(02-10-2020 02:28 PM)TheBasketBallOpinion Wrote:  

(02-09-2020 07:56 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  

(02-08-2020 08:31 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  Well this board died quick.

Not as fast as the number of AAC bids.

They legit have a chance of being a 1 bid league

Or could easily have 4+. They have 2 right now, and then Memphis and Cincy are 2 of the 1st 3 teams out..... Could easily see Houston, Wichita, Memphis, and Cincy all making it- and a bid thief yet.

(02-10-2020 02:37 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(02-10-2020 02:28 PM)TheBasketBallOpinion Wrote:  

(02-09-2020 07:56 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  

(02-08-2020 08:31 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  Well this board died quick.

Not as fast as the number of AAC bids.

They legit have a chance of being a 1 bid league

Or could easily have 4+. They have 2 right now, and then Memphis and Cincy are 2 of the 1st 3 teams out..... Could easily see Houston, Wichita, Memphis, and Cincy all making it- and a bid thief yet.

Houston still plays Memphis (twice) and Cincinnati.

Cincinnati still plays Memphis, Wichita State and Houston.

Wichita State still plays Cincinnati and Memphis.

Memphis still plays Cincinnati, Houston (twice) and Wichita State.

For every victory, there will be a loss. What would really hurt each of the teams if if they split against each other. UConn still plays Memphis and Houston, and can be a real wild card/spoiler going into the AAC Tournament.

Wichita is also one of the last 4 in at the moment. Houston, the only "lock" is currently projected to be a 9-seed. The fact that the AAC currently has only two projected bids, with its highest seed being a #9 is an alarming development (especially since the A10, MWC and WCC each have a team as a top-2 seed).

Lots of basketball left, but little room for error. The biggest thing hurting everyone there is the lack of top-25 NET opportunities each will have (29, 46, 50, 59) to make a big jump.

I can assure the handful of dedicated readers/posters of this BE board that Memphis will not be headed to the Big Dance barring a miracle.

Injuries, some occasional bad coaching, turnovers, the lack of Wiseman, illnesses and absurd expectations placed on one of the youngest rosters in the country ... all have taken their toll.

My hope is 22 wins and an NIT bid. And that would be a rather good season, all things considered.

AAC men's hoops have been a disappointment for me since the league started. And my teams (Memphis and Cincy) have not helped the cause.

Enough on the American. Just wanted to weigh in.

Congrats to our Marquette posters for an impressive win on Sunday.

Houston goes 2-1- split with Memphis, beats Cincy. Wins out otherwise. They are 25-6. Lock
Cincy loses to Houston, beats Memphis, loses to Wichita. Wins out otherwise. They are 20-10.
Wichita beats Cincy, loses to Memphis. Wins out otherwise. They are 24-7. Lock
Memphis splits with Houston, loses to Cincy, beats Wichita. Wins out otherwise. They are 23-8

Houston and Wichita would easily be in. Memphis probably would be in as well. And Cincy wouldn't have to do much in the AAC Tourney.

If those 4 teams don't lose to anyone else- really close to impossible to have it be a 1 bid league.

And UConn really only could spoil Memphis. Yeah they get Houston- but Houston has a lot of wiggle room right now.

(02-10-2020 03:28 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Houston goes 2-1- split with Memphis, beats Cincy. Wins out otherwise. They are 25-6. Lock
Cincy loses to Houston, beats Memphis, loses to Wichita. Wins out otherwise. They are 20-10.
Wichita beats Cincy, loses to Memphis. Wins out otherwise. They are 24-7. Lock
Memphis splits with Houston, loses to Cincy, beats Wichita. Wins out otherwise. They are 23-8

Houston and Wichita would easily be in. Memphis probably would be in as well. And Cincy wouldn't have to do much in the AAC Tourney.

If those 4 teams don't lose to anyone else- really close to impossible to have it be a 1 bid league.

And UConn really only could spoil Memphis. Yeah they get Houston- but Houston has a lot of wiggle room right now.

I'm not saying its impossible, but you literally just laid out the perfect ideal and optimal scenario for all of the teams. I think the assumption that each of these teams wins every single remaining game that they should is also a stretch. It is very likely that at least one of these teams loses a game to a lower ranked team that they shouldn't.

For example, you are predicting a Wichita State team that is 2-5 in its last seven games to go 7-1 (including an upset @ Cincinnati). You also have Memphis, who is 5-4 in last nine AAC games, to finish 6-2.

Again, not impossible - but the odds of such a ideal/optimal result is very unlikely. I still predict three teams from the AAC in (Houston/Wichita/Cincinnati).

I think they end up with 3 as well.

The more interesting question is if Georgetown can pull off an absurd miracle and make the tournament?

would be absolutely banana land for them to make it after all of the issues surrounding the team this year.

(02-10-2020 03:49 PM)TheBasketBallOpinion Wrote:  I think they end up with 3 as well.

The more interesting question is if Georgetown can pull off an absurd miracle and make the tournament?

would be absolutely banana land for them to make it after all of the issues surrounding the team this year.

Ewing would win BE COY, IMO. That'd be incredible.

If Georgetown makes the Big Dance, I would vote for Big Pat as national coach of the year. And I'm very serious about that.

Georgetown would have 6 Q1 wins with that scenario as long as....
#64 DePaul
#73 SMU
#75 Oklahoma St

all remained Q1. With all 3 of those, that would remain touch and go. And frankly also #24 Creighton remain in the top 30....

Would be 1-4 in road games in conference along with 1-3 if they beat Nova at home or 2-2 if they get 1 of the tougher games on the road. If it's 1-3, they'd be 5-8 away from home.

If Georgetown is 18-13 with 5-8 away from home, and say 4 Q1 wins- that's going to be dicey.

(02-10-2020 04:38 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Georgetown would have 6 Q1 wins with that scenario as long as....
#64 DePaul
#73 SMU
#75 Oklahoma St

all remained Q1. With all 3 of those, that would remain touch and go. And frankly also #24 Creighton remain in the top 30....

Would be 1-4 in road games in conference along with 1-3 if they beat Nova at home or 2-2 if they get 1 of the tougher games on the road. If it's 1-3, they'd be 5-8 away from home.

If Georgetown is 18-13 with 5-8 away from home, and say 4 Q1 wins- that's going to be dicey.

Agree that it would be dicey for the Hoyas. But, how Ewing has kept this team focused and scrapping ... impressive. I've got a soft spot in my heart for GU so I'm, admittedly, probably exaggerating the situation. But it's quite noteworthy that Georgetown has remained competitive with the horrendous personnel situation of this season.

18 wins and this team would be deserving of a NCAA tourney invite (though it's unlikely that would happen with only 18 wins).

As we start to get later in the process interesting to see projected paths-

today with Lunardi-
Butler 4 S Cle vs SF Austin, Mich St
Xavier 11 S Tampa vs Arizona, Auburn
Marquette 5 E Sacramento vs Furman, Penn St
Seton Hall 3 E Albany vs Colgate, Iowa/Florida
Villanova 4 MW Albany vs Winthrop, Oregon
Creighton 6 W Cleveland vs Virginia, West Virginia

Creighton would have about the most challenging path to prepare for..... Amazing that Michigan St is only a 5 seed now.

Still don't think we see Seton Hall in the East unless they're a 1 seed. They aren't putting a team at a road disadvantage like that. The committee showed that this weekened with Butler- they moved them out of the MW even though it was open.

(02-10-2020 04:38 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Georgetown would have 6 Q1 wins with that scenario as long as....
#64 DePaul
#73 SMU
#75 Oklahoma St

all remained Q1. With all 3 of those, that would remain touch and go. And frankly also #24 Creighton remain in the top 30....

Would be 1-4 in road games in conference along with 1-3 if they beat Nova at home or 2-2 if they get 1 of the tougher games on the road. If it's 1-3, they'd be 5-8 away from home.

If Georgetown is 18-13 with 5-8 away from home, and say 4 Q1 wins- that's going to be dicey.

You're playing too many what if's again. You didn't bring up whether St. Johns could move back to Q1... so that would help.

18 wins would be dicey if 2 of their last 4 wins are home against X and Prov... however, if those 4 wins were against the top teams it could swing things again (although give them Q2 losses).

Their resume doesn't have any bad losses, their SOS is quite good, and they already have 3 (almost 4 w/ St. Johns) Q1 wins. 18 as bubbly as you can get, so a win in the BE tourney would help as well. At least destiny is in their hands now and they're still not out of contention. For a team in their position, that's as good as you can wish for.

(02-11-2020 12:38 PM)MU in MKE Wrote:  

(02-10-2020 04:38 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Georgetown would have 6 Q1 wins with that scenario as long as....
#64 DePaul
#73 SMU
#75 Oklahoma St

all remained Q1. With all 3 of those, that would remain touch and go. And frankly also #24 Creighton remain in the top 30....

Would be 1-4 in road games in conference along with 1-3 if they beat Nova at home or 2-2 if they get 1 of the tougher games on the road. If it's 1-3, they'd be 5-8 away from home.

If Georgetown is 18-13 with 5-8 away from home, and say 4 Q1 wins- that's going to be dicey.

You're playing too many what if's again. You didn't bring up whether St. Johns could move back to Q1... so that would help.

18 wins would be dicey if 2 of their last 4 wins are home against X and Prov... however, if those 4 wins were against the top teams it could swing things again (although give them Q2 losses).

Their resume doesn't have any bad losses, their SOS is quite good, and they already have 3 (almost 4 w/ St. Johns) Q1 wins. 18 as bubbly as you can get, so a win in the BE tourney would help as well. At least destiny is in their hands now and they're still not out of contention. For a team in their position, that's as good as you can wish for.

That's fair. Georgetown would have 5 wins that are really close to Q1 status(along with 2 that would be definite Q1 wins). Right now 4/5 of those close wins would be Q1. How many of those 5 would be Q1 would probably determine just how much Georgetown would need in the BET. Might be in a situation where they have to win @ St John's to get in.

Just saw Mustapha Heron likely done for the season. Would make it tough to see St John's be able to remain in the top 75. Especially given the tough schedule they have left.

(02-11-2020 02:21 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Just saw Mustapha Heron likely done for the season. Would make it tough to see St John's be able to remain in the top 75. Especially given the tough schedule they have left.

Anderson could very well be looking at his first losing season as a HC. He will get them righted in time.

(02-11-2020 03:34 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  

(02-11-2020 02:21 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Just saw Mustapha Heron likely done for the season. Would make it tough to see St John's be able to remain in the top 75. Especially given the tough schedule they have left.

Anderson could very well be looking at his first losing season as a HC. He will get them righted in time.

he almost certainly is. needs 3 more wins- The 3 road games left are almost no chance- @ Seton Hall, Nova, and Butler. Would then have to go 3-1 at home- vs Providence, Xavier, Creighton, and Marquette.

Right now, St John's is a team that any wins they get hurt the league.

The interesting thing IMO with St John's is what they need to do to finish top 75. Would beating Providence and Xavier be enough?

(02-11-2020 04:00 PM)stever20 Wrote:  The interesting thing IMO with St John's is what they need to do to finish top 75. Would beating Providence and Xavier be enough?

One strong game with a big margin of victory (presumably good O/D ef) and no big margin losses could lock them into top 75.

Even if SJU finishes "outside the top 75," Anderson cannot be fully blamed. His first year. A nine-man rotation with only two seniors. Some tough close losses (though some wide-margin defeats, too).

Not a big surprise that St. John's has struggled.

I think folks better watch out with Xavier.. They are now 16-9. Have 2 easier games- @ St John's and home with DePaul. But then Nova, @ Georgetown, @ Providence, and Butler.

If they get the 2 easier games and lose the 4 tougher games they're 18-13. But with only the win @ Seton Hall as a guaranteed Q1 win. Really only @ DePaul, @ St John's would be only 2 that would be possible Q1's(right now split). I think X would need at least 1 win in the BET there to make the dance.