, Northwestern

West Virginia, Rutgers, Maryland, Iowa, Iowa State, Minnesota
Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas State, Tulane, Arkansas, Missouri
Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

(08-16-2020 12:21 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  Not going to open a thread on this because I think it's part of the sober analysis of what is going on with college sports and where it might go. So I'm going to post it here.

I think how the Big Ten has reacted to the issue of playing through the plandemic is revealing a strategic weakness within the leadership culture that will eventually lead into an unplanned and shocking demise of the conference. The pressure from athletic people, fans and donors clashing with leadership coupled with the cultural myopia of the leadership, who are more concerned with getting good write-ups from the MSM and academic think tanks than addressing the fans and athletic people, will be cited as the catalyst of the break up of one of the longest-running and historical athletic orgs in American sports. Future historians will study this as a test case of understanding how a big athletic conference falls.

Many Big Ten fans will deny this but I now think it's going to happen. This question is what will come next. Lots of scenarios might fall out of this but I think the most likely outcome is all 14 programs will find homes in the P4.

I base this on:

- Presidents still control the accession process and, while academics won't be as prominent in the emerging paradigm as before, it doesn't mean it becomes a non-factor. They like to associate with those they aspire to achieve

- 13 of 14 programs belong to AAU institutions and the 14th is Nebraska, a historical football program even though they've declined in the last few years

- While recruiting has diminished in Big Ten territory in the past few decades the Midwest and Northeast still have lot of eyeballs and potential watchers of games

- Getting into more states means more representatives and Senators to lobby for funds

- Even the lowlier programs have value that surpasses the vast majority of programs in the group below them. They may not be football powerhouses but they can bring other attributes that enhance the acquiring conferences. See my first point

- The PAC will stay the same, as there's no economic justification for adding or subtracting programs

- They'd want to wrap everything up before college sports becomes too regional to even matter

How it would break down:

- Most likely is that territory east of the Mississippi River be shared between the ACC and SEC, with two exceptions:

a) In the east, West Virginia is isolated but they provide the Big 12 with an island. Maryland and Rutgers joining with WVU would provide an in with the eastern markets that the ACC decide not to bring in

b) adding Louisiana to Texas as shared between the SEC and Big 12

- The football powers will most likely head to the SEC. It's a question whether State Penn would side with Ohio State or go to play Pitt and Syracuse annually. But for the sake of this exercise I'm going to assume that they go with the ACC and that Notre Dame is convinced to go fully in for good

- The states of Illinois and Indiana will be split between the SEC and ACC. Reasons being that Ohio State has a good association with Illinois and Indiana/Kentucky basketball is a good rivalry. The state of Illinois outside Chicago does lean red, so culturally they wouldn't be so out of place in the SEC, while Northwestern is more culturally closer to the ACC. I'm ignoring ND, as they're more of a national program than a regional one

- To help seal the deal, Missouri and Arkansas agree to make the switch to the Big 12

- The Big Ten refugees go to the Big 12 knowing that a Big Ten without the Michigans, Ohio State and Wisconsin is no longer a major conference. It would be viable as a G conference if they're forced to stay but their other attributes and the other presidents' reluctance to bring up other G programs would make them pick up opportunities


Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Illinois
Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina
Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, LSU, Texas A&M

Boston College, Miami, Syracuse, Penn State, Pitt, Notre Dame
NC State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest
Purdue, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Florida State, Northwestern

West Virginia, Rutgers, Maryland, Iowa, Iowa State, Minnesota
Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas State, Tulane, Arkansas, Missouri
Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

If you truly feel that the B1G is falling apart, the most likely scenario would have to go back and circle the wagons around the 10 schools we once knew as the Big Ten.
In fact you could do that for all of the original conferences that now comprise the P5 and see where today their expansion schools would go if the actually had the chance.
Would Pitt still move to the ACC or wait for the Big Ten.
Nebraska......second thoughts?
Was the SEC the right move for Arkansas & Missouri?
Should Florida State and South Carolina swap places.
Would Louisville be a more natural fit for the SEC?
And of course there is always West Virginia.

(08-22-2020 08:27 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(08-16-2020 12:21 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  Not going to open a thread on this because I think it's part of the sober analysis of what is going on with college sports and where it might go. So I'm going to post it here.

I think how the Big Ten has reacted to the issue of playing through the plandemic is revealing a strategic weakness within the leadership culture that will eventually lead into an unplanned and shocking demise of the conference. The pressure from athletic people, fans and donors clashing with leadership coupled with the cultural myopia of the leadership, who are more concerned with getting good write-ups from the MSM and academic think tanks than addressing the fans and athletic people, will be cited as the catalyst of the break up of one of the longest-running and historical athletic orgs in American sports. Future historians will study this as a test case of understanding how a big athletic conference falls.

Many Big Ten fans will deny this but I now think it's going to happen. This question is what will come next. Lots of scenarios might fall out of this but I think the most likely outcome is all 14 programs will find homes in the P4.

I base this on:

- Presidents still control the accession process and, while academics won't be as prominent in the emerging paradigm as before, it doesn't mean it becomes a non-factor. They like to associate with those they aspire to achieve

- 13 of 14 programs belong to AAU institutions and the 14th is Nebraska, a historical football program even though they've declined in the last few years

- While recruiting has diminished in Big Ten territory in the past few decades the Midwest and Northeast still have lot of eyeballs and potential watchers of games

- Getting into more states means more representatives and Senators to lobby for funds

- Even the lowlier programs have value that surpasses the vast majority of programs in the group below them. They may not be football powerhouses but they can bring other attributes that enhance the acquiring conferences. See my first point

- The PAC will stay the same, as there's no economic justification for adding or subtracting programs

- They'd want to wrap everything up before college sports becomes too regional to even matter

How it would break down:

- Most likely is that territory east of the Mississippi River be shared between the ACC and SEC, with two exceptions:

a) In the east, West Virginia is isolated but they provide the Big 12 with an island. Maryland and Rutgers joining with WVU would provide an in with the eastern markets that the ACC decide not to bring in

b) adding Louisiana to Texas as shared between the SEC and Big 12

- The football powers will most likely head to the SEC. It's a question whether State Penn would side with Ohio State or go to play Pitt and Syracuse annually. But for the sake of this exercise I'm going to assume that they go with the ACC and that Notre Dame is convinced to go fully in for good

- The states of Illinois and Indiana will be split between the SEC and ACC. Reasons being that Ohio State has a good association with Illinois and Indiana/Kentucky basketball is a good rivalry. The state of Illinois outside Chicago does lean red, so culturally they wouldn't be so out of place in the SEC, while Northwestern is more culturally closer to the ACC. I'm ignoring ND, as they're more of a national program than a regional one

- To help seal the deal, Missouri and Arkansas agree to make the switch to the Big 12

- The Big Ten refugees go to the Big 12 knowing that a Big Ten without the Michigans, Ohio State and Wisconsin is no longer a major conference. It would be viable as a G conference if they're forced to stay but their other attributes and the other presidents' reluctance to bring up other G programs would make them pick up opportunities


Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Illinois
Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina
Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, LSU, Texas A&M

Boston College, Miami, Syracuse, Penn State, Pitt, Notre Dame
NC State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest
Purdue, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Florida State, Northwestern

West Virginia, Rutgers, Maryland, Iowa, Iowa State, Minnesota
Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas State, Tulane, Arkansas, Missouri
Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

If you truly feel that the B1G is falling apart, the most likely scenario would have to go back and circle the wagons around the 10 schools we once knew as the Big Ten.
In fact you could do that for all of the original conferences that now comprise the P5 and see where today their expansion schools would go if the actually had the chance.
Would Pitt still move to the ACC or wait for the Big Ten.
Nebraska......second thoughts?
Was the SEC the right move for Arkansas & Missouri?
Should Florida State and South Carolina swap places.
Would Louisville be a more natural fit for the SEC?
And of course there is always West Virginia.

Going back to older alignments might appeal to nostalgic fans but doesn't address the long-term issues that helped to create the last round of realignment. The migration of people away from the industrial states to the sun belt states is part of it. Another part is none of the Big Ten originals are going to accept the slide toward MAC-level competitiveness. You could say the same thing about other programs like South Carolina or Missouri. Even if populations were almost evenly spread, it doesn't mean the sporting cultures in each region is amenable to nearby recruiting.

Now, a desire to protect what fertile recruiting areas there are would be a reason for certain conferences to halt expansion but the flip side is that presidents look for reasons beyond sports to determine whether a prospective program is a fit. I think it's in this area that presidents would find Big Ten schools appealing, whether they are football schools, basketball schools, or somewhere in between.

If anyone has learned anything from the last few weeks it’s The Big Ten isn’t immune from internal strife. As a fan of Southern football it would be easy for me to point, laugh and say I told you so but that wouldn’t be right.

The reality is if The Big 12, ACC and SEC play this season The Big Ten could suffer lasting damage to the working relationships within the conference.

Do Nebraska, Iowa and Ohio State look to leave The Big Ten? It is certainly something unheard of just a month ago.

(08-23-2020 07:43 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  If anyone has learned anything from the last few weeks it’s The Big Ten isn’t immune from internal strife. As a fan of Southern football it would be easy for me to point, laugh and say I told you so but that wouldn’t be right.

The reality is if The Big 12, ACC and SEC play this season The Big Ten could suffer lasting damage to the working relationships within the conference.

Do Nebraska, Iowa and Ohio State look to leave The Big Ten? It is certainly something unheard of just a month ago.

CJ, I could realistically see Nebraska leaving even without the COVID aspect (and they should).
As much as the Nebraska folks have tried........well they just need to go home.
Iowa and Ohio State may make a lot of noise, but I really don't see them leaving, but the two of them along with Penn State, the Indiana schools, Maryland and Rutgers could wrestle a lot of power away from Michigan and Wisconsin.

(08-23-2020 08:26 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(08-23-2020 07:43 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  If anyone has learned anything from the last few weeks it’s The Big Ten isn’t immune from internal strife. As a fan of Southern football it would be easy for me to point, laugh and say I told you so but that wouldn’t be right.

The reality is if The Big 12, ACC and SEC play this season The Big Ten could suffer lasting damage to the working relationships within the conference.

Do Nebraska, Iowa and Ohio State look to leave The Big Ten? It is certainly something unheard of just a month ago.

CJ, I could realistically see Nebraska leaving even without the COVID aspect (and they should).
As much as the Nebraska folks have tried........well they just need to go home.
Iowa and Ohio State may make a lot of noise, but I really don't see them leaving, but the two of them along with Penn State, the Indiana schools, Maryland and Rutgers could wrestle a lot of power away from Michigan and Wisconsin.

I know I have said myself that Nebraska needs to return to the Big 12 in the past, but that was short-sighted thinking on my part. Nebraska actually benefits quite a bit being a member of the Big Ten vs being a member of the Big XII, and Nebraska's president knows this.

(08-23-2020 07:43 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  If anyone has learned anything from the last few weeks it’s The Big Ten isn’t immune from internal strife. As a fan of Southern football it would be easy for me to point, laugh and say I told you so but that wouldn’t be right.

The reality is if The Big 12, ACC and SEC play this season The Big Ten could suffer lasting damage to the working relationships within the conference.

Do Nebraska, Iowa and Ohio State look to leave The Big Ten? It is certainly something unheard of just a month ago.

Agreed. I don't think the Big Ten is in any danger of breaking up, but what I do think is that they may not be all that unified when it comes to decisions for a while...

(08-24-2020 07:44 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(08-23-2020 07:43 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  If anyone has learned anything from the last few weeks it’s The Big Ten isn’t immune from internal strife. As a fan of Southern football it would be easy for me to point, laugh and say I told you so but that wouldn’t be right.

The reality is if The Big 12, ACC and SEC play this season The Big Ten could suffer lasting damage to the working relationships within the conference.

Do Nebraska, Iowa and Ohio State look to leave The Big Ten? It is certainly something unheard of just a month ago.

Agreed. I don't think the Big Ten is in any danger of breaking up, but what I do think is that they may not be all that unified when it comes to decisions for a while...

I'm not so sure that they are safe from break up.

1. I think the model o a conference being academic first and athletic second is way to constrictive on the future of their athletic programs. All AAU schools are free to have associations beyond the boundaries of athletic conferences. By holding the athletic aspect of the Big 10 fairly rigidly to the academic association they have hampered the conferences ability to adapt to a changing market place.

2. Demographics have changed, particularly in the areas of the country richest in recruits. And especially richest in recruits for football which clearly is the sports leader at Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa, Nebraska and Wisconsin. Separate the political divides in that grouping and you have a subdivision within the sports orientation division.

3. Right now the seven schools listed in #2 are carrying the 7 schools not listed there and the annual Gross Total Revenue figures, WSJ valuations, and attendance numbers, and TV ratings illustrate this clearly. The latter 7 are much more valuable on their own than the whole. Those 7 would be better off just playing each other and the TV networks would love that value. Add in regular games against Notre Dame, Clemson, Florida State, the top SEC programs and Texas and Oklahoma and the values would be stunning. What's more their AD's know this.

4. I would argue that the academic association is what has held them together this long. But I would also argue that the division between these schools over pay for play for athletes will be much deeper than anyone suspects and that Warren's controversial decision may have much more to do with that than with politics although the latter is probably present in some form.

5. I do consider Nebraska somewhat likely to bolt. The move has been devastating to them in so many ways other than money which is the only glue now holding them. Figure out a way to stay close in revenue and they could leave.

6. Ohio State and Penn State are two giants of the sport who can pave their own way by forming new associations that actually put them playing games in the recruiting rich South. What Michigan, Michigan State, and Wisconsin are tempted to do is a different matter in many ways.

7. I think Iowa would watch Ohio State and Penn State and would adapt to what they do.

So I consider for a wide variety of reasons that the Big 10 is a bit more of a smoking cauldron with a variety of complex issues bubbling up in a growingly unstable brew.

I think the only reason we see cracks right now is that the COVID and political events are currently exacerbating if not accelerating the divisions which also see the GOR up in 2024 with their current contract. So the synergy of these events have brought this from a simmer to nearly a boil.

From the few Husker fans I actually talk with.. they want to return to the Big 12 just for the proximity of games factor. But to me, it's hard to turn down 50 plus mil guaranteed. Now maybe if they decide taking 43 mil or so for it's tier 1 and 2.. leaving it's tier 3 package for them to decide what to do with.. maybe they can work something out with the Big 12?

Just realized with the Big 12 being CST-centric.. They really are the glue for EST and PST game starts. Maybe the money will be much closer?

(08-24-2020 12:13 PM)Thiefery Wrote:  From the few Husker fans I actually talk with.. they want to return to the Big 12 just for the proximity of games factor. But to me, it's hard to turn down 50 plus mil guaranteed. Now maybe if they decide taking 43 mil or so for it's tier 1 and 2.. leaving it's tier 3 package for them to decide what to do with.. maybe they can work something out with the Big 12?

Just realized with the Big 12 being CST-centric.. They really are the glue for EST and PST game starts. Maybe the money will be much closer?

Happy donors can easily make up 7 million a year. There's that too. But to put this into perspective let's say the Big 12 can draw U.S.C., a private, and pick up Colorado with possibly a Utah or Arizona school or both. Then making in the 50 million range is not impossible. It's a question of the mix.

What will eventually face Ohio State and Penn State is the prospect of making more than Big 10 money, a good bit more, and gaining access to Southern recruiting by looking at a move. People think that impossible, but if some form of pay for play is adopted I think the splits that result everywhere will blow the minds of many. And even if it doesn't come to that the demographics indicate that a change in the thinking of Northern Midwest schools is inevitable. If Texas and Oklahoma won't move North, and if Notre Dame keeps saying no and gets healthier for seeing the demographic shifts earlier and making their move more into the East Coast and Deep South then the key Big 10 schools will be out of options. How many Rutgers and Marylands can you add? They aren't profitable now that the model has shifted to more of a content driven one.

Ohio State and Penn State can stay in the Big 10 and get their 55 million, but the SEC is going to blow through that to 67 to 72 million by 2024, if not sooner. At some point Ohio State and Penn State are going to be very tempted to preserve their sports heritage, make more money, and free themselves of those who are living off of the money they make.

I think the Big Ten break up calls are a bit premature. They need a change in the commissioner’s office and then all will be back to normal. Not wanting to anger Ohio St and the other major players, the presidents of the Big Ten’s weaker sisters will throw Warren under the bus.

(08-24-2020 10:37 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-24-2020 07:44 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(08-23-2020 07:43 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  If anyone has learned anything from the last few weeks it’s The Big Ten isn’t immune from internal strife. As a fan of Southern football it would be easy for me to point, laugh and say I told you so but that wouldn’t be right.

The reality is if The Big 12, ACC and SEC play this season The Big Ten could suffer lasting damage to the working relationships within the conference.

Do Nebraska, Iowa and Ohio State look to leave The Big Ten? It is certainly something unheard of just a month ago.

Agreed. I don't think the Big Ten is in any danger of breaking up, but what I do think is that they may not be all that unified when it comes to decisions for a while...

I'm not so sure that they are safe from break up.

1. I think the model o a conference being academic first and athletic second is way to constrictive on the future of their athletic programs. All AAU schools are free to have associations beyond the boundaries of athletic conferences. By holding the athletic aspect of the Big 10 fairly rigidly to the academic association they have hampered the conferences ability to adapt to a changing market place.

2. Demographics have changed, particularly in the areas of the country richest in recruits. And especially richest in recruits for football which clearly is the sports leader at Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa, Nebraska and Wisconsin. Separate the political divides in that grouping and you have a subdivision within the sports orientation division.

3. Right now the seven schools listed in #2 are carrying the 7 schools not listed there and the annual Gross Total Revenue figures, WSJ valuations, and attendance numbers, and TV ratings illustrate this clearly. The latter 7 are much more valuable on their own than the whole. Those 7 would be better off just playing each other and the TV networks would love that value. Add in regular games against Notre Dame, Clemson, Florida State, the top SEC programs and Texas and Oklahoma and the values would be stunning. What's more their AD's know this.

4. I would argue that the academic association is what has held them together this long. But I would also argue that the division between these schools over pay for play for athletes will be much deeper than anyone suspects and that Warren's controversial decision may have much more to do with that than with politics although the latter is probably present in some form.

5. I do consider Nebraska somewhat likely to bolt. The move has been devastating to them in so many ways other than money which is the only glue now holding them. Figure out a way to stay close in revenue and they could leave.

6. Ohio State and Penn State are two giants of the sport who can pave their own way by forming new associations that actually put them playing games in the recruiting rich South. What Michigan, Michigan State, and Wisconsin are tempted to do is a different matter in many ways.

7. I think Iowa would watch Ohio State and Penn State and would adapt to what they do.

So I consider for a wide variety of reasons that the Big 10 is a bit more of a smoking cauldron with a variety of complex issues bubbling up in a growingly unstable brew.

I think the only reason we see cracks right now is that the COVID and political events are currently exacerbating if not accelerating the divisions which also see the GOR up in 2024 with their current contract. So the synergy of these events have brought this from a simmer to nearly a boil.

Geography and university profile may dictate where the seven football schools might go if they have to go somewhere. Being that Wisco and Michigan would be the last holdouts of the old model, I think they'll stubbornly stick to it and go to the PAC, provided that Ohio State leaves. Penn State's traditional focus on Eastern sports would move it towards the ACC. Therefore, I could see a scenario where each take a couple of partners to form a new division in their new homes. Wisco can bring Minnesota and Michigan can bring Michigan State. Those four would basically provide the PAC with content in the EST and CST time zones needed for exposure.

Northwestern would give the ACC another avenue into the Chicago market without forcing ND into full status, which would also complement sewing up the East Coast up and down.

That leaves the SEC with the state schools of Ohio, Indiana and Illinois. While not the bonanza some are hoping for, it would still be a good pickup.

MO/KY/OSU/IL/IN/PU
TAMU/AR/LSU/MS/MSU/VU
AL/AU/TN/GA/FL/SC

BC/SU/Pitt/PSU/NU/RU
MD/VA/VT/UNC/Duke/NC State
UL/FSU/GT/WF/CU/Miami

WSU/UW/OSU/UO
Cal/Stanford/UCLA/USC
ASU/AZ/UU/CU
UMN/WIS/MSU/UM

UNL/ISU/Iowa/WVU/KU/KSU
OU/OSU/UT/TT/BU/TCU

(08-24-2020 01:13 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  

(08-24-2020 10:37 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-24-2020 07:44 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(08-23-2020 07:43 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  If anyone has learned anything from the last few weeks it’s The Big Ten isn’t immune from internal strife. As a fan of Southern football it would be easy for me to point, laugh and say I told you so but that wouldn’t be right.

The reality is if The Big 12, ACC and SEC play this season The Big Ten could suffer lasting damage to the working relationships within the conference.

Do Nebraska, Iowa and Ohio State look to leave The Big Ten? It is certainly something unheard of just a month ago.

Agreed. I don't think the Big Ten is in any danger of breaking up, but what I do think is that they may not be all that unified when it comes to decisions for a while...

I'm not so sure that they are safe from break up.

1. I think the model o a conference being academic first and athletic second is way to constrictive on the future of their athletic programs. All AAU schools are free to have associations beyond the boundaries of athletic conferences. By holding the athletic aspect of the Big 10 fairly rigidly to the academic association they have hampered the conferences ability to adapt to a changing market place.

2. Demographics have changed, particularly in the areas of the country richest in recruits. And especially richest in recruits for football which clearly is the sports leader at Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa, Nebraska and Wisconsin. Separate the political divides in that grouping and you have a subdivision within the sports orientation division.

3. Right now the seven schools listed in #2 are carrying the 7 schools not listed there and the annual Gross Total Revenue figures, WSJ valuations, and attendance numbers, and TV ratings illustrate this clearly. The latter 7 are much more valuable on their own than the whole. Those 7 would be better off just playing each other and the TV networks would love that value. Add in regular games against Notre Dame, Clemson, Florida State, the top SEC programs and Texas and Oklahoma and the values would be stunning. What's more their AD's know this.

4. I would argue that the academic association is what has held them together this long. But I would also argue that the division between these schools over pay for play for athletes will be much deeper than anyone suspects and that Warren's controversial decision may have much more to do with that than with politics although the latter is probably present in some form.

5. I do consider Nebraska somewhat likely to bolt. The move has been devastating to them in so many ways other than money which is the only glue now holding them. Figure out a way to stay close in revenue and they could leave.

6. Ohio State and Penn State are two giants of the sport who can pave their own way by forming new associations that actually put them playing games in the recruiting rich South. What Michigan, Michigan State, and Wisconsin are tempted to do is a different matter in many ways.

7. I think Iowa would watch Ohio State and Penn State and would adapt to what they do.

So I consider for a wide variety of reasons that the Big 10 is a bit more of a smoking cauldron with a variety of complex issues bubbling up in a growingly unstable brew.

I think the only reason we see cracks right now is that the COVID and political events are currently exacerbating if not accelerating the divisions which also see the GOR up in 2024 with their current contract. So the synergy of these events have brought this from a simmer to nearly a boil.

Geography and university profile may dictate where the seven football schools might go if they have to go somewhere. Being that Wisco and Michigan would be the last holdouts of the old model, I think they'll stubbornly stick to it and go to the PAC, provided that Ohio State leaves. Penn State's traditional focus on Eastern sports would move it towards the ACC. Therefore, I could see a scenario where each take a couple of partners to form a new division in their new homes. Wisco can bring Minnesota and Michigan can bring Michigan State. Those four would basically provide the PAC with content in the EST and CST time zones needed for exposure.

Northwestern would give the ACC another avenue into the Chicago market without forcing ND into full status, which would also complement sewing up the East Coast up and down.

That leaves the SEC with the state schools of Ohio, Indiana and Illinois. While not the bonanza some are hoping for, it would still be a good pickup.

MO/KY/OSU/IL/IN/PU
TAMU/AR/LSU/MS/MSU/VU
AL/AU/TN/GA/FL/SC

BC/SU/Pitt/PSU/NU/RU
MD/VA/VT/UNC/Duke/NC State
UL/FSU/GT/WF/CU/Miami

WSU/UW/OSU/UO
Cal/Stanford/UCLA/USC
ASU/AZ/UU/CU
UMN/WIS/MSU/UM

UNL/ISU/Iowa/WVU/KU/KSU
OU/OSU/UT/TT/BU/TCU

Illinois is a solid for Missouri, Indiana is a Solid for Kentucky, and Ohio State is the crown jewel. Purdue might fit better with the ACC but if that is price for Indiana and Ohio State that's okay. Purdue and Auburn have long had a relationship on aerospace engineering for NASA going back decades.

Ohio State is the most SEC like school in the Big 10.

I still think adding OSU to the SEC lineup would bring a sizeable bump for all.

I also like the placement of Minnesota, the two Michigan schools and Wisconsin in the PAC.

(08-24-2020 01:09 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I think the Big Ten break up calls are a bit premature. They need a change in the commissioner’s office and then all will be back to normal. Not wanting to anger Ohio St and the other major players, the presidents of the Big Ten’s weaker sisters will throw Warren under the bus.

Think Warren already crawled under the bus while it was moving.

(08-24-2020 01:31 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-24-2020 01:13 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  

(08-24-2020 10:37 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-24-2020 07:44 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(08-23-2020 07:43 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  If anyone has learned anything from the last few weeks it’s The Big Ten isn’t immune from internal strife. As a fan of Southern football it would be easy for me to point, laugh and say I told you so but that wouldn’t be right.

The reality is if The Big 12, ACC and SEC play this season The Big Ten could suffer lasting damage to the working relationships within the conference.

Do Nebraska, Iowa and Ohio State look to leave The Big Ten? It is certainly something unheard of just a month ago.

Agreed. I don't think the Big Ten is in any danger of breaking up, but what I do think is that they may not be all that unified when it comes to decisions for a while...

I'm not so sure that they are safe from break up.

1. I think the model o a conference being academic first and athletic second is way to constrictive on the future of their athletic programs. All AAU schools are free to have associations beyond the boundaries of athletic conferences. By holding the athletic aspect of the Big 10 fairly rigidly to the academic association they have hampered the conferences ability to adapt to a changing market place.

2. Demographics have changed, particularly in the areas of the country richest in recruits. And especially richest in recruits for football which clearly is the sports leader at Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa, Nebraska and Wisconsin. Separate the political divides in that grouping and you have a subdivision within the sports orientation division.

3. Right now the seven schools listed in #2 are carrying the 7 schools not listed there and the annual Gross Total Revenue figures, WSJ valuations, and attendance numbers, and TV ratings illustrate this clearly. The latter 7 are much more valuable on their own than the whole. Those 7 would be better off just playing each other and the TV networks would love that value. Add in regular games against Notre Dame, Clemson, Florida State, the top SEC programs and Texas and Oklahoma and the values would be stunning. What's more their AD's know this.

4. I would argue that the academic association is what has held them together this long. But I would also argue that the division between these schools over pay for play for athletes will be much deeper than anyone suspects and that Warren's controversial decision may have much more to do with that than with politics although the latter is probably present in some form.

5. I do consider Nebraska somewhat likely to bolt. The move has been devastating to them in so many ways other than money which is the only glue now holding them. Figure out a way to stay close in revenue and they could leave.

6. Ohio State and Penn State are two giants of the sport who can pave their own way by forming new associations that actually put them playing games in the recruiting rich South. What Michigan, Michigan State, and Wisconsin are tempted to do is a different matter in many ways.

7. I think Iowa would watch Ohio State and Penn State and would adapt to what they do.

So I consider for a wide variety of reasons that the Big 10 is a bit more of a smoking cauldron with a variety of complex issues bubbling up in a growingly unstable brew.

I think the only reason we see cracks right now is that the COVID and political events are currently exacerbating if not accelerating the divisions which also see the GOR up in 2024 with their current contract. So the synergy of these events have brought this from a simmer to nearly a boil.

Geography and university profile may dictate where the seven football schools might go if they have to go somewhere. Being that Wisco and Michigan would be the last holdouts of the old model, I think they'll stubbornly stick to it and go to the PAC, provided that Ohio State leaves. Penn State's traditional focus on Eastern sports would move it towards the ACC. Therefore, I could see a scenario where each take a couple of partners to form a new division in their new homes. Wisco can bring Minnesota and Michigan can bring Michigan State. Those four would basically provide the PAC with content in the EST and CST time zones needed for exposure.

Northwestern would give the ACC another avenue into the Chicago market without forcing ND into full status, which would also complement sewing up the East Coast up and down.

That leaves the SEC with the state schools of Ohio, Indiana and Illinois. While not the bonanza some are hoping for, it would still be a good pickup.

MO/KY/OSU/IL/IN/PU
TAMU/AR/LSU/MS/MSU/VU
AL/AU/TN/GA/FL/SC

BC/SU/Pitt/PSU/NU/RU
MD/VA/VT/UNC/Duke/NC State
UL/FSU/GT/WF/CU/Miami

WSU/UW/OSU/UO
Cal/Stanford/UCLA/USC
ASU/AZ/UU/CU
UMN/WIS/MSU/UM

UNL/ISU/Iowa/WVU/KU/KSU
OU/OSU/UT/TT/BU/TCU

Illinois is a solid for Missouri, Indiana is a Solid for Kentucky, and Ohio State is the crown jewel. Purdue might fit better with the ACC but if that is price for Indiana and Ohio State that's okay. Purdue and Auburn have long had a relationship on aerospace engineering for NASA going back decades.

Ohio State is the most SEC like school in the Big 10.

I still thing adding OSU to the SEC lineup would bring a sizeable bump for all.

I also like he placement of Minnesota, the two Michigan schools and Wisconsin in the PAC.

Don't think that is likely at all.

But this could trigger a merger of sorts. The willing join an SEC group.
SEC-South Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Mississippi St., LSU, Texas A&M
North Conference Arkansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Iowa, Ohio St., Penn St. + 6 others coming reluctantly after the first 4 indicate a plan to exit, maybe Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Michigan St., Indiana.

(08-24-2020 01:31 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Illinois is a solid for Missouri, Indiana is a Solid for Kentucky, and Ohio State is the crown jewel. Purdue might fit better with the ACC but if that is price for Indiana and Ohio State that's okay. Purdue and Auburn have long had a relationship on aerospace engineering for NASA going back decades.

Ohio State is the most SEC like school in the Big 10.

I still thing adding OSU to the SEC lineup would bring a sizeable bump for all.

I've spent a lot of time in various parts of Ohio for various work assignments, including Columbus. There is nothing Southern about Ohio. The hills of southeastern Ohio are more like Kentucky and West Virginia, but it's still not deep South. But, they have an SEC-like fan base. Unbelievably fanatical. It's a huge school with a huge alumni base and an even bigger fan base. The school and the state are football-driven.

If you're starting a conference, you want Ohio State in it. If you have a chance to add them, you do whatever it takes to do it.

If the B1G were to break up (doubtful, but all scenarios are discussed here), Ohio State's first call is to the SEC office in Birmingham.

Obviously money conquers all. You shove enough money in front of someone and they'll change conferences. I'll say though if I were in charge of Penn State it would take a ton of $ to get me to come to the SEC (same for Illinois although I would guess the Illini would be pretty far down on the SEC's wish list). If PSU were forced to leave the B1G, I'd feel much more comfortable in the ACC than the SEC as they fit better geographically, academically, demographically, and culturally. Illinois wouldn't fit with the ACC geographically but they are pretty close to Notre Dame and are definitely academically/demographically/culturally more ACC than SEC. Like it or not, I have two big problems with the SEC and they both start with M. You think I don't like being in the same conference with Nebraska? I'd rather be in the same conference with Nebraska (and Iowa) than be with the two Mississippi schools. Until this past June, Mississippi still had the Confederate flag on its state flag. I get they're a part of your conference but it doesn't mean we outside of the conference need to accept them and at least to me they're deal breakers. Call me an academic snob. Then again, if academic presidents are deciding conference realignment moves, they may want to be in a conference with Mississippi and Mississippi State as much as I do. The SEC schools feel a southern and historical connection with the Mississippi schools. Penn State, Illinois, Ohio State, Michigan, and the other Big Ten schools won't, they'll just see them as academic dead weight.

Academics may not mean as much in the SEC but they still matter in the Big Ten and ACC and I'll respect those two conferences more than the SEC because of it. In college football, the SEC is no doubt king but football isn't everything to everybody.

So at CSNBBS we've discussed the Big 12 breaking up/getting raided (mainly by me:) ), the Pac-12 breaking up/getting raided, the ACC breaking up/getting raided, and now the Big 10 breaking up/getting raided. When are we going to start discussing the SEC breaking up/getting raided so we can finish off all of the P5's?

This is just a basic framework of how the current P5 could be redistributed into 6 operating units. Cincinnati could be added to achieve 6 x 11 with some creative shifting.

Purdue, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisville, West Virginia, Pitt, Syracuse, Boston College, Rutgers, Maryland, Northwestern

Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Illinois, Missouri, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska

UVa, VT, Carolina, NCSU, Wake Forest, Duke, Clemson, South Carolina, FSU, Miami, Georgia Tech

Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Miss State, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, LSU, A&M

Iowa State, Coloarado, Kansas, KSU, Oklahoma, OSU, Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU

Washington, WSU, Oregon, OSU, Stanford, Cal, UCLA, USC, Arizona, ASU, Utah

(08-24-2020 01:31 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-24-2020 01:13 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  

(08-24-2020 10:37 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-24-2020 07:44 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(08-23-2020 07:43 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  If anyone has learned anything from the last few weeks it’s The Big Ten isn’t immune from internal strife. As a fan of Southern football it would be easy for me to point, laugh and say I told you so but that wouldn’t be right.

The reality is if The Big 12, ACC and SEC play this season The Big Ten could suffer lasting damage to the working relationships within the conference.

Do Nebraska, Iowa and Ohio State look to leave The Big Ten? It is certainly something unheard of just a month ago.

Agreed. I don't think the Big Ten is in any danger of breaking up, but what I do think is that they may not be all that unified when it comes to decisions for a while...

I'm not so sure that they are safe from break up.

1. I think the model o a conference being academic first and athletic second is way to constrictive on the future of their athletic programs. All AAU schools are free to have associations beyond the boundaries of athletic conferences. By holding the athletic aspect of the Big 10 fairly rigidly to the academic association they have hampered the conferences ability to adapt to a changing market place.

2. Demographics have changed, particularly in the areas of the country richest in recruits. And especially richest in recruits for football which clearly is the sports leader at Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa, Nebraska and Wisconsin. Separate the political divides in that grouping and you have a subdivision within the sports orientation division.

3. Right now the seven schools listed in #2 are carrying the 7 schools not listed there and the annual Gross Total Revenue figures, WSJ valuations, and attendance numbers, and TV ratings illustrate this clearly. The latter 7 are much more valuable on their own than the whole. Those 7 would be better off just playing each other and the TV networks would love that value. Add in regular games against Notre Dame, Clemson, Florida State, the top SEC programs and Texas and Oklahoma and the values would be stunning. What's more their AD's know this.

4. I would argue that the academic association is what has held them together this long. But I would also argue that the division between these schools over pay for play for athletes will be much deeper than anyone suspects and that Warren's controversial decision may have much more to do with that than with politics although the latter is probably present in some form.

5. I do consider Nebraska somewhat likely to bolt. The move has been devastating to them in so many ways other than money which is the only glue now holding them. Figure out a way to stay close in revenue and they could leave.

6. Ohio State and Penn State are two giants of the sport who can pave their own way by forming new associations that actually put them playing games in the recruiting rich South. What Michigan, Michigan State, and Wisconsin are tempted to do is a different matter in many ways.

7. I think Iowa would watch Ohio State and Penn State and would adapt to what they do.

So I consider for a wide variety of reasons that the Big 10 is a bit more of a smoking cauldron with a variety of complex issues bubbling up in a growingly unstable brew.

I think the only reason we see cracks right now is that the COVID and political events are currently exacerbating if not accelerating the divisions which also see the GOR up in 2024 with their current contract. So the synergy of these events have brought this from a simmer to nearly a boil.

Geography and university profile may dictate where the seven football schools might go if they have to go somewhere. Being that Wisco and Michigan would be the last holdouts of the old model, I think they'll stubbornly stick to it and go to the PAC, provided that Ohio State leaves. Penn State's traditional focus on Eastern sports would move it towards the ACC. Therefore, I could see a scenario where each take a couple of partners to form a new division in their new homes. Wisco can bring Minnesota and Michigan can bring Michigan State. Those four would basically provide the PAC with content in the EST and CST time zones needed for exposure.

Northwestern would give the ACC another avenue into the Chicago market without forcing ND into full status, which would also complement sewing up the East Coast up and down.

That leaves the SEC with the state schools of Ohio, Indiana and Illinois. While not the bonanza some are hoping for, it would still be a good pickup.

MO/KY/OSU/IL/IN/PU
TAMU/AR/LSU/MS/MSU/VU
AL/AU/TN/GA/FL/SC

BC/SU/Pitt/PSU/NU/RU
MD/VA/VT/UNC/Duke/NC State
UL/FSU/GT/WF/CU/Miami

WSU/UW/OSU/UO
Cal/Stanford/UCLA/USC
ASU/AZ/UU/CU
UMN/WIS/MSU/UM

UNL/ISU/Iowa/WVU/KU/KSU
OU/OSU/UT/TT/BU/TCU

Illinois is a solid for Missouri, Indiana is a Solid for Kentucky, and Ohio State is the crown jewel. Purdue might fit better with the ACC but if that is price for Indiana and Ohio State that's okay. Purdue and Auburn have long had a relationship on aerospace engineering for NASA going back decades.

Ohio State is the most SEC like school in the Big 10.

I still think adding OSU to the SEC lineup would bring a sizeable bump for all.

I also like the placement of Minnesota, the two Michigan schools and Wisconsin in the PAC.

Keep in mind, too, that a break-up of the Big Ten means Oklahoma and Texas now have nowhere else to go should the Big XII also fail (although the return of Nebraska along with a few other Big Ten West teams might fortify the XII for many years to come).