(02-03-2020 11:01 AM)MU in MKE Wrote:  

(02-03-2020 09:17 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  This is getting VERY interesting. I don't foresee seven but it could happen. Six remains the goal.

Enjoy your day, lads.

The way things are shaping up, if Xavier gets 5 wins out of their reaming SJ, DU, and Prov and Georgetown wins their reaminging against DePaul, Xavier, and Prov and one other... they could both make it without hurting anyone else much.

So you are saying X wins vs DePaul(x2), Providence(x2), and St John's. That would get them to 18-13. They would be hoping DePaul and Providence remain Q1- otherwise they'd have exactly 2 Q1 wins- @ TCU and @ Seton Hall.
Georgetown wins vs DePaul(x2), Providence, and 1 other. that gets them to 17-14. Georgetown would be hoping St John's sneaks back into Q1. SMU remains Q1. Only 1 other Q1 win.
(you had listed them getting wins vs each other- only 1 game left vs each other).

I think both looking at this would need at least 1 other win, and for Georgetown realistically 2 other wins.

DePaul and Providence could murder both of them.

(02-03-2020 11:28 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(02-03-2020 11:01 AM)MU in MKE Wrote:  

(02-03-2020 09:17 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  This is getting VERY interesting. I don't foresee seven but it could happen. Six remains the goal.

Enjoy your day, lads.

The way things are shaping up, if Xavier gets 5 wins out of their reaming SJ, DU, and Prov and Georgetown wins their reaminging against DePaul, Xavier, and Prov and one other... they could both make it without hurting anyone else much.

So you are saying X wins vs DePaul(x2), Providence(x2), and St John's. That would get them to 18-13. They would be hoping DePaul and Providence remain Q1- otherwise they'd have exactly 2 Q1 wins- @ TCU and @ Seton Hall.
Georgetown wins vs DePaul(x2), Providence, and 1 other. that gets them to 17-14. Georgetown would be hoping St John's sneaks back into Q1. SMU remains Q1. Only 1 other Q1 win.
(you had listed them getting wins vs each other- only 1 game left vs each other).

I think both looking at this would need at least 1 other win, and for Georgetown realistically 2 other wins.

DePaul and Providence could murder both of them.

DePaul and Prov could definitely destroy either one of them, but in my what if scenario they don't. :)


Your # for X is off though. It would put them at 19-13. They're sitting on a SOS of 26 right now too. They'd be (presumably, depending on how prov/Depaul do) sitting on 4 Q1 wins and have a 6-1 record in Q2 with no losses in Q3/Q4. Their resume is very clean right now and with strength of BE this year, I think that gets it done.


For Georgetown, I think with SOS of a super hard 14th in the country, they could get in with 18 wins (not counting BE tourney play) if they win their remaining Q2 games, @DePaul, and one other win (since that one other win would be a Q1a, since all 5 remaining games beyond those are Q1a. (again, assuming all NET rankings stay roughly the same). They'd have 4 Q1 wins, a 7-1 Q2 record, no Q3/Q4 loses. Plus their non-con SOS is only 58 and we know the selection committee rewards strong non-con schedules. Plus if St. Johns or Oklahoma St. moves back to top 75 Net, they'd have 5 or 6 Q1 wins.


On the flip side... Surprisingly, Depaul is not totally out of it. If you forget everything I said about Xavier and Georgetown, and Xavier goes off and wins any 5 of their last 9 games, I actually think they have a shot at the bubble with 17 wins. 6 makes it safe. I know that's a bold statement, but I stand behind it.

X has only 31 games so can't be 32 games. 5 wins would get them to 19-12, so we're both wrong. They get 5 more they are safe....

Georgetown I see what you're saying, but what would the best wins be? @ SMU? Creighton for sure..... They would need the other wins to be good ones- otherwise not sure Creighton gets it done by itself.

One thing to remember for DePaul. 1 of their wins is a D2 win, so doesn't count. So they are right now only 12-9. If they go 5-4 rest of the way that's only 17-13. With a poor OOC SOS(242 right now). With 2 Q3 losses right now. I don't think that gets them in at all... Really not even all that close to the bubble.

(02-03-2020 04:23 PM)stever20 Wrote:  X has only 31 games so can't be 32 games. 5 wins would get them to 19-12, so we're both wrong. They get 5 more they are safe....

Georgetown I see what you're saying, but what would the best wins be? @ SMU? Creighton for sure..... They would need the other wins to be good ones- otherwise not sure Creighton gets it done by itself.

One thing to remember for DePaul. 1 of their wins is a D2 win, so doesn't count. So they are right now only 12-9. If they go 5-4 rest of the way that's only 17-13. With a poor OOC SOS(242 right now). With 2 Q3 losses right now. I don't think that gets them in at all... Really not even all that close to the bubble.

Yep, I'm calling DePaul to the bubble with 17 wins. You heard it right! :)

The thing is, the bubble right now is extremely weak. I was reviewing a post from cracked sidewalks blog (an MU fan blog). They put MU and the bottom 5 BE teams and compare resume to all teams just above and below the bubble. See how comparable our "bottom" teams are to these other bubble teams? As they say in their blog, these teams would be tournament caliber teams if they played in any other conference.

Check it out here. (warning, there is an AAC comparison on there where they point out that the bottom 4 BE teams each by themselves have more Q1 wins than the top 5 AAC teams combined, but just push past that part)
http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2020/02/...rgets.html

(02-03-2020 04:58 PM)MU in MKE Wrote:  

(02-03-2020 04:23 PM)stever20 Wrote:  X has only 31 games so can't be 32 games. 5 wins would get them to 19-12, so we're both wrong. They get 5 more they are safe....

Georgetown I see what you're saying, but what would the best wins be? @ SMU? Creighton for sure..... They would need the other wins to be good ones- otherwise not sure Creighton gets it done by itself.

One thing to remember for DePaul. 1 of their wins is a D2 win, so doesn't count. So they are right now only 12-9. If they go 5-4 rest of the way that's only 17-13. With a poor OOC SOS(242 right now). With 2 Q3 losses right now. I don't think that gets them in at all... Really not even all that close to the bubble.

Yep, I'm calling DePaul to the bubble with 17 wins. You heard it right! :)

The thing is, the bubble right now is extremely weak. I was reviewing a post from cracked sidewalks blog (an MU fan blog). They put MU and the bottom 5 BE teams and compare resume to all teams just above and below the bubble. See how comparable our "bottom" teams are to these other bubble teams? As they say in their blog, these teams would be tournament caliber teams if they played in any other conference.

Check it out here. (warning, there is an AAC comparison on there where they point out that the bottom 4 BE teams each by themselves have more Q1 wins than the top 5 AAC teams combined, but just push past that part)
http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2020/02/...rgets.html

That DePaul is simply on the bubble at this point in a season is VERY positive. Progress being made.

(02-03-2020 04:58 PM)MU in MKE Wrote:  

(02-03-2020 04:23 PM)stever20 Wrote:  X has only 31 games so can't be 32 games. 5 wins would get them to 19-12, so we're both wrong. They get 5 more they are safe....

Georgetown I see what you're saying, but what would the best wins be? @ SMU? Creighton for sure..... They would need the other wins to be good ones- otherwise not sure Creighton gets it done by itself.

One thing to remember for DePaul. 1 of their wins is a D2 win, so doesn't count. So they are right now only 12-9. If they go 5-4 rest of the way that's only 17-13. With a poor OOC SOS(242 right now). With 2 Q3 losses right now. I don't think that gets them in at all... Really not even all that close to the bubble.

Yep, I'm calling DePaul to the bubble with 17 wins. You heard it right! :)

The thing is, the bubble right now is extremely weak. I was reviewing a post from cracked sidewalks blog (an MU fan blog). They put MU and the bottom 5 BE teams and compare resume to all teams just above and below the bubble. See how comparable our "bottom" teams are to these other bubble teams? As they say in their blog, these teams would be tournament caliber teams if they played in any other conference.

Check it out here. (warning, there is an AAC comparison on there where they point out that the bottom 4 BE teams each by themselves have more Q1 wins than the top 5 AAC teams combined, but just push past that part)
http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2020/02/...rgets.html

The fact is though, you can't just move these teams to other conferences....

There would be absolutely no precident for DePaul making the tourney. No team has been more than 4 games sub .500 in conference play and ever made the tourney. DePaul would be 6-12. Sorry but no chance in hell. Their OOC resume isn't good enough to make up for that. #255 SOS. Hell, even the piece you linked said they need 6 more wins to get to 18.

I think Butler would get really nervous if they won only 1 more time pre tournament. Same thing they'd be 6-12 in conference play with the #174 OOC SOS. 18-14.

(02-04-2020 08:46 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(02-03-2020 04:58 PM)MU in MKE Wrote:  

(02-03-2020 04:23 PM)stever20 Wrote:  X has only 31 games so can't be 32 games. 5 wins would get them to 19-12, so we're both wrong. They get 5 more they are safe....

Georgetown I see what you're saying, but what would the best wins be? @ SMU? Creighton for sure..... They would need the other wins to be good ones- otherwise not sure Creighton gets it done by itself.

One thing to remember for DePaul. 1 of their wins is a D2 win, so doesn't count. So they are right now only 12-9. If they go 5-4 rest of the way that's only 17-13. With a poor OOC SOS(242 right now). With 2 Q3 losses right now. I don't think that gets them in at all... Really not even all that close to the bubble.

Yep, I'm calling DePaul to the bubble with 17 wins. You heard it right! :)

The thing is, the bubble right now is extremely weak. I was reviewing a post from cracked sidewalks blog (an MU fan blog). They put MU and the bottom 5 BE teams and compare resume to all teams just above and below the bubble. See how comparable our "bottom" teams are to these other bubble teams? As they say in their blog, these teams would be tournament caliber teams if they played in any other conference.

Check it out here. (warning, there is an AAC comparison on there where they point out that the bottom 4 BE teams each by themselves have more Q1 wins than the top 5 AAC teams combined, but just push past that part)
http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2020/02/...rgets.html

The fact is though, you can't just move these teams to other conferences....

There would be absolutely no precident for DePaul making the tourney. No team has been more than 4 games sub .500 in conference play and ever made the tourney. DePaul would be 6-12. Sorry but no chance in hell. Their OOC resume isn't good enough to make up for that. #255 SOS. Hell, even the piece you linked said they need 6 more wins to get to 18.

I think Butler would get really nervous if they won only 1 more time pre tournament. Same thing they'd be 6-12 in conference play with the #174 OOC SOS. 18-14.

I agree, it really probably would never happen. Like I said, if it all goes perfectly, it would just be looking at the bubble and you'd need a lot of teams to do horribly on the bubble. I said it was bold. lol How about we throw them a BE tourney game? :) I'm pretty sure there's been quite a few teams who have made it into the tournament with 14 losses (I'm saying depaul also gets a loss in BE Tourney to make it 14 total), so it's not impossible.


This is the classic "Soooo, you're saying there's a chance!"

(02-04-2020 10:20 AM)MU in MKE Wrote:  

(02-04-2020 08:46 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(02-03-2020 04:58 PM)MU in MKE Wrote:  

(02-03-2020 04:23 PM)stever20 Wrote:  X has only 31 games so can't be 32 games. 5 wins would get them to 19-12, so we're both wrong. They get 5 more they are safe....

Georgetown I see what you're saying, but what would the best wins be? @ SMU? Creighton for sure..... They would need the other wins to be good ones- otherwise not sure Creighton gets it done by itself.

One thing to remember for DePaul. 1 of their wins is a D2 win, so doesn't count. So they are right now only 12-9. If they go 5-4 rest of the way that's only 17-13. With a poor OOC SOS(242 right now). With 2 Q3 losses right now. I don't think that gets them in at all... Really not even all that close to the bubble.

Yep, I'm calling DePaul to the bubble with 17 wins. You heard it right! :)

The thing is, the bubble right now is extremely weak. I was reviewing a post from cracked sidewalks blog (an MU fan blog). They put MU and the bottom 5 BE teams and compare resume to all teams just above and below the bubble. See how comparable our "bottom" teams are to these other bubble teams? As they say in their blog, these teams would be tournament caliber teams if they played in any other conference.

Check it out here. (warning, there is an AAC comparison on there where they point out that the bottom 4 BE teams each by themselves have more Q1 wins than the top 5 AAC teams combined, but just push past that part)
http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2020/02/...rgets.html

The fact is though, you can't just move these teams to other conferences....

There would be absolutely no precident for DePaul making the tourney. No team has been more than 4 games sub .500 in conference play and ever made the tourney. DePaul would be 6-12. Sorry but no chance in hell. Their OOC resume isn't good enough to make up for that. #255 SOS. Hell, even the piece you linked said they need 6 more wins to get to 18.

I think Butler would get really nervous if they won only 1 more time pre tournament. Same thing they'd be 6-12 in conference play with the #174 OOC SOS. 18-14.

I agree, it really probably would never happen. Like I said, if it all goes perfectly, it would just be looking at the bubble and you'd need a lot of teams to do horribly on the bubble. I said it was bold. lol How about we throw them a BE tourney game? :) I'm pretty sure there's been quite a few teams who have made it into the tournament with 14 losses (I'm saying depaul also gets a loss in BE Tourney to make it 14 total), so it's not impossible.


This is the classic "Soooo, you're saying there's a chance!"

I think it might depend on if it's a 7/10 game or if it's a QF game. Bit of a difference...

Realisticaly the chance of DePaul getting close enough to make this matter is maybe 2%. They probably don't even make the NIT.

The bubble is so weak this year, especially compared to last year. Look at St. John's (21-12, 8-10) and Arizona State (22-10, 12-6) last year, as the two last team's in. They would absolutely be a lock to be in the tournament this year, with how the bubble is shaking out.

(02-05-2020 10:11 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  The bubble is so weak this year, especially compared to last year. Look at St. John's (21-12, 8-10) and Arizona State (22-10, 12-6) last year, as the two last team's in. They would absolutely be a lock to be in the tournament this year, with how the bubble is shaking out.

we say that every year though don't we?

We still have a long ways to go this year. Need to see where the final top 30/50/75 is for determining Q1 wins. Same thing with Q2-75/100/135.

tomorrow will be really interesting IMO. Sweet 16 reveal before the action tomorrow....

will be really interesting to see Seton Hall as a top 4 seed. Does the committee place them in NYC or are they moved out- same concept they used with Villanova a few years ago... Like I see Lunardi today has Duke as 2 seed in NYC and Seton Hall as 3. I just don't see the committee doing that to Duke. Or any 2 seed for that matter.

So the sweet 16 reveal- Seton Hall 11, Villanova 12, and Butler 15.

Butler had Indianapolis available- but the committee shifted them to NYC. They aren't putting a 1 seed at such a road disadvantage. Think for Butler for Indianapolis or Seton Hall for MSG- they have to be 1 seeds or they get shipped out.

Well this board died quick.

A few thoughts:

* Did anybody see the GU vs. DU game? I did not. It's hard to fathom how the Hoyas won without MM. Ewing played only seven players and Muresan played only two minutes (so, essentially, only six players for GU).

* Xavier with a much-needed win.

* Who is the leading candidate for league COY?

* Big game today with Butler at MU.

DePaul has regressed badly. Willard for COY. Go Marquette!

If Providence finishes say 11-7, would Cooley get some consideration for COY?

(02-09-2020 01:23 PM)stever20 Wrote:  If Providence finishes say 11-7, would Cooley get some consideration for COY?

Meh. The Thanksgiving stretch was pretty bad. I'd give more leash to Ewing IMO.

A few thoughts:

* Strong win for Marquette today. A statement victory.

* As to GW11's comment "DePaul has regressed badly." I would actually say "has regressed badly times two." Very disappointing. The Demons looked so good the first third of the season. And now this ... just baffling.

* Willard would seemingly be COY. A fair choice. But if Georgetown continues to overachieve with a depleted roster ... Big Pat deserves some votes.

(02-08-2020 08:31 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  Well this board died quick.

Not as fast as the number of AAC bids.

(02-09-2020 07:56 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  

(02-08-2020 08:31 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  Well this board died quick.

Not as fast as the number of AAC bids.

They legit have a chance of being a 1 bid league