(07-28-2020 09:05 AM)Monarchblue Wrote: Here is another interesting thing to think about. We have talked about the social cost of lockdowns and high unemployment a fair amount here, but until now we had no numbers to attach to it. A recent survey of violent crime data shows that the increase in murders this year will account for more deaths in people below 30 than COVID if the trends of both causes of death continue on their current trend, but people who are concerned about those incidental costs are called heartless.
Wait, are you claiming that COVID has caused more murders in people under 30?
You don't think that a bunch of young people that are jobless and have been pent up for months while living in a state of constant anxiety perpetuated by the media could lead to unrest and ultimately this huge uptick in murders that we are seeing?
Some of you have been telling me for 140 pages that young people are going to do what they want to do no matter what the governor says. Is that true or not?
FWIW, the umemployment rate is 11%. Anectdotal evidence, but I don't know of anyone that is still out of work.
(This post was last modified: 07-28-2020 10:29 AM by Gilesfan.)
(07-28-2020 09:05 AM)Monarchblue Wrote: Here is another interesting thing to think about. We have talked about the social cost of lockdowns and high unemployment a fair amount here, but until now we had no numbers to attach to it. A recent survey of violent crime data shows that the increase in murders this year will account for more deaths in people below 30 than COVID if the trends of both causes of death continue on their current trend, but people who are concerned about those incidental costs are called heartless.
Wait, are you claiming that COVID has caused more murders in people under 30?
You don't think that a bunch of young people that are jobless and have been pent up for months while living in a state of constant anxiety perpetuated by the media could lead to unrest and ultimately this huge uptick in murders that we are seeing?
It’s certainly possible but I don’t think we should make that jump without more proof.
Did a little digging to see who these people are and also went to reddit because I knew there would be some websleuths on there.
I would like the Dr. Immanuel to prove that she has treated 350 patients. She listed 3 facilities on here proflie but 1) she was never affiliated, 2) she worked at the facility at some point but no one confirmed when, and 3) she never worked at.
The Americas Frontline Doctor was formed on July 16th as a right wing advocacy group.
Why in the heck did they do a press conference in front of 6 people?
The interesting debate into hydroxycholoroquine is that these doctors have small samples of cases where they believe the drug worked. If 99% of people survive COVID, did they survive because of the drug or did they survive because thats what the majority of people do?
This is why clinical trials are way more important. They don't confuse causation with correlation. It discerning that smart people believe this bull**** conspiracy theory.
Those doctors seemed to me like a bunch of quacks. The first one, when she spoke, I literally thought it was Miss South Carolina from the pageant a few years back talking about maps.
(07-28-2020 09:05 AM)Monarchblue Wrote: Here is another interesting thing to think about. We have talked about the social cost of lockdowns and high unemployment a fair amount here, but until now we had no numbers to attach to it. A recent survey of violent crime data shows that the increase in murders this year will account for more deaths in people below 30 than COVID if the trends of both causes of death continue on their current trend, but people who are concerned about those incidental costs are called heartless.
Wait, are you claiming that COVID has caused more murders in people under 30?
You don't think that a bunch of young people that are jobless and have been pent up for months while living in a state of constant anxiety perpetuated by the media could lead to unrest and ultimately this huge uptick in murders that we are seeing?
Some of you have been telling me for 140 pages that young people are going to do what they want to do no matter what the governor says. Is that true or not?
FWIW, the umemployment rate is 11%. Anectdotal evidence, but I don't know of anyone that is still out of work.
(07-28-2020 09:05 AM)Monarchblue Wrote: Here is another interesting thing to think about. We have talked about the social cost of lockdowns and high unemployment a fair amount here, but until now we had no numbers to attach to it. A recent survey of violent crime data shows that the increase in murders this year will account for more deaths in people below 30 than COVID if the trends of both causes of death continue on their current trend, but people who are concerned about those incidental costs are called heartless.
Wait, are you claiming that COVID has caused more murders in people under 30?
You don't think that a bunch of young people that are jobless and have been pent up for months while living in a state of constant anxiety perpetuated by the media could lead to unrest and ultimately this huge uptick in murders that we are seeing?
It’s certainly possible but I don’t think we should make that jump without more proof.
And, yet, the shutdown crowd justified its unwarranted attack on our economy, on our schoolchildren and on our way of life based on the most hysterical (and ultimately least accurate) of the models. Millions were sure to die if we if we failed to comply - - and it was just for a short two weeks. But then we had to keep extending and extending the lockdown requirements based upon ever-moving goalposts for what otherwise would surely be many deaths - - okay, not millions, but hundreds of thousands. And now we have to stop reopening and go back into lockdown. Why? Because there are some places in Florida that don't appear to be doing very well. It will surely spread if we don't go back into lockdown mode.
Speculation is all the rage, at least when offered in support of lockdowns. But shame on you, Monarchblue, for speculating about the secondary consequences of what we've done without first having firm data in hand.
Narrative churning is apparently only a one-way street.
(This post was last modified: 07-28-2020 11:59 AM by AdoptedMonarch.)
(07-28-2020 09:05 AM)Monarchblue Wrote: Here is another interesting thing to think about. We have talked about the social cost of lockdowns and high unemployment a fair amount here, but until now we had no numbers to attach to it. A recent survey of violent crime data shows that the increase in murders this year will account for more deaths in people below 30 than COVID if the trends of both causes of death continue on their current trend, but people who are concerned about those incidental costs are called heartless.
Wait, are you claiming that COVID has caused more murders in people under 30?
You don't think that a bunch of young people that are jobless and have been pent up for months while living in a state of constant anxiety perpetuated by the media could lead to unrest and ultimately this huge uptick in murders that we are seeing?
It’s certainly possible but I don’t think we should make that jump without more proof.
And, yet, the shutdown crowd justified its unwarranted attack on our economy, on our schoolchildren and on our way of life based on the most hysterical (and ultimately least accurate) of the models. Millions were sure to die if we if we failed to comply - - and it was just for a short two weeks. But then we had to keep extending and extending the lockdown requirements based upon ever-moving goalposts for what otherwise would surely be many deaths - - okay, not millions, but hundreds of thousands. And now we have to stop reopening and go back into lockdown. Why? Because there are some places in Florida that don't appear to be doing very well. It will surely spread if we don't go back into lockdown mode.
Speculation is all the rage, at least when offered in support of lockdowns. But shame on you, Monarchblue, for speculating about the secondary consequences of what we've done without first having firm data in hand.
Narrative churning is apparently only a one-way street.
You can't blame the economy on lockdowns anymore my friend. We were well on our way to a nice V shaped recovery. Failure to contain the Trump-Flu is our ailment now. I've heard it will just disappear any day now though.
Did a little digging to see who these people are and also went to reddit because I knew there would be some websleuths on there.
I would like the Dr. Immanuel to prove that she has treated 350 patients. She listed 3 facilities on here proflie but 1) she was never affiliated, 2) she worked at the facility at some point but no one confirmed when, and 3) she never worked at.
The Americas Frontline Doctor was formed on July 16th as a right wing advocacy group.
Why in the heck did they do a press conference in front of 6 people?
The interesting debate into hydroxycholoroquine is that these doctors have small samples of cases where they believe the drug worked. If 99% of people survive COVID, did they survive because of the drug or did they survive because thats what the majority of people do?
This is why clinical trials are way more important. They don't confuse causation with correlation. It discerning that smart people believe this bull**** conspiracy theory.
Those doctors seemed to me like a bunch of quacks. The first one, when she spoke, I literally thought it was Miss South Carolina from the pageant a few years back talking about maps.
I obviously have no idea who that is but he seems to have creditials. I would be interested to read if he's performed any clinical trials. If people are going to buy into this conspiracy, that article does a way better job than a press conference with a witchcraft doctor.
(07-28-2020 09:05 AM)Monarchblue Wrote: Here is another interesting thing to think about. We have talked about the social cost of lockdowns and high unemployment a fair amount here, but until now we had no numbers to attach to it. A recent survey of violent crime data shows that the increase in murders this year will account for more deaths in people below 30 than COVID if the trends of both causes of death continue on their current trend, but people who are concerned about those incidental costs are called heartless.
Wait, are you claiming that COVID has caused more murders in people under 30?
You don't think that a bunch of young people that are jobless and have been pent up for months while living in a state of constant anxiety perpetuated by the media could lead to unrest and ultimately this huge uptick in murders that we are seeing?
Some of you have been telling me for 140 pages that young people are going to do what they want to do no matter what the governor says. Is that true or not?
FWIW, the umemployment rate is 11%. Anectdotal evidence, but I don't know of anyone that is still out of work.
What if what they want to do is go to work?
So because they want to go to work and cant, they go and murder people? Just by coincidence, if that is right, who's to say they wouldn't murder people for other silly reasons? Cmon man, think logically.
(07-28-2020 09:05 AM)Monarchblue Wrote: Here is another interesting thing to think about. We have talked about the social cost of lockdowns and high unemployment a fair amount here, but until now we had no numbers to attach to it. A recent survey of violent crime data shows that the increase in murders this year will account for more deaths in people below 30 than COVID if the trends of both causes of death continue on their current trend, but people who are concerned about those incidental costs are called heartless.
Wait, are you claiming that COVID has caused more murders in people under 30?
You don't think that a bunch of young people that are jobless and have been pent up for months while living in a state of constant anxiety perpetuated by the media could lead to unrest and ultimately this huge uptick in murders that we are seeing?
It’s certainly possible but I don’t think we should make that jump without more proof.
And, yet, the shutdown crowd justified its unwarranted attack on our economy, on our schoolchildren and on our way of life based on the most hysterical (and ultimately least accurate) of the models. Millions were sure to die if we if we failed to comply - - and it was just for a short two weeks. But then we had to keep extending and extending the lockdown requirements based upon ever-moving goalposts for what otherwise would surely be many deaths - - okay, not millions, but hundreds of thousands. And now we have to stop reopening and go back into lockdown. Why? Because there are some places in Florida that don't appear to be doing very well. It will surely spread if we don't go back into lockdown mode.
Speculation is all the rage, at least when offered in support of lockdowns. But shame on you, Monarchblue, for speculating about the secondary consequences of what we've done without first having firm data in hand.
Narrative churning is apparently only a one-way street.
As much as we disagree on this topic..and I don't mean this in a condescending way, but I feel badly for you that you feel this is an attack on you, our school children, and our economy. I personally, don't feel like people are saying "hey, lets find a way to attack our children. I know a way, lets shutdown the schools so those poor kids can suffer."
(07-28-2020 09:05 AM)Monarchblue Wrote: Here is another interesting thing to think about. We have talked about the social cost of lockdowns and high unemployment a fair amount here, but until now we had no numbers to attach to it. A recent survey of violent crime data shows that the increase in murders this year will account for more deaths in people below 30 than COVID if the trends of both causes of death continue on their current trend, but people who are concerned about those incidental costs are called heartless.
Wait, are you claiming that COVID has caused more murders in people under 30?
You don't think that a bunch of young people that are jobless and have been pent up for months while living in a state of constant anxiety perpetuated by the media could lead to unrest and ultimately this huge uptick in murders that we are seeing?
It’s certainly possible but I don’t think we should make that jump without more proof.
And, yet, the shutdown crowd justified its unwarranted attack on our economy, on our schoolchildren and on our way of life based on the most hysterical (and ultimately least accurate) of the models. Millions were sure to die if we if we failed to comply - - and it was just for a short two weeks. But then we had to keep extending and extending the lockdown requirements based upon ever-moving goalposts for what otherwise would surely be many deaths - - okay, not millions, but hundreds of thousands. And now we have to stop reopening and go back into lockdown. Why? Because there are some places in Florida that don't appear to be doing very well. It will surely spread if we don't go back into lockdown mode.
Speculation is all the rage, at least when offered in support of lockdowns. But shame on you, Monarchblue, for speculating about the secondary consequences of what we've done without first having firm data in hand.
Narrative churning is apparently only a one-way street.
You are comparing predicting the outcome of an action (lockdown) based on models (and you can certainly argue how accurate the models were) to an analysis of the actual outcome of that action. Those are two different analysis. The effect of all the actions taken to prevent this pandemic have not been as effective as we were led to believe. You can speculate on the reasons why, but I have seen no proof that shutdowns lead to more murders just as I have seen no proof that reduce transmission of COVID. But the latter makes more sense to me than the former. Again, no proof of either though.
(07-28-2020 10:14 AM)Gilesfan Wrote: Wait, are you claiming that COVID has caused more murders in people under 30?
You don't think that a bunch of young people that are jobless and have been pent up for months while living in a state of constant anxiety perpetuated by the media could lead to unrest and ultimately this huge uptick in murders that we are seeing?
It’s certainly possible but I don’t think we should make that jump without more proof.
And, yet, the shutdown crowd justified its unwarranted attack on our economy, on our schoolchildren and on our way of life based on the most hysterical (and ultimately least accurate) of the models. Millions were sure to die if we if we failed to comply - - and it was just for a short two weeks. But then we had to keep extending and extending the lockdown requirements based upon ever-moving goalposts for what otherwise would surely be many deaths - - okay, not millions, but hundreds of thousands. And now we have to stop reopening and go back into lockdown. Why? Because there are some places in Florida that don't appear to be doing very well. It will surely spread if we don't go back into lockdown mode.
Speculation is all the rage, at least when offered in support of lockdowns. But shame on you, Monarchblue, for speculating about the secondary consequences of what we've done without first having firm data in hand.
Narrative churning is apparently only a one-way street.
As much as we disagree on this topic..and I don't mean this in a condescending way, but I feel badly for you that you feel this is an attack on you, our school children, and our economy. I personally, don't feel like people are saying "hey, lets find a way to attack our children. I know a way, lets shutdown the schools so those poor kids can suffer."
Sympathy from Giles. I really don't think that things can get much lower than this.
(07-28-2020 10:18 AM)Monarchblue Wrote: You don't think that a bunch of young people that are jobless and have been pent up for months while living in a state of constant anxiety perpetuated by the media could lead to unrest and ultimately this huge uptick in murders that we are seeing?
It’s certainly possible but I don’t think we should make that jump without more proof.
And, yet, the shutdown crowd justified its unwarranted attack on our economy, on our schoolchildren and on our way of life based on the most hysterical (and ultimately least accurate) of the models. Millions were sure to die if we if we failed to comply - - and it was just for a short two weeks. But then we had to keep extending and extending the lockdown requirements based upon ever-moving goalposts for what otherwise would surely be many deaths - - okay, not millions, but hundreds of thousands. And now we have to stop reopening and go back into lockdown. Why? Because there are some places in Florida that don't appear to be doing very well. It will surely spread if we don't go back into lockdown mode.
Speculation is all the rage, at least when offered in support of lockdowns. But shame on you, Monarchblue, for speculating about the secondary consequences of what we've done without first having firm data in hand.
Narrative churning is apparently only a one-way street.
As much as we disagree on this topic..and I don't mean this in a condescending way, but I feel badly for you that you feel this is an attack on you, our school children, and our economy. I personally, don't feel like people are saying "hey, lets find a way to attack our children. I know a way, lets shutdown the schools so those poor kids can suffer."
Sympathy from Giles. I really don't think that things can get much lower than this.
It's time to put me out to pasture.
I just don't want you out there murdering people bc of coronavirus.
(07-28-2020 12:06 PM)ODUCoach Wrote: To me, this is where I am. There seems to be no solid answer.
I just had that exact conversation with someone over lunch. I suspect we will never get a straight answer, because I don't think anyone has an answer, and that is a real problem. The most common optimistic estimate for wide scale implementation of a vaccine seems to be next summer. So what do we do between now and then? Is the expectation that we keep this up for another year? I can't imagine that anyone thinks that is feasible, and I can't imagine that this virus is going to just disappear short of herd immunity, and if that is the goal, then we are just drawing things out with the policies currently in place. There is absolutely no endgame just endless purgatory.
(07-28-2020 10:14 AM)Gilesfan Wrote: Wait, are you claiming that COVID has caused more murders in people under 30?
You don't think that a bunch of young people that are jobless and have been pent up for months while living in a state of constant anxiety perpetuated by the media could lead to unrest and ultimately this huge uptick in murders that we are seeing?
Some of you have been telling me for 140 pages that young people are going to do what they want to do no matter what the governor says. Is that true or not?
FWIW, the umemployment rate is 11%. Anectdotal evidence, but I don't know of anyone that is still out of work.
What if what they want to do is go to work?
So because they want to go to work and cant, they go and murder people? Just by coincidence, if that is right, who's to say they wouldn't murder people for other silly reasons? Cmon man, think logically.
You, the person who keeps scoffing at experts because, presumably, you know more than them, telling people to think logically may be the most hilarious thing that has happened on this board all week.
(07-28-2020 12:06 PM)ODUCoach Wrote: To me, this is where I am. There seems to be no solid answer.
I just had that exact conversation with someone over lunch. I suspect we will never get a straight answer, because I don't think anyone has an answer, and that is a real problem. The most common optimistic estimate for wide scale implementation of a vaccine seems to be next summer. So what do we do between now and then? Is the expectation that we keep this up for another year? I can't imagine that anyone thinks that is feasible, and I can't imagine that this virus is going to just disappear short of herd immunity, and if that is the goal, then we are just drawing things out with the policies currently in place. There is absolutely no endgame just endless purgatory.
Yeah. A lot of unknowns. What do you want to do about it? If we let things get too bad it'll just have a bigger economic impact. This fall and winter could very well get ugly. Social distancing, masks, not being able to go to movies and concerts? That's not sustainable compared to the alternative? It seems pretty clear that millions aren't going to die by next year so long as it doesn't mutate (maybe a million) but we still have to contain the virus to avoid other bad scenarios. If you think a coin and TP shortage is bad think about if a large number of workers get sick within a few months time and supply chains are disrupted. Opening up and pretending there is no problem is not an option. Schools opening is the only main question in my mind and we'll know within a few months how safe that turns out to be because there will be plenty of schools opening in a month or so. The rest? Yeah, this is how it is. It'll be pretty clear when it's over.
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OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
