8) USF
9) UConn. 1) Houston

5) Wichita St
12) Tulane. 4) SMU



6) Memphis
11) ECU. 3) Tulsa

7) Temple
10) UCF. 2) Cincinnati

If SMU can hold onto a top 4 spot, they could be a potential high level bid stealer come March, with the tournament in their backyard. Hard to see Houston or Cincinnati not being in the top 3 barring a collapse from either team. Tulsa still has 4 tough road games so it will be interesting to see if they can stay in the top 4 (or move up with wins). Cincinnati benefits from not having to play at Tulsa or SMU as they own the tiebreaker with both and that cannot change (barring a three or four way tie).

Also an interesting note but outside of UConn in 2016, the one or two seed has won the tournament every year. And 2016 was a little weird because the best team in the league didn’t play in the tournament. The AAC has never had a bid stealer.

Big one tonight. SMU wins and they create some separation with Wichita and Memphis. Houston would also leave themselves vulnerable to falling out of the top spot even with a win over Cincinnati later (if UC would win every other game) as they still have tough road games @Memphis and @UConn.

Houston wins and it would be hard to see them falling out of the top spot unless they would lose to UC at home or lose a couple more down the stretch. SMU would fall into a jumbled mess with Memphis and Wichita in spots 4-6.

(02-15-2020 09:28 AM)BcatMatt13 Wrote:  8) USF
9) UConn. 1) Houston

5) Wichita St
12) Tulane. 4) SMU



6) Memphis
11) ECU. 3) Tulsa

7) Temple
10) UCF. 2) Cincinnati

If SMU can hold onto a top 4 spot, they could be a potential high level bid stealer come March, with the tournament in their backyard. Hard to see Houston or Cincinnati not being in the top 3 barring a collapse from either team. Tulsa still has 4 tough road games so it will be interesting to see if they can stay in the top 4 (or move up with wins). Cincinnati benefits from not having to play at Tulsa or SMU as they own the tiebreaker with both and that cannot change (barring a three or four way tie).

Also an interesting note but outside of UConn in 2016, the one or two seed has won the tournament every year. And 2016 was a little weird because the best team in the league didn’t play in the tournament. The AAC has never had a bid stealer.

I thought Uconn was a stealer when they made the 90 footer against Cincy in the tournament.

(02-15-2020 09:48 AM)rosewater Wrote:  

(02-15-2020 09:28 AM)BcatMatt13 Wrote:  8) USF
9) UConn. 1) Houston

5) Wichita St
12) Tulane. 4) SMU



6) Memphis
11) ECU. 3) Tulsa

7) Temple
10) UCF. 2) Cincinnati

If SMU can hold onto a top 4 spot, they could be a potential high level bid stealer come March, with the tournament in their backyard. Hard to see Houston or Cincinnati not being in the top 3 barring a collapse from either team. Tulsa still has 4 tough road games so it will be interesting to see if they can stay in the top 4 (or move up with wins). Cincinnati benefits from not having to play at Tulsa or SMU as they own the tiebreaker with both and that cannot change (barring a three or four way tie).

Also an interesting note but outside of UConn in 2016, the one or two seed has won the tournament every year. And 2016 was a little weird because the best team in the league didn’t play in the tournament. The AAC has never had a bid stealer.

I thought Uconn was a stealer when they made the 90 footer against Cincy in the tournament.

They ended up being a 9 seed so I’m not sure. That’s not really close to the bubble line, but maybe without the wins over UC, Temple, and Memphis they wouldn’t have gotten in, who knows?

(02-15-2020 09:52 AM)BcatMatt13 Wrote:  

(02-15-2020 09:48 AM)rosewater Wrote:  

(02-15-2020 09:28 AM)BcatMatt13 Wrote:  8) USF
9) UConn. 1) Houston

5) Wichita St
12) Tulane. 4) SMU



6) Memphis
11) ECU. 3) Tulsa

7) Temple
10) UCF. 2) Cincinnati

If SMU can hold onto a top 4 spot, they could be a potential high level bid stealer come March, with the tournament in their backyard. Hard to see Houston or Cincinnati not being in the top 3 barring a collapse from either team. Tulsa still has 4 tough road games so it will be interesting to see if they can stay in the top 4 (or move up with wins). Cincinnati benefits from not having to play at Tulsa or SMU as they own the tiebreaker with both and that cannot change (barring a three or four way tie).

Also an interesting note but outside of UConn in 2016, the one or two seed has won the tournament every year. And 2016 was a little weird because the best team in the league didn’t play in the tournament. The AAC has never had a bid stealer.

I thought Uconn was a stealer when they made the 90 footer against Cincy in the tournament.

They ended up being a 9 seed so I’m not sure. That’s not really close to the bubble line, but maybe without the wins over UC, Temple, and Memphis they wouldn’t have gotten in, who knows?

NIne seed and you gotta figure that they are in.

Neutral courts eliminate these wacky regular season, home underdog upsets.

It will be UC and Houston in the finals again.

SMU #3 vs Witchta St #4
For atten sake

(02-15-2020 10:49 AM)templefootballfan Wrote:  SMU #3 vs Witchta St #4
For atten sake

No thanks, let the conference SUFFER!

The last team I want to play in the first round is UCONN.

(02-15-2020 02:58 PM)panicstricken Wrote:  The last team I want to play in the first round is UCONN.

They’ve never won in Dallas.... let’s see how it goes in Fort Worth. I look to the SMU at Tulsa game as a major one. It might actually be a tie-breaker for a bye.

(02-15-2020 09:28 AM)BcatMatt13 Wrote:  8) USF
9) UConn. 1) Houston

5) Wichita St
12) Tulane. 4) SMU



6) Memphis
11) ECU. 3) Tulsa

7) Temple
10) UCF. 2) Cincinnati

If SMU can hold onto a top 4 spot, they could be a potential high level bid stealer come March, with the tournament in their backyard. Hard to see Houston or Cincinnati not being in the top 3 barring a collapse from either team. Tulsa still has 4 tough road games so it will be interesting to see if they can stay in the top 4 (or move up with wins). Cincinnati benefits from not having to play at Tulsa or SMU as they own the tiebreaker with both and that cannot change (barring a three or four way tie).

Also an interesting note but outside of UConn in 2016, the one or two seed has won the tournament every year. And 2016 was a little weird because the best team in the league didn’t play in the tournament. The AAC has never had a bid stealer.

With those matchups, Houston and SMU would seem likely to advance to the AAC Final Four, unless Wichita State plays inspired basketball - - which they might need to do in order to secure an at-large bid. Wichita vs. SMU could be a barn-burner in SMU's back yard.

Whether Tulsa can beat Memphis will depend on whether the atmosphere is more like a home or away game for the Golden Hurricane. If the game is well attended, with most rooting for Tulsa, it could be a whale of a ball game, but if Memphis brings a large enough contingent, they may have the advantage. Could go either way.

Cincy has been playing good basketball recently, and would be favored to advance. Since they already have 8 losses, they might need to win at least one AAC tournament game in order to advance, unless they end the regular season with a top 40-45 NET ranking. If they're a consensus NCAA team (e.g., if they win the regular season AAC championship), and don't have to advance in Dallas, they could be knocked off. Temple would seem to be an unlikely dark horse, but their winning performances vs. SMU and @ Tulane have suggested that they may have the potential to be competitive in the Dallas tournament.

Semi-finals:

Houston vs. SMU could go either way. Houston seems likely to be assured of a NCAA bid, while SMU's only shot at the NCAA would be to defeat the Cougars. In a rivalry game in Dallas, SMU might have a good chance to emerge as the dark horse.

Memphis/Tulsa vs. Cincy would be an interesting matchup. Cincy has played quite well on the road in conference action, and they blew Tulsa away in Cincinnati. The Bearcats split their games with Memphis, with similar scoring margins, and those two teams seem evenly matched. The winner may be the team that most needs a victory to make the NCAA field.

Finals:

Houston vs. Cincy might be the odds-on favorites to compete for a championship. Cincy might have the edge if they need the win to make the NCAA. Otherwise, Houston might prevail, especially if the largely Texan crowd provides them with a home court advantage.

SMU vs. Cincy would be an interesting game on SMU's turf. SMU might need the win to advance, while Cincy might be a shoo-in with 2 AAC tournament wins. If SMU needs the win more, they might be able to play well enough to win the championship game.

Houston or SMU vs. Tulsa could go either way. However, SMU would probably be favored over Tulsa, with home crowd and need to win to make the NCAA. Tulsa might be able to knock off Houston, if that's their only pathway to the NCAA.

Houston vs. Memphis: Memphis might be most likely to win, especially if the have a large contingent of fans for the game, given that they may need the win in order to make the NCAA field, or to get a fairly good seeding.

SMU vs. Memphis: SMU might have the advantage, unless Memphis needs to win the game as much as SMU does, in order to make their way into the NCAA. It would probably be a heck of a game.

(02-15-2020 10:29 AM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  Neutral courts eliminate these wacky regular season, home underdog upsets.

It will be UC and Houston in the finals again.

Perhaps, but there may be more parity in the conference this season than in any prior AAC season.

SMU and Tulsa are potential dark horses, and they might play before sympathetic crowds if they play against teams from east of the Mississippi.

Wichita is only a 5 hour drive away, and the Shockers will probably have quite a large contingent of fans in attendance. They won't be an easy out, given that they'll be playing to guarantee a NCAA bid and for an improved seeding in the NCAA.

Memphis, now 17-7, may be fighting for a chance to make the NCAA, and if not, they may have to win at least two AAC tournament games to get better than an 8 or 10 NCAA seed.

These matchups may be just as likely as Houston vs. Cincy:

SMU (or Wichita St.) vs. Memphis

SMU (or Wichita St.) vs. Cincy

Houston (or Wichita St.) vs. Memphis

NOTES:

With their 56-48 win @ USF today, Tulsa (9-3) is now tied with Cincy for second place in the conference, half a game behind Houston (10-3), one game ahead of SMU, and three games ahead of Wichita State and Memphis. The Golden Hurricane is likely to finish the regular season with 20+ wins.

Houston (10-3, 20-6) just lost in OT @ SMU (8-4, 18-6), 72-73.

SMU is looking more and more like a potential NCAA team, at this point.

However, 4 of their last 6 games will be on the road (@ Tulane, @ Tulsa, @ UCF, @ USF, and their two home games will be vs. Memphis and Wichita State, which are both going to be battling for a NCAA bid/seed.

Given their impressive defeat of the Cougars today, the Mustangs seem likely to win 21 or 22 regular season games, but with their tough remaining schedule, they may need to win at least 2 AAC games in order to make the NCAA field. If so, the Mustangs may be considered the classic dark "horse," if there ever was one.

(02-15-2020 08:36 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  NOTE: Houston (20-6) just lost in OT @ SMU (18-6), 72-73.

SMU is looking more and more like a potential NIT team.

(02-15-2020 08:38 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  SMU is looking more and more like a potential NIT team.

At 18-6 (8-4), they may be a lock for the NIT. All they need to do to end up with a 21-9 record is to win 3 of the next 6 games (e.g., @UCF, @USF, @Tulane, with a possible home win vs. Memphis or Wichita St.).

I see SMU as being likely to win at least one AAC tournament game before a friendly crowd, especially if Houston is a lock for the NCAA at that point.

The Mustangs will have a lot of motivation to win, and seem likely to win no fewer than 20 - and possibly as many as 23 or 24 - games by the end of the AAC tournament.

SMU will probably be considered a NCAA bubble team after beating Houston, and if they end up in the NIT with 22 or 23 wins, they may be able to earn a 2 or 3 seed - - and a couple of home games - - in that tournament.

8) Temple
9) UCF 1) Cincinnati

5) Wichita St.
12) Tulane 4) SMU



6) Memphis
11) ECU. 3) Tulsa

7) UConn
10) USF. 2) Houston

Updated with results from this weekend. Everyone has either 5 or 6 games left. The only seed that seems secure is Tulane at #12. Everything else is wide open.

(02-17-2020 01:27 PM)BcatMatt13 Wrote:  8) Temple
9) UCF 1) Cincinnati

5) Wichita St.
12) Tulane 4) SMU



6) Memphis
11) ECU. 3) Tulsa

7) UConn
10) USF. 2) Houston

Updated with results from this weekend. Everyone has either 5 or 6 games left. The only seed that seems secure is Tulane at #12. Everything else is wide open.

If Houston is the two, I want to stay away from Uconn and Memphis. This would be a great bracket for us.

I dont mind Memphis in the first round and I kindof like Houston/UCONN in the second.

(02-17-2020 02:19 PM)panicstricken Wrote:  I dont mind Memphis in the first round and I kindof like Houston/UCONN in the second.

I mean I agree with this. I wouldn't mind playing anyone outside of the flagship currently in a familiar place at #1. Common sense.

Remaining UCONN schedule: @Temple, USF, UCF, @ECU, Houston, @Tulane

Hurley gonna snatch that 4 seed just like HuskyU snatch that Pony wig.