Concerning Torvik...

"As with Kenpom, there is also a preseason component that is phased out once a team has played 13 adjusted games (since not all games count for 100% of a game, it typically sticks around for 15 or 16 games)."

http://adamcwisports.blogspot.com/p/ever...ounts.html

Unfortunately, the computer models presently are of limited indicator use. However, each passing week gives them more reliability. Until then, the best indicators are Vegas odds, stats, and the dreaded eye test, IMO.

(12-16-2019 01:24 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  Concerning Torvik...

"As with Kenpom, there is also a preseason component that is phased out once a team has played 13 adjusted games (since not all games count for 100% of a game, it typically sticks around for 15 or 16 games)."

http://adamcwisports.blogspot.com/p/ever...ounts.html

Unfortunately, the computer models presently are of limited indicator use. However, each passing week gives them more reliability. Until then, the best indicators are Vegas odds, stats, and the dreaded eye test, IMO.

Will completely take 70% ready KenPom over ANY eye test.

(12-16-2019 01:35 PM)Stickboy46 Wrote:  

(12-16-2019 01:24 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  Concerning Torvik...

"As with Kenpom, there is also a preseason component that is phased out once a team has played 13 adjusted games (since not all games count for 100% of a game, it typically sticks around for 15 or 16 games)."

http://adamcwisports.blogspot.com/p/ever...ounts.html

Unfortunately, the computer models presently are of limited indicator use. However, each passing week gives them more reliability. Until then, the best indicators are Vegas odds, stats, and the dreaded eye test, IMO.

Will completely take 70% ready KenPom over ANY eye test.

KP is about 56% ready. It is too high of an error rate for me. I trust my eyes on teams I watch often (e.g., WSU) more than KP today.

I like the metrics now for Memphis, but realize the need to evaluate with caution.

(12-16-2019 12:40 PM)Miggy Wrote:  

(12-16-2019 12:19 PM)ShockerFever Wrote:  

(12-16-2019 10:42 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  

(12-16-2019 10:27 AM)Stickboy46 Wrote:  

(12-16-2019 09:55 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  The Shockers would be favored if the game was held today, IMO.

KenPom currently has the game at WSU as 72-69 Wichita and the game at Memphis 73-68 Memphis.

Both games should be fun.

Makes sense, but KP at this point of the season is not a reliable indicator.

Then what is a reliable indicator?

Tennessee beat themselves in Memphis game by jacking up 3’s and missing them.

I like Bart Torvik rankings over Ken Pomeroy.

For what it’s worth, Bart Torvik has both Wichita State and Memphis winning when they play each other, on their respective home courts.

I believe that's how it will play out.

(12-16-2019 01:24 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  Concerning Torvik...

"As with Kenpom, there is also a preseason component that is phased out once a team has played 13 adjusted games (since not all games count for 100% of a game, it typically sticks around for 15 or 16 games)."

http://adamcwisports.blogspot.com/p/ever...ounts.html

Unfortunately, the computer models presently are of limited indicator use. However, each passing week gives them more reliability. Until then, the best indicators are Vegas odds, stats, and the dreaded eye test, IMO.

Vegas odds? Really?

So when do the "computer models" become justified for good use? 15 weeks? 18 weeks? The beginning of March? The end of April?

When?

(12-16-2019 12:31 PM)TigerBill Wrote:  

(12-16-2019 09:26 AM)stxrunner Wrote:  

(12-16-2019 09:06 AM)TripleA Wrote:  

(12-16-2019 07:47 AM)ShockerFever Wrote:  

(12-16-2019 07:42 AM)TripleA Wrote:  Memphis is the youngest team in the country. And playing without 2 starters.

Great. Would you rather have JUCO transfers out there instead?

Irrelevant question to the subject. Just countering comments about other AAC teams being young and having to learn to work together.

(12-16-2019 09:16 AM)TigerBill Wrote:  

(12-16-2019 07:47 AM)ShockerFever Wrote:  

(12-16-2019 07:42 AM)TripleA Wrote:  Memphis is the youngest team in the country. And playing without 2 starters.

Great. Would you rather have JUCO transfers out there instead?

Not relevant.

Pretty sure he's poking fun at the ECU guy talking up their roster before the season...

Pretty sure if he was he'd have been more clever about it.

Edit: maybe that's asking too much.

Thanks for giving me some credit finally.

(12-15-2019 07:54 PM)Penny1 Wrote:  

(12-15-2019 07:15 PM)OldFan Wrote:  

(12-15-2019 07:01 PM)Stickboy46 Wrote:  

(12-15-2019 06:45 PM)Penny1 Wrote:  Once Wiseman returns from his unfair punishment by the NCAA dictators on January 12, it will be very hard for anyone in this conference to beat us.

Wichita State will be the only with a true shot and that's because when we play them Wiseman won't be able to, and it's at WSU where they hardly ever lose.

But then again, we just snapped the nation's longest home winning streak at 31. So anything is possible.

After watching this teàm grow and mature so fast, I predict a 17-1 conference record for Memphis in the AAC and a Conference championship, a 30-1 overall record and a #1 seed.


There's just nobody in the AAC on the same talent level nor have the depth as this Memphis team does. Wiseman is a generational talent that college basketball rarely sees.

Math doesn't add up... Unless you find a way to get rid of the Oregon loss, finishing 17-1 in conference won't get you to 30-1....

I'd expect 2-3 losses in conference. There will be off days. But 2-3 losses could still mean winning the conference by multiple games. It is sad that Wiseman won't get to play in Wichita though. Wanted to watch that and didn't want any built in excuses if Wichita pulls that off

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My guess is that the Tigers will lose at Wichita and probably at Houston, with two other tough road games at Cincy and UConn (we don't play at Temple this year) resulting in a conference record of 16-2, 15-3, or 14-4, and overall 28-3, 27-4, or 26-5.

Have you been paying attention to this team and this conference? They aren't losing 2, 3 or especially 4 in this weak conference this year.

This ain't a Josh Pastner coached team nor is it typical freshmen. These are NBA prospects.

We were NOT supposed to be 9-1 at this point, according to the "experts", because of the Wiseman suspension plus the injury to Quinones. But we're developing, growing, jelling, getting better and winning tough hard fought games, especially in hostile environments. And all without our two best players.

We are overachieving at this point.

Penny is shutting the doubters up about his coaching ability. Some are taking notice and even mentioning him in the COY discussion.

Wait till Quinones and Wiseman return. Nobody will be able to handle us. Hell they can't beat us now!

Dude, you are the biggest homer I have ever seen. Could we only lose one game in conference? Sure. Could we lose 2 or 3 games in conference? Of course. You don’t see how we could shoot horribly and James gets in foul trouble? Basketball is way more unpredictable than what you are sounding like. Just complete homerism.

I think we have the most talent, but we will be getting everyone’s best each night and anything could happen. Good grief.

(12-16-2019 03:25 PM)tharmon15 Wrote:  

(12-15-2019 07:54 PM)Penny1 Wrote:  

(12-15-2019 07:15 PM)OldFan Wrote:  

(12-15-2019 07:01 PM)Stickboy46 Wrote:  

(12-15-2019 06:45 PM)Penny1 Wrote:  Once Wiseman returns from his unfair punishment by the NCAA dictators on January 12, it will be very hard for anyone in this conference to beat us.

Wichita State will be the only with a true shot and that's because when we play them Wiseman won't be able to, and it's at WSU where they hardly ever lose.

But then again, we just snapped the nation's longest home winning streak at 31. So anything is possible.

After watching this teàm grow and mature so fast, I predict a 17-1 conference record for Memphis in the AAC and a Conference championship, a 30-1 overall record and a #1 seed.


There's just nobody in the AAC on the same talent level nor have the depth as this Memphis team does. Wiseman is a generational talent that college basketball rarely sees.

Math doesn't add up... Unless you find a way to get rid of the Oregon loss, finishing 17-1 in conference won't get you to 30-1....

I'd expect 2-3 losses in conference. There will be off days. But 2-3 losses could still mean winning the conference by multiple games. It is sad that Wiseman won't get to play in Wichita though. Wanted to watch that and didn't want any built in excuses if Wichita pulls that off

Sent from my SM-N975U1 using Tapatalk

My guess is that the Tigers will lose at Wichita and probably at Houston, with two other tough road games at Cincy and UConn (we don't play at Temple this year) resulting in a conference record of 16-2, 15-3, or 14-4, and overall 28-3, 27-4, or 26-5.

Have you been paying attention to this team and this conference? They aren't losing 2, 3 or especially 4 in this weak conference this year.

This ain't a Josh Pastner coached team nor is it typical freshmen. These are NBA prospects.

We were NOT supposed to be 9-1 at this point, according to the "experts", because of the Wiseman suspension plus the injury to Quinones. But we're developing, growing, jelling, getting better and winning tough hard fought games, especially in hostile environments. And all without our two best players.

We are overachieving at this point.

Penny is shutting the doubters up about his coaching ability. Some are taking notice and even mentioning him in the COY discussion.

Wait till Quinones and Wiseman return. Nobody will be able to handle us. Hell they can't beat us now!

Dude, you are the biggest homer I have ever seen. Could we only lose one game in conference? Sure. Could we lose 2 or 3 games in conference? Of course. You don’t see how we could shoot horribly and James gets in foul trouble? Basketball is way more unpredictable than what you are sounding like. Just complete homerism.

I think we have the most talent, but we will be getting everyone’s best each night and anything could happen. Good grief.

Memphis looks like the favorite to me right now. And the top looks a little less deep than I thought going into the season. But this league still has 7-8 quality teams. Playing those teams 18 times, half on the road, and **** happens. 17-1 would be HELLA impressive. It's possible, I suppose. 16-2 is also really impressive, and is definitely not crazy-talk. That sort of record happens in good leagues on occasion.

It's possible things go poorly in a game like you describe. Sometimes weird fluky things happen the other way though, as well. Like what if Memphis goes to one of their toughest games (say @UH or @WSU) and randomly goes 15-25 from 3. It's why sports is so fun!

(12-16-2019 09:26 AM)stxrunner Wrote:  

(12-16-2019 09:06 AM)TripleA Wrote:  

(12-16-2019 07:47 AM)ShockerFever Wrote:  

(12-16-2019 07:42 AM)TripleA Wrote:  Memphis is the youngest team in the country. And playing without 2 starters.

Great. Would you rather have JUCO transfers out there instead?

Irrelevant question to the subject. Just countering comments about other AAC teams being young and having to learn to work together.

(12-16-2019 09:16 AM)TigerBill Wrote:  

(12-16-2019 07:47 AM)ShockerFever Wrote:  

(12-16-2019 07:42 AM)TripleA Wrote:  Memphis is the youngest team in the country. And playing without 2 starters.

Great. Would you rather have JUCO transfers out there instead?

Not relevant.

Pretty sure he's poking fun at the ECU guy talking up their roster before the season...

He replied directly to me. Why not to that guy?

Starting to look like a 2 bid league....need Temple, Houston, and Cindy to step it up.

(12-16-2019 03:35 PM)Wudizzle Wrote:  

(12-16-2019 03:25 PM)tharmon15 Wrote:  

(12-15-2019 07:54 PM)Penny1 Wrote:  

(12-15-2019 07:15 PM)OldFan Wrote:  

(12-15-2019 07:01 PM)Stickboy46 Wrote:  Math doesn't add up... Unless you find a way to get rid of the Oregon loss, finishing 17-1 in conference won't get you to 30-1....

I'd expect 2-3 losses in conference. There will be off days. But 2-3 losses could still mean winning the conference by multiple games. It is sad that Wiseman won't get to play in Wichita though. Wanted to watch that and didn't want any built in excuses if Wichita pulls that off

Sent from my SM-N975U1 using Tapatalk

My guess is that the Tigers will lose at Wichita and probably at Houston, with two other tough road games at Cincy and UConn (we don't play at Temple this year) resulting in a conference record of 16-2, 15-3, or 14-4, and overall 28-3, 27-4, or 26-5.

Have you been paying attention to this team and this conference? They aren't losing 2, 3 or especially 4 in this weak conference this year.

This ain't a Josh Pastner coached team nor is it typical freshmen. These are NBA prospects.

We were NOT supposed to be 9-1 at this point, according to the "experts", because of the Wiseman suspension plus the injury to Quinones. But we're developing, growing, jelling, getting better and winning tough hard fought games, especially in hostile environments. And all without our two best players.

We are overachieving at this point.

Penny is shutting the doubters up about his coaching ability. Some are taking notice and even mentioning him in the COY discussion.

Wait till Quinones and Wiseman return. Nobody will be able to handle us. Hell they can't beat us now!

Dude, you are the biggest homer I have ever seen. Could we only lose one game in conference? Sure. Could we lose 2 or 3 games in conference? Of course. You don’t see how we could shoot horribly and James gets in foul trouble? Basketball is way more unpredictable than what you are sounding like. Just complete homerism.

I think we have the most talent, but we will be getting everyone’s best each night and anything could happen. Good grief.

Memphis looks like the favorite to me right now. And the top looks a little less deep than I thought going into the season. But this league still has 7-8 quality teams. Playing those teams 18 times, half on the road, and **** happens. 17-1 would be HELLA impressive. It's possible, I suppose. 16-2 is also really impressive, and is definitely not crazy-talk. That sort of record happens in good leagues on occasion.

It's possible things go poorly in a game like you describe. Sometimes weird fluky things happen the other way though, as well. Like what if Memphis goes to one of their toughest games (say @UH or @WSU) and randomly goes 15-25 from 3. It's why sports is so fun!

Games against WSU, UH, UC, Temple will be dog fights. I think Memphis has the TALENT to go undefeated, but because this is basketball, that would be extraordinarily difficult. Like I said, I think we have the most talent in the conference with probably the best player, but I have seen the way we have shot this season and our athleticism has really bailed us out. I think we will certainly only get better, but if you have several games of shooting under 40% from the field, chances are you lose every once in a while.

You could have games where you shoot in the 30s and still win (UT) because the other team is either outmatched physically and athletically or they shoot worse. Cannot always bank on that happening, though. I think we have a lot to improve on, and I think we will. Cannot wait to see how this team looks in late February.

Conference play is always fun to watch; anything can happen!

(12-16-2019 03:44 PM)TigerSeth Wrote:  Starting to look like a 2 bid league....need Temple, Houston, and Cindy to step it up.

If Temple beats Miami tomorrow night by a decent margin, it should be on a path toward joining the nation’s elite teams. If they lose, it’s a big set-back.

(12-16-2019 08:11 PM)Miggy Wrote:  

(12-16-2019 03:44 PM)TigerSeth Wrote:  Starting to look like a 2 bid league....need Temple, Houston, and Cindy to step it up.

If Temple beats Miami tomorrow night by a decent margin, it should be on a path toward joining the nation’s elite teams. If they lose, it’s a big set-back.

“Nation’s elite teams?”

I am confused. Why is temple on the fringe or trajectory of being in the elite category and why is beating a not impressive Miami team get them to that elite status path?

I mean I guess it’s hard to distinguish elite right now, but, no offense, I don’t think temple is anywhere near there right now.
Forgive me if you’re kidding.

Tulane survives scare against a team it needed to beat (Alcorn). Has two good non conference games coming up in a tourney in 4 days. Top 100 Akron and a very highly rated undefeated Liberty. Good opportunities for the league and team

(12-16-2019 08:11 PM)Miggy Wrote:  

(12-16-2019 03:44 PM)TigerSeth Wrote:  Starting to look like a 2 bid league....need Temple, Houston, and Cindy to step it up.

If Temple beats Miami tomorrow night by a decent margin, it should be on a path toward joining the nation’s elite teams. If they lose, it’s a big set-back.

If by elite you mean a tourney level team then yes.... If you mean elite elite... Then no

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(12-16-2019 09:10 PM)tharmon15 Wrote:  

(12-16-2019 08:11 PM)Miggy Wrote:  

(12-16-2019 03:44 PM)TigerSeth Wrote:  Starting to look like a 2 bid league....need Temple, Houston, and Cindy to step it up.

If Temple beats Miami tomorrow night by a decent margin, it should be on a path toward joining the nation’s elite teams. If they lose, it’s a big set-back.

“Nation’s elite teams?”

I am confused. Why is temple on the fringe or trajectory of being in the elite category and why is beating a not impressive Miami team get them to that elite status path?

I mean I guess it’s hard to distinguish elite right now, but, no offense, I don’t think temple is anywhere near there right now.
Forgive me if you’re kidding.

Given that Temple’s opponents average but 60.1 points per game, one can safely say Temple has an elite defense that seems to be improving. One rating service has Temple within top 5 defenses in the country. Wichita State and Memphis have comparable defenses.

In Temple’s last game against St. Joe’s, Temple scored 108 points and shot as a team over 62.7 percent from the field, 53.3 on three’s, and won by 57 points. Al are a sign Temple’s offense is improving. Need to see a larger body of work, but do think Temple is on the way to possibly being one of three nation’s elite team. The Miami game may or may not indicate Temple is moving in that direction.

Temple had played a completely different style of basketball than they played in their two losses to Maryland and Missouri, and also different from the games they had won.

St. Joe’s had beaten UConn by a good margin, and lost to Villanova by 12-points, and Florida by 8-points.

When a team has a stellar defense, they have a chance to beat any given elite team. We saw that when Temple led then 5th ranked Maryland by five points at the end of the half, only to lose when they took their defensive pedal off the metal, and two players stupidly jacked up bad shots..

Maybe what Temple accomplished in the St. Joe’s game is an aberration, maybe not. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion and can speculate if such will prove true or not. Maybe you think either WSU or Memphis with Wiseman would have beaten St.Joe’s.by such a wide margin

(12-16-2019 08:11 PM)Miggy Wrote:  

(12-16-2019 03:44 PM)TigerSeth Wrote:  Starting to look like a 2 bid league....need Temple, Houston, and Cindy to step it up.

If Temple beats Miami tomorrow night by a decent margin, it should be on a path toward joining the nation’s elite teams. If they lose, it’s a big set-back.

Miami sucks.

ECU favored by 16 over UMES
Temple an underdog to Miami (FL) by 2.5 points.

(12-17-2019 07:27 AM)ShockerFever Wrote:  

(12-16-2019 08:11 PM)Miggy Wrote:  

(12-16-2019 03:44 PM)TigerSeth Wrote:  Starting to look like a 2 bid league....need Temple, Houston, and Cindy to step it up.

If Temple beats Miami tomorrow night by a decent margin, it should be on a path toward joining the nation’s elite teams. If they lose, it’s a big set-back.

Miami sucks.

Those borderline Q2/Q3 games are the ones that define the Elite for sure!

(12-16-2019 03:25 PM)tharmon15 Wrote:  

(12-15-2019 07:54 PM)Penny1 Wrote:  

(12-15-2019 07:15 PM)OldFan Wrote:  

(12-15-2019 07:01 PM)Stickboy46 Wrote:  

(12-15-2019 06:45 PM)Penny1 Wrote:  Once Wiseman returns from his unfair punishment by the NCAA dictators on January 12, it will be very hard for anyone in this conference to beat us.

Wichita State will be the only with a true shot and that's because when we play them Wiseman won't be able to, and it's at WSU where they hardly ever lose.

But then again, we just snapped the nation's longest home winning streak at 31. So anything is possible.

After watching this teàm grow and mature so fast, I predict a 17-1 conference record for Memphis in the AAC and a Conference championship, a 30-1 overall record and a #1 seed.


There's just nobody in the AAC on the same talent level nor have the depth as this Memphis team does. Wiseman is a generational talent that college basketball rarely sees.

Math doesn't add up... Unless you find a way to get rid of the Oregon loss, finishing 17-1 in conference won't get you to 30-1....

I'd expect 2-3 losses in conference. There will be off days. But 2-3 losses could still mean winning the conference by multiple games. It is sad that Wiseman won't get to play in Wichita though. Wanted to watch that and didn't want any built in excuses if Wichita pulls that off

Sent from my SM-N975U1 using Tapatalk

My guess is that the Tigers will lose at Wichita and probably at Houston, with two other tough road games at Cincy and UConn (we don't play at Temple this year) resulting in a conference record of 16-2, 15-3, or 14-4, and overall 28-3, 27-4, or 26-5.

Have you been paying attention to this team and this conference? They aren't losing 2, 3 or especially 4 in this weak conference this year.

This ain't a Josh Pastner coached team nor is it typical freshmen. These are NBA prospects.

We were NOT supposed to be 9-1 at this point, according to the "experts", because of the Wiseman suspension plus the injury to Quinones. But we're developing, growing, jelling, getting better and winning tough hard fought games, especially in hostile environments. And all without our two best players.

We are overachieving at this point.

Penny is shutting the doubters up about his coaching ability. Some are taking notice and even mentioning him in the COY discussion.

Wait till Quinones and Wiseman return. Nobody will be able to handle us. Hell they can't beat us now!

Dude, you are the biggest homer I have ever seen. Could we only lose one game in conference? Sure. Could we lose 2 or 3 games in conference? Of course. You don’t see how we could shoot horribly and James gets in foul trouble? Basketball is way more unpredictable than what you are sounding like. Just complete homerism.

I think we have the most talent, but we will be getting everyone’s best each night and anything could happen. Good grief.

Penny1 is not real...

He is trolling.