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I hope you are right as if this is true perhaps we can get up and running for the summer... but 2 days ago the same prediction was saying May 20th. One thing we learned for sure now is these models are to be taken with a grain of salt.

(04-08-2020 10:02 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  I hope you are right as if this is true perhaps we can get up and running for the summer... but 2 days ago the same prediction was saying May 20th. One thing we learned for sure now is these models are to be taken with a grain of salt.

Models are nothing more than someone's opinion wrapped up in scientific mumbo jumbo.

NY not out of the woods yet, Long Island is apparently a new hot spot. This is going to be a painfully long process. I would be surprised if we are back in the swing of things before June.

(04-08-2020 10:08 AM)TheDancinMonarch Wrote:  

(04-08-2020 10:02 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  I hope you are right as if this is true perhaps we can get up and running for the summer... but 2 days ago the same prediction was saying May 20th. One thing we learned for sure now is these models are to be taken with a grain of salt.

Models are nothing more than someone's opinion wrapped up in scientific mumbo jumbo.

I believe there may be some math involved, along with lots of assumptions...

(04-08-2020 10:18 AM)MONARCHSWIN Wrote:  

(04-08-2020 10:08 AM)TheDancinMonarch Wrote:  

(04-08-2020 10:02 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  I hope you are right as if this is true perhaps we can get up and running for the summer... but 2 days ago the same prediction was saying May 20th. One thing we learned for sure now is these models are to be taken with a grain of salt.

Models are nothing more than someone's opinion wrapped up in scientific mumbo jumbo.

I believe there may be some math involved, along with lots of assumptions...

Obviously. People get paid well to make assumptions based on the data we have. The models I've quoted were remarkably accurate in predictions for other Countries. The difficulty of predicting is trying to determine how many people will social distance.

People don't want to believe the stats if it doesn't fit their opinions.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-st...a/virginia

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shot...FUnWMB2nXM

(04-08-2020 10:17 AM)BigBlueMonarch Wrote:  NY not out of the woods yet, Long Island is apparently a new hot spot. This is going to be a painfully long process. I would be surprised if we are back in the swing of things before June.

I don't know anyone believing we will be back up and running before June. That would be absolute best case scenario. Unless the backtrack and send everyone out to get exposed to it.

So, the models now say Virginia’s peak is April 20. Since Friday, the number of beds needed according to the model has fallen from 6154 to 1615, ICU from 918 to 319, and ventilators from 734 to 272. If all these hold to be true, tell me why we can’t reopen our economy by May 15?

(04-08-2020 12:04 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:  So, the models now say Virginia’s peak is April 20. Since Friday, the number of beds needed according to the model has fallen from 6154 to 1615, ICU from 918 to 319, and ventilators from 734 to 272. If all these hold to be true, tell me why we can’t reopen our economy by May 15?

Its a bell curve. It took what..6 weeks to build up to the peak, I think? The models are applied based on the assumption of social distancing through May. If you stop the social distancing, the numbers skyrocket and new projections need to be made.

So even with social distancing, there are still cases (the number should be dropping) that are occurring for a few weeks after April 20th.

June 1st is an optimistic but hopefully possible "restart." Though if we start back too soon, we just wasted 6 weeks.

Screw it. Let’s keep the shutdown indefinitely. I don’t want to see anyone get sick, ever.

With all of the models we see and all of the data we are presented, why do we not see data that tracks cases, hospital beds, ICU, fatalities, etc broken down by region (Radio market probably works best). I suspect if we did see that, it would be eye opening to the fact that there are a handful of hot spots, and a huge majority of markets that have no substantial issues. My guess is we don't see that data because it doesn't fit the narrative that everybody wants us to but into.

“How the CDC and FDA Wrecked our Economy”

https://reason.com/2020/04/08/how-the-cd...e-economy/

(04-08-2020 12:19 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:  Screw it. Let’s keep the shutdown indefinitely. I don’t want to see anyone get sick, ever.

But, you don't mind perfectly healthy people dying in a matter of 2 weeks?

(04-08-2020 12:30 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(04-08-2020 12:19 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:  Screw it. Let’s keep the shutdown indefinitely. I don’t want to see anyone get sick, ever.

But, you don't mind perfectly healthy people dying in a matter of 2 weeks?

We have to take risks every day. The risk of a perfectly healthy person getting infected and then dying is one we have to be willing to take at some point. I mean, there are lots of ways a perfectly healthy person can die, and yet, until this one, we’ve never shut down our whole economy because of them.

(04-08-2020 12:29 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:  “How the CDC and FDA Wrecked our Economy”

https://reason.com/2020/04/08/how-the-cd...e-economy/

That makes the point. We failed 3-4 months ago because we were treating it like some china virus that we didn't have to worry about. If we would have prepared 3-4 months ago, we wouldn't have needed such drastic social distancing measures. But, we didn't take it serious until a week before it became an issue. Because we werent prepared, we had to take drastic measures to combat it and it wrecked the economy for the time being.

Our doctors and nurses are dropping like flies......and thats with social distancing measures.

(04-08-2020 12:33 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:  

(04-08-2020 12:30 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(04-08-2020 12:19 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:  Screw it. Let’s keep the shutdown indefinitely. I don’t want to see anyone get sick, ever.

But, you don't mind perfectly healthy people dying in a matter of 2 weeks?

We have to take risks every day. The risk of a perfectly healthy person getting infected and then dying is one we have to be willing to take at some point. I mean, there are lots of ways a perfectly healthy person can die, and yet, until this one, we’ve never shut down our whole economy because of them.

We are talking about probabilities though. This would have shutdown our economy either way; if hundreds of thousands of people die off, how do you think people would react?

(04-08-2020 12:35 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(04-08-2020 12:33 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:  

(04-08-2020 12:30 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(04-08-2020 12:19 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:  Screw it. Let’s keep the shutdown indefinitely. I don’t want to see anyone get sick, ever.

But, you don't mind perfectly healthy people dying in a matter of 2 weeks?

We have to take risks every day. The risk of a perfectly healthy person getting infected and then dying is one we have to be willing to take at some point. I mean, there are lots of ways a perfectly healthy person can die, and yet, until this one, we’ve never shut down our whole economy because of them.

We are talking about probabilities though. This would have shutdown our economy either way; if hundreds of thousands of people die off, how do you think people would react?

I don't think there is any hard evidence that the entire economy would have been shut down, or that there would have been a massive number of deaths had we focused on quarantining the hot spots and monitoring the rest of the localities.

As I have mentioned previously, because of the military, we are likely one of the least socially distanced areas in the entire country, yet we have about 350 confirmed cases and like 1 death in the entire Southside of Hampton Roads (Based on the Johns Hopkins Map). It really looks like the models completely missed the mark on suburban and rural areas.

(04-08-2020 12:35 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(04-08-2020 12:33 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:  

(04-08-2020 12:30 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(04-08-2020 12:19 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:  Screw it. Let’s keep the shutdown indefinitely. I don’t want to see anyone get sick, ever.

But, you don't mind perfectly healthy people dying in a matter of 2 weeks?

We have to take risks every day. The risk of a perfectly healthy person getting infected and then dying is one we have to be willing to take at some point. I mean, there are lots of ways a perfectly healthy person can die, and yet, until this one, we’ve never shut down our whole economy because of them.

We are talking about probabilities though. This would have shutdown our economy either way; if hundreds of thousands of people die off, how do you think people would react?

That's an aspect people seem to forget: This isn't a matter of an entire country raring to go back to their pre-COVID life immediately but are being held back by malevolent forces. Even if you issued an unqualified all-clear signal tonight, most businesses and consumers are either going to tread very slowly or continue shutdown protocol if they think there's a reasonable threat of increased spread. This isn't going to be an on/off switch, it's going to be a very slowly moving dimmer switch.

(04-08-2020 12:45 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(04-08-2020 12:35 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(04-08-2020 12:33 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:  

(04-08-2020 12:30 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(04-08-2020 12:19 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:  Screw it. Let’s keep the shutdown indefinitely. I don’t want to see anyone get sick, ever.

But, you don't mind perfectly healthy people dying in a matter of 2 weeks?

We have to take risks every day. The risk of a perfectly healthy person getting infected and then dying is one we have to be willing to take at some point. I mean, there are lots of ways a perfectly healthy person can die, and yet, until this one, we’ve never shut down our whole economy because of them.

We are talking about probabilities though. This would have shutdown our economy either way; if hundreds of thousands of people die off, how do you think people would react?

That's an aspect people seem to forget: This isn't a matter of an entire country raring to go back to their pre-COVID life immediately but are being held back by malevolent forces. Even if you issued an unqualified all-clear signal tonight, most businesses and consumers are either going to tread very slowly or continue shutdown protocol if they think there's a reasonable threat of increased spread. This isn't going to be an on/off switch, it's going to be a very slowly moving dimmer switch.

If that is the case, then we probably don't need sweeping shutdown orders, and should manage our approach much more locally.

(04-08-2020 12:44 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  

(04-08-2020 12:35 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(04-08-2020 12:33 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:  

(04-08-2020 12:30 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(04-08-2020 12:19 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:  Screw it. Let’s keep the shutdown indefinitely. I don’t want to see anyone get sick, ever.

But, you don't mind perfectly healthy people dying in a matter of 2 weeks?

We have to take risks every day. The risk of a perfectly healthy person getting infected and then dying is one we have to be willing to take at some point. I mean, there are lots of ways a perfectly healthy person can die, and yet, until this one, we’ve never shut down our whole economy because of them.

We are talking about probabilities though. This would have shutdown our economy either way; if hundreds of thousands of people die off, how do you think people would react?

I don't think there is any hard evidence that the entire economy would have been shut down, or that there would have been a massive number of deaths had we focused on quarantining the hot spots and monitoring the rest of the localities.

As I have mentioned previously, because of the military, we are likely one of the least socially distanced areas in the entire country, yet we have about 350 confirmed cases and like 1 death in the entire Southside of Hampton Roads (Based on the Johns Hopkins Map). It really looks like the models completely missed the mark on suburban and rural areas.

The models that applied social distancing? You can't compare them to models that assumed no social distancing.

(04-08-2020 12:45 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(04-08-2020 12:35 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(04-08-2020 12:33 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:  

(04-08-2020 12:30 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(04-08-2020 12:19 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:  Screw it. Let’s keep the shutdown indefinitely. I don’t want to see anyone get sick, ever.

But, you don't mind perfectly healthy people dying in a matter of 2 weeks?

We have to take risks every day. The risk of a perfectly healthy person getting infected and then dying is one we have to be willing to take at some point. I mean, there are lots of ways a perfectly healthy person can die, and yet, until this one, we’ve never shut down our whole economy because of them.

We are talking about probabilities though. This would have shutdown our economy either way; if hundreds of thousands of people die off, how do you think people would react?

That's an aspect people seem to forget: This isn't a matter of an entire country raring to go back to their pre-COVID life immediately but are being held back by malevolent forces. Even if you issued an unqualified all-clear signal tonight, most businesses and consumers are either going to tread very slowly or continue shutdown protocol if they think there's a reasonable threat of increased spread. This isn't going to be an on/off switch, it's going to be a very slowly moving dimmer switch.

Thats a good point. And there will be some PTSD (people not wanting to go in large crowds).

I have a small business, we aren't going back into the office until June at the very earliest. (assuming that is when restrictions are removed). If they lifted it next week, we still would not go back into the office in April or May.