RE: If 2020 Has No NCAA Football Let's Declare All TV Contracts and GOR's Null & Void
I am not competing with the posts in this thread and what I'm about to propose won't be among the 5 to receive votes but, I don't think we will achieve balance economically whether the model is 3 conferences of 20-24, or 4 conferences of 16. So competitive balance with access seems to me to be the best we can hope t achieve and even that won't be perfect because of current conference requirements.
But in a 4 x 16 model I think it's tougher to achieve. Here's about the best speculation I can offer on competitive balance in a 4 conference model.
The ACC needs a large engaged market to make their network profitable. Texas will want to keep much of their business model intact. They could head to the PAC and take buddies, but how many? And whether the PAC winds up in the ESPN camp remains to be seen.
In 20210 a deal was floated that might have sent Virginia Tech and N.C. State (two duplicate market footprint schools which aren't the AAU flagships of their respective states) to the SEC.
If your goal is competitive balance and the SEC is currently the strongest then adding 20 million potential subscribers for the SECN is still viable. Virginia Tech and N.C. State add to the SEC's middle and not their top or their bottom. It's as close to a neutral expansion move as you can get.
So let's say that happens. The SEC is done.
The ACC (which is private heavy) accepts T.C.U. and Baylor along with Texas Tech and Texas. Texas now has an all Texas Quad (1/2 division) that guarantees 8 games in Texas on even years and 9 games in odd years counting the RRR remaining in DFW and being played as an OOC game.
The Big 10 in spite of being one of the top 2 economically still needs some football punch. Notre Dame provides that and gives them complete leverage for college football in Northern cities. Their price for landing almost a 1 billion dollar value in N.D. is that they agree to take Iowa State. The Big 10 is done.
The PAC needs markets and punch in both football and hoops. They take Oklahoma and Kansas and Oklahoma State and Kansas State travel with them. Their move is for content value multipliers.
That takes care of everyone but W.V.U.. Wake Forest takes the partial membership in the ACC getting a guarantee of 6 games a year with ACC foes and they remain full members for everything else. West Virginia moves into the ACC as a full member. This maximizes the ACC's value in the move as WVU adds competitive football up North in their conference and brings a more than respectable hoops program and solid baseball.
ACC:
Boston College, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
Duke, Louisville, North Carolina, Virginia
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami
Baylor, Texas, T.C.U., Texas Tech
*Wake Forest as a partial for football
That should yield in many years a football contenders list of West Virginia, Louisville, Clemson/FSU, and Texas. Those are all marketable products to a larger regional audience or a national one.
SEC:
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Missouri, Texas A&M
Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State
Kentucky, N.C. State, Tennessee, Virginia Tech
Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Vanderbilt
This grouping allows LSU/A&M, AL/AU, Tenn/VaTech, Fla/GA to emerge most years. All are ratings winners.
B1G:
Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Rutgers
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue
Illinois, Northwestern, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Iowa, Iowa State, Minnesota, Nebraska
This arrangement also works for ratings as most years you might expect ND/PSU, Mi/MSU, OSU/Wis, and Iowa/Neb to emerge.
PAC:
Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
California, Colorado, Stanford, Utah
Arizona, Arizona State, California Los Angeles, Southern Cal
This set up guarantees all PAC schools more games in California and allows Ore/UW, OU/OSU, Stan/UT, USC to emerge most years. That ties in all regions of their conference.
10 Conference games allows plenty of room for cross scheduling and 2 OOC games provides room for old rivals. Each conference moves to a Conference Semi-final and that expands the post season as all 4 champs play it off nationally. This keeps more fan bases engaged late into the season.
Now while that would work from a competitive balance perspective and would consider some monetary balancing (though not nearly enough) it could work. Everyone gets something and everyone settles on initial expectations a bit as well.
Now if the stress is on regional fit and academic considerations as well as network considerations we might wind up with something like this:
Union-Pacific:
Indiana, Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers
Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State
Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Utah, Wisconsin
California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington
New South:
Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, South Carolina
Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
All American:
Boston College, Louisville, Miami, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, T.C.U., Texas Tech
Arizona, Arizona State, Brigham Young, Oregon State, San Diego State, Washington State
Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, South Florida, Wake Forest
This last conference is important for these reasons:
1. It includes all remaining P5 schools preventing lawsuits since the income level would be geared to what the current Big 12 schools make. So nobody loses money by being in this conference and the ACC, PAC, and AAC schools make money to agree to be a part of it.
2. The champion is an automatic qualifier for the CFP which will consist of the 3 champs and 1 at large per year keeping more fan bases engaged deep into the season.
3. Each conference will have conference semis consisting of the 4 divisional champions so in any solid year a divisional champ gets a shot at playing their way in.
4. By taking 7 of the most profitable or well attended G5 schools you also reduce potential lawsuits here as well.
This isn't balanced economically, but it rewards to the two most secure conferences by associations and financially, but it is much more fair in terms of access and on field play. I think this is as good as it will get for fair access.
(This post was last modified: 04-07-2020 05:11 PM by JRsec.)
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If 2020 Has No NCAA Football Let's Declare All TV Contracts and GOR's Null & Void
