(08-21-2020 03:34 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  I'll be honest... that was an extremely painful time in my life... and I still suffer some effects. I don't remember dates well during that period. As far as I'm concerned, it was almost all of them. If they didn't stop it... if they didn't tell the people the truth... they have SOME blame

I made very solid money doing very clean business with people that I'd looked out for (and who looked out for me) for a very long time. The markets had gotten very aggressive with 'junk' and I was still able to make a respectable living without selling my customers 'junk'. When the markets collapsed, there was nothing for me to sell anymore, but I was okay because I knew that my customers hadn't been hurt... and that when the 'junk' repriced to its appropriate value, my customers would have the liquidity to purchase them at the appropriate prices and I would 'get well'.

In comes the government and they change all sorts of rules... NOT to help depositors, which they could have done by simply guaranteeing deposits through the FDIC and electronic transfers of funds like is supposed to happen, but instead by propping up the companies and THEIR investors. This whole 'we're keeping people from being foreclosed' was a scam. No they weren't. The problem for the markets was that Countrywide (and everyone else) would loan out $1byn at 7%... and then borrow 980mm of that from investors at 3%. That's a HUGE return (Do the math on the leverage). Investors decided that they wanted more than 2% equity for some of those securities... and that SOME of them (very small portions) were actually close to worthless.

The government didn't need to cover $1byn in loans. 900+mm of those were fully secured by borrowers easily capable of making their payments... and while the other <100mm may not have been worth <100mm, those homes and properties were worth 'something'. The RISK was a relatively small portion of <100mm, like perhaps 30-40mm on that $1byn in securities. Using the 1929 depression figures, the number would have been around 60mm.

They made FORTUNES for wealthy investors who caused the problem and shady brokers who sold them the crap.

It was painful for me as well. My main gig had a combination of equity rounds and a series of debt financiers lined up for growth (equity) and for end sales finances (debt lined up to be end finance for projects using us). The debt end disappeared in no part due to the bktcy issues we just mentioned, so our sales slid off a cliff.

We ended up with a 550 million US government guarantee to build the big fab plant. But bc of the Obama interventions the guarantees ended up being toxic to lenders instead of increasing their comfort.

The only bank that would lend was the Import Bank, run by the govt. Then to cap it off the DOE literally less than two days before closing made a demand that our floor be union and that all construction of the fab would be union.

No chip foundry or semi foundry or tech company is a union shop in Silicon Valley. We told them the construction was good (at 19% over non union expected costs) but told them to pound sand on the union floor.

The Obama administration was a bunch of Tamany Hall thugs.

On side gigs at the time, I lost count of how much credit was pulled from lines of clients, and how many hedgies who were offering secured position loans to clients simply ghosted them.... one less than 24 hours from closing for a 200 million stake.

Obama wrecked doing that bigger ticket private secured position business for three solid years with his UAW handouts.

Quote:Called the Expedited to Street/Afternoon Sortation (ESAS) program, the initiative, launched by the post office on July 25, focuses on more than 1,200 zip codes zones around the country. A description of the new plan, outlined in the trade publication Postal Times, caught McKean’s eye because of the way it would shake up long-standing procedures. According to McKean, these include how mail carriers have typically started their day by prioritizing the delivery of important pieces—first-class letters, payments, packages, bills, and, yes, vote-by-mail applications and mail-in ballots—before they head out on their routes. Then, after they return from their rounds, they process less-critical mail, which is typically delivered the next day. Under the ESAS plan, however, certain post offices have begun testing the practice of leaving all sorting until the afternoon—a change that postal officials said was intended to get mail carriers out on the street faster.

The real impact, according to McKean, could be delays in mail delivery in some areas of one to several days—a critical lag during a presidential contest in which ballots in many states must be received by election day.

Quote:Postmaster General DeJoy’s efforts to eliminate overtime pay for postal workers—which he has now vowed to rescind—have already added to the potential delays that, in McKean’s view, may be further exacerbated by the ESAS program. “Overtime is how we are able to be sure all of the mail is sorted,” she said. “Postal workers are now leaving behind mail, and over the days, it piles up. If allowed to continue, it could overwhelm big cities, so they’ll never dig out, while it’s easier for smaller places to keep up.”

Quote:“I saw that many of the larger postal regions listed were in cities with large populations that tend to vote Democratic,” said McKean, citing cities like Detroit, Los Angeles, and Philadelphia. “This prompted me to start looking up election data on the people living in these zip code areas,” she said, tapping into readily available information on voting patterns provided by the website BestPlaces, which uses Federal Election Commission data on the political make-up of different areas in the country. McKean examined cities and counties targeted by ESAS and also surveyed information on race, population, gender, education, and income.

The total population of the sites being tested that tend to vote Democratic was 17,368,620, McKean concluded in a memo that summarized her findings. “The same information for test-site counties that lean Republican was less than half that number: 8,056,265.” Some of the Democratically inclined zip codes in the test group, including those in Philadelphia, Milwaukee, and Detroit, are located in battleground states that President Donald Trump narrowly won in 2016.

When discussing McKean’s analysis of the regional breakdown of the ESAS test sites, Philip Rubio, an expert on the history of the U.S. Postal Service, said he shared her worries. “It looks like they’re targeting blue urban areas,” said Rubio, a professor of history at North Carolina Agricultural and Technical State University and a former mail carrier himself. “If this is true, we have never seen this level of partisan weaponizing of the post office.”

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/08/...ion-alarms

Listened tonight to Anderson Cooper moaning about how the pullout of the sorters was delaying checks to farmers.

Must be those NYC or DC farmers. All the ones around here use direct deposit.

(08-20-2020 07:27 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Some states already seem to be well positioned to handle this - Colorado saw 99.3% of all Dem primary votes be cast with mail or drop-off ballots, and they were able to report the results by the polls' closing times.

Case in point: Colorado passed their vote by mail law in 2013, so they have had 7 years to refine the process and get the citizenry used to such a thing. Hawaii and Oregon are similar in this regard. Several states are no where close to this standard.

I can't imagine Harris County counting paper ballots. Maybe I am wrong, but seems like it would be a huge cluster.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch...-in-voting

Saw these charts on twitter today, which are sourced directly from USPS. Percent of on time service for first class mail in the east and Pacific regions dropped by ~15% from the same time last year, starting in July. This backs up the claims that post deliveries across the country have slowed down.

I mentioned this in another post, the timing of the changes the current Post Master General is making is just horrible, given the current situation with COVID and the rapidly approaching election. I don’t know why they didn’t at least try the efficiency measures in a select market/area to evaluate the impacts the changes would have on delivery, or just delay it until after the election (since the writing was on the wall for increased use of mail in ballots).

https://www.savethepostoffice.com/need-p...re-you-go/

Privatize the Postal Service. New Zealand did it, with a population that is more rural than ours, and accompanied it with a postal bank. At the other extreme, Germany did it with a population that is 20 times New Zealand's. It worked both places.

(08-22-2020 11:48 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Privatize the Postal Service. New Zealand did it, with a population that is more rural than ours, and accompanied it with a postal bank. At the other extreme, Germany did it with a population that is 20 times New Zealand's. It worked both places.

We already talked about the fact that New Zealand did not completely privatize the postal service.

(08-22-2020 12:38 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(08-22-2020 11:48 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Privatize the Postal Service. New Zealand did it, with a population that is more rural than ours, and accompanied it with a postal bank. At the other extreme, Germany did it with a population that is 20 times New Zealand's. It worked both places.

We already talked about the fact that New Zealand did not completely privatize the postal service.

How so?

(08-22-2020 02:47 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(08-22-2020 12:38 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(08-22-2020 11:48 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Privatize the Postal Service. New Zealand did it, with a population that is more rural than ours, and accompanied it with a postal bank. At the other extreme, Germany did it with a population that is 20 times New Zealand's. It worked both places.

We already talked about the fact that New Zealand did not completely privatize the postal service.

How so?

“
But doing a bit of cursory reading, the NZ post is legally obliged to have a certain number of locations open, and it is still given a monopoly on low cost mail. So that’s how they handled the issue I’m discussing, and did it in sort of a joint venture way - government basically mandates that they need to maintain a basic level of service for plain mail, and they can do what they want for the rest.”

(08-22-2020 03:23 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(08-22-2020 02:47 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(08-22-2020 12:38 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(08-22-2020 11:48 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Privatize the Postal Service. New Zealand did it, with a population that is more rural than ours, and accompanied it with a postal bank. At the other extreme, Germany did it with a population that is 20 times New Zealand's. It worked both places.

We already talked about the fact that New Zealand did not completely privatize the postal service.

How so?

“But doing a bit of cursory reading, the NZ post is legally obliged to have a certain number of locations open, and it is still given a monopoly on low cost mail. So that’s how they handled the issue I’m discussing, and did it in sort of a joint venture way - government basically mandates that they need to maintain a basic level of service for plain mail, and they can do what they want for the rest.”

Not quite sure how that qualifies as either 1) not completely privatizing, or 2) a joint venture. It's privatized with certain government regulations. If that's not privatizing, then we have virtually no private businesses in the US.

(08-22-2020 04:10 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(08-22-2020 03:23 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(08-22-2020 02:47 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(08-22-2020 12:38 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(08-22-2020 11:48 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Privatize the Postal Service. New Zealand did it, with a population that is more rural than ours, and accompanied it with a postal bank. At the other extreme, Germany did it with a population that is 20 times New Zealand's. It worked both places.

We already talked about the fact that New Zealand did not completely privatize the postal service.

How so?

“But doing a bit of cursory reading, the NZ post is legally obliged to have a certain number of locations open, and it is still given a monopoly on low cost mail. So that’s how they handled the issue I’m discussing, and did it in sort of a joint venture way - government basically mandates that they need to maintain a basic level of service for plain mail, and they can do what they want for the rest.”

Not quite sure how that qualifies as either 1) not completely privatizing, or 2) a joint venture. It's privatized with certain government regulations. If that's not privatizing, then we have virtually no private businesses in the US.

It’s still state owned. From Wikipedia.

Quote: The two acts broke up the New Zealand Post Office into three corporations: the postal service firm New Zealand Post Limited, the savings bank Post Office Bank Limited, later rebranded as PostBank, and the telecommunications company Telecom New Zealand Limited. Today, only New Zealand Post remains a state-owned enterprise, as PostBank and Telecom were privatised in 1989 and 1990, respectively.[5]

(08-22-2020 06:37 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  It’s still state owned. From Wikipedia.

Quote:The two acts broke up the New Zealand Post Office into three corporations: the postal service firm New Zealand Post Limited, the savings bank Post Office Bank Limited, later rebranded as PostBank, and the telecommunications company Telecom New Zealand Limited. Today, only New Zealand Post remains a state-owned enterprise, as PostBank and Telecom were privatised in 1989 and 1990, respectively.[5]

But operated as a private business, like PetroBras, for example.

That's actually a model I have proposed for a privatized portion of Social Security. Create privatized accounts that would purchase all the user-funded (or potentially user-funded) enterprises from and use them as the first tier, a very conservative index fund as a second tier, and self-directed above that.

(08-22-2020 11:43 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Saw these charts on twitter today, which are sourced directly from USPS. Percent of on time service for first class mail in the east and Pacific regions dropped by ~15% from the same time last year, starting in July. This backs up the claims that post deliveries across the country have slowed down.

I mentioned this in another post, the timing of the changes the current Post Master General is making is just horrible, given the current situation with COVID and the rapidly approaching election. I don’t know why they didn’t at least try the efficiency measures in a select market/area to evaluate the impacts the changes would have on delivery, or just delay it until after the election (since the writing was on the wall for increased use of mail in ballots).

https://www.savethepostoffice.com/need-p...re-you-go/

First, please provide the USPS links so we can fact check them. No offense, but 'Twitter' isn't reliable. When you do a google search for their on-time rates, you get 2019 figures, which makes more sense.

Interestingly, you also get this.

https://about.usps.com/newsroom/national...esults.htm

(in the last quarter) First-Class Mail revenue decreased by $373 million, or 6.4 percent, on a volume decline of 1.1 billion pieces, or 8.4 percent. Secular declines in mail have continued to negatively affect mail revenue and volume, and those declines have been significantly exacerbated by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

https://about.usps.com/news/delivers-fac...-facts.pdf
However, the Postal Service has suffered 13 consecutive years of net losses, and since 2012 has been forced to default on $47.2 billion in mandated payments to the Treasury Department for retiree health benefits and $8.2 billion in mandated amortization payments for unfunded retirement liabilities.

Since fiscal year 2007, total mail volume has declined by 33 percent. First-Class Mail, our most profitable product, has declined by 42 percent during the same timeframe, and is expected to continue to decline as more transactions and other communications move online.

And finally... and I'd really hope that people would read this before challenging the above:

https://about.usps.com/newsroom/statemen...e-usps.htm

3. Sorting machines for flats and letters are only used 1/3 of the available time.

The Postal Service has always evaluated use of its equipment. Resources match volume requirements. Letter sorting and flat machines are only being used for about one-third, 32 and 38 percent, respectively, of their available machine hours. There is ample machine capacity to handle spikes in mail volume.

While he did not initiate the evaluation or removal of this equipment, Postmaster General DeJoy has given the directive to stop the removal of additional mail processing machines through the election.

So... Shall we go to the USPS website and see the 'official' statements that I have linked above for people to look at themselves, or are we going to use Twitter? If someone wants to argue that these are lies, that's fine... but does it really make sense that this guy would flat out deny something that would EASILY be absolutely proven false (if it were?)

He did not initiate the evaluation or removal... JUST as I suspected based on the reading of the previous articles...
AND
There seems to be an incredible amount of excess capacity to handle any issues.

So even IF mail is slowing (which I still need to see... but let's assume it IS happening)
a) it COULD be because the union is pissed off that they're going to have to start working harder to make this company somehow profitable... so they're engaging in work slowdowns... wouldn't be the first time a union had done this. They need to start making money, and that most often means losing jobs. Unions don't like that.
b) in my quick search, it seems that deliveries were (iirc) 13% faster in 2019 than 2018. Maybe 2020 is just returning to trend? Or maybe this is a relatively volatile number?
c) wouldn't it make sense if you were running the USPS and losing money for now going on your second decade... that getting a letter across the country for 50 cents might either need to be slowed, or more charged? Nobody else offers a 50 cent across the country letter. You can argue the timing as a conspiracy theory, but it's still likely a correct business model change. The letter will get there eventually for 50 cents. If you want it there faster, use 'priority mail'. It's still WAY cheaper than UPS or FEDEX
d) and finally, just because regular mail is slowing doesn't mean that they couldn't prioritize ballots (which are all the same size and have the same postal scan) and ramp up staffing etc

Said simply.... If 200, much less 200,000 Ballots show up at a state election board the day after the election, as long as they are postmarked before the state's deadline, they should be counted and I can't imagine that anyone or any court would not agree. This whole idea that someone could simply slow down the process and nobody would notice or complain is absolutely and positively, a ridiculous conspiracy theory.

(08-22-2020 11:43 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Saw these charts on twitter today, which are sourced directly from USPS. Percent of on time service for first class mail in the east and Pacific regions dropped by ~15% from the same time last year, starting in July. This backs up the claims that post deliveries across the country have slowed down.

I mentioned this in another post, the timing of the changes the current Post Master General is making is just horrible, given the current situation with COVID and the rapidly approaching election. I don’t know why they didn’t at least try the efficiency measures in a select market/area to evaluate the impacts the changes would have on delivery, or just delay it until after the election (since the writing was on the wall for increased use of mail in ballots).

https://www.savethepostoffice.com/need-p...re-you-go/

Same sets of data, from Congress:

Quote:Washington, D.C. (Aug. 22, 2020)—Today, Rep. Carolyn B. Maloney, the Chairwoman of the Committee on Oversight and Reform, released new internal Postal Service documents warning Postmaster General Louis DeJoy about steep declines and increasing delays nationwide over the last two months as a result of his drastic operational and organizational changes.

https://oversight.house.gov/news/press-r...han-postal

(08-22-2020 08:48 PM)At Ease Wrote:  Same sets of data, from Congress:

Quote:Washington, D.C. (Aug. 22, 2020)—Today, Rep. Carolyn B. Maloney, the Chairwoman of the Committee on Oversight and Reform, released new internal Postal Service documents warning Postmaster General Louis DeJoy about steep declines and increasing delays nationwide over the last two months as a result of his drastic operational and organizational changes.

https://oversight.house.gov/news/press-r...han-postal

Note the top right...
PRESORT FIRST CLASS MAIL

That means that the sender presorted the mail, which would be someone sending thousands of letters. It has nothing to do with the speed of return mail.... and the '1 extra day' dip is less than 1/2 of 1%,

It's August.

Looks like marketing mail is very slowed.... and periodicals also seem to have been slowing since March.

And then of course, Priority mail... which has nothing at all to do with the issue at hand.

While presort is vaguely related even if months in advance (I suspect many/most states would use presort to send out ballots) I'm wondering what Priority mail, periodicals, and marketing mail speeds have to do in any way with voting?

Or are they just bitching that a letter should take more than 2 days to get across the country or cost more than 50 cents?

No wonder they're losing billions. They're still the fastest way to get a letter somewhere for 50 cents and congress ******* at them for taking one extra day

I'm wondering why they don't show what the 1st class non-marketing, non-periodical rate is? If you're concerned about voting, that seems obvious. I find that telling

(08-22-2020 08:31 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  

(08-22-2020 11:43 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Saw these charts on twitter today, which are sourced directly from USPS. Percent of on time service for first class mail in the east and Pacific regions dropped by ~15% from the same time last year, starting in July. This backs up the claims that post deliveries across the country have slowed down.

I mentioned this in another post, the timing of the changes the current Post Master General is making is just horrible, given the current situation with COVID and the rapidly approaching election. I don’t know why they didn’t at least try the efficiency measures in a select market/area to evaluate the impacts the changes would have on delivery, or just delay it until after the election (since the writing was on the wall for increased use of mail in ballots).

https://www.savethepostoffice.com/need-p...re-you-go/

First, please provide the USPS links so we can fact check them. No offense, but 'Twitter' isn't reliable. When you do a google search for their on-time rates, you get 2019 figures, which makes more sense.

Interestingly, you also get this.

https://about.usps.com/newsroom/national...esults.htm

(in the last quarter) First-Class Mail revenue decreased by $373 million, or 6.4 percent, on a volume decline of 1.1 billion pieces, or 8.4 percent. Secular declines in mail have continued to negatively affect mail revenue and volume, and those declines have been significantly exacerbated by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

https://about.usps.com/news/delivers-fac...-facts.pdf
However, the Postal Service has suffered 13 consecutive years of net losses, and since 2012 has been forced to default on $47.2 billion in mandated payments to the Treasury Department for retiree health benefits and $8.2 billion in mandated amortization payments for unfunded retirement liabilities.

Since fiscal year 2007, total mail volume has declined by 33 percent. First-Class Mail, our most profitable product, has declined by 42 percent during the same timeframe, and is expected to continue to decline as more transactions and other communications move online.

And finally... and I'd really hope that people would read this before challenging the above:

https://about.usps.com/newsroom/statemen...e-usps.htm

3. Sorting machines for flats and letters are only used 1/3 of the available time.

The Postal Service has always evaluated use of its equipment. Resources match volume requirements. Letter sorting and flat machines are only being used for about one-third, 32 and 38 percent, respectively, of their available machine hours. There is ample machine capacity to handle spikes in mail volume.

While he did not initiate the evaluation or removal of this equipment, Postmaster General DeJoy has given the directive to stop the removal of additional mail processing machines through the election.

So... Shall we go to the USPS website and see the 'official' statements that I have linked above for people to look at themselves, or are we going to use Twitter? If someone wants to argue that these are lies, that's fine... but does it really make sense that this guy would flat out deny something that would EASILY be absolutely proven false (if it were?)

He did not initiate the evaluation or removal... JUST as I suspected based on the reading of the previous articles...
AND
There seems to be an incredible amount of excess capacity to handle any issues.

So even IF mail is slowing (which I still need to see... but let's assume it IS happening)
a) it COULD be because the union is pissed off that they're going to have to start working harder to make this company somehow profitable... so they're engaging in work slowdowns... wouldn't be the first time a union had done this. They need to start making money, and that most often means losing jobs. Unions don't like that.
b) in my quick search, it seems that deliveries were (iirc) 13% faster in 2019 than 2018. Maybe 2020 is just returning to trend? Or maybe this is a relatively volatile number?
c) wouldn't it make sense if you were running the USPS and losing money for now going on your second decade... that getting a letter across the country for 50 cents might either need to be slowed, or more charged? Nobody else offers a 50 cent across the country letter. You can argue the timing as a conspiracy theory, but it's still likely a correct business model change. The letter will get there eventually for 50 cents. If you want it there faster, use 'priority mail'. It's still WAY cheaper than UPS or FEDEX
d) and finally, just because regular mail is slowing doesn't mean that they couldn't prioritize ballots (which are all the same size and have the same postal scan) and ramp up staffing etc

Said simply.... If 200, much less 200,000 Ballots show up at a state election board the day after the election, as long as they are postmarked before the state's deadline, they should be counted and I can't imagine that anyone or any court would not agree. This whole idea that someone could simply slow down the process and nobody would notice or complain is absolutely and positively, a ridiculous conspiracy theory.

Ham, I’ve noticed you have a bit of a Bad habit of responding to links without going to them or watching the video. It happened recently with the ad for the women running in Baltimore, and here.

If you clicked the link, you would have found that the graphs discussed came directly from the USPS. I didn’t post the USPS presentations directly because the graphs came well into it, and the link I provided covered the issue at hand.

All the info you’re interested in can be found here (https://postalpro.usps.com/node/8472) for the Pacific region. That includes change (and decrease) in first class, marketing, and periodicals. All of which say a drop in percent on time around the end of June (marketing being the most noticeable).

The data I linked to is different that what At Ease did.

I think this squarely puts the nail in the coffin of the idea that mail delivery hasn’t slowed across the board. Turns out all of the reporting we’re seeing from across the country, from multiple sources, isn’t all fake news...

I have been hearing that mail delivery is getting worse since first class mail was $.03.

Old joke from back in the day:

"Used to be a letter cost 2 cents, and took two days. Now it costs 5 cents - still a penny a day."

I think if you your team s trying to say the USPS is doing worse just because Trump is president, they are about 20 presidents too late.

I did not realize how many prescription the USPS handled.

Quote: The Postal Service manages 1.2 billion prescription drug shipments a year — or about 4 million each day, six days a week — the National Association of Letter Carriers reported earlier this year.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-el...k-n1237756

(08-23-2020 12:40 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  I did not realize how many prescription the USPS handled.

Quote: The Postal Service manages 1.2 billion prescription drug shipments a year — or about 4 million each day, six days a week — the National Association of Letter Carriers reported earlier this year.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-el...k-n1237756

I used to get one of my prescriptions -the one for cholesterol - by mail - from India. Always ordered a month ahead, always got it before I ran out. India must have an amazing postal system.

Yes, Lad, I read the link. I think it is an alarmist piece of crap. From NBCnews, so about as expected.

Missing a day or two of cholesterol meds is about as dangerous as walking over to the TV instead of using the remote.

Missing pain meds, like my sister had to for 12 days due to Covid restrictions from her residential facility, can be be uncomfortable, and about as life endangering as taking out the trash. (Due to Federal government regulations, she had to be seen in person, and due to residence regulations, if she left the facility she would have to quarantine in her apartment for 14 day. Yay, dueling regulations!)

It is MY responsibility - the patient's responsibility - to order my refills so that I get them in a timely manner, whether they are filled by mail from India or delivered to the door or picked up at the corner pharmacy.

A day or two or three difference in when you get them should make no difference. I know of no medication that is offered on a "barely-in-time basis." Generally I can order refills 8-10 days ahead locally, and 60 days ahead from out of the country.

Maybe if somebody is ordering their Viagra in a plain brown wrapper over the internet, and it doesn't arrive in time for one's Saturday night date, that is a disaster. Boo hoo hoo - should have ordered sooner.

But this is just another case of Democrats crying "Wolf". No substance to it at all.

(08-22-2020 10:44 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Ham, I’ve noticed you have a bit of a Bad habit of responding to links without going to them or watching the video. It happened recently with the ad for the women running in Baltimore, and here.

And you have a bit of a bad habit of ignoring the important things and focusing on the meaningless.

Regarding Baltimore, as I've told you repeatedly... I can't get twitter or a few other sources on my computer. In order to work remotely, I've had to install some 'blockers'.

I asked for the source information.... and the reason I asked for the source information was that I wanted to see what ELSE they showed. People telling stories usually show the parts they want you to see, and not the other parts... and this is no different. The data presented by AE... 3 of the 4 charts (going from memory, it may be 4 of 5) have nothing to do with the sort of mail we're talking about... and even the one that does, only deals with a portion of that mail.

MORE IMPORTANTLY, you have not remotely demonstrated causation.... and certainly not 'an impact on the election'.

Seriously Lad, if Trump and Republicans are so bad... why do I have to accept such insanely weak evidence in order to prove it?

Quote:All the info you’re interested in can be found here (https://postalpro.usps.com/node/8472) for the Pacific region. That includes change (and decrease) in first class, marketing, and periodicals. All of which say a drop in percent on time around the end of June (marketing being the most noticeable).

Looks like a precipitous drop beginning July 4th.... similar to one back in 11/30 for letters, but not periodicals or marketing. I find that telling and you ignore it.

Quote:I think this squarely puts the nail in the coffin of the idea that mail delivery hasn’t slowed across the board. Turns out all of the reporting we’re seeing from across the country, from multiple sources, isn’t all fake news...

Lad... Please pay attention.... You're a smart guy, so I'm investing my time to try and have this conversation. If you're not going to pay attention, I'm not going to continue to waste my time.

NOBODY said it hasn't slowed. I certainly never did. I simply asked for factual information rather than anecdotes. And here is why:

They had exactly the same drop in 1st class letters/flats composite before December, and the other two categories show no impact at the same time. Why do you think that happened?
It certainly wasn't because of a loss of sorters.

If the post office is asked to send out 100mm ballots, then depending on how they do it, delivery will be somewhat slower. We have 3 months to get ballots to people, so who cares? They take 4 days rather than 3 to get to people who now have 79 days rather than 80 (or whatever it is) to send them in.

Could it also be the 'Political and Election Mail Growth' between 2016 and 2020....567m to 842m?? I sure hope we haven't sent out 300mm ballots.

You've shown a very small slowdown in one area... there may be others, but we agree that here had been a modest slowdown in the west. By modest I'm talking about the time delay, which is in WE's charts, but not yours. It's a day. What you haven't demonstrated is that this slowdown has anything to do with a reduction in sorting machines, is politically motivated, or could potentially impact the election. THOSE are the things that matter, not this.

Kindly respond to the key portions of the 'about us' links on the USPS site that I mentioned.
1) sorters are currently operating at about 1/3 of their capacity, meaning there is ample machine hours to manage a volume bump... yet despite this, we still have delays when volumes spike. Maybe its something other than the sorting machines?

2) that this guy didn't initiate the review nor the removal... so whatever was decided, at least MOSTLY predates him.

3) that even with the slowdown, there is no evidence that people will not be able to cast their votes/have them counted.

So your complaint seems to be that this guy... who started only on 6/15.... and runs USPS, not the vote I might add... didn't step in in his first 18 days and stop what his predecessor put in motion until August... and that states and voters are too stupid to figure out how to manage a potential slowdown in deliveries (which based on Christmas, can happen with or without a reduction in sorters... though also based on Christmas, doesn't have to impact all areas of delivery)...

If 100mm people are going to vote by mail, the probability of delays in mail delivery as a result of that bump is 100%. Whether it's a delay of 30mm votes or 60mm votes (because of the loss of a few machines) makes no difference. If its a delay of 1mm votes, it still needs to be addressed.... but that doesn't mean that you need to address it by being able to deliver 100mm additional pieces of mail 'every day'. You address it by setting up something 'different'.

Here are the possible solutions
1) people: mail your ballot back early.
2) states: add additional delivery or collection resources and not depend 100% on an entity not designed to manage it.
3) feds: I don't support this, but I wouldn't make too big a deal about it... send money to the states to help with the above... This wouldn't be a lot of money.
4) political parties/candidates: tell your voters to get their votes back early and not wait.
5) USPS: prioritize ballots risking delays to other letters instead.

Your solution is apparently to make sure USPS has the ability to process 100mm ballots in a single day... which includes not only sorters, but additional trucks to carry them and additional mail carriers to carry them. I'm sure there are other things I'm missing.

Here's the meaningless thing to do...
Complain about a 13% reduction in capacity that is already 65% over the regular need... and claim that it is politically motivated without actually providing any real evidence of it other than 'the other guys suck'.