(05-08-2020 09:50 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(05-08-2020 09:28 AM)VA49er Wrote:  

(05-08-2020 08:41 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(05-08-2020 08:31 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(05-08-2020 05:55 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  Now do the ACTUAL deaths per year from the basic types of flu. It's around 3k to 15k per year, nowhere near the usually reported estimate of 40k.

ok, how about this?

CDC: 80,000 people died of flu last winter in U.S., highest death toll in 40 years
By ASSOCIATED PRESSSEPTEMBER 26, 2018

https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-...hs-winter/

Also, do you have any idea how many people died of the flu THIS flu season? Perhaps look it up.

Don't quit your day job...

Quote:NEW YORK — An estimated 80,000 Americans died of flu and its complications last winter — the disease’s highest death toll in at least four decades.

Does that mean we shouldn't take all the estimated COVID death numbers seriously? I mean, those are estimated as well going forward........

Estimated? Of course not. But the COVID death toll is fairly official at this point of over 75k.

If you count flu deaths for prior years the way we are currently counting COVID deaths, they would range from 3k to 15k per year. The CDC estimates of flu death that people frequently use to try and diminish COVID as just another flu are estimates and also include deaths from pneumonia.

You can read more here:
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/obs...o-oranges/

OK, at least we agree the "estimated" 160,000+ US deaths can be relegated to the "spread fear" drawer.

long and short of it is FL Gov Ron deSantis got it right, and that was the model to follow. It turns out is was a bit of an overreaction to shut the entire economy down, well, except for liquor stores, as those were somehow deemed "essential". Keeping beaches open as DeSantis and Ga Gov Kemp did, and focusing intervention and mitigation on places of high risk, such as senior centers and long-term care centers, and not cooping up everyone in their homes all day fo0r months, a la NYC idiot Mayor DeBlasio and moron Governor Cuomo, actually saved lives. meanwhile, those dictatorial leaders closing parks and beaches and such actually saw more [people getting sick and infected and dying than those Governors who were more balanced and measured in their responses. Opening everything back up quickly seems to be the right thing to do. Keeping things shut down kills more people and causes more Covid infections. Red states and cities generally did better than Blue states and cities. No big surprise there.

(05-08-2020 11:05 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(05-07-2020 02:12 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  They have to explain their way around it to make sound like the bogus numbers reported on the news "may" be right.
CDC explanation for death count
45,600 Covid deaths and 71,000+ Pneumonia deaths so far this year. 51,000 pneumonia deaths NOT attributed to Covid.

As much as I appreciate the attempt to send me a file from your C: drive, user Mickey, that's not how the internet works.

Haha

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

(05-08-2020 11:03 AM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote:  

(05-08-2020 05:55 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  Now do the ACTUAL deaths per year from the basic types of flu. It's around 3k to 15k per year, nowhere near the usually reported estimate of 40k.

Those are the CDC's own numbers fool.

And they are an estimate and they include deaths from pneumonia.

It's all spelled out in the article I posted above.

(05-08-2020 10:53 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  

(05-07-2020 02:34 PM)TripleA Wrote:  Factcheck.org (often needing to be fact checked itself) claims that it's fake news, that there are 2 different numbers. One is the number of people who died with death certificates, the other is the total reported by health agencies, inclusive of death certificates, but including many more. The difference was 37,000 vs. 64,000.

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/05/cdc-ha...eath-toll/

Not that you're saying this, but someone might imply it from the way you wrote it....

Nobody dies without a death cert in this country. They are not always prepared/finalized quickly.

In an effort to be timely, Health agencies don't always wait for death certs for their reporting


please see below

(05-08-2020 05:55 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  Now do the ACTUAL deaths per year from the basic types of flu. It's around 3k to 15k per year, nowhere near the usually reported estimate of 40k.

Educate yourself, Tom.... For anything other than COVID-19, death certificates require a conclusive finding of 'flu' to have that on the death certificate... since lots of people, especially seniors with comorbidities, die without an autopsy (or often without a hospitalization, at home or in a center) they may not have that confirmation.. Flu tests are not that conclusive and since you'll treat someone with suspected flu as if they have it, getting a flu test is not a big deal when someone with chronic severe COPD is dying.

The CDC does, and has for a very long time... 'estimated' the number of flu associated deaths per year, and this is the primary number that they have always reported.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
2010-2011 37k
2011-2012 12k
2012-2013 43k
2013-2014 38k
2014-2015 51k
2015-2016 23k
2016-2017 38k
2017-2018 prelim estimate 61k
2018-2019 prelim estimate 34k

You might also look at the 95% confidence range.... for 2017-2028, the range was 46k-95k. If someone wanted to fudge the numbers and play games (like you're doing, though I don't think it intentional) they'd be telling you (correctly) that according to the CDC the 2017-2018 number COULD have been 95k.

For Covid, not all states health departments report what is on the death certificate as the cause of death. They instead have a more simple 'report' made to the state... so some report two numbers... one with only confirmed cases to the state, and one reported to the CDC that follows the CDC COD death certificate requirement to include 'probable' and 'presumed'... which is not allowed for flu or any other unconfirmed disease. States who report the 'other' number are not doing 'wrong', because for every other disease, there wouldn't be a difference.

The CDC is trying to provide people like you a proper frame of reference for comparison... and because these flu numbers aren't 'newly' reported... nobody can claim that they only started doing this because of covid.

So....
You can't add up the state numbers and get the CDC numbers because it's not always apples:apples.

You also can't look at today's number and assume that it won't change... because states and docs don't all report death certs immediately.... most do within a few days, almost all within a few weeks.... and SOME cases (not many but a few) can take a long time to resolve if there is a legal question/dispute.... hence why 2017-2018 is still preliminary

NOBODY in this country dies without a death certificate (eventually)

and the proper number for comparison to the reported COVID numbers IS the 'estimated' Flu deaths.

That's a lot of words...again designed to obfuscate the fact that yes, the CDC annual deaths from the regular flu season is nothing but an estimate, and one that includes deaths from pneumonia.

Quote:The 25,000 to 69,000 numbers that Trump cited do not represent counted flu deaths per year; they are estimates that the CDC produces by multiplying the number of flu death counts reported by various coefficients produced through complicated algorithms. These coefficients are based on assumptions of how many cases, hospitalizations, and deaths they believe went unreported. In the last six flu seasons, the CDC’s reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths—that is, counting flu deaths the way we are currently counting deaths from the coronavirus—has ranged from 3,448 to 15,620, which far lower than the numbers commonly repeated by public officials and even public health experts.

(05-09-2020 12:44 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  That's a lot of words...again designed to obfuscate the fact that yes, the CDC annual deaths from the regular flu season is nothing but an estimate, and one that includes deaths from pneumonia.

Quote:The 25,000 to 69,000 numbers that Trump cited do not represent counted flu deaths per year; they are estimates that the CDC produces by multiplying the number of flu death counts reported by various coefficients produced through complicated algorithms. These coefficients are based on assumptions of how many cases, hospitalizations, and deaths they believe went unreported. In the last six flu seasons, the CDC’s reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths—that is, counting flu deaths the way we are currently counting deaths from the coronavirus—has ranged from 3,448 to 15,620, which far lower than the numbers commonly repeated by public officials and even public health experts.

This makes it sound like they just make up a number. Actually, their projection methods are pretty sound. The difference between flu and CV-19 is that, as reflected in the CDC methodology, many flu cases do not make it into the system, whereas it is reasonable to assume that because of the scare factor, almost all. CV-19 cases are making it into the system. Equating recorded CV-19 deaths to projected flu deaths is not an entirely unreasonable comparison.

CDC is really good at some things. Statistical data would be one of those things. They are really bad at some other things. Emergency response would be one of those things.

Well the official list has us topping 80k. Here are the top 30 in deaths per million. Still way behind most of Western Europe.

Country Deaths Deaths / New Tests Estimated Confirmed Confirmed Case Confirmed Cases / Seasonal Flu Deaths1
1M pop Deaths Cases Cases Fatality Rate 1M pop (CDC/WHO 2017)
280,431 - - - - 4,100,623 - - -
Channel Islands 41 11,072.10 - 5,342 - 545 7.52% 147,178.00 -
Diamond Princess 13 3,679.60 - - - 712 1.83% 201,528.40 -
San Marino 41 1,213.60 - 2,956 - 637 6.44% 18,854.50 -
Belgium 8,581 751.3 - 540,643 - 52,596 16.31% 4,604.80 2,662
Andorra 48 623.3 - 1,673 - 754 6.37% 9,791.40 -
Spain 26,478 566.7 - 2,467,761 - 262,783 10.08% 5,624.20 8,091
Italy 30,395 503 - 2,514,234 - 218,268 13.93% 3,611.80 10,058
United Kingdom 31,587 475.1 - 1,728,443 - 215,260 14.67% 3,237.50 13,879
France 26,310 392.8 - 1,384,633 - 176,658 14.89% 2,637.20 9,199
Sint Maarten 15 356.4 - 329 - 76 19.74% 1,806.00 -
Sweden 3,220 316.2 - 148,500 - 25,921 12.42% 2,545.50 1,541
Netherlands 5,422 314.7 - 249,655 - 42,382 12.79% 2,459.60 2,312
Ireland 1,446 297.9 - 214,761 - 22,760 6.35% 4,689.40 510
Isle of Man 23 276.1 - 3,625 - 329 6.99% 3,948.90 -
United States 80,037 244.6 - 8,918,263 - 1,347,309 5.94% 4,118.10 40,905
Switzerland 1,830 214.9 - 306,223 - 30,251 6.05% 3,552.00 1,342
Montserrat 1 186.1 - 36 - 11 9.09% 2,047.30 -
Luxembourg 101 166.2 - 54,463 - 3,877 2.61% 6,379.50 91
Canada 4,693 126.6 - 1,068,000 - 67,702 6.93% 1,826.90 4,569
Portugal 1,126 109.5 - 517,660 - 27,406 4.11% 2,665.50 2,020
Bermuda 7 109.3 - 4,020 - 118 5.93% 1,843.00 -
Monaco 4 103.4 - - - 96 4.17% 2,481.80 -
Ecuador 1,717 100.5 - 83,657 - 29,071 5.91% 1,701.60 1,444
Saint Martin 3 92.1 - - - 39 7.69% 1,197.90 -
Germany 7,549 91 - 2,755,770 - 171,324 4.41% 2,065.90 16,876
Denmark 526 90.7 - 308,984 - 10,319 5.10% 1,779.90 922
Iran** 6,589 80.5 - 573,220 - 106,220 6.20% 1,298.50 3,156
Austria 615 69.5 - 311,690 - 15,833 3.88% 1,789.60 624
Peru 1,814 56.7 - 494,250 - 65,015 2.79% 2,032.40 9,212
Panama 237 56.7 6 40,356 - 8,282 2.86% 1,982.80 275

NY, NJ and CT still have about half the US deaths.

Worldometer is not an accurate count. They get their data from everywhere. This is the link to the REAL numbers. 47k+ CoVid deaths. 72k pneumonia deaths per death certs.
CDC provisional death counts