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(04-20-2020 03:08 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  Late last week the models showed Florida experiencing a peak in fatal coronavirus cases on April 23 with 239 deaths per day during the worst of the epidemic. Late Monday, IHME updated its projections again to show the death toll will be closer to 128 per day on May 6, but the number of total deaths over the next few months actually went up.

By early August, Florida could have more than 4,747 deaths from COVID-19, if these models prove true.

Did you just make something up?

(04-21-2020 06:24 AM)757ODU Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 03:08 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  Late last week the models showed Florida experiencing a peak in fatal coronavirus cases on April 23 with 239 deaths per day during the worst of the epidemic. Late Monday, IHME updated its projections again to show the death toll will be closer to 128 per day on May 6, but the number of total deaths over the next few months actually went up.

By early August, Florida could have more than 4,747 deaths from COVID-19, if these models prove true.

Did you just make something up?

Just to point this out, over 30,000 people die in car accidents yet we don't ban cars or shutdown the economy out of fear of dying in a car.

(04-21-2020 06:40 AM)FTW ODU Wrote:  

(04-21-2020 06:24 AM)757ODU Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 03:08 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  Late last week the models showed Florida experiencing a peak in fatal coronavirus cases on April 23 with 239 deaths per day during the worst of the epidemic. Late Monday, IHME updated its projections again to show the death toll will be closer to 128 per day on May 6, but the number of total deaths over the next few months actually went up.

By early August, Florida could have more than 4,747 deaths from COVID-19, if these models prove true.

Did you just make something up?

Just to point this out, over 30,000 people die in car accidents yet we don't ban cars or shutdown the economy out of fear of dying in a car.

Car accidents are not contagious.

(04-21-2020 06:41 AM)757ODU Wrote:  

(04-21-2020 06:40 AM)FTW ODU Wrote:  

(04-21-2020 06:24 AM)757ODU Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 03:08 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  Late last week the models showed Florida experiencing a peak in fatal coronavirus cases on April 23 with 239 deaths per day during the worst of the epidemic. Late Monday, IHME updated its projections again to show the death toll will be closer to 128 per day on May 6, but the number of total deaths over the next few months actually went up.

By early August, Florida could have more than 4,747 deaths from COVID-19, if these models prove true.

Did you just make something up?

Just to point this out, over 30,000 people die in car accidents yet we don't ban cars or shutdown the economy out of fear of dying in a car.

Car accidents are not contagious.

And we have a ton of laws in place to limit accidents. And if you don't follow those rules, you get banned from driving by losing your license.

(04-21-2020 06:40 AM)FTW ODU Wrote:  

(04-21-2020 06:24 AM)757ODU Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 03:08 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  Late last week the models showed Florida experiencing a peak in fatal coronavirus cases on April 23 with 239 deaths per day during the worst of the epidemic. Late Monday, IHME updated its projections again to show the death toll will be closer to 128 per day on May 6, but the number of total deaths over the next few months actually went up.

By early August, Florida could have more than 4,747 deaths from COVID-19, if these models prove true.

Did you just make something up?

Just to point this out, over 30,000 people die in car accidents yet we don't ban cars or shutdown the economy out of fear of dying in a car.

Apples and Oranges

(04-21-2020 06:24 AM)757ODU Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 03:08 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  Late last week the models showed Florida experiencing a peak in fatal coronavirus cases on April 23 with 239 deaths per day during the worst of the epidemic. Late Monday, IHME updated its projections again to show the death toll will be closer to 128 per day on May 6, but the number of total deaths over the next few months actually went up.

By early August, Florida could have more than 4,747 deaths from COVID-19, if these models prove true.

Did you just make something up?

No, the model was updated.

(04-20-2020 11:38 PM)DaBigBlue Wrote:  Denmark a country where my son lives, which has free health care for all. They moved quickly to close things down and now reopening. He was out today in the park, said it was a good crowd. Danes tend to socially distance naturally. Only 300 deaths in the country. Their healthcare system worked, was prepared and not overtaxed. Hopefully we can turn the curve.

Denmark showed what may have been possible if we acted early like they did.

(04-21-2020 06:40 AM)FTW ODU Wrote:  

(04-21-2020 06:24 AM)757ODU Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 03:08 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  Late last week the models showed Florida experiencing a peak in fatal coronavirus cases on April 23 with 239 deaths per day during the worst of the epidemic. Late Monday, IHME updated its projections again to show the death toll will be closer to 128 per day on May 6, but the number of total deaths over the next few months actually went up.

By early August, Florida could have more than 4,747 deaths from COVID-19, if these models prove true.

Did you just make something up?

Just to point this out, over 30,000 people die in car accidents yet we don't ban cars or shutdown the economy out of fear of dying in a car.

Irrelevant

If over a million people were gonna die over the course of 3 months thru car accidents, maybe it could compare.

(04-20-2020 12:22 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 12:03 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 09:50 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 09:46 AM)Monarchblue Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 09:39 AM)smudge12 Wrote:  I think Gilesfan has a good point. The mortality rate isn't as important as the infection rate. Without all the measures being taken, the number of deaths would be significantly larger.

And let's not forget that the primary point is to "flatten the curve" and not strain our medical infrastructure.

If millions of people already have the virus, the curve has already been broken. It means the flattening that you are seeing is happening organically. I am not sure that you realize it, but nearly half the deaths in the US occurred in and around New York. For most of the rest of the country, this looks a lot more like the flu than the nightmare that took place in NYC.

There are 10,000 deaths in NYC and almost 14,000 in NY overall. The U.S. has 41,000 deaths.

Wanna add adjacent areas of NJ and CT into that?

We can make it as wide as you want.

Quote:According to The New York Times coronavirus report, as of Sunday, April 19, 2:48 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, there were 35,676 COVID-19 deaths in the United States. Of those deaths, 18,690 were in the New York metropolitan area.

Quote:What makes this statistic particularly noteworthy is that the entire death toll for 41 of the other 47 states is 7,661.

So here is an interesting question that I read. If half of the case in the US were in Montana instead of NY would we have shut the entire country down?

(04-21-2020 10:09 AM)Monarchblue Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 12:22 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 12:03 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 09:50 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 09:46 AM)Monarchblue Wrote:  If millions of people already have the virus, the curve has already been broken. It means the flattening that you are seeing is happening organically. I am not sure that you realize it, but nearly half the deaths in the US occurred in and around New York. For most of the rest of the country, this looks a lot more like the flu than the nightmare that took place in NYC.

There are 10,000 deaths in NYC and almost 14,000 in NY overall. The U.S. has 41,000 deaths.

Wanna add adjacent areas of NJ and CT into that?

We can make it as wide as you want.

Quote:According to The New York Times coronavirus report, as of Sunday, April 19, 2:48 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, there were 35,676 COVID-19 deaths in the United States. Of those deaths, 18,690 were in the New York metropolitan area.

Quote:What makes this statistic particularly noteworthy is that the entire death toll for 41 of the other 47 states is 7,661.

So here is an interesting question that I read. If half of the case in the US were in Montana instead of NY would we have shut the entire country down?

If half the cases were in Montana then something like 40 percent of its population was infected so far, and we'd be way more strict with social-distancing and shelter-in-place protocols because if it could happen there, it sure as hell could happen here.

(04-21-2020 10:38 AM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(04-21-2020 10:09 AM)Monarchblue Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 12:22 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 12:03 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 09:50 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  There are 10,000 deaths in NYC and almost 14,000 in NY overall. The U.S. has 41,000 deaths.

Wanna add adjacent areas of NJ and CT into that?

We can make it as wide as you want.

Quote:According to The New York Times coronavirus report, as of Sunday, April 19, 2:48 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, there were 35,676 COVID-19 deaths in the United States. Of those deaths, 18,690 were in the New York metropolitan area.

Quote:What makes this statistic particularly noteworthy is that the entire death toll for 41 of the other 47 states is 7,661.

So here is an interesting question that I read. If half of the case in the US were in Montana instead of NY would we have shut the entire country down?

If half the cases were in Montana then something like 40 percent of its population was infected so far, and we'd be way more strict with social-distancing and shelter-in-place protocols because if it could happen there, it sure as hell could happen here.

No comments on the rest of that? Does it not seem that if 41 states account for a total of 7,661 deaths, that maybe those states should be open for business, or at the very least we should be attacking this thing in a much more surgical manner?

BTW, that means that there is an average of 187 deaths across 82% of the states in the country.

(04-21-2020 10:09 AM)Monarchblue Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 12:22 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 12:03 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 09:50 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 09:46 AM)Monarchblue Wrote:  If millions of people already have the virus, the curve has already been broken. It means the flattening that you are seeing is happening organically. I am not sure that you realize it, but nearly half the deaths in the US occurred in and around New York. For most of the rest of the country, this looks a lot more like the flu than the nightmare that took place in NYC.

There are 10,000 deaths in NYC and almost 14,000 in NY overall. The U.S. has 41,000 deaths.

Wanna add adjacent areas of NJ and CT into that?

We can make it as wide as you want.

Quote:According to The New York Times coronavirus report, as of Sunday, April 19, 2:48 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, there were 35,676 COVID-19 deaths in the United States. Of those deaths, 18,690 were in the New York metropolitan area.

Quote:What makes this statistic particularly noteworthy is that the entire death toll for 41 of the other 47 states is 7,661.

So here is an interesting question that I read. If half of the case in the US were in Montana instead of NY would we have shut the entire country down?

I really wish you would provide links when quoting something.

We are at 43,000 deaths now. Where have the last 8,000 come from?

My guess is New York is hit hardest and first and that the numbers in other areas will increase behind New York.

(04-21-2020 10:45 AM)Monarchblue Wrote:  

(04-21-2020 10:38 AM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(04-21-2020 10:09 AM)Monarchblue Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 12:22 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 12:03 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  Wanna add adjacent areas of NJ and CT into that?

We can make it as wide as you want.

Quote:According to The New York Times coronavirus report, as of Sunday, April 19, 2:48 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, there were 35,676 COVID-19 deaths in the United States. Of those deaths, 18,690 were in the New York metropolitan area.

Quote:What makes this statistic particularly noteworthy is that the entire death toll for 41 of the other 47 states is 7,661.

So here is an interesting question that I read. If half of the case in the US were in Montana instead of NY would we have shut the entire country down?

If half the cases were in Montana then something like 40 percent of its population was infected so far, and we'd be way more strict with social-distancing and shelter-in-place protocols because if it could happen there, it sure as hell could happen here.

No comments on the rest of that? Does it not seem that if 41 states account for a total of 7,661 deaths, that maybe those states should be open for business, or at the very least we should be attacking this thing in a much more surgical manner?

BTW, that means that there is an average of 187 deaths across 82% of the states in the country.

Because of social distancing.

(04-21-2020 10:45 AM)Monarchblue Wrote:  

(04-21-2020 10:38 AM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(04-21-2020 10:09 AM)Monarchblue Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 12:22 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 12:03 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  Wanna add adjacent areas of NJ and CT into that?

We can make it as wide as you want.

Quote:According to The New York Times coronavirus report, as of Sunday, April 19, 2:48 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, there were 35,676 COVID-19 deaths in the United States. Of those deaths, 18,690 were in the New York metropolitan area.

Quote:What makes this statistic particularly noteworthy is that the entire death toll for 41 of the other 47 states is 7,661.

So here is an interesting question that I read. If half of the case in the US were in Montana instead of NY would we have shut the entire country down?

If half the cases were in Montana then something like 40 percent of its population was infected so far, and we'd be way more strict with social-distancing and shelter-in-place protocols because if it could happen there, it sure as hell could happen here.

No comments on the rest of that? Does it not seem that if 41 states account for a total of 7,661 deaths, that maybe those states should be open for business, or at the very least we should be attacking this thing in a much more surgical manner?

BTW, that means that there is an average of 187 deaths across 82% of the states in the country.

So far. You're extrapolating results as of now the rest of the way. Do you honestly think that per-state rates won't change or can't change as the virus spreads? That New York will always have the same rate of deaths and infections because, I dunno the virus is attracted to overrated pizza? By that logic we never should have gotten the virus in the first place because at one point in its development, it only existed in China, so taking that to its natural conclusion, that's where it will always stay.

I won't answer the other questions because what's the point? Your stance has from Day One been that this isn't a big deal and we should keep on keeping on. Everything COVID related is going to go through that filter. At this point, the only way you're going to change your mind is if it affects you directly. Not judging, just pointing that out based on your comment history. That's fine. I think you're dead wrong on this, but that's your right.

And in fairness, you could say the same about me, and my defense would be this: I'm not an epidemiologist or medical expert or head of state. And at first I thought it was a bit overkill, that it was obviously a deadly virus that needed to be treated with care and respect, but a month ago I was planning to go to Gatlinburg to drink my weight in moonshine. But people whose judgement and expertise I trust dissuaded me of that notion, that this was far more serious than I ever considered, and that my actions going forward should reflect that. I'm no expert, I just know who I trust, and when it comes to doctors, I'll take Fauci and Birx over Drew and Phil.

(04-21-2020 10:45 AM)Monarchblue Wrote:  

(04-21-2020 10:38 AM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(04-21-2020 10:09 AM)Monarchblue Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 12:22 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 12:03 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  Wanna add adjacent areas of NJ and CT into that?

We can make it as wide as you want.

Quote:According to The New York Times coronavirus report, as of Sunday, April 19, 2:48 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, there were 35,676 COVID-19 deaths in the United States. Of those deaths, 18,690 were in the New York metropolitan area.

Quote:What makes this statistic particularly noteworthy is that the entire death toll for 41 of the other 47 states is 7,661.

So here is an interesting question that I read. If half of the case in the US were in Montana instead of NY would we have shut the entire country down?

If half the cases were in Montana then something like 40 percent of its population was infected so far, and we'd be way more strict with social-distancing and shelter-in-place protocols because if it could happen there, it sure as hell could happen here.

No comments on the rest of that? Does it not seem that if 41 states account for a total of 7,661 deaths, that maybe those states should be open for business, or at the very least we should be attacking this thing in a much more surgical manner?

BTW, that means that there is an average of 187 deaths across 82% of the states in the country.

No. We shut the country down well before NY was such an issue. 42K deaths in 7 weeks is what happens WITH social distancing across most of the globe let alone the US. NY is the densest population area in the country so it makes sense that even with social distancing the spread is hard to contain. But it's everywhere and would likely spread quickly in small and mid-sized cities without restriction. More surgical would be great. Alas, we still lack the testing capabilities.

(04-21-2020 08:32 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 11:38 PM)DaBigBlue Wrote:  Denmark a country where my son lives, which has free health care for all. They moved quickly to close things down and now reopening. He was out today in the park, said it was a good crowd. Danes tend to socially distance naturally. Only 300 deaths in the country. Their healthcare system worked, was prepared and not overtaxed. Hopefully we can turn the curve.

Denmark showed what may have been possible if we acted early like they did.

A few quick Google searches to make sure you aren't just making things up again... Denmark locked down 3 days before us (March 13th vs March 16th) and Europe was in much worse shape than us at the time. Not sure why they were spared... perhaps less international travel and/or less immigrant populations from the wrong people, but it isn't because they did anything special.

(04-21-2020 08:34 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(04-21-2020 06:40 AM)FTW ODU Wrote:  

(04-21-2020 06:24 AM)757ODU Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 03:08 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  Late last week the models showed Florida experiencing a peak in fatal coronavirus cases on April 23 with 239 deaths per day during the worst of the epidemic. Late Monday, IHME updated its projections again to show the death toll will be closer to 128 per day on May 6, but the number of total deaths over the next few months actually went up.

By early August, Florida could have more than 4,747 deaths from COVID-19, if these models prove true.

Did you just make something up?

Just to point this out, over 30,000 people die in car accidents yet we don't ban cars or shutdown the economy out of fear of dying in a car.

Irrelevant

If over a million people were gonna die over the course of 3 months thru car accidents, maybe it could compare.

I could probably apply enough fuzzy math and wild assumptions to create that model.

Two things:

If the model was any good why does it have to be updated daily?

Approximately 7,700 people died in the US daily in 2017. How many are dying a day today? So at that rate 400,400 would have died since March 1st this year. Just something to think about

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

(04-21-2020 11:50 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(04-21-2020 08:32 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 11:38 PM)DaBigBlue Wrote:  Denmark a country where my son lives, which has free health care for all. They moved quickly to close things down and now reopening. He was out today in the park, said it was a good crowd. Danes tend to socially distance naturally. Only 300 deaths in the country. Their healthcare system worked, was prepared and not overtaxed. Hopefully we can turn the curve.

Denmark showed what may have been possible if we acted early like they did.

A few quick Google searches to make sure you aren't just making things up again... Denmark locked down 3 days before us (March 13th vs March 16th) and Europe was in much worse shape than us at the time. Not sure why they were spared... perhaps less international travel and/or less immigrant populations from the wrong people, but it isn't because they did anything special.

Denmark was the 2nd European country to lockdown.

You need to check your dates on when the U.S. locked things down.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/coronavi...arges.html

(04-21-2020 12:10 PM)TheDancinMonarch Wrote:  Two things:

If the model was any good why does it have to be updated daily?

Approximately 7,700 people died in the US daily in 2017. How many are dying a day today? So at that rate 400,400 would have died since March 1st this year. Just something to think about

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

Because with any model the more information you get the better the model is. Why are top 25 rankings updated weekly?

The question is how many would have died, not how many are dying.